Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; it is easy to see why the government wanted Socrates. You said Monday would be the low then a bounce and that is what unfolds. You forecast so many markets and you get it to the day. Others claim this is the guy who called 2008 so buy his latest forecast resting on a single forecast. Your track record is far beyond anyone ever. How can you do this? Is the future predetermined?
HC
Many people have written in to ask the same question, for example: “I had begun settling on the position (with relative comfort) that while technicals provide insights into the market, its the market makers that manipulate conditions to the point of driving it in one direction or the other – unless of course, there’s a significant fundamental reason for the market to be guided by the invisible hand.
However, after experiencing Socrates and learning more about your approach, I find it challenging (mentally) to accept that there isn’t a pre-designed aspect guiding markets the way they roll.”
Others have asked: “Does Socrates foresee the birth and emergence of great teachers to come who have the capacity of overcoming the Deep State and bringing the world back into an economic balance?” Then there are questions such as: “Because Socrates was created by you, does it carry an inherent bias on economic theories about the world that it generates 1000 reports on a day for? Is it not impossible to truly be conscious and to accurately see the global economic landscape without having a fundamental empathy (being truly human to know what human nature is).”
ANSWER: I am an avid student of history. I noticed from an early age that no empire ever lasts forever. The question I had in my mind was how and why did they fall? I pursued my own course and academics held no answer. I would say there were two incidents when I was in high school that perhaps set me on a course of independent review. I was given The Great Crash to read and nowhere in there could you find one word about government defaults. Later I discovered a copy of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs and after reading the chapter of events during 1931, I came to realize like so many throughout the centuries that history might be partially correct perhaps, but let us not forget, it was written by the victors to those who tended to record what suited their preferred conclusion to support their theories.
I have explained how I got a job during High School and worked in a coin/bullion store to earn money to go on a trip to Europe. I was in history class and the high school professor brought in an old film The Toast of New York. It was a film about the Panic of 1869 and the attempt of Jim Fisk to corner the gold market. In this clip, you will see what sparked my imagination and sense of curiosity given my exposure to reality by working with bullion when gold was fixed at $35 an ounce under Bretton Woods. Jim Fisk is at the ticker tape, and he then turns to his girlfriend and quotes gold at $162. How could gold be $162 in 1869 and $35 then? I was being taught that progress meant society moved in a linear fashion. So how was it possible that gold could be $162 in 1869 and $35 today in the 1960s?
At first, I assumed it was just a movie. But it bothered me. There was a QUESTION in the back of my mind that would not be answered. I went to the library and looked up the price of gold in the microfilm copies of The New York Times. There it was, the quote, $162. It was real. It profoundly shook my belief system to the very foundation of what I was being taught. Then merged with the realization that Galbraith cherry-picked history to support his socialist philosophy, suddenly;y I was confronted with the cold hard fact that what was being taught in school was not the truth but merely someone’s opinion.
When I went to physics class, I was told nothing was random. Yet when I went to economics class, I was told everything was random and therefore we can manipulate society under Keynesian Economics to eliminate depressions and recessions. Obviously, one was correct and the other was dead wrong. Social Sciences has nothing to do with “science” but were nothing more than an indoctrination into a philosophy, precisely as Klaus Schwab has done with his Young Global Leaders.
So is the future predetermined? There are two futures. The first is our personal future and people prefer to believe that they have free will and thus reject the idea of a predestined cycle. There are so many doors to the future, but they have the free will to decide which door to take. Will they act independently or follow the mob blindly like wearing a mask while driving a car alone. The independent can see the choice, whereas the latter just follows the mob and will suffer the predetermined outcome.
The second future is that of the mob which actually dictated the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. The phrase “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men” was written in 1887 by Lord Acton. The truth behind those words rings true throughout time in memorial. We are witnessing this once more with Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, and George Soros. What makes such people think they know a better way for the world to function? Perhaps it is the ultimate power that blinds them to the reality that they elevate themselves way above society.
The rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states is not entirely dependent upon human nature. Even these people arguing for Global Warming that they switched to climate change when the cold confronted their theories, is ponce more rewriting history to fit their predetermined conclusion. Climate has always moved through cycles. They simply are anti-fossil fuels and do everything in their power to support their predetermined conclusion that they must be stopped.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD. Emperor Justinian proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. For you see, CO2 is not solely produced by fossil fuels. When a forest is on fire, it gives off CO2, and before fossil fuels, they burned wood to stay warm. Burning crude oil releases less carbon dioxide than burning coal. Since ancient times, they have been burning peat for fuel. That is far worse than even coal.
Of course, climate change people are not interested in the truth. They have already made up their mind and they will ignore all other evidence. Trudeau even put a climate change tax on every household as if that can change the climate. You can win an argument with someone who is intelligent and interested in the truth. You will NEVER win an argument against a fool or someone who is entrenched in their bias. They are incapable of independent thought and will never change course. Hence, their personal future is tied to that of the mob which is predetermined.
History repeats, but it does so because it is guided by Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand. Even John Maynard Keynes, the father of this modern age of New Economics which is now collapsing, came to realize that his theories that society could be manipulated to eliminate depressions and recessions would never work. Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, had even concluded that the Business Cycle defeated the “New Economics” of Keynes where there emerged “the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.” He called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.
Even the previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve Arthur Burns came to the same conclusion – the Business Cycle would always win. Thus, even governments could NOT manipulate the economy or markets to produce the desired result.
As far as does Socrates “foresee the birth and emergence of great teachers to come who have the capacity of overcoming the Deep State and bringing the world back into an economic balance?” Socrates does not project individuals. It forecast that 2016 was the first time we could see a third-party candidate take the White House and that was put out in 1985. That was 31.4 years into this ECM wave which began 1985.65 that produce the very day that Trump became president – 2017.05. It did not predict it would be Trump over some other individuals. But history appears to produce the opportunity where some individuals will step up and see the opportunity for change. Socrates predicts turmoil between here into 2032, but there will be people who come forward to defeat Klaus Schwab and all his Young Global Leaders who are anti-humanity and assume that we are all worker
Blog/Understanding Cycles
Posted Feb 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; it is easy to see why the government wanted Socrates. You said Monday would be the low then a bounce and that is what unfolds. You forecast so many markets and you get it to the day. Others claim this is the guy who called 2008 so buy his latest forecast resting on a single forecast. Your track record is far beyond anyone ever. How can you do this? Is the future predetermined?
HC
Many people have written in to ask the same question, for example: “I had begun settling on the position (with relative comfort) that while technicals provide insights into the market, its the market makers that manipulate conditions to the point of driving it in one direction or the other – unless of course, there’s a significant fundamental reason for the market to be guided by the invisible hand.
However, after experiencing Socrates and learning more about your approach, I find it challenging (mentally) to accept that there isn’t a pre-designed aspect guiding markets the way they roll.”
Others have asked: “Does Socrates foresee the birth and emergence of great teachers to come who have the capacity of overcoming the Deep State and bringing the world back into an economic balance?” Then there are questions such as: “Because Socrates was created by you, does it carry an inherent bias on economic theories about the world that it generates 1000 reports on a day for? Is it not impossible to truly be conscious and to accurately see the global economic landscape without having a fundamental empathy (being truly human to know what human nature is).”
ANSWER: I am an avid student of history. I noticed from an early age that no empire ever lasts forever. The question I had in my mind was how and why did they fall? I pursued my own course and academics held no answer. I would say there were two incidents when I was in high school that perhaps set me on a course of independent review. I was given The Great Crash to read and nowhere in there could you find one word about government defaults. Later I discovered a copy of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs and after reading the chapter of events during 1931, I came to realize like so many throughout the centuries that history might be partially correct perhaps, but let us not forget, it was written by the victors to those who tended to record what suited their preferred conclusion to support their theories.
I have explained how I got a job during High School and worked in a coin/bullion store to earn money to go on a trip to Europe. I was in history class and the high school professor brought in an old film The Toast of New York. It was a film about the Panic of 1869 and the attempt of Jim Fisk to corner the gold market. In this clip, you will see what sparked my imagination and sense of curiosity given my exposure to reality by working with bullion when gold was fixed at $35 an ounce under Bretton Woods. Jim Fisk is at the ticker tape, and he then turns to his girlfriend and quotes gold at $162. How could gold be $162 in 1869 and $35 then? I was being taught that progress meant society moved in a linear fashion. So how was it possible that gold could be $162 in 1869 and $35 today in the 1960s?
At first, I assumed it was just a movie. But it bothered me. There was a QUESTION in the back of my mind that would not be answered. I went to the library and looked up the price of gold in the microfilm copies of The New York Times. There it was, the quote, $162. It was real. It profoundly shook my belief system to the very foundation of what I was being taught. Then merged with the realization that Galbraith cherry-picked history to support his socialist philosophy, suddenly;y I was confronted with the cold hard fact that what was being taught in school was not the truth but merely someone’s opinion.
When I went to physics class, I was told nothing was random. Yet when I went to economics class, I was told everything was random and therefore we can manipulate society under Keynesian Economics to eliminate depressions and recessions. Obviously, one was correct and the other was dead wrong. Social Sciences has nothing to do with “science” but were nothing more than an indoctrination into a philosophy, precisely as Klaus Schwab has done with his Young Global Leaders.
So is the future predetermined? There are two futures. The first is our personal future and people prefer to believe that they have free will and thus reject the idea of a predestined cycle. There are so many doors to the future, but they have the free will to decide which door to take. Will they act independently or follow the mob blindly like wearing a mask while driving a car alone. The independent can see the choice, whereas the latter just follows the mob and will suffer the predetermined outcome.
The second future is that of the mob which actually dictated the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. The phrase “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men” was written in 1887 by Lord Acton. The truth behind those words rings true throughout time in memorial. We are witnessing this once more with Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, and George Soros. What makes such people think they know a better way for the world to function? Perhaps it is the ultimate power that blinds them to the reality that they elevate themselves way above society.
The rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states is not entirely dependent upon human nature. Even these people arguing for Global Warming that they switched to climate change when the cold confronted their theories, is ponce more rewriting history to fit their predetermined conclusion. Climate has always moved through cycles. They simply are anti-fossil fuels and do everything in their power to support their predetermined conclusion that they must be stopped.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD. Emperor Justinian proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. For you see, CO2 is not solely produced by fossil fuels. When a forest is on fire, it gives off CO2, and before fossil fuels, they burned wood to stay warm. Burning crude oil releases less carbon dioxide than burning coal. Since ancient times, they have been burning peat for fuel. That is far worse than even coal.
Of course, climate change people are not interested in the truth. They have already made up their mind and they will ignore all other evidence. Trudeau even put a climate change tax on every household as if that can change the climate. You can win an argument with someone who is intelligent and interested in the truth. You will NEVER win an argument against a fool or someone who is entrenched in their bias. They are incapable of independent thought and will never change course. Hence, their personal future is tied to that of the mob which is predetermined.
History repeats, but it does so because it is guided by Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand. Even John Maynard Keynes, the father of this modern age of New Economics which is now collapsing, came to realize that his theories that society could be manipulated to eliminate depressions and recessions would never work. Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, had even concluded that the Business Cycle defeated the “New Economics” of Keynes where there emerged “the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.” He called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.
Even the previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve Arthur Burns came to the same conclusion – the Business Cycle would always win. Thus, even governments could NOT manipulate the economy or markets to produce the desired result.
As far as does Socrates “foresee the birth and emergence of great teachers to come who have the capacity of overcoming the Deep State and bringing the world back into an economic balance?” Socrates does not project individuals. It forecast that 2016 was the first time we could see a third-party candidate take the White House and that was put out in 1985. That was 31.4 years into this ECM wave which began 1985.65 that produce the very day that Trump became president – 2017.05. It did not predict it would be Trump over some other individuals. But history appears to produce the opportunity where some individuals will step up and see the opportunity for change. Socrates predicts turmoil between here into 2032, but there will be people who come forward to defeat Klaus Schwab and all his Young Global Leaders who are anti-humanity and assume that we are all worker bees to be herded and controlled.
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Being a student of history, I realized that there is no way I can foresee what might happen 100 years from now. Will we have new energy? Will we inhabit other planets beyond Mars? ASll I could do was to teach Socrates how I would analyze and not inject any personal theory. There was no inherent bias on economic theories. I allowed it total freedom to come back and teach me how the world functioned. There was never any hardwire set of theories that if interest rates rise sell stocks. It was very clear that no such relationship was ever constant.
The stock market has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates twice in history. So how can anyone forecast what will happen if the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates?
Indeed, the Fed raised rates throughout Trump’s Administration yet the stock market rallied. No relationship is ever cast in stone.
Some have asked how can Socrates forecast gold would rise and silver would decline at times. The two are not always joined at the hip.
So to conclude, the future is PREDETERMINED insofar as there will always be a rise and fall to every empire, nation, and city-state. That does not mean that our individual fate is predetermined. There are those of us who see the trend and are not so blind to the point that they just mindlessly join the crowd. This is evident right now even between the vaxed & un-vaxed. This is also why Schwab has ordered his Young Global Leaders to crush the un-vaxed for he wants total obedience to impose his economic theory upon the world.
Centinel2012 