Category Economic Subjects

Jan 25 2022

Empty Shelves Have Consequences, Canadian Multinational Business Groups Ask Government to Quickly Reverse Trucker Vaccine Mandate


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 24, 2022 | Sundance | 244 Comments

The support for the Canadian trucker protest is already getting results.   As we shared previously, ‘the absence of food will change things‘, and the reason is simple, it focuses priorities.

In the bigger picture, a grassroots protest from Main Street (truckers) forces the multinationals to a position of vulnerability.  The multinationals control the politicians, so any pressure applied directly to the multinationals ends up being transmitted to their beneficiaries, the government officials.

In the modern era, the professional left has used this dynamic to pressure corporations via organized activism and leftist demands.  However, the middle class actually has more power in this type of engagement, they just don’t use it.

The Canadian trucker protest is an example of the working class using the power of their influence.  The results are immediately surfacing.

The multinational business advocacy groups in Canada are now telling the Canadian government officials to back down from their vaccination mandate against the truckers.

CANADA – Business leaders are urging Ottawa to ease vaccine mandates for cross-border truckers to relieve the congested supply chain with the United States.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended Monday the mandate as a necessary step to keep supply chains open, arguing that COVID-19 itself is the biggest risk to Canada’s economy.  But in separate statements the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Manufacturing Coalition both urged him to back down.

Perrin Beatty, the president of the Chamber, told The Canadian Press that while “we strongly favour getting as many people vaccinated as possible,” the government should allow more time before imposing the mandate on truckers.

[…] The Canadian Manufacturing Coalition, which represents over 30 manufacturing trade associations, called for a full reversal of the vaccine mandate after meeting Friday with Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne.

Dennis Darby, the president of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters which chairs the coalition, told Champagne that “Canadians are seeing empty shelves” because vaccine mandates are making supply chain bottlenecks worse.

In a statement, Darby said the meeting with Champagne was “a good first step but now we need to see concrete action by the government to start addressing these challenges, starting with reversing the trucker vaccine mandate.”  (read more)

The middle class and working class can win this battle if they keep the pressure applied.  This is the fundamental truth within the “yellow vest” movement writ large, and it is the essential truth inside all Main Street economies.

The Canadian people can win this fight.  These signals from the multinationals are the first recognition of a changed dynamic.  Any scenario that unites the middle class against the corporatist system becomes a risk to the politicians and the corporations who pay for them.

Jan 25 2022

Intemperate Joe Biden When Questioned on Inflation, Calls Reporter “A Stupid Son of a Bitch”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 24, 2022 | Sundance | 191 Comments

The White House occupant has always been known as a man of notoriously intemperate disposition.  During a brief press availability today, when questioned about the political liability of inflation, Joe Biden called Fox News reporter Peter Doocy “a stupid son of a bitch.”  WATCH:

Jan 24 2022

Wealth and Wellness


Armstrong Economics Blog/Behavioral Economics Re-Posted Jan 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Previous studies have indicated that Americans’ quality of life plateaus at an annual salary of $75,000, but that myth has been dispelled. A research article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America entitled, “Experienced well-being rises with income, even above $75,000 per year” examines 1,725,994 experience-sampling reports from 33,391 employed US adults. The study believes prior reports failed to accurately measure “well-being” and the actual emotional implications of income.

Numerous reports begin by analyzing the Satisfaction With Life Scale developed in 1985:

  • In most ways my life is close to my ideal.
  • The conditions of my life are excellent.
  • I am satisfied with my life.
  • So far I have gotten the important things I want in life.
  • If I could live my life over, I would change almost nothing.

The noted study incorporated these questions as well as others such as, “To what extent do you feel in control of your current situation?” The test also asked participants for their input on optimism for the future. The study found that the well-being plateau of $75,000 was no longer accurate. “There was also no evidence of an income threshold at which experienced and evaluative well-being diverged, suggesting that higher incomes are associated with both feeling better day-to-day and being more satisfied with life overall,” the abstract stated. “This suggests that higher incomes may still have potential to improve people’s day-to-day well-being, rather than having already reached a plateau for many people in wealthy countries.”

With inflation running at a nearly 40-year high and the prices of the most basic necessities such as food and shelter at unsustainable levels, people seeing money as a safety net is understandable. Personal Capital’s 2022 Wealth & Wellness Index found that Americans need an income of $122,000 to feel “financially healthy.” Only 9% of Americans and 31% of households earn over six-figures, so this annual income is not feasible for the majority of the population. Only 67% of participants said they have enough money to pay bills in full and on time. Around 57% say they have some form of retirement savings could manage an unforeseen expense of $500 without worry, and that figure only rises to 63% when asked if they could afford a $100 unforeseen expense. Despite previous notions, there is in fact a correlation between wealth and wellness.

Jan 24 2022

Rentals to Increase by At Least 3.6% Across the US


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jan 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Freddie Mac’s annual Multifamily Outlook report foresees rent rising by 3.6% across the US in 2022. “Given the robust demand for housing this year, we believe that upward price pressure for both rental and for-sale housing will continue in the short term as we continue to experience an overall housing shortage across all housing types,” the report noted. Furthermore, as CPI data is lagged, the sharp increase in rent prices has not fully factored in inflation. “We believe the sharp increase in housing costs captured by the CPI over the past two months is likely just the beginning.”

The report stated that consumers believe inflation will decline over the next five years, but expectations for 2022 have increased by 50 bps to 3%. For the 12 months ending in October 2021, rents increased 14.9% on average. The report noted additional contributing factors for rising demand:

  • Renters who would have moved last year who did not due to the pandemic
  • Two years’ worth of college graduates who are leaving home for the first time
  • Professionally managed units (which this data is derived from) were more able to adapt to changing conditions brought on by the pandemic than smaller operators and therefore more likely to capture the demand than smaller operators
  • A reallocation of budget toward housing from government stimulus or cutting other expenses during the pandemic
  • Former roommates choosing to live on their own

High-density areas that already experienced a pandemic exodus are expected to have the lowest growth rates. Rent is expected to drastically rise above the national average in the following cities:

  1. Phoenix: 7.6%
  2. Las Vegas: 7.0%
  3. Tampa, Fla.: 6.9%
  4. Tuscon, Ariz.: 6.5%
  5. Albuquerque, N.M.: 6.2%
  6. Atlanta: 5.9%
  7. Sacramento, Calif.: 5.8%
  8. Riverside, Calif.: 5.7%
  9. West Palm Beach, Fla.: 5.5%
  10. Fort Lauderdale, Fla.: 5.2%
Jan 24 2022

The Risk of Violence is Increasing – A Day of Global Protests


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jan 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

These people have put themselves out there and just like there were attempts to kill Hitler, there will no doubt be someone or more than one who attempts to kill Gates or Schwab. You cannot turn the world upside down and expect people to accept it. Karl Marx’s idea of you will own nothing and be happy, led to the death of over 200 million people. There have been those who wondered if someone had assassinated Hitler, look at how many others would have survived.

Even journalists had better think twice about supporting this Great Reset. They too are putting their lives at risk and those of their families. All it takes is one person who has lost everything to go rogue. Now that we entered 2022, the risk of more violence has only increased.

Today has been a massive day of civil unrest globally. Politicians had better begin listening to the people rather than to Gates and Schwab. The fact that to even see any protests, we must turn to Rumble for YouTube is just part of the propaganda.

https://twitter.com/PincherFisher/status/1485307079157956610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485307079157956610%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Fworld-news%2Fcivil-unrest%2Fthe-risk-of-violence-is-increasing-a-day-of-global-protests%2F

Jan 23 2022

A Note About the DC Metro Area Food Store Shortages That Must Be Emphasized


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 22, 2022 | sundance | 264 Comments

I know most CTH readers are aware of the issue – the action and consequence side of things.  However, the current conditions in/around our nation’s capitol deserve to be emphasized in order to share with those who are not connecting the dots.

The shortage of food products, in/around the metro-DC area, is a direct consequence of that same area demanding Vaccination Passports to enter any venue providing “food away from home.”

The vaccine passport mandate blocks people from restaurants, dining, bars and other sources of food.  The process forces people into grocery stores where they are encountering shortages.

In essence, what we are seeing in the DC-Metro area is a microcosm of what previously happened nationally with shortages in food supplies and basic essentials.  The retail food delivery system in our nation is not designed or prepared to shift large numbers of people out of the “food away from home” lane and into the “food prepared at home lane.”  It really is that simple.

Even small percentages of demand shift in a very detailed and complex supply chain -already operating at maximum capacity- can have massive consequences.   One fractured gear tooth in a system of thousands of interconnected gears can bring the entire machine to a halt.

The DC outcome is an excellent example of bureaucracy and political policy being dictated by ‘elites’, out of touch leftists and governing officials, who do not have the skills to follow their policies to their natural conclusion.   This is also an example of private sector experts who are kowtowed and fearful of telling those government officials they are wrong.

There are people who have been saying for two years these supply chain issues will come to an uncomfortable reality if the policies are not reversed.  These are major socioeconomic outcomes that are downstream from dictates and fiats.  Reasonable and prudent voices have been downplayed, denied, cast aside and ignored while these insane leftist governmental policies have been executed.

Effective immediately, or at least as soon as possible, every venue that can provide food on a commercial basis must be removed from all COVID regulations, including vaccine passports.

Restaurants, school lunchrooms, cafeterias, industrial kitchens, hotels, bars, food trucks and every possible venue for the delivery of freshly cooked meals must immediately be reactivated, and all terms and conditions for visiting those venues, like “vaccine passports”, must be cancelled quickly.

If they are not, and worse, if the market restrictions are expanded beyond current status (example truck driver vaccine mandates), there is going to be a worsening retail food crisis as the total food supply chain begins to collapse even further.

If you want to learn more, or you need to share with family – REVIST THIS OUTLINE. 

If all governing officials in/around North America do not quickly reverse their position, things will get worse.

Hope is not a strategy.  Act, or be acted upon.

Jan 23 2022

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser Asks Residents to Begin Voluntary Rationing of Food at Grocery Stores


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 22, 2022 | sundance | 391 Comments

For those of you who have prepared it is wise to remember the advice that always accompanies the final stages of preparation.  Once you are prepared, shut up, zip it, run silent and run deep.

The reason is simple comrades, when the “voluntary rationing” phase concludes, those who have prepared are quickly cast as ‘hoarders” and targeted by those who created the desperation.  It has always been thus.

DC Mayor and COVID Compliance Minister, Muriel Bowser, asks residents in/around her region to enter a phase of voluntary rationing.  What comes after the voluntary phase is the part many have been studiously preparing to avoid.

In the bigger picture… I find it rather revealing that only when leftist policies are followed to their natural conclusion do you see officials in the leftist economic system they created, a system not coincidentally always based on the outcome of scarcity, asking people not to engage in economic activity.

Chasing socialism always creates an outcome where the expressed intent from government is NOT to buy stuff, rationing.  Socialism, or leftism in its modern form, always creates scarcity; it is the diametrically opposite outcome of a free capitalistic society.

Jan 22 2022

Ireland Lifting Nearly ALL COVID Restrictions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Ireland is lifting nearly all COVID restrictions while Austria, France, and Germany screw their people even more at the direction of the World Economic Forum. Alexander Georg Nicolas Schallenberg, the Chancellor of Austria, who is a lawyer, should have known better than to allow Austria to impose the harshest COVID restrictions in the world.

When we look at the Austrian share market we can see that here too it has not exceeded the 2007 high. The economic policies of Austria are nits and these COVID Restrictions put the country at risk of a very major economic depression.

Jan 22 2022

Emerging Markets & Political Crisis Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Jan 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

China has asked the Fed to please not raise rates. This has confused many to wonder when China would be asking the Fed not to raise rates. The real reason is the crisis we have in emerging markets and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Emerging Markets are one of the main victims of tightening US monetary policy. Emerging Markets have splurged by issuing more than $3 trillion dollars in US dollar-denominated debt and that was going into 2019 -(private and public combined). The Federal Reserve’s post-pandemic policy to respond to inflation with higher rates is exposing the vulnerabilities in emerging markets with high private external debt, and that includes China.

In order to sell the debt to the West, it has been a standard practice for more than 100 years to issue debt in the currency in which you seek to raise capital. Before World War I, the British pound was the reserve currency of the world and Britain was the financial capital of the world. Hence, we find bonds from around the world, including public and private, issued in British pounds. Today, the emerging markets have issued debt in dollars. They have taken on the risk of both US interest rates as well as the value of the dollar.

So far, China has benefited whereby provinces and companies that issued debt in dollars have seen at least a 15% profit as the dollar has declined against the yuan thanks to the stupid COVID policies that have drastically harmed the global economy.

Of course, the Euro has been under tremendous selling pressure as they have embraced Schwab’s Great Reset and have been deliberately crushing their economy pushing for a Green New World Order decades before they have any replacement for fossil fuels.

The Fed’s position of raising interest rates to fight inflation is a classic Keynesian Textbook, but the problem is Keynesian Economics has utterly failed. Jenet Yellen, the latest to join the Schwab Marxist agenda, has come out and announced that the Fed will do its best to reduce inflation their COVID policies created, and they have little choice with Biden’s polls collapsing.  The public always blames or credits the president for the economic trends and this time the Democrats live in fear that they will be thrown out of office. The January 6th Investigation will desperately try to criminally charge Trump and they think this will save their majority. This is only fulfilling the Panic Cycle our computer projected for the 2022 elections and again in 2024.

So the Fed is not likely to lower rates to help emerging markets. It will be far worse if the dollar starts to rise after February. That will cause a lot of economic problems throughout the emerging markets.

Jan 22 2022

On Track


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 21, 2022 | Sundance | 159 Comments

What they envision (top) and where they are (bottom).

Right on track…

Prescient.