Posted originally on the CTH on May 25, 2024 | Sundance
This is interesting. Only a very small segment of the U.S. electorate seemingly understands the ramification of a dollar-based central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the USA. There is also evidence the Russian sanctions were created as the starter fuse for the CBDC process.
WASHINGTON DC – […] Crypto-friendly legislation moving through Congress in the last two weeks drew a surprising level of bipartisan support, surfacing household names such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as unexpected allies, while suggesting that crypto skeptics like Sen. Elizabeth Warren may soon be isolated on the issue.
[…] Republicans who were already aligning themselves with the crypto world are leaning into the embrace even further. Former President Donald Trump is increasingly pledging to support the interests of digital asset traders, and he’s starting to accept campaign contributions in crypto. (MORE)
“The Order directs the U.S. Government to assess the technological infrastructure and capacity needs for a potential U.S. CBDC in a manner that protects Americans’ interests. The Order also encourages the Federal Reserve to continue its research, development, and assessment efforts for a U.S. CBDC, including development of a plan for broader U.S. Government action in support of their work. This effort prioritizes U.S. participation in multi-country experimentation, and ensures U.S. leadership internationally to promote CBDC development that is consistent with U.S. priorities and democratic values.” (WHITE HOUSE)
That announcement was less than 2 weeks after Russia moved into Ukraine.
Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Retail sales in the US fell short of expectations this month, according to data compiled by the Commerce Department. Retail spending decreased 0.6% from April to March, undermining forecasts of a 0.4% decrease. Yet, Americans are spending MORE on the essentials such as groceries. How is this a shocking admittance to anyone?
Even online sales fell by 1.2% from March to April. Americans spent 1.6% less at clothing retailers, and 0.9% less at hobby stores on a monthly basis. Again, of no surprise, gasoline sales rose 3.1%.
The Fed is attempting to smooth over the data, using rhetorical language such as the economy is presenting a “softer tone.”Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who believes monetary policy is “in a good place” albeit “restrictive.” Williams, like Chair Powell, said that there are no indicators stating a need to lower interest rates. “I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on the inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term.”
The Fed held rates loosely for so long that there was not much it could do, in addition to the utter disaster that is America’s fiscal policy. I explained in another post why the Fed simply cannot attain the 2% target.
People do not have the disposable income to spend on retail at this point, and those who do prefer to invest or save those funds as confidence has vanished, leading to a pullback in spending on nonessentials. Bad news for America’s consumer-based economy.
April’s CPI is up 3.4% YoY, slightly down from March’s 3.5% posting. I do not believe they are accurately calculating prices. No one believes them at this point. So, we should expect the Fed to maintain the 5.25% to 5.50% rates at the next FOMC meeting. Inflation is here to stay.
Posted Originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Powell reiterated this week that he does not see any short-term need to lower interest rates. The Fed remains delicate in its speech to the public. They knew that inflation would continue rising due to various factors but had to say they were awaiting incoming data. The data is in for Q1 and nothing indicates that inflation is easing, therefore, expect rates to hold.
The Labor Department noted that the PPI rose to 0.5% in April from May, up 2.2% since the year prior. PCE, the Fed’s primary inflation indicator, rose 2.7% in Match from 2.5% in February. The US economy overall advanced 2.7% from October to December. We are looking at inflation beginning to rise faster than economic growth, which will lead to stagflation.
I have pointed out numerous times that the various measures provided to the public drastically downplay the dollar’s loss in purchasing power. Americans can feel it daily every time they make a purchase or check their bank accounts.
I explained that we already began experiencing stagflation in 2021. Normally, the standard definition of “stagflation” has been explained as slow economic growth with relatively high unemployment/or economic stagnation that takes place with rising prices. Some have also defined it as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).
Stagflation became a term that defined the 1970s because economic growth was still positive, but the rate of inflation was far greater due to the price shock of the OPEC embargo. The Democrats are constantly pushing to raise taxes, and sent corporations fleeing offshore, and it was NOT merely because of the tax rate. Back then, I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation, and they wanted to know why NO American company got a contract from China to construct the Yellow River Dam. I explained that German companies were NOT taxed on worldwide income, and as such, they were already 40% less than an American company because Americans pay taxes on worldwide income, and the ONLY other country to that was Japan. Thus, American companies moved offshore, NOT because labor was cheaper, but so they could complete.
Now, we have additional regulations that are making it increasingly difficult for American businesses to prosper. The capital gains tax will be a nail in the coffin. The recent tariff slap on Chinawill also cause the price of goods to rise and harm the supply chain.
Remember, inflation was only 1.4% when Joe Biden took office – far beneath the Fed’s target. Inflation has risen as a direct result of fiscal policies under Bidenomics. The government has completely ignored the Fed’s warning that it must curtail spending. We are sacrificing our economy for the interests of the globalists.
Posted Originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The New York Federal Reserve reported that American households set a new record after plummeting into $17.69 trillion of debt, a 1.1% ($184 billion) increase from Q4 2023. Worse, the number of delinquencies is rising as households struggle to make ends meet amid the cost of living crisis. Inflation is not waning, taxes are rising, and America’s debt burden has become utterly unmanageable.
Mortgage balances rose by $190 billion and reached $12.44 trillion by March. People are paying far more in interest alone than they have in recent years. Those who bought in the hopes of refinancing are not in a good position. Auto loan debt rose by $9 billion, reaching $1.62 trillion.
Americans have been attempting to pay off their credit card balances, with overall credit card debt declining by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion. Yet, that was close to a record-high for credit card debt and we tend to see balances lowered after the holiday retail spending spree ends. Consumers do not want to pay those 20%+ interest rates on cards but many are forced to do so simply to put food on the table.
Delinquencies are rising – this is a major issue. It is difficult to crawl out of debt once someone is deep within the cycle. “In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, regional economic principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”
Credit card delinquencies have reached their highest levels since 2012 when America was recovering from the Great Recession. In fact, by the end of Q1 2024, around 3.2% of all outstanding debt was in delinquency. The New York Fed reported a rise in missed payments across all debts, including those 90 days past due.
No foreign nation is coming to offer America a bailout check. The Biden Administration has made it clear that American households are NOT Washington’s priority. We are to continue working and paying taxes in order to fund foreign wars and climate change packages. How else will we house those 7+ million illegal migrants and offer them free healthcare and shelter? How else will we pay off the student loans for millions? How else will we continue to grow the public sector and pay for countless new social programs? Americans are in serious debt, and Washington is all but ensuring this trend continues.
Washington’s reckless spending comes with a cost to US taxpayers. While the fed may simply roll over their debt and issue new debt to pay off the old, the American public is on the hook for immediate liquidity every single year via taxation. The misconception that Biden would only target the wealthy needs to be dispelled as a recent study reveals that 63% of new audits targeted Americans earning under $200,000.
Now, Biden initially claimed he would send his troop of IRS agents to target Americans earning double that amount. The billionaire class was not targeted, as 80% of all audits were on filers earning under $1 million. Yes, there are far more taxpayers in the middle and lower brackets. However, the IRS merely claimed they would prioritize hunting higher earners; they never explicitly said they wouldn’t come after ALL Americans.
The entire hunt for taxation has been a war on the middle class, who is unable to file massive write-offs and cannot afford to continue paying Uncle Sam on every incoming and outgoing transaction, plus savings, income, and everything else from birth to death. Washington effectively lowered our purchasing power by fueling inflation through absurd fiscal and social policies, and now they are asking people to give them even more of whatever money that remains. Washington continues to spend taxpayer funds on initiatives that the people have never once voted on, and ahead of election season, Biden is going on yet another spending spree with your money to buy off voters.
The highest earners know how to avoid taxes. Trump famously told Hillary during a debate prior to the 2016 US Presidential Election that he obviously used the loopholes in the tax system, as do all financially savvy businessmen. “Her donors took massive tax write offs… and other things that Hillary as a Senator allowed,” Trump stated during the debate. “So do Warren Buffett, so does George Soros, and so do other people Hillary is supported by,” he added. Note that the Democrats in control have never repealed restrictions on these tax loopholes that only help their wealthy donors.
Every new war, aid package, climate change package, social program, and migrant who crosses the border is now the responsibility of the US taxpayer. They wrongly believe that our money belongs to the federal government, with the state also taking out their share. Then, they create new taxes, such as targeting capital gains, to ensure that every American is stretched thin. Did anyone vote for this nonsense? We do not live in a Democracy and anyone who says otherwise is either misinformed or lying.
It will become far easier for governments to extort the people when they introduce CBDC in January 2025. Uncle Sam will think you have hidden any cash on hand from him, cash that belongs to him, once they force us to digitize our dollars. Inflation will continue to rise above GDP and we will enter a period of stagflation. This is why I have warned countless times that private and tangible assets are a safer bet compared to cash as we move into 2028.
The problem with people’s attitudes toward the national debt is that everyone has forgotten why we borrowed in the first place. The theory was that if you borrowed rather than printed money, you were NOT increasing the existing money supply, and therefore, in theory, it would not be inflationary.
However, the Democrats forgot how to run for government without their Marxist agenda of bribing the people to vote for them. This led to always creating deficits. Add to this the NEOCONS who have done nothing but wage wars ever since World War II to defeat Communism and have spent money lavishly on trying to conquer the world.
During the Presidential Third Debate of 1960, the question about the outflow of gold from the USA reserves arose. This sparked a Gold Panic in the London gold market, whereby gold rallied to $40 for the first time, showing that the Bretton Woods System was beginning to collapse. The United States’ outflow of gold was not really from a trade deficit but from the fact that the USA was defending the world with its military establishing bases everywhere. That meant capital was leaving. Gold rallied again to $40 in the late 1960s, and finally, it forced the collapse of the convertibility of gold under the Bretton Woods System in 1971. Kennedy’s words were:
“Now, on the question of gold. The difficulty, of course, is that we do have heavy obligations abroad, that we therefore have to maintain not only a favorable balance of trade but also send a good deal of our dollars overseas to pay our troops, maintain our bases, and sustain other economies. In other words, if we’re going to continue to maintain our position in the sixties, we have to maintain a sound monetary and fiscal policy. We have to have control over inflation, and we also have to have a favorable balance of trade. We have to be able to compete in the world market.”
The dollars were being spent not to benefit our economy but to fulfill the dreams of the Neocons; when Communism fell, they refused to accept any real change.
Rome takes care of widows and orphans.
We borrow, which is worse than printing because we have to pay interest on constantly rolling the debt. This year, we will spend about $1 trillion on interest, the total national debt when Reagan took office in 1981. At times, 70% of the national debt is accumulative interest. That means it went nowhere to improve society or care for widows and orphans, at least as the Romans did. Had we printed the money instead of borrowing, it would have been less inflationary and the capital would have created more jobs instead of investing in government debt which has only funded the Neocons’ wildest dreams.
Posted originally on May 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Eleven states may face capital gain taxes to comply with theBiden Administration’s 2025 budget, in which the government must hunt the people for taxes to pay for a fraction of their spending. The concept of capital gains was not within the original Constitution. The Founding Fathers established a completely new nation in an attempt to flee government tyranny, but yet again, Democracy has fallen into a Republic where the people have no say.
Capital gains were introduced in 1913, The 16th Amendment granted US Congress the power to levy income via taxation, which remained at around 7% until 1921. Congress quickly determined that they needed to extort citizens for more money and created two brackets. The 7% tax became a standard for income tax, but investors who held for over two years, an insignificant amount of time, were punished for saving and forced to pay 12.5% to Washington. Fast forward to 2025, and we are looking at the top marginal rate rising to up to 57.9%! The current capital extortion rate is around a quarter of one’s capital.
This idea of hunting down the rich is utter nonsense as it becomes an excuse to eliminate the middle class. The big money can take the risk, but the average investor cannot. This will deter small business investment and entrepreneurs who greatly contribute to innovation as they bring creativity and imagination to business.
Naturally, the 11 states are primarily blue. Californians really destroyed their state by voting for Gavin Newsom, and now they may face a top tax of 57.9% to cover the state’s excessive spending and growing deficit. New York and New Jersey, two states that should have stayed red, will face the second-highest capital gain taxation at a rate of 55.5%. These states already pay astronomical taxes on things such as property. Minnesota is looking at a tax of 55.45%, Oregon 54.5%, and Maine 51.75%, with the remaining states (Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Georgia, and Idaho) all facing capital gain extortion rates above 50%.
Why on Earth would anyone want to conduct business in these states? If Biden remains in power, it will be a wonder if major corporations continue to choose to do business in the United States at all. Businesses could go literally almost anywhere else and face lower rates of taxation. Additionally, the American consumer has been stretched so thin through dollar devaluation, inflation, and taxation that they are not spending the way they once did. Capitalism is under attack; success is a punishable offense.
America’s consumer economy will continue to decline while places like China see their middle class grow and the consumer economy rise. China is not creating worthless spending packages on climate change. Remember, they told us clear as day that the goal is to destroy America’s standing as the world’s leading superpower. Klaus Schwab has been aiming for 2030, but the computer has been honing in on 2032 before Schwab released plans for Agenda 2030. Unfortunately, this is all precisely on schedule as America enjoys its final time in the spotlight as the world’s financial capital.
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