Armstrong Economics Blog/China
Re-Posted Jun 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Martin, You said that China will become the financial capital of the world by 2032. Why do you think that what Trump is doing to China with tariffs and the trade war will not be able to stop China becoming the financial capital of the world?
RM

ANSWER: Trump’s tariffs are not intended to prevent China from rising. Rather, they are intended to open up China. The rise of China will come by turning inward to develop their own consumer market. The mercantilist model employed by Germany may have made Germany the biggest economy, but its people have not shared in that rise. This is the difference between an export model and a domestic model. The U.S. is the biggest economy and everyone wants to sell to America because it has the largest consumer market.
Pumped Dry: The Global Crisis of Vanishing Groundwater | USA TODAY
Conversation with global warming skeptic Anthony Watts
The Most Dangerous Type of Eruptions – Flood Volcanism explained
California’s Renewable Energy Problem
Global Warming – Just Follow the Money
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jun 3, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
I just returned from New York City, the armpit of the world since I never saw an apple tree there yet, and I had a very interesting meeting behind the curtain. I thought I would share this subject which they agreed I could go public on without names of course. Besides the fact that there is an understanding that this entire Global Warming scenario is acknowledged nonsense for in real science you debate whereas this agenda seeks to shut down any debate whatsoever, there has been a geopolitical agenda that has been going on which is also why Trump has refused to join the club.
There are those who were using this movement for geopolitical reasons trying to oppress emerging markets which included China. When I was in Beijing back in 1997, 95% of the people were on bicycles. Today, perhaps 5% use bicycles that notice on the streets. There were far more people riding bicycles in Amsterdam than in Beijing based on just my observations on my last trip to both places. In just 5 years, China had poured more concrete in their infrastructure than the United States had poured since the Great Depression. Trying to ban coal was perhaps a covert move to try to keep China from expanding. But it had other problems. Angela Merkel banned nuclear power after the Japan nuclear disaster yet this meant that Germany would still be in a position to produce energy by coal. In Sweden, they used the Global Warming agenda to move to nuclear power.
The other covert agenda only required the simple task of following the money. From the very beginning, the movement to create nuclear power plants funded the agenda of Global Warming to clear the resistance to move to what they were calling a “cleaner” form of energy. The Trump administration has repeatedly vowed to help revitalize the nation’s nuclear power industry, which has struggled to compete with cheap renewables and natural gas. However, he has been unable to get that through Congress.
Meanwhile, the U.S. did agree to build six nuclear reactors in India, which has plans to massively scale up its nuclear-power program to meet the country’s growing energy demands as it reduces emissions. There is no doubt that the Global Warming agenda has also begun as a means to further the nuclear power industry in international markets.
The compelling argument used to convince that the world must turn to nuclear power plants centers on the fact that it is carbon-free energy to stave off global warming. It’s not at all clear that renewables can do the job alone and the dream of electric cars will never materialize without nuclear power on any grand scale. Nuclear is a proven technology, which already provides 11% of all electricity globally. They need the Global Warming propaganda to justify building nuclear power plants which are far more costly to construct – $5 billion to $10 billion a pop. Sometimes, it just helps to follow the money.
The Eighteen Year Real Estate Cycle
Al Gore to Hold Australian Climate Change Event to Discourage Australians From Mining Coal
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jun 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Al Gore is still at it. At the expense to Australian taxpayers of $142,000, Gore will lead a three-day climate change lecture in Queensland. Gore will push his global warming theory, speaking at the Minister’s Climate Change event in Brisbane from June 5 to 7, 2019. The three-day climate change conference was supposed to include Labour leader Bill Shorten. The polls said Shorten would win the Federal Election, but in a surprise, he lost. The entire election was built on climate change and it did not go over very well at the voting booths. He intends to train between 800 and 1000 business and community leaders from across Australia and the Asia-Pacific region during the climate change event to adopt his theory, even though the analysis is linear and has failed with both of his movies.
As a side note, Queensland is experiencing bitter cold – perfect timing!
A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, April 2019 Data
From the attached report on climate change for April 2019 we have the two charts showing how much has the global temperature actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up about 30.0% from 1958 to April of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.
The full 37 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data are used with out change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to compliment that plan will be a world wide disaster.
Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.
Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted May 25, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
This weekend the forecasts are calling for a blistering, dangerous heat wave which is poised to scorch the southeastern U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend. I warned that our computer was showing a sharp increase in volatility in the weather. The winters would spike to new record lows and then the summers would spike to scorching highs. Once again, this is not my personal opinion. If you simply input the data this is what comes up – patterns.
During the 1950s, Edward N. Lorenz (1917-2008) observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather, yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. Lorenz became the father of Chaos Theory. He was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper “Deterministic Non-periodic Flow”in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.
The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a three-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamic system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension (time) in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) simultaneously contains a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.
Therefore, Chaos Theory is a field of study in mathematics with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory investigates the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and subtle changes in the input can create a drastic alternative in the outcome. This has been explained as the “effect,” which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Slight differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general without comprehending dynamic analysis that is cyclical based.
The chaos that appears is complex, yet it masks a hidden order beneath. The complexity of variables creates the illusion that these systems are unpredictable yet they can be extremely deterministic when viewed correctly. The future behavior of such systems is entirely determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved whatsoever. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems allows them to be predictable when approached objectively by a computer eliminating the randomness of human judgment. This type of behavior is best described as Deterministic Chaos.
This fascinating dimension was summarised by Edward Lorenz as follows:
“Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.”
This extraordinary complexity that created the surface impression of chaos hides amazing order below. Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, from such things as weather to economics. Our problem has been mankind’s attempt to reduce everything he sees to simple-minded one-dimensional cause and effect. This type of explanation of such behavior has restrained our ability to move forward in many fields, the least of which is not social science including economics.
Deterministic Chaos may be the key to everything for within both nature and our social world, we are surrounded with complexity yet we try to rationalize everything to a single dimension and are unable to cope with the dynamics of the world in which we live.
Of course, Larry Summer admitted that economists cannot forecast the future because it is complex like the weather systems. We are pointed to perhaps break records that date back to the 1800s.










