Consumers Spend More on Less


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Consumer spending, a main indication of the nation’s economic health, has remained strong despite rising inflation. Personal spending increased 0.9% in April, while March’s figure was revised to 1.4%. Obviously, people have been spending more on less due to sky-high prices. May’s figure will be released later in the week, but American businesses are noticing a decrease in clients.

Retail sales declined for the first time this year in May by -0.3%, despite the talking heads expecting a 0.8% rise. None of these numbers are adjusted for inflation because they do not want the public to see how bad the situation has become.

CPI rose 1% in May, up 0.3% from the month prior, but Americans are spending on the essentials. Shelter, gas, and food were the largest contributors, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index rose 8.6% in May, the largest increase since December 1981. Energy prices rose 34.6% over the last year, while food prices soared 10.1%, marking the highest prices since March 1981.

Americans are traveling less due to increased costs, as flight bookings dropped 2.3% from May to April. Travel costs, in general, has risen by over 30% YoY, and the average person may opt to forego this luxury expense. Keep in mind that the travel and hospitality industry has already been struggling for three years. Salons, restaurants, and all businesses have been forced to raise their prices, and consumers are beginning to see a decline in bookings across the US. The average consumer is simply spending on the necessities to keep afloat while items outside of food, shelter, and gas are rapidly becoming luxuries.

Tour de Rehoboth Beach


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Some may miss the “mean tweets” and lower prices of, well, everything under the former administration. Former President Trump commented on Biden’s latest tumble after he fell off his bicycle while riding in his home state of Delaware. “I will never, ever, ride a bicycle!” Trump proclaimed to a crowd that erupted with laughter.

Trump said that the president should be more concerned with nuclear warming rather than global warming as tensions with the East continue to rise and pose an immediate threat to our safety.

This comes after Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre refused to answer a question about the president’s mental and physical health. Worsening matters, far-left reporter Don Lemon, notoriously friendly to the Biden regime, was the one asking questions. Lemon insisted after the interview that the public should be aware of the president’s “health, history, both physically and mentally,” as he is making decisions that impact the lives of millions. Jean-Pierre insists that Biden will run again in the 2024 election, but his own party members and now the media are openly questioning whether Biden is fit for the job.

2022 Primary Election Runoffs, Alabama, Georgia, Virginia and Arkansas – Results and Open Discussion Thread


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 21, 2022 | Sundance

Primary election contests continue today in Alabama, Georgia, Virginia and Arkansas with run-off elections.

One of the key contests people are watching is Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama, a six-term congressman, facing Trump-endorsed Katie Britt in a runoff election for the Alabama senate seat.  President Trump rescinded his endorsement of Mr. Brooks earlier this year and endorsed Ms. Britt.

New York Times Election Results Here

CNN Election Results Here

Politico Election Results Here

Russian Ruble Becomes World’s Best Performing Currency, Reaches Seven Year High Against Dollar Despite Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 21, 2022 | Sundance

The New York Times reported this.  There is a certain irony in the New York Times outlining the consequences of the U.S. led sanctions are essentially that western governments and NATO countries are essentially punishing themselves with continued sanctions against Russia.  Then again, the WEF coalition doesn’t really seem to care as long as they can continue chasing their Build Back Better agenda.

(Via New York Times) – The ruble cemented its unlikely status as the world’s best-performing currency, rising to new multiyear highs this week. Since collapsing in the weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered sweeping international sanctions aimed at crippling the Russian economy, the ruble has come roaring back.

On Tuesday, it traded at its strongest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2015. It has gained about 35 percent so far this year, beating every major currency, and has more than doubled from its post-invasion low.

[…] Higher earnings from oil and gas exports, which have surged as prices rise and demand in Asia makes up for cutbacks in Europe, have kept the ruble elevated. At the same time, Russian imports have fallen sharply, partly the result of many foreign companies pulling out of Russia, which also support the ruble. (read more)

“More Americans believe that it would be better for them for Biden to be removed (56 percent) than Putin (43 percent).” {Poll DATA}

Biden Says White House Needs More Money for Next Pandemic


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 21, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today, touting vaccines for babies and children 6months through 5 years of age, Joe Biden explained they needed more taxpayer money to give to pharmaceutical lobbyists to pay for vaccines and organize the next pandemic. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

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We The People are in an abusive relationship with Joe Biden’s government.

White House Begins Engineering Narrative that Biden Policy U.S. Food Shortages are Fault of Vladimir Putin


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 21, 2022

The current White House Press Secretary, Karine Jeanne-Pierre, is hopelessly over her head and does not possess the intellectual or professional skills to articulate clear policy or answer questions.  Her professional inability is brutally obvious, yet political correctness dictates everyone is supposed to pretend not to notice.  In a weird way she is a perfect representation of the Biden White House.  Jeanne-Pierre is the Kamala Harris of Hank ‘tippy guam’ Johnsons.

That said, the White House is using former Pentagon spokesperson, and current National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, as a crutch to support Jeanne-Pierre until enough time passes and the permanent switch can take place without backlash from the media and left-wing cultural police.   Narrative engineering is a tenuous business and relies upon media pretense to continue.

With the shortage of infant formula still visible as an example of Biden incompetence, today the White House began selling a proactive strategic communication message in advance of looming food shortages.  {Direct Rumble Link} Yes, you guess it, the advanced position of the Biden administration is that the future U.S. food shortages are Vladimir Putin’s fault.

Apparently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has the ability to drive up U.S. inflation, explode U.S. energy costs, increase gasoline prices, influence global agriculture, weaken U.S. oil refining capability, disrupt availability of diesel fuel, impede the transportation of U.S. goods, force municipal energy companies to raise prices, cancel airline flights, stop the manufacturing of infant formula and now block the production -and increase the cost- of food in North America.

It’s worth noting how John Kirby says NATO and the western allies can deliver thousands of tons of heavy weapons and arms into Ukraine from western Europe without issue; however, the western allies cannot get thousands of tons of grain and foodstuffs out of Ukraine.   I digress.  The propaganda around World War Reddit is remarkable.

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If you follow the trajectory, perhaps the White House will now claim Vladimir Putin is the reason why we need to start eating bugs.

Supreme Court Rules State and Local Government Cannot Ban Faith-Based Schools from Public Funding


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 21, 2022

A major win for parents and school choice today in a 6-3 decision from the Supreme Court [pdf Ruling Here].  The high court ruled that Maine violated the Constitution by refusing to make public funds available for students to attend faith-based schools.  The ruling is broad and makes it clear when any state and/or local government choose to subsidize private schools or provide vouchers for school choice, they must allow families pay for religious schools.

Teachers’ unions, left-wing indoctrination institutions and the media are not happy with the Supreme Court decision.  The ruling now makes it possible for state or local school vouchers to be used for private, faith-based schools.  Those schools also have religious exemptions on the types of material and educators they allow in their education programs.

In the bigger picture the court has again affirmed ‘freedom of religion‘ not ‘freedom from religion‘.  Parents who wish their children to receive a moral and virtuous education should not be blocked by state and local politicians who promote sexualization of children, immoral conduct and alternative lifestyles for kids.  SCOTUS BLOG has background details including the dissent:

SCOTUS BLOG: – […] The dispute before the court in Carson v. Makin began as a challenge to the system that Maine uses to provide a free public education to school-aged children. In some of the state’s rural and sparsely populated areas, school districts opt not to run their own secondary schools. Instead, they choose one of two options: sending students to other public or private schools that the district designates, or paying tuition at the public or private school that each student selects. But in the latter case, state law allows government funds to be used only at schools that are nonsectarian – that is, schools that do not provide religious instruction.

Two Maine families went to court, arguing that the exclusion of schools that provide religious instruction violates the First Amendment’s free exercise clause. On Tuesday, the justices agreed. Roberts suggested that the court’s decision was an “unremarkable” application of prior decisions in two other recent cases (both of which Roberts wrote): Trinity Lutheran Church v. Comer, in which the justices ruled that Missouri could not exclude a church from a program to provide grants to non-profits to install playgrounds made from recycled tires, and Espinoza v. Montana Department of Revenue, holding that if states opt to subsidize private education, they cannot exclude private schools from receiving those funds simply because they are religious.

In this case, Roberts explained, Maine pays tuition for some students to attend private schools, as “long as the schools are not religious.” “That,” Roberts stressed, “is discrimination against religion.” It does not matter, Roberts continued, that the Maine program was intended to provide students with the equivalent of a free public education, which is secular. The focus of the program, Roberts reasoned, is providing a benefit – tuition to attend a public or private school – rather than providing the equivalent of the education that students would receive in public schools. Indeed, Roberts observed, private schools that are eligible for the tuition benefit are not required to use the same curriculum as public schools, or even to use certified teachers. He suggested that the state’s argument was circular: “Saying that Maine offers a benefit limited to private secular education is just another way of saying that Maine does not extend tuition assistance payments to parents who choose to educate their children at religious schools.”

Roberts similarly rejected the state’s argument that the tuition-assistance program does not violate the Constitution because it only bars benefits from going to schools that provide religious instruction. Although Trinity Lutheran and Espinoza focused on organizations’ religious status (rather than on whether the organizations would be using government funds for religious purposes), those rulings did not hold that states could make funding for private schools hinge on whether the schools provide religious instruction, Roberts explained. To the contrary, Roberts indicated, there is no real distinction between a school’s religious status and its use of funds for religious purposes.

Roberts also dismissed any suggestion that Tuesday’s ruling would require the state to fund religious education. Maine has other options to eliminate its need to fund private schools, Roberts noted: It could, for example, create more public schools or improve transportation to public schools. But having chosen to provide public funding for private schools, Roberts concluded, “it cannot disqualify some private schools solely because they are religious.” (read more)

Actual physical barriers are what it takes in 2022 to stop the violent left-wing democrats from attacking the Supreme Court.  Think about what that reality showcases about the state of our union.  There is a particular hypocrisy considering the J6 committee narrative “democracy under attack.” 

Gun Control Advocates


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Jun 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Zelenskyy Officially Bans Ukraine’s Largest Opposition Political Party


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 20, 2022 | Sundance 

The definition of the modern “western democracy” in Ukraine is increasingly showcased as the goal for modern totalitarian government.

The inflection point away from representative democracy was first evident in the way COVID-19 was leveraged by “western” governments in the U.S, Canada, Australia and the European Union.  Totalitarian minded leaders within those democracies, including governors in the United States, began operating without any elected representative feedback. Everything shifted from legislative representation to a system of dictatorial fiats with no opposition allowed in the arbitrary rules and regulations.

From forced lockdowns and arbitrary determinations of “essential workers,” various western government leaders were drunk on their new power.  Those who were already predisposed to the benefits of communism (aka Justin Trudeau) and various shades therein, dropped all pretense of believing there were limits to their power and began dispatching opposition views.

It did not take long before we saw things escalate into lockdowns, travel bans, forced business closures, quarantine camps and ultimately forced vaccinations and checkpoints for transit.  Collectively, none of these efforts ever went before a representative body for debate and consent; they were done through brute force and power of a top-down centralized authoritarian government.  It did not seem as if most people realized how ‘western democracy’ changed overnight through the use of the pandemic.

What we see taking place in Ukraine is an outcropping of this newly defined ‘western democracy.’   Using a declaration of emergency power, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now banned all opposition voices, taken control of broadcast media and now today banned the second largest political party in Ukraine. [Radio Free Europe Link]

Ukraine’s Opposition Platform For Life (OPPL) was the second largest political force in the Ukraine Parliament.  As of today, the party is officially banned by a Ukrainian court at the request of the Zelenskyy Ministry of Justice.   All assets, funds and property belonging to OPPL have been seized and transferred to the state.

“The court satisfied the claims of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine: the activities of the Political party Opposition Platform – For Life were banned; the funds and other assets of the party, its regional, city, district organizations, primary organizations and other structural entities were transferred to the ownership of the state,” the statement reads.

As Ukrainian News Agency reported, the Cabinet of Ministers proposes to the Verkhovna Rada that the ban on the party be the basis for depriving the mandate of members of local councils. (link)

More from Reuters – KYIV (Reuters) – A Ukrainian court has banned a pro-Russian party led by a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the justice ministry said on Monday.  It said the court in the western city of Lviv had decided to transfer to the state all property, funds and other assets held by the “Opposition Platform – For Life” party led by Viktor Medvedchuk, a wealthy businessman accused of treason. (read more)

NATO Begins Land Blockade of Russian Enclave of Kaliningrad, Little Russia, in an Effort to Provoke Further Conflict


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 20, 2022 | Sundance

Kaliningrad is an enclave of Russia on the Baltic Sea, with a population of around 450,000 Russians.  Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO countries Lithuania to the north and Poland to the south.

Land access for Russia to Kaliningrad is a matter of treaties between Russia and Lithuania providing transit to the Russian enclave through Suwalski gap where railroads connect Kaliningrad to Belarus.

In an intentionally provocative move, the NATO alliance has now decided to use Lithuania to cut off access to Kaliningrad by land.  The NATO alliance is saying this is part of their execution of economic sanctions against Russia by stopping the transport of goods and products through the Suwalski gap.

The blockade began today, and the Russian government is evaluating how to respond to this aggressive effort against Kaliningrad.

This action is being taken as the same time as EU NATO countries are threatening to rush NATO membership for Ukraine into place.  There is no other way to look at this decision by NATO member states as anything except a deliberate effort to increase the likelihood of war between Russia and the western alliance.

(Via Daily Mail) – The Kremlin has threatened Lithuania after EU-sanctioned goods were blocked from reaching the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, fuelling fears of NATO being dragged into the war.

Moscow warned of ‘very tough actions’ against the Western security alliance member after deliveries of coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology were stopped from entering the Russian territory. The Lithuanian chargé d’affaires in Moscow was told that unless cargo transit was resumed in the near future, Russia reserves the right to act to protect its national interests.

The Russian foreign ministry said: ‘We consider provocative measures of the Lithuanian side which violate Lithuania’s international legal obligations, primarily the 2002 Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the European Union on transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation, to be openly hostile.’

Loyalist senator Andrey Klimov warned it was ‘direct aggression against Russia, literally forcing us to immediately resort to proper self-defence’.

The head of the parliamentary sovereignty protection commission, he vowed that Russia would solve the blockade ‘in ANY way we choose’.

Any direct Russian attack on alliance member state Lithuania would be seen as an act of war against NATO and could spark a world war.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said his country was simply implementing sanctions imposed by the EU.

He said the measures implemented were taken after ‘consultation with the European Commission and under its guidelines.’

‘Sanctioned goods (will) no longer be allowed to transit Lithuanian territory,’ Landsbergis added.

The foreign ministry emphasised it has not imposed ‘unilateral, individual or additional’ restrictions.

But Russia disagrees, with Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying: ‘This decision is really unprecedented. It’s a violation of everything.’ (read more)

The western motive to provoke a war between NATO and Russia is transparent.  In addition to the geopolitical ideology of the West against the country of Russia, the economic situation created by the Western alliance is tenuous.

Inflation is raging in all of the countries who followed the instructions of the World Economic Forum and the massive spending demanded within the pandemic response.  The economies of the EU and the United States are now reflecting the results of those multinational corporation instructions known more colloquially as the Build Back Better agenda.

The Ukraine conflict is now being used as a cover story, an arbitrary justification, as politicians in Western government claim the Russian intervention into Eastern Ukraine is the source of the global economic problem.  This is a false claim; however, it is being emphasized in a way that indicates fear on the part of the WEF member nation group, to the consequences of the economic damage now surfacing.

Traditionally, only two economic issues have ever been successful in stopping a large global recession: (1) war, and/or (2) housing starts.  The approaches of the central banks, including the U.S. Federal reserve, have precluded housing starts from having any value to stop the global recession.  That leaves ‘WAR’.

This is a very dangerous time as the Western alliance, driven by NATO following a predictable plan, is now positioning for an intentional war with Russia.

Strategically, Kaliningrad is to Russia as Alaska is to the United States.  How would the United States respond if Canada blocked access to Alaska?

We are closer to a direct NATO conflict with Russia than ever before, and we are in this moment because Western government want that conflict.

The U.S. State Department, not the Pentagon, is leading us and the Western alliance into this war….  These are very dangerous moves.

(Reuters) – […]  “If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests,” it said.

Kaliningrad, formerly the port of Koenigsberg, capital of East Prussia, was captured from Nazi Germany by the Red Army in April 1945 and ceded to the Soviet Union after World War Two. It is sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania. (read more)