Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
They say it takes a generation to reshape the way a nation views its military allegiance. Germany dwindled its military capacity significantly after its defeat in the last world war, wearing their loss as a badge of shame. Neither the people nor the government wanted to reinvigorate Germany’s military power after the destructive nation building and expansion under the Third Reich. The times have changed, as they always do, and Germany is now on the defensive. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz envisions forming the largest army in Europe.
“Building up our military is our top priority,” said Merz. “From now on, the federal government will provide the military with as much money as it needs to ensure it becomes Europe’s strongest armed force. We are Europe’s most populous country and Europe’s biggest economy, and nothing less should be expected from us. Our partners not only expect this — they demand it.”
Merz stated that Germany will spend 3.5% of its GDP on military defense over the next decade, placing spending as a percentage on par with the United States. Germany already found a loophole to spend on defense indefinitely after declaring an emergency and deciding to ignore prior military spending limits. The Germany government now plans to spend $400 billion on defense alone through 2029. Simultaneously, the nation will not cut social programs or readjust its overall budget as a constitutional amendment now permits lawmakers to bypass the debt brake and borrow in perpetuity without calculating that spending in the federal budget.
Germany believes it is on the right side of history due to its backing of Ukraine, the world’s favorite underdog. A refugee favorite, the nation has allowed 1.2 million Ukrainians into its borders since the war began. The nation hit a record-high for population growth in 2022 due to the number of migrants it has accepted.
Now, Germany provides more funding to Ukraine than any other European nation, and is third globally behind the US and UK. Merz has been an outspoken critic of the United States under Donald Trump due to his reluctance to support Ukraine, and he believes he build an iron-clad military so powerful that the entirety of Europe will no longer need to depend on America for defense.
The Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, currently has around 262,000 troops, but it would like to boldly increase its size with 200,000 additional troops and will spend €100 billion in a special fund to modernize its military. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in May 2024 that he was “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.” While there is no conscription, Germans are required to register for a potential draft before they turn 18. By June of 2024, I was informed by multiple personal sources that this registration had been extended to include women. One reliable source informed me that her female family friend was sent a notice to register at 59 years old.
Germany is the core foundation of the entire European economy. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. Germany’s trajectory toward war is not driven by a public desire for conflict, but by economic, political, and geopolitical pressures—and especially by its entanglement with the European Union, its energy crisis and the collapse of fiscal discipline across Europe. Net Zero initiatives and cutting off cheap Russian gas drastically hurt the German economy by raising energy costs and stifling its auto market. The entire European Union is collapsing, with Germany at the center as the bloc’s primary financier. The EU needs war to maintain the illusion of control, and Germany must be at the frontlines as the bloc’s richest nation.
