Is Germany’s Active Volcano Awakening?


Most people have never heard of a volcano in Germany. Well, the caldera of Laacher See was formed after the Laacher volcano that erupted between 12,900 and 11,200 years ago. Everything collapsed into the empty magma chamber below only two or three days after the eruption, forming what is now a lake. The estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index value was that of 6, which means that this eruption was 250 times larger than the eruption of Mount St. Helens back in 1980. Remains of this eruption can be found all over Europe and is often used for dating sediments. A number of unique minerals, like Hauyn, can be found in the region, and quarries to mine the stone as a building material.

The Laacher is still considered very much an active volcano. There has been recent seismic activities and heavy thermal anomalies under the lake. Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas from magma still bubbles up at the southeastern shore and scientists believe that a new eruption can happen at any time, which today would be a disaster beyond all description. The region known as the Eifel is an idyllic low mountain range in West Germany bordering the Rhine to the East and the Moselle River to the South. Its highest elevation a mere 747m at the Hohe Acht. German geologists have been concerned that there may be a volcanic threat. This possibility is beginning to gather strong support in expert circles, particularly after four recent earthquakes and the realization that magma is filling into the chamber below. The situation could turn from quiet to catastrophic in a matter of months. The volcanoes of the Rhineland are not subjected to close surveillance, for they have not been active is a long time. That seems to be changing.

Magma is once again filling into the chamber beneath the lake. This again is something that would contribute to global cooling if it were to erupt. There have been four recent earthquakes: April 28, 2019; May 2, 2019; May 6, 2019; and May 7, 2019. When the Fukushima Japanese disaster took place back on March 11, 2011, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was a chemical physicist by profession, took the decision to stop eight nuclear plants in Germany and initiated a gradual, full exit of Germany from nuclear energy by 2022

Are we Heading into a Food Shortage?


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it really distasteful that you laid out events well in advance and then everyone copies you without ever giving you credit. There are articles now appearing about the coming food shortage. The degree of plagiarism is unbelievable. It must be dishearting. I certainly begin to distrust these people and organizations for they certainly even know who you are.

LMS

REPLY: That is life. They are trying to sell something so they have to pretend to do the research to make money by getting people to read. The flooding wiped out stockpiles. Now the planting season is already behind on schedule because of the weather. As I have warned, the computer has been forecasting colder winters and shorter-summers. The planting season will decline and thus the danger of a serious food shortage as we head into 2024.

I previously wrote about the soaring bankruptcies among farmers and combine this with the flooding that continues, I believe the computer will be on point. I also wrote about how this year, the Russian wheat crop failed has failed because of the bitter cold with even April coming in as the coldest in more than 140 years. To make matters worse, our computer warns that the weather will not improve. The next 4 years will put even more financial pressure farmers. Even in Australia, the drought is sending the “roos” invading the cities and they like to feed precisely during Rush Hour.  The drought is so bad in Australia, that animals are dying for lack of feed crops.

In the USA, four states are well behind on the planting schedule – Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, and South Dakota. These four states combined to produce nearly 40% of the corn in the U.S. The charts are not yet responding to the fundamentals. This should begin to change next year. Nevertheless, we are building bases at higher levels. I have written plenty of times that any continuation of the weather beyond this season warns of a continued cooling trend. When our model is showing Global Cooling and 2019 has broken so many records, then there is a risk of a pending bull market in the price of food. This is something rather important enough to put on the agenda but governments prefer to listen to the Global Warming crowd to justify taxes.

A Strong US Dollar is the Only Way to Create Change


COMMENT: It is interesting how these people take your interviews and inject headlines like you say the dollar will collapse in April 2019 when you have said exactly the opposite. Just unbelievable how these people use your name to promote their BS.

JD

REPLY: I know. They keep preaching the dollar will collapse when it is exactly the opposite. They are trying to sell their biased view which is always based upon the idea of the quantity theory of money – the same exact philosophy used by the central banks in Quantitative Easing.

The ONLY way the monetary system will break is with a STRONG dollar – not a weak dollar.The monetary system has broke ONLY when the dollar rises as in 1934 and 1985. The US always wants a weak dollar to increase corporate profits and and create a trade surplus. It is really quite amazing how these people keep preaching the same nonsense for decades and have never been right for more than 30 years.

Cycles & Turning Points


QUESTION:

Hello Mr. Armstrong;

Rome was fantastic!. I find it very interesting that you hold the conference on the dates when the markets hit their peak and I come back and Monday we start the decline that you cautioned us that we could see at the conference. Was this planned:)?

Cycles are amazing and now i have to live and invest only based on the cycles.

Thank you again for Rome and bringing Nigel!!

BB

ANSWER: Yes, I do time the conferences around the cycles. That gives us something to talk about. They are simply points where the human emotions shift. This pull back is necessary for we are treading water (i.e. time) until the consolidation is complete in order to produce the next phase.

Just for the record for those who did not attend the Rome WEC, Nigel came because, as he put it, we are the “alternative to Davos.” He was not paid a fee. He had agreed to come and wanted to attend the conference and be at our famous networking cocktail party.

As things turned out, Nigel started his new BREXIT Party after he agreed to come to the WEC. I was concerned he would be too busy to attend with the change in plans. Nevertheless, he flew in for a few hours to make his appearance and then sadly had to leave because of a rally back in the UK the next morning.

The May Turning Point


COMMENT: It is interesting how your model picks the timing for a turn in the market as of May yet it leaves us guessing as to what the fundamental will be. Very interesting to say the least.

Fantastic event in Rome. The cocktail party was the best view of Rome ever!

Cheers

HKD

REPLY: The fundamentals really do not matter. What I have come to understand is TIME is everything. The market will turn on these targets regardless of the fundamental. It is simply a turning point in human emotion for maintaining a given trend. They will exit a trend regardless of the news. How many times have we seen bearish news ignored in a bull run or bullish news ignored during a bearish decline? It is only a matter of the length of a rally or decline.

Robo Trading v Human Trading


QUESTION: So is there any difference between a Robot and a person trading if they just follow the same system on a single market?

ANSWER: Any system that is created which claims to be some robo-trading system is vulnerable to a contagion that impacts a given market from external sources. We are entering a highly correlated global capital flow era which events external to a domestic market can overwhelm a domestic economy and any market.

The only difference between a robo-trading system and a human is that the human can get all emotion and panic. The computer would not do that, but it would be vulnerable to external forces and would not be able to make a judgment call.

The only possible way to overcome this is a complete global model which is monitoring everything and will pick up the external contagions. You can visually see this using the Global Market Watch. You can glance at the trends in all world stock markets for example on one page.

The End of Diversification?


Recent years there has been a shift in how various assets classes are trading. There is emerging a high degree of positive correlation among various financial asset classes that have many concerned since it is not conforming with the perceived historic norms. Many are reading into this as a warning of what is to come. When different asset classes move in the same direction simultaneously, this obviously eliminates the theory of diversification is asset allocation.

Asset allocation over the years has been the way portfolios are arranged because they lack the ability to forecast the major trends. The belief has been that the possible benefits of diversification across classes reduces risk and offers a management tool knowing that you will lose on one side but win on another class.

When there is a high correlation between classes, these asset allocation models fail. The concerns become that this injects a negative development because they fear if one asset class falls, it will take all of the others with it.

What is being overlooked here is the fact that there is a major shift underway which is not understood and this creates the risk of a LIQUIDITY CONTAGION whereby a loss in one asset class causes liquidation in all others to raise cash to cover the losses in one particular asset class. Welcome to the new age of international contagion which is far more serious and cannot be reduced by simply diversification.

We will be looking at establishing a Webinar for Institutional Clients on this subject matte

WEC 2019 Rome The Great Unknown


24,26,367,391.603394

This year’s World Economic Conference was most interesting. We really had to put our thinking caps on because we have entered the Great Unknown where Keynesian Economics has crumbled to dust. We have to reassess the future and how this will unfold as the central banks are beside themselves in many countries and the contagion of Quantitative Easing combined with Negative Interest rates has completely altered the economy and have driven a huge wave of disparity between Public v Private sectors of the economy. This is clearly the times that will test the best skills of what traders are made of.

WEC Rome 2019


The Rome 2019 World Economic Conference was a lot of fun. We have a very diverse crowd from around the world including central bankers, hedge funds, pension funds, and private investors. Nigel Farage was great and he calls our conferences the “alternative to Davos” which inspired applause from attendees.

Concrete Buildings Create C02?


The latest thing now is that constructing office buildings out of concrete and steel is now claimed to account for 5% to 8% of total greenhouse gas. They are now proposing to construct skyscrapers out of wood that are 35 to 40 stories high. They now argue that concrete structures are huge contributors to greenhouse gases. Of course, concrete was invented by the Romans and it is why the Colosseumis still standing as well as the Pantheon. Roman concrete or opus caementicium was invented during the late 3rd century BC when builders added volcanic dust called pozzolana to mortar made of a mixture of lime or gypsum, brick or rock pieces, and water.

Roman concrete was used from the late Roman Republic until the end of the Roman Empire. They used it to build monuments, large buildings, and infrastructures such as roads and bridges. The quality of the concrete was excellent and the buildings and monuments that are still standing today are a testament to the strength of their construction. Today, they argue that cement is one of the primary producers of carbon dioxide and it causes damage to the topsoil. Concrete creates hard surfaces which contribute to surface runoff causing soil erosion, water pollution, and flooding according to the Greens.

However, then there are studies that claim that concrete actually absorbs greenhouses gases and is good for the environment. Cement is the building block of civilization since ancient times and may eventually suck some of that carbon dioxide (CO2) enough to actually cancel nearly a quarter of the gases released making cement, according to a new study.

Of course, Wildfires emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that will continue to warm the planet well into the future. They damage forests that would otherwise remove CO2 from the air. And they inject soot and other aerosols into the atmosphere, with complex effects on warming and cooling. If we construct buildings all out of wood and they catch fire, that creates a major threat of greenhouses gases. Wildfires are estimated to produce 5% up to 10% of annual CO2 emissions.

Guess the only solution is to exterminate all human life. No more studies to contradict one day eggs are bad for you and the next they are no problem. Be sure to visit the Colosseum before an environmentalist blows it up to save the planet.