Category Inflation

Jul 5 2022

Manhunt Underway as Suspect Shoots 16 People During July 4th Celebration in Highland Park, Illinois


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance

During a July 4th celebration in Highland Park, a suburb north of Chicago, a gunman has opened fire shooting at least 16 people and reported killing 6 people.  A press conference is pending.  The shooting took place during a parade to celebrate the Fourth of July.  {Press Conference Livestream}  The shooter is NOT in custody.

Suspect description: White Male, 18 to 20 years of age, long black hair, small build, white or light blue t-shirt.   A manhunt is underway to capture the suspect. According to local officials the shooter was positioned on a rooftop when he opened fire.

Illinois (via NBC) – […] Sixteen people were shot and at least five people were killed Monday morning in a shooting at Highland Park’s Independence Day parade, officials confirmed, urging residents to continue to “shelter in place” as the gunman remains at large.

The shooting happened just after 10 a.m. in downtown Highland Park, according to reports. A large police presence from the state and neighboring suburban Chicago departments was seen along the parade route.

“Highland Park Police are responding to an active shooter incident that occurred in downtown Highland Park during the 4th of July parade,” the city of Highland Park wrote in a statement. “This is an active incident. All individuals are advised to shelter in place. Law enforcement agencies are searching for the suspect; evidence of a firearm has been recovered. Numerous law enforcement officers are responding and have secured a perimeter around downtown Highland Park. 16 people have been transferred to the hospital; 5 individuals are confirmed deceased.” (more)

Jul 4 2022

Sunday Talks, John Kirby Defends White House Energy and Economic Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance 

John Kirby is the former Pentagon spokesperson who is now the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications.  The people in/around the White House have shifted Kirby, a very good spinner of parseltongue, into a place where he can give the media an impression of White House competency.

The LGBTQ, racially inclusive and woke checkbox hires are not up to the task of their positions.  Incompetence is running amok.  As a result, it is somewhat ironic and representative the Biden hypocrisy, that Kirby is needed to take the pressure away from administration checkbox hires.  In this interview Kirby defends the White House policy on the Russia-Ukraine war, interventionist and dependent foreign policy, and the energy policy that has resulted in high gas prices.

Video prompted to 04:05, where the topic of Biden’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is discussed.  WATCH:

Jul 2 2022

Cargo Routed Away from West Coast Ports as Labor Union Contracts Expire


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 1, 2022 | Sundance

Keep all of the Biden administration visits to the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach and Port of Oakland in mind (aka the hide the ships program) as you review this pending issue with port labor unions.   The labor union contracts expired at 5:00pm today.  Massive wage increases, the result of inflation, are demanded by the unions and White House is likely to get involved (if they are not already).

In a very weird economic scenario, the Biden administration actually benefits from a port stoppage as imports are a deduction to GDP and the U.S. economy is presumably on the “zero” growth bubble.   If the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates a negative GDP in the second quarter (not likely for political reasons), the Biden administration would officially be responsible for a recession.  [Any delay in import quantification helps shape the economic statistics; however, Q2 ended yesterday.]

Additionally, port infrastructure specialist, John D. Porcari, is part of the Biden administration economic team.  Porcari shaped the response to the import and supply chain crisis in 2021 that formed the hilarious ‘hide the ships’ strategy.   Porcari works to prop-up the insufferable Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who has no idea what he’s doing.

CALIFORNIA – LOS ANGELES, July 1 (Reuters) – The contract covering more than 22,000 workers at 29 U.S. West Coast ports expires late on Friday, dialing up worries that labor disruption could roil the nation’s battered supply chains, stoke inflation and threaten a weakening economy.

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) employer group, which declined comment for this report, said in a rare joint statement on June 14 that they were not planning any work stoppages or lockouts that would worsen supply chain logjams.

That matters because when the contract expires at 5 p.m. PDT(0000 GMT Saturday), so does its “no strike” clause, said Peter Tirschwell, vice president of maritime, trade & supply chain at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

History suggests a last-minute extension is not likely. The union in November rejected a one-year contract extension, saying its members had already granted a three-year extension to the current contract.

[…] Meanwhile, wary shippers are not taking any chances. They are routing cargo away from the West Coast to avoid potential labor-related slowdowns, particularly at the nation’s busiest seaport complex at Los Angeles/Long Beach that handle nearly $500 billion in cargo annually. That is driving up their costs and contributing to backups at ports in New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Houston.

The last West Coast port labor contract negotiation broke down in 2015 after nine months of talks. Dockworkers stopped work for eight days, a move that gummed up U.S. supply chains and siphoned an estimated $8 billion from the Southern California economy.

U.S. President Joe Biden met with the ILWU and the PMA in Los Angeles on June 10.

Any disruptions at Pacific Coast ports that handle almost 40% of imports to the United States could send transportation costs even higher, exacerbating pressure on a softening economy that is sinking Biden’s approval ratings.

“We’ve never had a White House that is all over these negotiations the way they are now,” Tirschwell said. (read more)

Hmmm….  Opportunity knocks?

A labor union stoppage would be bad for the economy although statistically good for Biden, and any extended work stoppage would be an excuse for empty shelves, shortages and increased ‘demand side’ inflation that might surface.   Huh, funny that.

Understand Operation Hide The Ships Here

Jun 26 2022

This is all COLLAPSING and they’re making it worse | Redacted with Clayton Morris


Redacted News  Published originally on Rumble on June 23, 2022 

President Biden keeps trying to spin the inflation as Putin’s Price Hike as he rolls out a ridiculous gas tax holiday. The New York Times now admits Russian sanctions are a failure. And now they’re saying Unions are Putin’s fault.

Jun 26 2022

Inflation Creating Cracks in the G7


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Phone conversations with sources are revealing that inflation is starting to create cracks in the unity of the G7 against Russia for the summit of G7 nations in Bavaria (June 26-28). Already, the leaders of the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan are not in accord. The people are not in support of this endless war with Russia and are looking at their personal costs thanks to inflation. The Europeans which include Germany, France, and Italy are expressing that the people want an end to this war and that Ukraine should surrender the Donbas. They are not prepared to see their living standards collapse for a war that they see as a civil war. This is starting to show up in polls that they have been taking.

The UK is taking the position of the Baltic States and Poland who collectively fear that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine that they will be next. This seems to be really propaganda that they have bought from Zelensky. Putin has made NO EFFORT to conquer Ukraine. If that was the objective, you first take out the power grid, then communications, followed by the water supply. Zelensky has been willing to sacrifice his own people for the territory that is occupied by Russians who he hates. It takes a blind politician not to see through Zelensky’s hatred and stuffing hundreds of million offshore.

Indeed, if China is smart, it can continue to reduce exports and force prices up even higher in the West. Likewise, the rising inflation may not be because of the war, but the lockdowns caused the collapse of the supply chain and now many are starting to blame Western sanctions for the rising costs of gas and oil, and the massive shortage of wheat and fertilizer. As I have said before, one major tactic in war is to undermine your opponent’s currency. With this crop of world leaders, we have the worst possible people in place in human history. They cannot see that they have made the West vulnerable. Our computer should that wars will escalate starting next year, but international war is more likely after 2024.

My fear is that the sheer stupidity that now dominates world leaders here in the West are playing checkers while Putin and Xi are playing chess. Even Boris Johnson in the UK has announced he effectively wants to be a dictator for life. He said he has no intentions of leaving his position until the mid-2030s!

And Klauss Schwabs wants to eliminate Democracy!

They do not want any more Trumps to come to play in their sandbox.

Jun 24 2022

Manufacturing Index Drops Far Below Expectations – Biggest Single Month Drop Since 2020 Pandemic Impact


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2022 | Sundance

U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better).  The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs.  This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.

Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices.  This has been their story and they have stuck to it.  However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy.  Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.

The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting.  CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year.   Here is the evidence:

US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May.  This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years.  Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.

Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand.  Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders.  The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.

Look at the PMI trendline and you can clearly see what we have been discussing on these pages since March of 2021.   Consumer demand has been dropping in direct proportion to the dramatic rise in inflation (consumer prices).

At the exact moment that U.S. inflation began spiking in housing, energy, fuel and food, consumer demand for non-essential purchases, durable goods, started dropping.  This is a natural outcome that mirrors your own experience in checkbook economics.

When food, fuel and energy cost you more, you stop buying stuff and start prioritizing.

Following the path of the “build back better” agenda, the U.S. version called “Green New Deal,” meant the Biden administration had to continue denying that any demand side contraction was taking place.   However, it is clear from the indexes under the control of purchasing managers that orders for factory goods have been dropping.

The same is true on the services side of the PMI.  Demand for services are being prioritized, and demand for non-essential services are dropping.

The U.S. economy is contracting.  Denial abounds.

FXStreet – The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI plunged to 52.4 (flash) in June from 57 in May, missing the market expectation of 56 by a wide margin. This report revealed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a much weaker pace in early June than it did in May.

Further details of the publication revealed that the Composite PMI declined to 51.2 from 53.6, compared to analysts’ estimate of 53.7.

Commenting on the data, “the pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. (more)

The White House will blame Russia.

Jun 18 2022

White House Solution to Gas Prices, Send Taxpayer Funded Gas Cards to Taxpayers Who Cannot Afford Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Y’all saw this coming months ago.  The Biden administration is now considering sending taxpayer funded “gas cards” to taxpayers who cannot afford the gasoline prices created by the Biden administration energy policy.  Yes, murica’ it’s a circle of stupid.

WASHINGTON – […] Biden officials are taking a second look at whether the federal government could send rebate cards out to millions of American drivers to help them pay at gas stations — an idea they examined months ago before ruling it out. Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards, two people familiar with the matter said. White House officials also fear there would be no way to prevent consumers from using them for purchases other than gasoline, according to another person familiar with the discussions.

[…] Biden aides have also looked in recent days at invoking the Defense Production Act to move diesel and other refined products should localized shortages materialize, two people familiar with the matter said.

[…] The revived brainstorming reflects how higher fuel costs have emerged as one of the Biden administration’s chief political threats and a serious hurdle for the economy overall. (read more)

Jun 17 2022

The Federal Reserve Cannot Combat Inflation Alone


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was notably frustrated when pressured about the Fed’s role in inflation. During his Q&A session this Wednesday, Powell plainly stated that the Federal Reserve alone could not combat inflation. It is far more complex than simply raising rates and hoping for the best. The Federal Reserve cannot increase the supply to meet demand. They have no say over clogged ports and closed factories. The Federal Reserve cannot reverse Biden’s policies that have made America energy-dependent, nor can it reserve sanctions against countries that hold essential supplies. As an independent entity, the Federal Reserve has no control over tariffs or diplomatic relations with regard to trade. Notably, the Federal Reserve cannot combat excessive government spending.

The US just sent another billion to Ukraine and plans to continue funding another endless war that does not support any domestic policy objectives. Jerome Powell has no control over the promises politicians make on the campaign trail to distribute free money to the public in exchange for votes. At any moment, lawmakers can implement policies that completely throw the entire economy off track. They had no say in the lockdowns or restrictions that crippled the economy in 2020.

The Federal Reserve miscalculated the situation by artificially lowering rates for a long time. They failed to look at other clear examples, such as Japan, and realize what has and has not worked historically. Powell admitted long ago that he misjudged the severity of inflation and was wrong to call it “transitory.” Unfortunately, when people in power make mistakes, the repercussions cause global shockwaves. Although separate entities, the White House needs to help the Federal Reserve tame inflation by re-evaluating its policies that are directly causing prices to rise.

Jun 17 2022

Putin: They Even Named Inflation After Me


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Vladimir Putin is not suffering from sanctions. The West has shot itself in the foot by banning essential Russian imports without an alternative in place. “They even named inflation after me,” he joked, hinting at the “Putin price hike” western politicians have been declaring.

The difference now, according to Putin, is that the West attempted to shun Russia. “In the Soviet times when we cut ourselves off, created the so-called Iron Curtain, we created it with our own hands,” he admitted. Putin admitted the Iron Curtain was a mistake that he has learned from. Anyone claiming Putin is pro-Communist or eager to bring back Cold War-era policies is sadly mistaken.

As I have mentioned, Russia has created a new G8. They have alliances with Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Iran, and Turkey. They claim that this new G8 will not partake in sanction wars and noted that they are already 24.4% ahead of the former G8 in terms of GDP per capita. They are welcoming new alliances as well. Countries previously begged to join Western coalitions, but they are now failing due to a flawed design from the outset. All of this is part of what our computer has been indicating – the financial capital of the world is beginning to drift from West to East.

Jun 15 2022

Joe Biden is Yelling at Everyone Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 14, 2022

June 14, 2022 | Sundance | 261 Comments

Earlier today, angry Joe was channeling his inner thug as he harkened back to the good old days when labor unions were cracking skulls on behalf of the communists and socialists.  Giving the pretense of connection to the working class is a performance technique Biden has used throughout his career, but it holds absolutely no basis in reality.

Appearing at the AFL-CIO convention today, Biden began yelling at the brotherhood.  In his mind anger, violence and conflict is what he believes organized labor is all about, so his performance is designed to convey that connection.  It’s more than a little weird, it’s creepy. WATCH:

.