Marxism is ignorant of the Pareto principle | Jordan Peterson & Bret Weinstein


Published on Sep 8, 2017

Marx observed in capitalist economies the manifestation of a fundamental law — the Pareto principle. However, he erred in his diagnosis and prescription for the problem. Jordan Peterson and Bret Weinstein explain.

 

President Trump and First Lady Melania Attend 2018 FEMA Briefing To Begin Hurricane Season…


As the hurricane season officially starts, President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump and the majority of the Cabinet attend the critically important 2018 FEMA briefing.

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REMARKS BY PRESIDENT TRUMP AT 2018 HURRICANE BRIEFING – FEMA Headquarters, Washington, D.C., 2:06 P.M. EDT [Transcript Link]

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I want to thank you. Great job, Brock. Really fantastic. Thank you very much. And we really appreciate the job you’ve done. It’s been amazing, and you really have kept quite busy, I would say, unfortunately. We had no choice. We were hit hard. But you’ve done a fantastic job. So I want to thank you very much.

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Thank you.

THE PRESIDENT: Secretary Nielsen, Administrator Long, I want to thank you for hosting this incredible group of people. I’d like to sort of maybe say and pay some respects to some of the people here today. I have a list.

Of course, we have to start with our great First Lady, Melania. Thank you, Melania. She’s doing great. (Applause.) She went through a little rough patch, but she’s doing great. And we’re very proud of her. She’s done a fantastic job as First Lady. The people love you. The people of our country love you. So thank you, honey.

And Vice President Pence. Mike. Mike, another great job you are doing. Secretary Michael Pompeo. We’re keeping him very busy. We’re keeping you so busy. You’re going to be flying — a lot of flying in the next couple of weeks. But what a job you’ve done, and we appreciate it. The whole country appreciates it, Mike. Thank you very much.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you, sir.

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Steve Mnuchin. Steve, wherever you may be. He’s working hard on those taxes and keeping the taxes down. We passed the greatest tax cut in the history of our country, and lots of other things. And thank you very much. Great.

I think we say that we have had the strongest — this is the strongest, from an economic standpoint, that our country has ever been. We’re doing better in terms of business, in terms of unemployment. We’ve broken the record with so many different groups. African American, the lowest unemployment in history. The Hispanic lowest unemployment in history. Women, lowest unemployment in 21 years. Seven trillion dollars in worth we’ve created since the election. Seven trillion with a “T.” Not with even a “B.” And that’s a number that nobody would have thought was possible. So thank you to everybody. That’s been fantastic.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Thank you, Jeff. Thank you very much. Secretary Ryan Zinke. Keeping very busy. I know that, Ryan. That’s good. That’s good for you. Right? Keeping busy and opening up those lands so people can use them and enjoy them. Largest landlord in the world, Ryan. Nobody knows that. But you’re the largest — by far, the largest landlord. It’s almost half the United States if you think about it. Right? So great job you’re doing. Sonny Perdue. And those farms are doing well, and I did the farmers a big favor last night. Right?

SECRETARY PERDUE: You did. Absolutely.

THE PRESIDENT: I did a big, big favor for the farmers. We love the farmers, and they were happy.

SECRETARY PERDUE: They love you.

THE PRESIDENT: I know that Senator Grassley and Senator Ernst were very happy with what we did. So thank you for your help. I appreciate it.

Wilbur Ross, Secretary. I appreciate it, Wilbur. We’re renegotiating a lot of trade deals, and they’re really fantastic. And it’s going to — we have the worst trade deals ever made. And we’re going to have now fair trade deals. We have made the worst deals ever made. NAFTA is a disaster. World Trade Organization is a disaster. I could go deal after deal, and it’s been very unfair to our country, to our workers, to our companies, and to everybody else involved. And we’re changing them around rapidly. So, Wilbur Ross, thank you very much.

Secretary Alex Azar. Alex, I’m very proud of what you’ve done. And you’re coming up in about another month with healthcare. Maybe even sooner than that. We’re going to have a great healthcare bill planned. And it’s going to be great healthcare for a much smaller price than anybody ever thought possible. And I really appreciate that. And our new project that we’re really working on very hard is reducing the cost of prescription medicine. And that’s going to be something that people will not forget. Some people think that’s almost more important than the healthcare. I’ve had people say, “Which is more important?” They’re both important. But we’re reducing the cost of medicine because of what you’re doing, and we appreciate it.

Secretary Ben Carson, who’s got some things going on at HUD that we’re very excited. We had lunch the other day, and what you’re doing is great, Ben. That’s really inspirational. More than just brick and mortar. It’s really inspirational, Ben. And we appreciate it very much. Thank you very much.

Elaine Chao, Secretary. All you do is produce. You do it in a very quiet way and so effective and so incredible. What a job you’re doing with transportation. It was a great decision. Thank you very much.

Rick Perry. Rick is — I thought you were going to the VA. But we have great people at the VA, so — (laughter) — so now we don’t have to worry about the VA. I think we have great — I always thought Rick — I’d put him right over in the VA, and you would have done great there, too. But you’re doing a fantastic job at Energy. And we’re now the largest in the world in energy, Rick. The largest in the world. And we’re now exporting energy for the first time. Never did it. Now we’re exporting energy. But we have become the largest energy producer in the world. Who would have thought? But we’ve opened it up a little bit, Rick, right? And we’ve let our people go and do their thing. And they’re doing a great job.

Acting Secretary of the VA, Peter O’Rourke. And, Peter, the combination of you and Wilkie, I think that’s going to be an unbeatable combination. So thank you for all your help. I’m hearing only good things.

Secretary Nielsen. I don’t know, what do I say about you? (Laughter.) Huh? You are doing great. And the border is coming along. And the wall is going up. We have $1.6 billion being spent on phase one of the wall and we’ll get additional funding. And every week that goes by, people realize it more and more that we have to have the wall. And we’re doing great in San Diego and different places.

General John Kelly is here someplace. General? Good, General. Great job, John.

Administrator Scott Pruitt. Thank you, Scott, very much. EPA is doing really, really well. And you know, somebody has to say that about you a little bit. You know that, Scott. (Laughter.) But you have done — I tell you, the EPA is doing so well. So many approvals — and disapprovals. If they don’t qualify, they don’t qualify. But we don’t have to wait 15 years to tell somebody they don’t qualify. And people are really impressed with the job that’s being done at the EPA. Thank you very much, Scott.

Mick Mulvaney. He’s got two hats on now, right, Mick? You’ve got two hats, not just one. And you’re doing great at both. But Office of Management and Budget has been good, and our budget this year will be — there will be a lot of cutting, because we want to cut. You know, Mick is really more of a cutter than the other. But we had to get the military through. We got $700 billion approved for military. We needed that.

And in order to get that done, we had to do some things for the Democrats that we would normally not do — because we consider a lot of it waste and a horror show. But in order to get our military and $6 billion for opioid. So we got the — which Melania is so heavily involved in — and we got that taken care of. And very importantly, next year, $716 billion for military. So, Mick, great job. And this time, you can start cutting, okay? Because we have our military taken care of now, so you can start really cutting.

A friend of mine for a long time, Administrator Linda McMahon. And, Linda, I was just being told the other day what you’ve done in small business has been incredible. One of the real stars. And Vince and myself and your family, we’re all proud of you. But what you’ve done is fantastic. So much work. People don’t realize your small business is really — it’s really a very massive business. And you add it all up and those numbers are not small business. They’re bigger than just about any company you can even think of. So congratulations, Linda. Thank you very much.

Governor Rick Scott. We have a lot of people around and watching. You know, we’re on screens all over the country and I think beyond. But we have Governor Rick Scott of Florida is there, and he’s watching and he’s done a fantastic job. He’s now running for the United States Senate. And I won’t get political, but I think you’re going to do very well, okay? That’s not political, is it?

Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Deputy, who is — thanks, Patrick — really doing a job. And you’re bringing in all that money under budget. I know that. You know, you’re going to buy two airplanes instead of one for the same price, right? That’s what we want. He did a fantastic job at the company that he worked for on that. And we appreciate that very much. And it’s so important that when you go out and buy the equipment that we’re talking about buying — you know, hundreds and hundreds of jet fighters and bombers and planes and boats and ships and everything — we got to get the great price. All right? We got to get the great price. And if we can help you, let us know. Because there’s very few things so important.

Administrator Mark Green, U.S. Agency for International Development. And thank you very much, Mark. We appreciate it very much. Thank you.

Assistant Secretary Neil Jacobs and Administrator Brock Long. Vice Chairman Paul Selva. General Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy. And, as you know, Charles Ray. Good old — I knew Ray Charles. I didn’t know Charles Ray, but — (laughter) — now I know Charles Ray. So, you know, that’s pretty good, too. I dont know, maybe Ray Charles is even better, right? I don’t know. But we appreciate the great job you’ve done. Thank you very much.

I want to start just by saying that we’ve had three devastating major hurricanes that hit our country within a month’s time. There’s never been really anything like it. And in the case of Texas, it wouldn’t even go away. It would come in. We thought it was gone. It would go back out. It would reload. And this happened three different times, Brock. That was a record raindrop. That was a record water drop on a state, and it wasnt even close.

And shortly thereafter, we dealt with the threat of another hurricane and then destructive wildfires along the West Coast, in California and other places. America has never experienced so many large-scale disasters in so short a period of time. And we have the most qualified staff between the Secretary and Brock, and all of your people. You’ve been fantastic. And it goes a little bit unrecognized, because all you do is see people fighting and working, and getting the fires out and the water off the land, and all of the things.

But believe me, the country has watched, and they’ve seen an incredible job what you’ve done.

Our entire government leapt into action to coordinate the response, along with the state and local leaders. And we did have a lot of help from some really great governors — Florida, Texas. A lot of great people helped us, and it was great.

Families in Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi — they were all affected. Hard to believe. And on tribal lands, where the hit was catastrophic, and the storms were really historic in their severity.

But in the wake of such tragedy, we also witnessed the resilience of the American people and the professionalism, talent, and devotion of the men and women of FEMA. Good group, right?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Great group.

THE PRESIDENT: That’s a great group of people, and throughout our government. Last year, more than 17,000 FEMA and other federal employees, as well as 14,000 personnel from the Department of Defense National Guard, were deployed to support the massive response and recovery efforts left by these storms and these tragedies.

Administrator Long, I want to thank you in particular for the incredible job and the unbelievable teams of men and women that you led to take care of these problems. You have done a job. They’re talking about you all over. Don’t leave us, though, okay? Just relax. (Laughter.)

SECRETARY NIELSEN: Oh, he’s here.

THE PRESIDENT: In fact, we could have put him in a different position. We didn’t want to. We want him right there. It’s not an easy position. But you have really stepped forward, and we appreciate it.

I also want to recognize the Coast Guard, our other military services. I have to tell you, the Coast Guard saved 16,000 people. What do you think of that, Ben? Sixteen-thousand people. (Applause.) And I think — you know, honestly, they don’t get enough credit in many ways.

Mike made the commencement address this year at the Coast Guard Academy. I did it the year before. I don’t think the Coast Guard gets enough credit. And I’ve said it, and I even say it to the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines. I said, I think this year the Coast Guard, maybe in terms of increased branding — the brand of the Coast Guard has been something incredible what’s happened. Saved 16,000 people, many of them in Texas, for whatever reason that is. People went out in their boats to watch the hurricane. That didn’t work out too well. That didn’t work out too well.

So I just want to thank all of the people in the Coast Guard and all of our services for having been incredible. The National Weather Service; the American Red Cross — been amazing;, state and local governments; our brave first responders; law enforcement — always law enforcement; and so many others who came together to save lives, restore hope, and rebuild our communities.

As we enter the hurricane season again — here we go. Right? You’re ready?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Yes, sir.

THE PRESIDENT: But we’re entering it. This is it. We are marshaling every available resource to ensure maximum preparation for rapid response. That’s what we had last year. Disaster response and recovery is best achieved when it’s federally supported, state-managed, and locally executed. You agree with that, I think, Brock — right?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Yes, sir.

THE PRESIDENT: This is really the great model that we’ve built, and there’s no better model anywhere in the world. And we do help other countries, also, when there’s catastrophic events, like in Mexico and other places. We’re always there. We’re always there for them.

So I look forward to your briefing and I look forward to a very productive discussion. It’s an honor to be with all of the great people that work so hard in the Trump administration.

And, Mike, I’m going to ask you to say a few words. And thank for having done a great job.

END 2:22 P.M. EDT

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RECAP – READY FOR ACTION:

Europeans Pray for QE to End?


 

There is much hope buzzing around in Europe that Draghi is planning on ending Quantitative Easing. This is giving the Euro a bit of a lift in hopes that higher interest rates will stem to drastic capital outflows from Europe that resemble rats fleeing a sinking ship. Back on May 14th, Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank would avoid surprising investors with sudden changes to its stimulus plans. He further stressed that inflation was still too low and U.S. trade policies meant that a stronger Euro was a concern. Meanwhile, back in April, the ECB hinted that they would wait until the July meeting to talk about ending the QE program.

Meanwhile, the new Italian government has outlined the first guidelines of its economic policy. The new Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Wednesday that he wanted to organize the cooperative banking sector differently than the previous governments. His plan will most likely meet with considerable resistance from the financial sector and most likely Brussels. He seems to be toying with the idea that he wants to separate the banks as Glass-Steagall did during the aftermath of the Great Depression. He wants the future investment banks to be separated from retail banks.

The banking crisis in Europe has been perpetuated by the fact that there is the prejudice to actually merge economies despite a central government structure in Brussels. In the USA, the bad loans were taken from the banks whereas in Europe that has not taken place. The Italian banks are still sitting on a huge mountain of bad loans. If the ECB had actually created a program like the USA to take the bad loans from than banks, then this would have resulted in a disparity among member states. The southern states would have received a bailout at the expense of the northern members. This is the same structural problem of the Euro which infects almost every crucial policy to actually make the Eurozone function as a collective economy.

Winnipeg Grain Exchange Closing Right in Time for the Cycle


 

Canada’s last commodity exchange is closing. The Winnipeg Grain Exchange, which was established in 1887, will shut down for good after its owner transfers the bourse’s only remaining futures contract to New York. It is ironic that when a decision like this is made, it is often a sign of a major change in trend. Wheat peaked during the first quarter of 2008. We are just now starting to play with the Downtrend Line in preparation for a commodity boom into the 2024 time period.

I have been focusing on the energy output of the Sun declining and how we are headed back toward the climate getting much colder. People like Al Gore are politicians. He has no expertise in climate whatsoever. Nevertheless, he runs around the world arguing for global warming, preaching something that to him has become just a religion. He is THE person who made global warming a presidential issue that has stigmatized the entire world and prevented people from actually just looking at how everything works.

The markets are lining up and what they are showing is that we are in store for climate change, but it’s getting much colder and that is far worse than global warming. Civilization expands when the climate warms, and it contracts when it gets cold. This is also why Kim Jong-Un of North Korea used missiles to force the West to accept his country back into the world fold. Why? North Korea lost more than 2 million people when the crops failed in 1995/1996. The summer of 2017 saw a dramatic decline in crop production in North Korea, down by some 30%. They are headed to another cycle of cold and starvation. His father’s policies of feeding the army first has created a 1 million man army with nothing to do. People joined the army just to eat.

Everything we see in the computer’s projections WARNS that we are indeed in for climate change, but it is a natural cycle not caused by humankind. We are looking at a sharp rise in food prices in the years ahead. The closing of the Winnipeg Grain Exchange is strangely the way the commodity industry always works. You see mining companies close at the lows and expand at the highs. They can never see the future even when it punches them in the face. So stockpile food as we enter this period of rising prices. There will be shortages in the years ahead.

Sacrebleu! – President Trump Prepares to Unleash Wilbur Ross on Justin and Emmanuel…


Emmanuel from France arrived in Canada two days ahead of the G7 so he could connect with Justin from Canada and plan a unified strategy against U.S. President Trump’s economic position. Not kidding, they really did. Like a plan. Serious. No Joke.

Individually they feel insecure, so Justin and Emmanuel formulated a plan to create an economic G6 unity effort to defend against Godzilla Trump. [Who remained in DC holding meetings with Shinzo Abe to talk about C-VID and North Korea] Yes, while Justin and Emmanuel were discussing how to throw whines and cheese at Trump, President Trump was planning how to defend the world from nuclear proliferation.

Then something funny happened. After deep talks about C-VID were settled, Godzilla Trump looked up and saw the two giggling kids trying to tie the string from the perched water bucket to the door handle.

President Trump always looks for the opportunity to emphasize the looming caricature people create of him.  It serves his interests; and he enjoys playing cat and mouse with his opposition.  So Looming Trump stealthily walks up behind the kids right before dropping the bowling ball on the floor. BOOM:

Too funny.

You see, after spending day #1 with Justin, Emmanuel was feeling inflated and over-confident, so he transmitted this for the world to see:

Oh, so that’s the plan.  Isolate President Trump and feed the media a “6+1” strategy that enhances a narrative that President Donald Trump stands alone.

Oh, CNN and the U.S. media will love it…. they think.

OK, Got it.

So Emmanuel has a plan for the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan to stand against U.S. President Trump.

In order for Emmanuel and Justin’s plan to work, they need the U.K., Germany, Italy and Japan to go along with it.

Italy and Japan?

Emmanuel, feeling inspired…. continues:

… oh, I think I hear ‘freedom fries’ coming over the horizon.

It’s just too funny.  The back-story is too funny.  You see, Emmanuel and Germany’s Angela Merkel refused to even engage in any discussions of an E.U. / U.S. trade agreement while the potential for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were possible.  Secretary Wilbur Ross has been trying to talk trade with the EU for months.  They have refused to discuss.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told President Trump the EU wouldn’t discuss any trade deals while the Steel and Aluminum tariffs were pending.

So President Trump removed the “pending” component, and told Wilbur Ross to just make the tariffs begin.

The EU grand plan to use leverage, backfired.

Trump doesn’t play.

WATCH [Last third of interview is pertinent]:

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Then comes this:

…. When POTUS Trump says “look forward to seeing them tomorrow“, that’s codespeak for this:

Sacrebleu! – President Trump Prepares to Unleash Wilbur Ross on Justin and Emmanuel…

Emmanuel from France arrived in Canada two days ahead of the G7 so he could connect with Justin from Canada and plan a unified strategy against U.S. President Trump’s economic position. Not kidding, they really did. Like a plan. Serious. No Joke.

Individually they feel insecure, so Justin and Emmanuel formulated a plan to create an economic G6 unity effort to defend against Godzilla Trump. [Who remained in DC holding meetings with Shinzo Abe to talk about C-VID and North Korea] Yes, while Justin and Emmanuel were discussing how to throw whines and cheese at Trump, President Trump was planning how to defend the world from nuclear proliferation.

Then something funny happened. After deep talks about C-VID were settled, Godzilla Trump looked up and saw the two giggling kids trying to tie the string from the perched water bucket to the door handle.

President Trump always looks for the opportunity to emphasize the looming caricature people create of him.  It serves his interests; and he enjoys playing cat and mouse with his opposition.  So Looming Trump stealthily walks up behind the kids right before dropping the bowling ball on the floor. BOOM:

Too funny.

You see, after spending day #1 with Justin, Emmanuel was feeling inflated and over-confident, so he transmitted this for the world to see:

Oh, so that’s the plan.  Isolate President Trump and feed the media a “6+1” strategy that enhances a narrative that President Donald Trump stands alone.

Oh, CNN and the U.S. media will love it…. they think.

OK, Got it.

So Emmanuel has a plan for the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan to stand against U.S. President Trump.

In order for Emmanuel and Justin’s plan to work, they need the U.K., Germany, Italy and Japan to go along with it.

Italy and Japan?

Emmanuel, feeling inspired…. continues:

… oh, I think I hear ‘freedom fries’ coming over the horizon.

It’s just too funny.  The back-story is too funny.  You see, Emmanuel and Germany’s Angela Merkel refused to even engage in any discussions of an E.U. / U.S. trade agreement while the potential for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were possible.  Secretary Wilbur Ross has been trying to talk trade with the EU for months.  They have refused to discuss.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told President Trump the EU wouldn’t discuss any trade deals while the Steel and Aluminum tariffs were pending.

So President Trump removed the “pending” component, and told Wilbur Ross to just make the tariffs begin.

The EU grand plan to use leverage, backfired.

Trump doesn’t play.

WATCH [Last third of interview is pertinent]:

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Then comes this:

…. When POTUS Trump says “look forward to seeing them tomorrow“, that’s codespeak for this:

You see, the “trade ministers” might have drawn up a G6+1 statement, but that’s the trade ministers.  Emmanuel might convince the trade ministers of the G6 to go along, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the actual leaders of Italy, President Sergio Mattarella, or Japan, PM Shinzo Abe, will go along with Emmanuel’s G6+1 plan.

Oh, the G7 is looking like so much fun.

Pommes frites, anyone?

 

You see, the “trade ministers” might have drawn up a G6+1 statement, but that’s the trade ministers.  Emmanuel might convince the trade ministers of the G6 to go along, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the actual leaders of Italy, President Sergio Mattarella, or Japan, PM Shinzo Abe, will go along with Emmanuel’s G6+1 plan.

Oh, the G7 is looking like so much fun.

Pommes frites, anyone?

 

Fed is Moving to Allow Proprietary Trading Again?


 

QUESTION: Why is the Fed moving to relax the Volcker Rule and allow banks to once again engage in proprietary trading?

I figure if anyone knew the truth, it would be you

Thank you in advance

PH

ANSWER: Yes, the Federal Reserve Board wants to roll back the Volcker Rule, which was imposed to make banks safer after the 2008 meltdown. The Fed is moving to begin the administrative process aimed at significantly reducing compliance costs for financial firms but ALSO the problem behind the curtain has been that the LIQUIDITY in the markets has collapsed. Since remaining participation in the markets is still about 50% of 2007 levels, removing the banks from proprietary trading has contributed to a completely new risk – the flash crash.

The rule was intended to bar banks with federally-backed deposit insurance from suffering counter-leveraged losses by restricting their ability to bet with their own capital. Financial firms have been arguing that the rule is unnecessarily complex and almost impossible to adhere to. This is partially true. However, prosecutors who do not know how the financial markets truly function have been bringing criminal actions and demanding huge fines for basic things that have always existed and are part of any poker game. They have turned “spoofing” into a crime when in fact if you have a large position, you cannot let the other side know what you intend to do or they will front-run you every day of the week. So if you pretend you will be a buyer so you can sell, that is the nature of the game. Even the Libor Scandal was not “manipulation” of the trend in interest rates. That’s is what central banks do. They were playing within the “noise” of any market gunning for stops as the floor brokers have done since the birth of trading. They by no means altered the trend of interest rates – that is the privilege of central bankers.

Revising the Volcker rule is now something quietly supported by five agencies and among policymakers behind the curtain and it is all being driven by the lack of LIQUIDITY. Even the high-frequency trading systems shut down in the middle of high volatility. With retail participation minimal, banks out of the game, turn up the volatility and the high-frequency traders abandon ship rapidly. This allows for wide gaps in trading that are a concern for the future.

The proposed changes will be opened up for public comment for 60 days. But do not expect any serious discussions with respect to the crisis building in the decline in LIQUIDITY.

The proposal calls for the removal of an assumption included in the original rule that positions lenders hold for fewer than 60 days are proprietary. Meanwhile, the plan would scrap a component of the test for determining whether a trade is for a bank’s account. It would be replaced with new criteria based on how the bank accounts for the trades, according to the summary. They want to provide banks with more flexibility to execute trades that serve as hedges against potential losses. Banks now have to submit continuous and precise documentation to prove they are hedging. This is really onerous and in a crisis, it will magnify the events if banks cannot hedge. Nonetheless, the central purpose of the regulation of the regulation to prohibit banks from speculative trading will be maintained, but there will be a wide lateral movement to really allow them back at the speculative table. They can alter regulations but they CANNOT repeal the Volcker Rule for that would require an act of Congress.

Trade News – MAGAnomic Results Overpowering Multinational Politics…


There are visible economic indicators today that positive U.S. MAGAnomic results are overwhelming the voices of purchased political leaders trying to sell a narrative of doom around President Trump’s tariff proposals and reciprocal trade reset. A key point is the U.S. stock market growth amid tariff, trade and NAFTA withdrawal discussion. As CTH has discussed the eventual trade outcomes appear baked into the latest market analysis.

Bolstered by election results showing increased momentum for team MAGA, and decreased likelihood for a Democrat wave, the overall economic news -and factual corporate bottom line results- are flooding the zone with optimism. Amid the strong foundation for U.S. investment and economic growth, the reciprocal trade strategy is no longer heavily feared. Simply put, the ‘America First’ policies are working.

Not only are Trump’s economic policies working (jobs, wages, investment growth), but they are gaining massive momentum as analysts begin to quantify the possibilities of expanded economic growth well beyond the -formerly outrageous- 3% GDP target. The ceiling is being raised faster than the winnamins can be digested.

Amid this U.S. MAGAnomic environment, threats of counter-tariffs by Mexico, Canada and the EU are as useless as feathers in a hurricane:

(Reuters) […] EU members have given broad support to a European Commission plan to set 25 percent duties on up to 2.8 billion euros ($3.3 billion) of U.S. exports in response to what is sees as illegal U.S. action. EU exports that are now subject to U.S. tariffs are worth 6.4 billion euros. (link)

Consider the EU $3 billion tariff threat against this:

On a $20 trillion economy 3% growth = $600 billion in economic expansion.

Note: EU Tariff Feathers and U.S. Economic Hurricanes.

The best play for return-on-investment is INTO the U.S.  Exactly as planned.

This MAGAnomic win shows up in narrowing trade deficits:

(Via PPD) The Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to $46.2 billion in April. That’s down $1.0 billion from a revised $47.2 billion in March and far under the $53.1 billion monthly average of the first quarter 2018 (1Q).

The 3-month average goods and services deficit decreased $2.2 billion to $49.6 billion for the three months ending in April. Average exports increased $2.9 billion to $209.3 billion and average imports increased $0.7 billion to $259.0 billion.

The report indicates a big net-positive for second-quarter (2Q) gross domestic product (GDP), which the Atlanta Federal Reserve currently forecasts at a whopping 4.5%.  (more)

This is the domestic background for President Trump, Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to confront the aggregate trade issues with China, the EU and NAFTA.

As an outcome of the growth dynamic, the U.S. leverage carried into the trade-reset discussions is much larger than any threats made by opposition.  President Trump is likely to have fun at the G7, though I can also see him taking a few share-the-wealth “lumps out.”

Well,…. then again,…

…Maybe.

Killers.

President Trump Commutes Sentence of Alice Marie Johnson…


President Donald Trump granted clemency today for Mrs. Alice Marie Johnson, a week after Mrs. Kim Kardashian West advocated on her behalf during an Oval Office meeting with the President.

Mrs. Johnson, a 63-year-old great-grandmother is a first-time nonviolent drug offender who was given a life sentence without parole. She will be released from a federal prison in Aliceville, Alabama, where she has been serving her sentence since 1996.

White House – Today, President Donald J. Trump granted a commutation to Alice Marie Johnson, a 63-year-old great-grandmother who has served almost 22 years in Federal prison for a first-time criminal offense.

Ms. Johnson has accepted responsibility for her past behavior and has been a model prisoner over the past two decades. Despite receiving a life sentence, Alice worked hard to rehabilitate herself in prison, and act as a mentor to her fellow inmates.

Her Warden, Case Manager, and Vocational Training Instructor have all written letters in support of her clemency. According to her Warden, Arcala Washington-Adduci, since [Ms. Johnsons] arrival at this institution, she has exhibited outstanding and exemplary work ethic. She is considered to be a model inmate who is willing to go above and beyond in all work tasks.

While this Administration will always be very tough on crime, it believes that those who have paid their debt to society and worked hard to better themselves while in prison deserve a second chance.  (WH LINK)

NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow Press Conference on G7 and Trade…


National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow conducts a press conference to discuss the upcoming G7 summit in Canada; the pending North Korea Summit; and the current U.S. trade initiatives.

President Trump Signing Ceremony of the VA Mission Act – 12:15pm Livestream…


President Trump participates in the signing ceremony of the VA Mission Act of 2018, a bill that will introduce sweeping reforms to the Veterans Affairs healthcare system.  Anticipated start time 12:15pm EST

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