Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.
Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.
Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.
Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.
Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%
I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.
Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.
The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.
So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.
The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.
Posted originally on the CTH on November 3, 2024 | Sundance
First, a repeat of what I have said for over two years, “WATCH MOLDOVA“ – Their vote is today.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently reminded the EU collective, they will need to revise their pro-war stance if President Donald Trump wins the election on Tuesday. Orban is a good friend of President Trump and ideological ally of MAGA.
Despite the trillions at stake and the WEF/EU alignment that continues promoting the meat grinder in Ukraine, Prime Minister Orban is well aware that things will seismically change if President Donald Trump wins and brings the peace solution to the frenzy.
(Via Politico) – A Donald Trump victory in the United States election on Nov. 5 would force the European Union to adapt its stance on the war in Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Sunday.
“Europe cannot bear the burden of [the war] alone, and if Americans switch to peace, then we also need to adapt, and this is what we will discuss in Budapest,” Orbán said, according to a Reuters report, referring to a Nov. 7-8 meeting of European leaders in the Hungarian capital.
Orbán also reiterated his support for Trump ahead of Tuesday’s election, which sees the former U.S. president up against current Vice President Kamala Harris.
Stressing that a Trump victory is something that “I not only believe in but I also read the numbers that way,” the Hungarian leader said that “we [in Europe] need to realize that if there will be a pro-peace president in America … then Europe cannot remain pro-war.” (read more)
With a President Trump win, the democrats will immediately start banging the loud drum of The Logan Act, nonsensically trying to stop Russia and Ukraine from any ceasefire or cessation of hostilities before President Trump takes office.
Watch the Dept of State, CIA and DOJ immediately start referencing the ridiculous Logan Act. It’s as predictable as the sunrise.
Posted originally on Nov 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Next week, those attending the World Economic Conference and Virtual Plus can access this report from your portal. It concerns the prospect of capital controls that governments routinely implement during periods of war to prevent capital flight. This also includes some other capital controls imposed for other reasons. It is a guide to what to expect from our claimed “representative” Republics that represent only the self-interest of those in power and never the population.
This report will be available to non-attendees and non-virtual Attendees for $300 after the conference.
Posted originally on Nov 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
Aside from the collapse in Starmer’s popularity, he has confirmed our forecast for Britain. The left never saw someone they did not want to shake down for money. In the US, we have Trump talking about eliminating the income tax, which I worked on during the Nineties and even testified on taxation before the House Ways & Means Committee. Starmer has announced major tax hikes and higher borrowing to meet his aim of investing for long-term growth.
The tax hike as a percentage of gross domestic product to a record 38.2% will be the highest in modern British history, resulting in government spending not seen outside an emergency or war. While he claims that the additional £40 billion ($80 billion) is to invest in the future, it will undermine the future of Britain.
This year saw a Double-Directional Change on the yearly level for the pound, and we are looking at an unprecedented economic decline into 2026. This is what the LEFT refuses ever to comprehend. They are Marxists until the end.
Posted originally on Oct 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
According to data provided by the Commerce Department, the US economy grew 2.8% during Q3, beneath expectations of a 3.1% increase. GDP has slowed from the 3% posting during Q2.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 3.7% last quarter, marking the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023. The US federal government’s spending is factored into growth, albeit another reason why these data points never provide a true indicator of economic growth in the long term. The government managed to increase spending by an astounding 9.7% — 14.9% of which was spent on defense.
Personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.5%, providing a bit of good news for Fed who looks and causing optimism about a rate drop during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Core PCE remained at 2.2%.
Consumer spending, one-third of US GDP, has risen, but Americans are spending more on less. The government is not releasing the true figures or painting an accurate picture of the economy. Sure, consumer spending is up, but personal savings fell to 4.8% from 5.2%. Americans are spending more, but they are also falling into debt.
The US remains the safe haven for international capital. We saw a 5.87% increase in capital flows to the US on a monthly basis based on the Global Market Watch, and Socrates predicts it will continue to increase.
Posted originally on Oct 30, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Donald Trump has long stated that he would end the war in Ukraine if elected president. Confident in his ability to do so, the former president has stated he could end the conflict in 24 hours, and has guaranteed to do so before he actually enters the White House. He finally revealed how he intends to accomplish such a feat.
It begins by revisiting the failed Minsk Agreement – the entire premise of the current war. François Hollande and Angela Merkel representing France and Germany at the time brokered the agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitored negotiations and both sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire. Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine for one primary reason — the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were to be occupied territories that would have the autonomy to vote in their own elections.
These regions were never Ukrainian territory. It was occupied by Russians for centuries. The people there had a right to their own lives. The Ukrainians demanded they no longer speak Russian and they sought to deny them even their own religion and they were to report to Kyiv instead of Moscow. This was like Mexico reclaiming Texas and demanding English was to be outlawed and only Spanish was to be spoken and all religions were to be outlawed except allegiance to the Archbishop of Mexico.
The ethnic Russians in the Donbas did not want to submit to a central government from Kyiv itself. The Obama Administration really opposed this sort of settlement on the grounds of old-world empire theory predicated on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Such policies have led to the death of hundreds of millions of people over the centuries.
Europe brokered the Minsk Agreement as a ploy to buy time. Angela Merkel admitted a few years ago that they negotiated in bad faith with Putin simply to allow Ukraine time to fortify itself thereby buying time to build its army. She also said that at the time, NATO was weak and could not provide support to Kyiv to the extent they do currently. The Minsk agreements were signed to pretend to resolve the Donbas conflict.
WHY would Putin ever agree to any agreement with Ukraine when they NEVER comply with what they agree to. It is now abundantly clear that the Minsk agreements were NEVER intended to be carried out by the current Kyiv government. They were simply used to buy time to build up their forces for war against Russia.
Another stipulation is that Ukraine may never join NATO. Russia has repeatedly stated that it is not battling Ukraine but the NATO alliance that has them cornered. NATO has become the aggressor in this conflict that has grown to such proportions that admitting Ukraine would instantly lead to World War III under Article V that demands all NATO members attack in unison.
Trump’s former advisors have stated that America would have no role in enforcing any peace treaty agreements. This is not our war. “There are two things America will insist on. We will not have any men or women in the enforcement mechanism. We’re not paying for it. Europe is paying for it,” his former advisor added.
A strong leader like Donald Trump who does not align himself with the neocons could possibly persuade Putin, but who will persuade Zelensky? Zelensky’s Victory Plan includes the annihilation of Russia which is precisely what the neocons have been after. Who will convince the allies who have provided trillions in funding to Ukraine? Let’s also remember that the neocons are on both sides of the political spectrum and Trump would have trouble convincing his fellow Republicans to walk away from this war.
I’ve said it numerous times, but one of the most impressive traits Trump displayed to me was empathy. When I went to visit Mar-a-Lago in 2020, Trump said he was tired of calling mothers to tell them that their sons died fighting in the Middle East. It was the first time I heard a politician actually discuss the citizens on the battlefield who are sent off to die in these neocon war games. Trump said that there had been war in the Middle East for most of known modern history and America simply had no place there. Likewise, America has no place in Russia or Ukraine.
Socrates states that Trump could slow down the war cycle, but he cannot prevent the inevitable. It is true that Donald Trump could delay the onsetof the growing global conflict BUT he cannot alter the cycle. Our computer shows that war could break out by 2027, and the financial implications will be fully felt by 2028.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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