Australian PM Scott Morrison Calls the People “Sheep”


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Australian PM Scott Morrison is promoting forced vaccinations for children and adults while slowly eliminating the unvaccinated population from everyday society. In this clip, Morrison admits to what the politicians have been thinking all along — the Great Unwashed are sheep who are expected to herd to their handler’s (i.e. government’s) demands. “It’s a bit like getting the sheep through the gate,” Morrison laughed as he discussed the ongoing forced vaccination effort. If this is how politicians speak in public, imagine what they are saying about their sheep (voters) in private. Remember PM Scott Morrison’s cold laugh during next year’s election.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

American farmers are struggling to send their goods overseas as the East simply does not want American exports. The Ocean Shipping Reform Act passed in the House last week due to Asian carriers “unfairly decimating against American cargo.” Five major Asian liners have been accused of offloading goods at American ports and returning empty-handed, refusing to take American cargo back with them. The US agriculture industry is highly reliant on California ports that are now described as cargo parking lots as there are not enough workers to offload boats. In addition to these supply chain delays, discrimination against American products is causing countless containers filled with agricultural goods to rot.

“Unfortunately because it’s an oligopoly…. you’ve got to take it or leave it if you’re an American shipper,” Rep. Dusty Johnson noted. “The terms often say that liquidated damages for you canceling a container is $100. Well there can be $100,000 of goods in each container.” Johnson pointed to an issue with a cheese manufacturer in South Dakota who has 2 million pounds of lactose awaiting shipment in a warehouse. That shipment sat on the dock for 75 days, spoiled, and over $25,000 was lost. Johnson also used the example of pork, which is a hot commodity in Asia. Non-frozen pork, in particular, goes for a premium. As a result, producers have been forced to freeze numerous pork shipments to Asia, diluting the profits.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act will go to the Senate before being presented to President Joe Biden. “If you’re going to use this shared infrastructure, you’re going to play fair, and you’re not going to have unprecedented levels of rejection of American cargo – which is what we’re seeing actual rejection a refusal to take this cargo,” Johnson said.

Australia to Quarantine Even Fully Vaccinated Flying to Australia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The joke use to be going Postal because so many postal workers were killing co-workers decades ago. Not they are calling it Going-Australian, meaning they are leading the charge on the most anti-human rights regime in the world. They have matched the Nazis blocking travel even between states. Now they are even saying that FULLY VACCINATED may still have to quarantine for two weeks coming into Australia which will end any dreams of tourism. What they are acknowledging, without admitting it, is that vaccines at the very best may lessen what you contract like a flu shot, but it will NEVER prevent you from getting COVID or spreading it.

People are beginning to see that this has been just an excuse to move toward what their politicians have admitted is a new world order. This has nothing to do with health, but everything to do with social control. The most ruthless state, Victoria, locks you down and requires you to send a photo to prove you are home using facial recognition. This is wholesale imprisonment and may see this as Australia is moving full circle whereas it began as a penal colony. Australia actually did not gain its independence from Britain until March 3rd, 1986. The ECM plotted for Australia shows that its tyrannical regime began with COVID in 2020.56. The first case in Australia was on January 19, 2020, and Victoria imported its first lockdown on March 10, 2020.

There is no way the government will reverse its position. This is all about restricting the total economy, not really about a health crisis. In fact, even the UK-based Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd submitted to the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in Britain which states bluntly that “the MHRA now has more than enough evidence on the Yellow Card system to declare the COVID-19 vaccines unsafe for use in humans.”

Without question, governments are mandating these vaccines and are not concerned about the health of people or the injuries they are causing. Instead, this is the excuse to prevent travel and to ensure that there will be no uprising against the government as they impose Schwab’s Great Reset and the intended default of all government debt.

Senator Joe Manchin Not Convinced to Vote For Massive Build Back Better Spending Bill – Curiously WaPo Launches Investigation of Joe Manchin Finances


Posted originally on the conservative tree house December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 132 Comments

I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

But in a 50-50 Senate where Democrats would need all of their party’s votes to push through the legislation over unanimous Republican opposition, Mr. Manchin’s reluctance to embrace it has helped freeze the measure in place. (read more)

Every article written about the Build Back Better/Social Spending/Green New Deal bill, carries a totally different price tag.   The New York Times says $2.2 trillion.  Politico said $1.6 trillion, and other media like CBS have put the figure around $3 trillion. Regardless, Joe Manchin has reservations about it.

Those reservations have apparently triggered the ‘six ways to Sunday‘ deep state….

(Washington Post) – In Sen. Joe Manchin III’s hilly West Virginia home county, his family’s business has made millions by taking waste coal from long-abandoned mines and selling it to a power plant that emits air pollution at a higher rate than any other plant in the state.

That enterprise could have taken a hit under a key part of President Biden’s climate agenda, a $150 billion plan to push coal plants toward cleaner energy. One lawmaker, though, played a central role in killing that proposal: Manchin, who has earned hundreds of thousands of dollars annually from the family coal company while using his role as a Democratic swing vote in a 50-50 Senate to dictate Biden’s policies.

When pressed about whether he has a conflict of interest, Manchin bristles. “I have been in a blind trust for 20 years. I have no idea what they’re doing,” the senator told reporters in September, referring to his family’s coal firm. “You got a problem?”

But contrary to his public statements, documents filed by the senator show the blind trust is much too small to account for all his reported earnings from the coal company, as of his latest financial disclosure report, which covers 2020 and was filed in May. (read more)

Nice investment portfolio you have there Joe, it’d be a shame if something happened to it.

U.S. Consumer Survey Expectations of Inflation at Least Doubling Wage Gains – Middle Class Storm Building


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 156 Comments

The New York Federal Reserve survey reflects the obvious.  Consumers see staple food and energy price increases far outpacing any wage gains, and the outlook moving forward does not show signs of improvement.

The distance between the inflation line and the wage line is the intensity of the hurricane coming our way.

We are in this very weird place where the politically motivated Fed cannot stop purchasing debt created by legislative spending.  At the same time, the political Fed is going to have to raise interest rates or we will enter an impossible spiral of policy caused inflation.  There are three options:  (1) stop buying debt; (2) increase interest rates; or (3) deploy some COVID mechanism to shut down people and hit the demand side.

Considering that Omicron didn’t work, and further panic pushing does not seem politically viable, that only leaves the two options of the Fed stops buying debt, and/or the Fed raises interest rates. Now, considering that these same political ideologues will not stop pushing the Build Back Better legislative agenda, that means the Fed cannot stop buying debt.  That leaves one option remaining, increase interest rates.

Dec 13 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations pushed higher in November and expectations for future earnings growth dropped, suggesting they anticipate price increases will outpace wage gains at an even faster rate in the near term, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

Prices for food and other goods are rising at the fastest pace since 1982, according to data released by the Labor Department last week, posing political challenges for President Joe Biden’s administration and cementing expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next year.  (read more)

Loyalty – Family or Government?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Police State Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

America’s sweetheart, Dr. Fauci, would like to divide families this holiday season by urging people to ensure their relatives and friends are vaccinated. Fauci said only vaccinated groups should gather so that “vaccinated people can feel comfortable.” So tell your grandfather with the pacemaker to stay home alone this Christmas. Perhaps tell your cousin not to bring her unvaccinated baby too. “That’s the reason why people should, if they invite people over their home, essentially ask and maybe require that people show evidence that they are vaccinated,” Dr. Fauci actually said out loud.

This is exactly what the Stasi did in former East Germany until the Ministry for State Security (Stasi) was abolished in March 1990. The Stasi encouraged people to spy on neighbors, friends, and relatives. Children were expected to turn their parents into the state. Under their premise, your loyalty should stand with the state first and foremost.

Snowden’s leak stated that today’s NSA can compile 5 billion mobile records per day, and 42 billion internet records per month. The FBI recently released a document stating they can hack into iMessage and WhatsApp within 15 minutes. The advancement in technology has paved the way for a police state to control the public far beyond anything the Stasi pulled. The government is not your family.

Inflation Soared to 6.8% in November


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation is soaring with no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation YoY. According to the Labor Department, this is the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982. In addition, Core-CPI rose 0.5% last month, amounting to a 4.9% annual increase, the quickest advancement since 1991.

Energy prices alone have spiked 33.3% in the past year, and gasoline prices are up 58.1%. Over the past 12 months, food and energy prices rose at the most rapid pace in 13 years. Shelter costs, amounting to one-third of CPI, rose 3.8% on an annual basis. This level has not been seen since the 2007 housing crisis wreaked havoc on the US real estate market.

Despite pay increases of 4.8% this year, real hourly earnings decreased 1.9% over the past 12-months. Service costs rose at the fastest pace since 2007 as well, advancing 3.4% over the past year. Apparel costs are also up by 5% since last November. Everywhere you look, prices are drastically rising.

Overall, the cost of living is astronomical. Basic necessities such as food and shelter price increases have caused more middle-class Americans to begin living paycheck to paycheck. The Federal Reserve claimed it would step in if inflation reached an unsustainable level. A 6.8% increase is unsustainable, inflation is not transitory, and neither the government nor the Fed has made a valid effort to control this growing problem.

Semiconductor Shortage Hurting Smartphone Industry


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin. Thank you for your work. The chip and supply shortage has not improved. I live in America outside a major city. My cellular device failed at the beginning of November so I ordered a replacement directly from Samsung. Best Buy and my cellular provider were both out of the phone I was seeking, and I went to around five stores. Shipping from Samsung was supposed to take a bit over a week, then two weeks, and now the ETA is in January. The stores I went into had Apple iPhones but not Androids. Frustrating.

REPLY: Now is an unfortunate time to need a new phone. Numerous original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reported failing to secure crucial parts this year due to semiconductor shortages. Counterpoint Research lowered their forecast of global smartphone shipments from 1.45 billion units to 1.41 billion. Their study further suggests that smartphone OEMs only received 80% of the crucial components they need this year to manufacture phones during the second half of the year.

Samsung completely canceled their Galaxy Note series this year as they knew they would not be able to obtain the components. “Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi have all been affected and we are lowering our forecasts. But Apple seems to be the most resilient and least affected by the AP (application processor) shortage situation,” Tom Kang, a researcher with Counterpoint reported in October. Kang’s research did not indicate why Apple was more immune to the chip shortage. Numerous companies are racing to produce highly in-demand chips, but it will take time for manufacturing to begin.

Sunday Talk Warning, Mohamed El-Erian Concedes His Economic Views Are Now Contingent Upon Climate Change Driving Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments

Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.

If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.

Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.

In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring.  That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022.   If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.

  • Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
  • December 2021 bread is $4.00  (25% increase over 2020)
  • June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021.  Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.

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Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021.  That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.

  • Example-2:  December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
  • December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
  • June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc

.

The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.

Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase.  The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.

When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.

As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.

Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.

Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.

Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.

The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time.  COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.

Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.

Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.

The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation.  Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished.  This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.  This is the fundamental change part.

It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law.   At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters.  That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.

I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.

Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street.  The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.

I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.

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New Zealand’s Tobacco Industry to Become Obsolete


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Dec 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

New Zealand plans to make the tobacco industry obsolete among future generations. Associate Health Minister Dr. Ayesha Verrall announced plans to pass the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan, with the goal of eliminating tobacco in the country in the next four years. As a result, cigarette companies will be prohibited from advertising in New Zealand. When the law goes into effect, teenagers under the age of 14 will never have the ability to purchase legal tobacco in their lifetimes. In addition, the majority of controversial flavored e-cigarettes aside from mint, menthol, and tobacco were banned in August as they are said to appeal to the youth.

The government is also taking measures to help older generations quit by gradually reducing nicotine content in cigarettes and removing filters. Currently, 8,000 retailers have the ability to sell tobacco products in the nation, but that will be reduced to only 500 locations. In four years, the only cigarettes available will contain a very low level of nicotine before they are phased out completely.

Verrall claims the move will save New Zealand $5 billion in healthcare costs. According to estimates, the average smoker in New Zealand spends $238 per week on cigarettes, amounting to $12,400 annually. The move will make New Zealand’s tobacco industry the most restricted in the world, behind Bhutan where cigarette products are prohibited entirely. However, tobacco sales compose around 40% of total convenience retail revenue in the nation. Opponents say that prohibition has never worked, and the ban will lead to an unregulated black market. Small dairies (i.e., grocery stores) are upset over the law as it will deplete much of their revenue, and the government has said it will not step in to bail out businesses affected by the mandate.