Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece Re-Posted Jan 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Another January 6th, 2022 important geopolitical event was the rising tension between Turkey and Greece. There has been an arms race between the two which escalated going into the end of 2021. Turkey intensified the arms race when it asked Biden to buy 40 F-16 fighter jets to upgrade its Air Force. The move coincides with the recent deal struck by Greece to acquire France Rafale jets and frigates. These two nations hate each other since when Xerces invaded Greece and was defeated and then Alexander the Great conquered Babylon. The tensions go back thousands of years but then Turkey became Muslim and now the clash remains also between Christianity and Islam.

Hulusi Akar, the Turkish Defense Minister, among other things, also said on  January 8th, that Turkey wanted to resolve disputes with its neighbor and fellow NATO member, Greece, through dialogue and turn the Aegean into a “sea of friendship.” However, that was followed by the “but” where he accused Athens of pressing ahead with what he said were provocative actions, including militarizing islands close to mainland Turkey, in breach of international agreements. Hulusi Akar made incendiary statements to media representatives in Ankara and threatened NATO through Greece. He said that defense and security issues should be kept away from everyday politics and should not be the subject of war and that in his country, the issue of defense and security is a matter of 84 million people. 

In 1453, the Ottoman Turks captured the Byzantine capital of Constantinople ending the Roman Empire for good. That completed their conquest of this once mighty empire and today we call what was Anatolia Turkey. That established the Ottoman Empire. For the next 400 years, Greece was ruled by the Turks, but Greece always resented their occupation given the history back to Xerxes and Alexander the Great. There were many failed uprisings against Turkish rule over the centuries.

In fact, it took just 28 years for the Greeks to stage their first revolt in 1481. The first uprising took place on the Mani peninsula in 1481, when Korkodeilos Kladas and the fierce Mani fighters rose up against the Ottomans. In 1711, the all-powerful Tsar of Russia, Peter the Great, issued a proclamation calling upon the Greek people to revolt. In truth, the Greeks took up arms against the Ottomans 123 separate times before 1821 and the great war.

It was 1821 when the Greeks launched a rebellion that would develop into the Greek War of Independence. With the help of Britain, France, and Russia, the Greeks gained their independence from the Turks in 1832. However, the new Greek nation only included a relatively small part of European Greek lands. There remained a large Greek population in mainland Turkey, former Anatolia from ancient times. This fact led Greece to constantly seek to re-take more land from the Ottoman Turks. Multiple wars between Greece and Turkey unfolded, and local Greek rebellions with the support of the Greek government were becoming the norm.

Greek Epirus Revolt of 1854, in which Greek military officers aided the rebels in the Ottoman province of Epirus. This was also part of the larger Crimean War, and the Turks defeated these rebels. The Greek population of the large island of Crete launched many revolts against Turkish rule. There were the Greek Cretan Revolts of 1841, 1858, 1866-1868, 1875-1878, and 1889. All were defeated by the Turks.

A new revolt on Crete broke out in 1896 which led to the Second Greco-Turkish War which is also called the “Thirty Days’ War” of 1897. The Ottoman army re-organized with the help of German advisors. That enabled them to easily defeat the unprepared Greek military. Greece had to surrender some border areas in the peace treaty and were forced to pay heavy reparations to the Turks.

Nevertheless, there was the Cretan revolt, which continued until 1898. That at least forced the Turks to remove their military from the island and set up an autonomous Cretan State, which, while still under Ottoman rule, but was nominally self-governing.

Next came the First Balkan War (October, 1912-May 30, 1913), in which Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Montenegro all combined forces to defeat the Turks. They almost conquered all of the Ottoman Empire’s remaining lands in Europe. This is when Crete became officially part of Greece ending the Third Greco-Turkish War.

This was followed by the Fourth Greco-Turkish War (1921-1922) which defeated the Ottoman Empire in World War One. Greek troops participated in the Allied occupation of large parts of Ottoman Turkey. This is when with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Greece launched a full invasion of Turkey. The goal was to re-establish all the former Greek-speaking lands into the modern Green nation.

51.6 years later, the tension rose again this time forming the Greek-Turkish Conflict Over Cyprus in 1974. This became a full-scale war between Greece and Turkey. In 1974, the island-nation of Cyprus was engulfed in conflict when a coup overthrew the government with the goal of joining Cyprus with its Greek majority population with Greece. Turkey invaded northern Cyprus and set up a separate Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a “nation” that only Turkey recognizes.

Tensions began to rise with the 2020.05 turning point on the Economic Confidence Model. These tensions are at their highest since 1974 and it looks like war is inevitable once again. Turkish President Erdogan’s re-conversion of the Hagia Sophia to a place of Muslim worship enraged many Greeks, which only exacerbated the economic competition for the oil and gas in the seabed near Cyprus. As the Greek and Turkish militaries face off at sea and in the air on a routine basis.

Here we also have a convergence of many cycles. The next 51.6-year cycle from 1974 events brings us directly to the period of rising risk of international war starting in 2025-2027 time period. This insane climate change policy that is deliberately driving up fuel prices around the world is crushing the third world and there people have far less risk in the face of war compared to the developed industrial nations.

The problem we have is as the economy turns down because of this absurd COVID nonsense that has wiped out tourism, a major income source for Greece and Turkey, hotels are closing and people are unemployed. This increases the tensions for war.

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jan 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is a confrontation in the wind. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister and special negotiator in the US-Russia talks in Geneva, bluntly states that NATO can no longer “push” Russia to a minor role in European and international politics. NATO must return to the borders of 1997. Russia is blaming the US for the uprising in Kazakhstan. If we look at the NATO borders, we can see how Russia is concerned.

In 1949, there were 12 founding members of NATO including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Additional nations were added as follows: Greece and Turkey in 1952, Germany in 1955, Spain in 1982, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009 and Montenegro in 2017. Therefore, pushing the border back to 1997 means NATO must vacate Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro.

In Kazakhstan, at the beginning of the year, a sudden doubling in the prices of the LPG in Kazakhstan ignited riots within the nation that is renowned for its oil reserves and financial stability. Kazakhstan is one of the largest oil reserves on the planet. Still, riots started as a result of a hike in prices of LPG at the beginning of the year 2022. Protests expanded and soon turned into violence which in turn led to the destruction of government and private properties along with the loss of many lives. As a result, On January 5th, 2022 the Government of Kazakhstan resigned right on our target date of January 6th, 2022 but had no effect on the agitation. As a result, the Government resigned but the protest is still not under control. Chaos expanded and led to further unnecessary loss of lives and property. Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asked for help from Russia as he was unable to handle the situation inside the country.

Kazakhstan is strategically important for its oil reserves. It’s critically as important to Russia and even more so than Belarus or Ukraine. Russia and Kazakhstan have the largest continuous land border on planet earth. Kazakhstan has had a very stable economy. Thus the doubling of energy has seriously destabilized the country and this is something the globalists may have cheered thinking they can usher in the Great Reset and end energy production there, but their grand plan will fail. The energy crisis has also ignited the old religious tensions that we subdued thanks to economics. But destabilize the economy and old wounds arise.

A significant fraction of the country’s 19 million residents are Christian Russians – one-quarter of the population of Kazakhstan is ethnic Russians. During the days of the Soviet Union, Russians migrated to various parts that included Kazakhstan as well as Eastern Ukraine. Russia has an obligation to protect Russian in Kazakhstan more so than Ukraine because they are a religious minority in a Muslim country which is significantly different from just land claims in Ukraine and NATO expansion.

There has been an underlying Kazakh nationalist movement centered on religion for they are virtually all Muslim. They oppose the Orthodox-Christian Russian minority and Russia for that matter. The general concern is that a civil war in Kazakhstan would result in an anti-Russian ethnic cleansing rooted in religion. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev who tried to appease the mob ordered the governors to return the price controls. Unlike Ukraine where Yanukovich could not even speak proper Ukrainian, here the president is Muslim.

In this case, a religious war in Kazakhstan would send refugees pouring into Russia which again is not the case in Ukraine. Kazakhstan just so happens to be also the heart of the Soviet space program and it develops its S-550 ABM system critical to its national security for Russia also extracts Uranium from Kazakhstan for its nuclear fuel.

This is strikingly different from the Ukrainian revolution which was over corruption. Here in Kazakhstan, there is an underlying religious tension mixed with national security. On January 6th, 2022, Britain warned Moscow that it was working with Western partners on high-impact sanctions targetting Russia’s financial sector should it invade Ukraine. But this was the precise fall of the Kazakhstan government. These dates are always amazing to me. To watch how events happen to the very day.

For example, the Economic Confidence Model also marked the very day of the high on July 20th, 1998 in the US share market from which the Long-Term Capital Management crash began in September. The 1987 turning point picked the very day of the crash and confirmed the low and the capital flow shift which resulted in selling US assets repatriating cash to Japan creating the Bubble on the peak of that wave in 1989.95.

However, sometimes these turning points have been the opposite whereas the geopolitical or economic event comes first and the markets respond secondly to those events in the aftermath.

There have been many events both economically and geopolitically which have aligned with the Economic Confidence Model. There are people who just hate it and try desperately to dismiss this model out of hand because it confirms that any attempt to manipulate the economy by socialists will always fail.

Anyone who attempts to argue against the existence of any business cycle is typically someone who supports the government against the people in true Marxist fashion. Even Paul Volcker’s rare book from 1977 entitled The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle bluntly confirmed that Keynesian economics failed because it was supposed to eliminate recessions and depressions.

The peak in 1998 started the Long Term Capital Management Crisis and the first time the Federal Reserve stepped in to bail out a Hedge Fund to save the banks. Even the 911 famous attack on the World Trade Center took place on a specific turning point in 2001.695 to the very day. Not all wars begin precisely on this model, it may reflect when the combination of trends forms to create the decision to go to war which may predate the event by months or years. It is difficult to determine that instant of a decision, but clearly, war unfolds as the result of some trend set in motion previously.

The 2007 turning point picked the very day of the high in the real estate market and began the Great Crash that unleashed perpetual quantitative easing. The very day that Greece applied to the IMF beginning the European debt crisis took place on a precise day in the ECM – April 16, 2020. This was the very same position one which the 911 attack took place which resulted in not only the invasion of Iraq, but it altered our way of life forever having to be X-rayed to get on a plane.

While the peak of the wave 2015.75 marked the peak in government and the start of the Big Bang which is the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are now in following 2014 when the ECB moved to negative interest rates, that was certainly reflected by the peak in bond markets and the ultimate destruction of European sovereign debt which is why they now desperately need this Great Reset.

This target 2015.75 also marked the very day of Russia troops arriving in Syria which began the refugee crisis into Europe. Merkel’s unilateral decision to allow in the refugees set in motion the rising separatist movements in Europe. TheWashington Times wrote on September 10, 2015,“Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” Her decision illustrated that a single leader could alter the course of Europe denying everyone else the right to even vote on her policy.

Then the following year 2016 brought BREXIT and the election of Donald Trump which most people still fail to understand why he was elected. Trump beat all career politicians fulfilling what our model projected back in 1985 that the 2016 election would be the first time a potential third party would take the White House.

Nigel Farage was our keynote speaker at the WEC in Rome in 2019 and said we were the only one to forecast BREXIT would win. But we had also forecast at the start of this wave in 1985.65 that the first opportunity for a 3rd Party type candidate would win the White House was our Pi target from there which was 2017.05 the very day Donald Trump became president.

We also warned that the 2015.75 turning point would be the beginning of the great shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE and that we would see real estate decline in real terms in the urban centers and rise in the suburban centers just as that pattern has appeared many times throughout history and even market the decline and fall of the Roman Empire.

Then the bottom of this ECM wave was more than the Trump Impeachment trial began on the turning point and a constitutional crisis in Russia that will allow Putin to stay in office indefinitely. It was the beginning of the COVID Pandemic scam. That marked the start of the COVID Crash into the March 2020 low.

Going back in time we find that the turning point in 1934.05 marked the confiscation of gold whereas the 1985 turning point marked the birth of the G5 and the organized attempt to manipulate the dollar lower. We have the last three waves of that 51.6-year sequences mark the new adoption of socialism following Karl Marx in the USA. This was the beginning of the “progressive” movement which led to the birth of the income tax by 1913.

January 6th, 2022 will go down in history as another important turning point. This is not just about Kazakhstan, this appears to be shaping up as the start of a major confrontation.

With respect to Ukraine, on March 1, 2014 (2014.164), the Russian government approved the invasion of Ukraine. That came on the Cycle of War Model which has been rather consistent. However, Russia then came to the aid of Syria precisely on the date of the Economic Confidence Model – 2015.75.

In addition, the ECM plotted from the Cuban Missile Crisis also targeted 2014.39 as the beginning of a new period of direct confrontation. That too pointed to 2014 and the period for the shift in geopolitical trend.

That was met with Obama imposing sanctions on Russia which was absurd. The idea that putting on sanctions will force the people to overthrow their government has never worked because the people know the enemy is not their own government but external. That boosted Putin’s polls.

Following January 6, 2022, which is the Ukrainian ECM, the next target to pay attention will be March 14th, 2022, the April 10th target that may be aligned with the French elections, and then we have October 5/6, 2022 which is 8.6 years from the 2014 turning point on the War Cycle and the Cuban Missile Model.

We are entering a very primal phase where society will be tested to the brink as this period of authoritarianism rises into 2032. The inflation also began in target with the turning point of 2020.05 as has been the rise in civil unrest. Governments are collapsing and they can no longer keep the monetary system going as they once did. This is why they are becoming authoritarian using COVID to scare people into compliance. Civil Unrest will rise because no amount of protesting will divert governments from this Great Reset. Thus, we will be faced with a global revolution post-2032 and a completely new form of government will be on the table. It is up to us to make sure that is for freedom and to not rob our posterity of the freedom we once knew when growing up.