Black Friday – A Key Weekend for Retailers


Posted originally on Nov 24, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Recession

Retailers have been preparing for Black Friday and Cyber Monday all year. The tradition of post-Thanksgiving shopping has spread internationally with companies throughout the world promoting special sales. The National Federation of Retailers in America predicts that 2023 will be one of the busiest shopping holidays in the nation’s history.

Around 182 million shoppers are expected to make purchases from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking a 15.7 million uptick from 2022. This also marks the highest estimate since the organization began compiling data in 2017. Despite inflation, 61% of 8,424 respondents to a poll said the deals presented are too good to pass on.

The bulk of spending is expected to occur on Black Friday with 130.7 million participants, followed by Cyber Monday which is expected to attract 71.1 million shoppers. Half of shoppers will be searching for presents for the upcoming holidays. In total, retail spending in November and December will reach up to $966.6 billion.

“The Thanksgiving holiday weekend marks some of the busiest shopping days of the year, as consumers enjoy the tradition of shopping for the perfect gifts for friends and loved ones,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers have been preparing for months for this occasion. They are stocked and ready to help customers find the gifts and other items they want at great prices during the entire holiday season.”

Although consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of GDP, the majority of Americans are living off of credit due to record inflation. So while people are spending during this 5-day holiday in anticipation of tomorrow’s price being higher, consumer spending at this point in time merely adds to the private debt crisis sweeping the nation.

We’ve Got The Tapes (Ep. 2134) – 11/20/2023


Posted originally on Rumble By Dan Bongino: Nov 20, 11:00 am EST

Capitol Police were giving handshakes to protesters.


Posted originally on Rumble By Terrence K Williams on: Nov 18 9:00 PM EST

Interview: Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Watch the video above or click here to watch my latest interview with Goldseek Radio.

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.

Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”

– Epic gold breakout ahead!
– Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts?
– Comments on crude oil.
– On the cusp of WWIII by 2025?
– How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite.
– Might societal decay accelerate?
– Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse.
– 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.

A Peaceful NY Protest with an End Goal


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Maryland Resident Sworn in as Senator From California


Posted originally on the CTH on October 3, 2023 | Sundance 

In this short video below, Maryland resident and advocate for female, black, lesbian, abortion and union priorities, Ms. Laphonza Butler, is sworn in by Senate President Kamala Harris as the next progressive Senator from California.

Do not miss the very end of the video, where the entire Senate erupts in cheers, applause and a standing ovation.  WATCH:

The institutions have collapsed.

Broken Arrow!

Get comfortable being uncomfortable.

A Strong Possibility Twitter Will IPO and Go Public Again, Here’s Why


Posted originally on the CTH on October 3, 2023 | Sundance 

I wasn’t going to write about this, but so many requests and contacts have come in, and considering that my background conversations with people are leading to actionable positioning, that I feel it is only fair to share publicly what I am analyzing privately.

The predicate for all assumptions is several fold: {Go Deep One} and {Go Deep Two}. Most of the financial groundwork for analysis already exists. In summary, Elon paid $44 billion for the platform. Current valuations are around $15 billion.  Current debt service is $1.5 billion/yr (roughly $100m/mo).  Current expenses include $100m/yr AWS, $100m/yr Goog cloud (both contracts), +payroll and misc.

Approximately 9 months ago, Musk had $1 billion in cash reserve for Twitter.  The burn rate deficit was roughly $100m/month. That put timeline estimates for an inflection point on/around October 2023.  It is now October 2023.

Approximately a week ago, Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino made a bold statement.  Yaccarino stated that from her review of the current status, Twitter would start to turn a profit in the first quarter of 2024 {link}.  However, with $100 million per month in debt service alone, this statement seemed too far of a stretch.  At pre-musk levels of revenue, maybe; but that $1.5 billion debt service is a heavy nut to carry.

Timing – Remember, it’s October.  Last Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave special regulatory approval to Bill Ackman’s firm, Pershing Square (hedge fund), for a new investment vessel called SPARC, whose purpose is to invest in private companies in order to take them public.  As noted by CNBC, “In a SPARC, investors will know what company the financing vehicle would be used to merge with before they have to pledge their investments.”  The financial mechanism avoids some of the issues with typical IPO’s.

•It’s October, inflection time.  •Yaccarino says a strategy is underway for profitability in Q1 2024.  •Ackman gets SPARC approval, and then suddenly:

[…] “The answer is I have a lot of respect for Musk. I think Twitter is a really important platform,” Ackman told CNBC. “I think he’s made tremendous improvements to the platform, and I think it’s a unique, very difficult-to-disrupt, kind of asset and one that could grow.” 

[…] Though Musk hasn’t expressed any interest in working with Ackman to take X public, and despite the $13 billion in debt tacked to the company, Ackman has worked out a loose plan to make it happen, if Musk were interested. 

“What’s interesting here is we could commit $2 billion to a transaction, set the rights price to $121 million, set it at $100 a share and announce a transaction,” he said. 

“And then we tell the story and then the rights holders have a chance to decide whether to invest. As long as the rights have positive value, they’re all going to get exercised, and the IPO raises $13 billion.” (read more)

The heavy nut disappears.

Investors roll the debt into discounted shares of stock.  If Ackman can generate a $17-$20 billion outcome for Twitter, Musk nets $5b and retains 20-25% of shares.  Yaccarino gets well compensated.  It’s a win/win/win.

Critics would say the IPO would mean Musk compromising on the free speech commitment.  However, in reality Musk has already reinstalled many of the control mechanisms of the previous “safety council,” along with the “freedom of speech, not freedom of reach” outlook.  Musk and Yaccarino have also partnered with the Global Disinformation Index.

The compromises are already baked into the platform, and seemingly have been since Yaccarino became CEO.  The 2024 election is next year, and influence is a lucrative business.

Frances Fox Piven vs. Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell (Video 1980)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized R-Posted Sep 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Maria Bartiromo Attempts Cleanup Saying, “Democracy Is Messy” – Matt Gaetz Has Hit a Nerve


Posted originally on the CTH on September 25, 2023 | Sundance 

Yesterday, Maria Bartiromo was very visibly entrenched in her effort to defend House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from the criticism of Representative Matt Gaetz.  During the combative interview, Ms. Bartiromo showed a transparent agenda to support the professionally Republican GOPe perspective.

Today, following a considerable amount of backlash, and eyes-wide-open to the motives and intents of Bartiromo, she attempts cleanup by repeating the phrase, “democracy is messy” as a justification for her support of McCarthy Inc. The video of her effort today is below; however, before getting to that cleanup effort, let me just explain why Gaetz is majority correct on the bigger picture.

The House Government Weaponization Committee is a complete sham – a ruse, a sound stage of actors and political performers who have no intention on actually exposing the government weaponization.   Gaetz focused on the failures of the House Oversight Committee (chaff and countermeasures committee) and gave examples of how they never subpoenaed Hunter Biden as one clear indicator of their intent. I have written about this extensively {GO DEEP}, and the Oversight committee’s lack of action is not even close to a surprise, regardless of whether McCarthy and Bartiromo want to keep pretending.

The bigger let down is found in the lack of action by the Govt Weaponization Committee.  Let me explain how simple this is to see using an example I shared with former congressman Devin Nunes.   Sometimes litmus tests really are good for this purpose. The problem we have is accepting the reality of what they mean.

Back in February 2019, around the time when Bill Barr came into the picture, everyone was excited about the potential for accountability. An honest investigation that would reveal and expose the corrupt nature of the DC system, so that a public would be aware, accountability would be metered, and a total restructuring of the corrupt systems could take place.  I was not one of those people.

I accept the visibility of corruption through the prism of simple questions.  Everyone knew Robert Mueller was installed as a tool to cover up the preexisting corruption and simultaneously keep Trump under attack.  No one in Washington DC did not know this.  Everyone knew.  Despite that non-pretending admission and reality, not a single person ever said the Mueller probe was a farce.  Not a single congressional member ever dared say Robert Mueller was part of the corrupt system.

Instead, every single DC participant, politician and Trump appointee, said Robert Mueller was an “honorable man.”  He wasn’t, and they all knew that.

You cannot be an honorable man with the intent of delivering a corrupt and fraudulent outcome.  These two things are not compatible.  Yet, they all collectively pushed that bullshit opinion for two+ years, including Bill Barr.

Once you understand the dynamic inside that simple and honest Robert Mueller litmus test, a litmus test this is still very valid to this day, then you realize the scale of the corruption we are talking about.  It’s either active, passive or willfully blind corruption; but regardless of variety it’s all still corruption.

There seems to be a willful blindness on the part of the American people, a chosen refusal to acknowledge the implications of the unAmerican and unConstititional behaviors, actions and outcomes we are being served on a daily basis.

It can no longer be presumed to be a matter of, “I can’t see what’s happening”, because a whole lot of normal Americans really are clean and articulate.

I can’t see it”,  just doesn’t cut it.

NONSENSE!  Most people can see it.  Most are just choosing to reconcile the irreconcilable, because it is more comforting to ignore the truth of it.  Just be honest.  For many people avoidance has become a survival mechanism.

It’s more along the lines of, “I see what’s happening, but it’s scary and complicated and confusing, and if I admit that I see it, I will become responsible in a way that I am not if I keep pretending I can’t see it or hear it or maybe I don’t understand it.”

Kevin McCarthy’s Lucy has unlimited footballs.

Admit it or keep pretending.

The choices are ours.

Personally, I will not pretend.

If we all stop pretending, eventually the DC house of cards collapses.

So that sets the cornerstone.  Now, let’s move forward almost 4 years.  [DEEP BREATH]  Now we have the House Select Committee to Investigate the Weaponization of Government.  They’ve had some hearings on Twitter Files, they’ve had some hearings on other ancillary matters, but absolutely nothing has come from it.

Before outlining the simple ‘how do I know this is futile’, the nerve that Matt Gaetz touches so necessarily, let me first be brutally honest.

Jim Jordan is corrupt.

Jordan is corrupt; not in a way of lying, cheating or stealing, but rather corrupt in the same familiar manner that generates all of the frustration we feel. Corrupt in the sense of satiating the masses while being disingenuous in the extreme of creating ZERO accountability.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy uses Jim Jordan for exactly this institutional preservation purpose, and Jordan knows it…. and willingly goes along with it…. and willingly plays the role of “anger manager” on behalf of his leadership.

The “how” is simple.  If the Govt Weaponization Committee was not futile, or created simply to satiate a mass of angry conservative/MAGA voters, they would be taking simple actions to expose the issues.

SIMPLE ACTIONS – Like holding depositions and questioning people we know are Deep State actors who construct the weaponized processes.  Holding depositions to ask very simple and pragmatic questions of people like Mary McCord, John Carlin, ICIG Michael Atkinson, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Tashina Guahar, or any member of the Robert Mueller special counsel like Andrew Weissmann, Brandon Van Grack, Aaron Zebly, Jeannie Rhee, etc.  Or Mark Elias, Glenn Simpson, Nellie Ohr, Bruce Ohr, or even former SSCI Security Director James Wolfe.

The House Govt Weaponization committee could issue subpoenas to anyone and everyone who was a participant in all of the previously known corrupt endeavors, questioned them with very specific questions about all of the known activity that stemmed from within those corrupt practices…. and then simply PUBLISH THE TRANSCRIPTS.

Imagine the newsworthy discussion, even if it was ignored by mainstream media, as a result of each deposition transcript being released every 48 hours providing a detailed and documented, under oath, attestation to the activity that took place and is still taking place.  Imagine the scale of sunlight that simple process would provide.  Imagine the tremors in DC as each participant showed up to deliver their statements under oath.

This is not a complicated process, but they want us to pretend it is.

When Matt Gaetz articulated the simple process of putting each appropriations bill on the floor for a funding vote, it too is not a complicated process.  However, the Kevin McCarthy’s, Jim Jordan’s and Maria Bartiromo’s would like us to pretend that it is.

I do not know if Matt Gaetz is the worthy Ty Cobb of Republican politics or not, but I do know he is currently one of the only people that is not pretending.  That elevates him in my view.   Oh sure, he’ll probably acquiesce to the pressures and sell out just like the rest of them, but right now – in his best form – Matt Gaetz has dropped the pretense, and that has sent the machinery of the DC Republican system into fits of apoplexy.  Good.

I’m at the point of frustration with this nonsense where apoplexy, anger and visible ‘losing their shit’ makes me smile.

Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never return to that moment in the performance when you did not see them.

Here’s Bartiromo trying to hide the strings…

This Is What They Planned All Along (Ep. 2094) – 09/22/2023


The Dan Bongino Show Posted originally on Rumble  on:Sep 22, 11:00 am EDT