Brazil into 2025


Posted originally on Dec 18, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Brazil Real Y Tech 12 17 24

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Like so many others, I cannot express my gratitude for creating Socrates. You provide forecasting for the entire world. In Brazil, Socrates has been a light in the middle of darkness. Our central bank has had to intervene four times, desperately trying to prevent the collapse of our currency, as we see nothing but soaring budget deficits. We are witnessing the wholesale spread across assets. Our government dollar bonds are declining despite being denominated in the US dollar. Our hopeless president, who the West cheered, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed new income tax breaks alongside a plan to cut over $11 billion in spending last month. Lula has no idea about the economy.

Could you please comment on Brazil as we go, so does South America?

Enzo

ANSWER: It is so important to look at the entire world. We are all connected. However, looking at the array for South America it does not suggest that everyone will follow Brazil. Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue its advance into 2025. I would be concerned about the May/June time period next year. We are looking at the collapse of socialism. The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences ever since the US dollar reversed direction and was projecting going into 2025 for a major high. Bolsonaro is ahead of da Silva in the polls for the next 2026 election. It certainly appears that the US dollar will rally into 2025, impacting your 2026 election.

BRICS 2
Brazil 1 real

A year-end closing above 5.98, which the market is trading above currently, should confirm a new high for the dollar into 2025. Looking into next year, the overhead resistance will stand at 6.31, 6.79, and 7.27. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS. The collapse of their currency files in the face of propaganda about how the BRICS will kill the dollar. They lack the economy and certainly the financial capability. As you mentioned, they had to issue debt in dollars to raise money. As the dollar rallies, those emerging markets that issued dollar-denominated debt are being pushed closer and closer to default in 2025.

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Volkswagen Protests Heat Up


Posted originally on Dec 13, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume was booed by a crowd of 20,000 employees after stating that the company is not “operating in a fantasy world.” The company already saw 100,000 union members walkout on Monday. “As management we’re not operating in a fantasy world. We are making decisions in a rapidly changing environment,” Blume stated. But the fantasy of climate change is indeed what the company is operating under.

Blume said that Volkswagen must begin to offload vehicles to Chinese consumers. Why would Chinese consumers by a European EV when they can purchase a Chinese model for a fraction of the cost? I recently discussed how even American auto CEOs were praising the technological advances of Chinese EVs. China was once a large market for Germany’s auto exports but that has changed since the government applied countless regulations in the name of climate change.

Then Volkswagen had its emissions scandal where it falsified emissions testing to sell to US consumers. I wrote in 2015: “This event appears to highlight the turning point of 2015.75; in hindsight, we will probably look back at this turning point as the start of a serious economic decline that will strike Europe’s biggest economy. The German car industry is the largest and what is unraveling is a taint upon all German cars, which is unfair. This involved diesel only. Nonetheless, things are never always fair.”

Now the company is looking to cut pay for 120,000 workers. Operating profits have fallen by 11.4% and they simply cannot continue producing these EVs at the same pace they were producing dreaded fuel-powered cars because the demand is not there. The government is actively preventing the auto industry from flourishing. It is a fantasy to believe that the German auto industry can continue adhering to the country’s climate change objectives that believe it can reduce carbon emissions by 65% within the next 5 years.

Yet another reason why the entire European Union is facing a recession. Germany is the bread and butter of the EU – the economic powerhouse. You had 17% of all GDP in Germany derived from the auto industry in 2023, and now the nation’s top auto manufacturer is struggling to make a profit.

China was a key player for Germany. Germany sold 241,000 vehicles to China in 2023, marking a large portion of its market share at a value of €15.1 billion. Auto suppliers were able to sell some €11.2 billion to China last year. Currently, one in five cars on the road in China have been manufactured in Germany. Yet, China’s own auto industry grew 156% over a two-year period from 2021 to 2023 after exporting 4.14 million vehicles last year. China is not adhering to the climate change agenda, and those same regulations derived from fictional data are not strangling China’s energy-dependent sectors.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz called China a “systemic rival,” but he failed to acknowledge the government’s role in stifling the private sector. The German Chamber of Commerce in China conducted a study this past September that revealed half of the 566 surveyed businesses planned to invest more heavily into China. Only 2% said they would be willing to sell off their Chinese operations, and 7% said they were considering a move away from China. Instead of working on open trade, all of the Western nations have deemed China an unfriendly nation to be wary of.

The move to end climate change is fundamentally driving a stake through the very heart of the German economy and therefore the entire EU. The mercantile economic model will continue to collapse under the fantasy world of climate change. While they may not reduce their carbon footprint, the Germany economy is certainly on track to reduce its economic footprint in the years ahead.

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Women Prohibited From Self-Defense in Germany?


Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

German Refugees

The migrant crisis in Europe is far worse than the mainstream media will let on. It began in 2015 when then Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the door to Syrian refugees. That door has remained open, and a new wave of unaccompanied men who do not understand or respect Western women have made the country a dangerous place to live or even travel.

A 20-year-old American woman traveling alone in Germany was sexually assaulted by a 64-year-old Eritrean migrant at Kaiserslautern train station. After exchanging words, the woman pulled out a knife and struck her attacker with a fatal blow to the heart. She claims she was acting on pure instinct, and video surveillance verifies her claims. However, proof of intent to kill is not required by German law to be tried.

“The public prosecutor’s office does not believe that the stabbing was justified by self-defense,” a spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told reporters. Authorities have charged her with bodily harm rather than manslaughter, but still, she now could face up to 10 years imprisonment.

Should she have allowed this man to proceed? The German authorities would have preferred it that way as they have been ignoring the wave of migrant violence against women for many years. In 2015, over 1,200 girls across Germany were sexually assaulted by 2,000 men.

Initially, there was dead silence from officials and the press was not reporting the truth after joining the cover-up conspiracy. Only after reports hit the internet (we even had clients contacting us) did the truth begin to surface.  The police were even told to remove the word “RAPE” from all official reports on the Cologne attacks. Police Chief Wolfgang Albers, age 60, was fired after criticizing the police’s lack of involvement during the incident.

Now, foreigners account for 41% of all crimes in Germany after rising by 23% in 2022 and 19% in 2023. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vowed to address this matter and increase border patrol measures. On the other hand, he says Germany has an international obligation to permit foreigners to seek asylum. How are women to protect themselves when the law is skewed in favor of migrants? The law will not permit a woman to use weapons in self-defense if her attacker is unarmed, even if he could easily overpower her. Every country led by such leftist ideology is facing a similar, dangerous situation.

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American Auto CEO Praises China’s EV Market


Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

BYD.ChinaEV

CEO of Lucid Motors and a former VP of engineering at Tesla Peter Rawlinson says his company is stuck in the EV “valley of death” as EVs in America “frankly suck.” Rawlinson admitted that China has an advantage in technology, but more over, they have the ability to produce affordable EVs.

“I think the Chinese do have a fundamental advantage because when the government says go, they all go in the same direction instead of arguing with each other,” Rawlinson said. China has provided over $230 billion to its newly emerging EV sector since 2009. “I’d say they’re still behind in terms of the core EV powertrain technology, but don’t underestimate them,” Rawlinson added.

The CEO also said that he personally drives the competitors cars and believes the “American public has been ill-served by underwhelming EVs.” His company is on track to produce a new electric SUV called Gravity that will retail for $94,900. Quality EVs are available in America but they come at a steep price which is why they have not become mainstream.

He is not alone in his thinking among industry leaders. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares previously believed China’s EVs would have a similar reception to the US public that Japanese autos did back in the 1970s. That was

Batteries account for around 40% of the total cost of EVs, and companies like BYD are able to maintain low prices are they own the supply chain to create these batteries from the raw materials to the finished packs.

The West is unaware how affordable Chinese EVs actually are without tariffs. The BYD Seagull EV Honor Edition starts at about $9,700. The BYD Dolphin EV Honor costs only $13,900 and the BYD Yuan electric SUV is $16,600. You cannot find used cars for these prices in the US, let alone an EV.

If those pushing to eliminate fossil fuels were truly concerned about emissions, they would permit China to import these EVs to Europe, Canada, and America without astronomical tariffs. Capital makes the world flow. They are deliberately preventing the Western public from purchasing affordable, good quality vehicles. Instead, they expect the average man to take on tens of thousands in debt to buy a lower quality car to save on fuel.

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