Posted originally on Jan 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Hey Mr Armstrong The farmers protests here in Germany are about to get serious today! The Berlin police is in absolute chaos right now because there are an estimated number of 2500-3000 tractors entering the city! It is now 6am here and they are arriving in the capital from every direction. It is kinda hard to get through to you but i‘ll do my best to keep you updated.
EZ
REPLY: These politicians are really brain-dead. They take their marching orders from the World Economic Forum and never question the science or anything simply because everyone else is doing it. This is pretty much the same as go WOKE = go BROKE.
Posted originally on Jan 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Name: Dear Martin Re your Blog: Poland’s New Government, Pro-War, Pro-EU I kept a copy of your blog ‘Poland & Niger ‘ Posted Aug 9, 2023. along with a screen-shot of the August projected ECM for Poland highlighting October 26th as the next turning point:
FYI, it was this day that President Duda called for a new Polish parliament to convene after the October 15th elections, one to be led by former (unelected) EU President Donald Tusk. It is not a complete Left turn, more of a veering Left, as he needed to form a coalition in order to form a government.
However, Tusk’s first port of call was the European Commission, where a previously withheld grant of 59 Billion Euro was waiting for him, once Poland had complied with European Commission directives – which Tusk is keen to do. I fear for Poland’s future and fear we are being sold down the river as the next buffer in line after Ukraine has lost the next batch of 500,000 drafted soldiers.
Thank you for all the work that you have put into Socrates; its projections are amazing.
Anon
REPLY: It has been a fascinating discovery that has targeted so many things precisely to the very day. In 1985, I was called in for they were looking to create the G5, which became the Plaza Accord that set out to force the manipulation of the dollar lower to help reduce the trade deficit. I wrote even to President Reagan at the time.
I even took the back page of the Economist in July 1985 for three weeks to announce that the model had forecast that was the end of deflation, the peak in the dollar, and the low in gold. For 40 years, I have been trying to demonstrate that this model confirms that there has been a business cycle that can be projected decades in advance.
From the 1985 low in our model, which projected the peak in the dollar, the next turning point was 1987. That produced the 1987 Crash precisely to the day, and then the next turning point not only pinpointed the peak in the Japanese economy and the Bubble Top in their share market but projected the collapse of Communism as well. The Pi Target produced the day of the ERM Crisis in Europe, and then the wave ended in 1994.25, and once again, that was the precise day of the low in the US share market. That projected the shift of the capital flows, which initially moved from Japan to South East Asia. Still, the capital flows returned to the USA and Europe, anticipating the coming Euro in 1998.
I was stunned when the 1987 Crash happened precisely on that day. Because the low was the very ECM date of October 19th, 1987, I told clients that the low was in place and we would make new highs going into the next turning point, 1989.95. That forecast was also correct, even though many thought it was crazy and impossible. The banks attributed the model’s accuracy to my influence simply because my firm was the largest institutional adviser worldwide. They complained to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who even subpoenaed me, demanding I turn over a list of all my clients worldwide and they would prove I was manipulating the world economy. I defended against them in court and won.
The next wave, #932, covered 1994.25 to 2002.85. The US share market bottomed on the precise day 1994.15; it rallied and peaked precisely on July 20th, 1998, and bottomed on 2002.85, three days after that target. This wave saw the Asian Currency Crisis as a turning point, the collapse of Russia, taking down Long-Term Capital Management, and the Pi Target produced the precise day of the 9/11 attack. So, this was an incredibly accurate wave.
I am working hard on trying to finish the book on this model. I am trying to go through the waves and to show there is a hidden order behind what people think is just this random walk theory, which was devised by people who could not comprehend cycles. As I have said many times in school, they said the economy is random so that the government can manipulate us at will – i.e., Keynesian economics. But that has failed, and I hope to get this out, documenting that the global economy is not random. Everything is connected, and we must start looking at the accuracy of this model that the New Yorker Magazine called The Secret Cycle.
It is about time we take that small step forward for mankind. If we understand how we are all connected, including climate and disease, then maybe we would stop this insane one-dimensional analysis that plagues humanity.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
As of yesterday, Poland has issued a new directive that if you are called for military service, you have just 6 hours to report. The penalty for failure to report is three years in prison. If you cannot make it there in 6 hours, call the commander and explain why. If you fail to show up and avoid military service, you will be imprisoned for five years.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Anthony Blinken cannot sleep at night when there is world peace. He is like a drunk in a bar who punches you because you looked in his direction, and he ASSUMED you were going to punch him first – so he does what he wrongly thought you would do. This guy is so dangerous to National Security that it’s not funny. China has now accused the US of sending “a gravely wrong signal” to those pushing for Taiwan’s independence after Saturday’s election result.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent Taiwanese president-elect William Lai a message of congratulations following the election. Blinken’s prayers and those of his fellow Neocons were answered. His message of congratulations for Lai’s victory, who is a staunch independence supporter, emphasized the partnership between Taipei and Washington, which he said was rooted in democratic values.
Blinken said: “We look forward to working with Dr. Lai and Taiwan’s leaders of all parties to advance our shared interests and values,” adding that the US is “committed to maintaining cross-strait peace and stability” and that he looked forward to collaborating which he hoped would “further our longstanding unofficial relationship” and be “consistent with the US One China policy.”
China viewed the message as a violation of Washington’s commitment to maintain only unofficial ties with Taiwan. The conflict is clearly the result of the US Neocons and even Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which gave the people the impression that the United States was supporting war with China. Our sources say that this “impression” is what supported the victory of Mr. Lai, who has vowed to protect Taiwan from an increasingly aggressive China. Of course, China has become more aggressive when slapped in the face by the Neocons. As long as everyone agreed to the one-China policy, then there was no pressing urgency to invade Taiwan. With this rising tension, China will be compelled to act, or in their culture, it will be a loss of face. For the life of me, I cannot understand how someone like Pelosi and Blinken have no real understanding of the world they wanted to rule.
We had a Directional Change in Taiwan for January, and the election went according to Socrates’ forecast. But note that we also have a Panic Cycle in February, which also shows up in Shanghai.
In Europe, we have the complete incompetence of European leaders who have set up a crisis that I seriously doubt they understood. Even in the DAX, January was a key target, as is March. If there is going to be war in Europe, the first target will be June.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 14, 2024 | Sundance
I hate to be captain obvious again, but maybe people have not noticed this story. Something isn’t right and just doesn’t add up. The events took place last Thursday, the comments by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby are today.
Look at the contrast between what U.S. Central Command put out -vs- the first AP report on the same incident.
Two U.S. Navy SEALs are missing after conducting a nighttime boarding mission Thursday off the coast of Somalia, according to three U.S. officials.
The SEALs were on an interdiction mission, climbing up a vessel when one got knocked off by high waves. Under their protocol, when one SEAL is overtaken the next jumps in after them.
Both SEALs are still missing. A search and rescue mission is underway and the waters in the Gulf of Aden, where they were operating, are warm, two of the U.S. officials said. (read more)
We are supposed to believe that two naval special force operators, Navy SEALS, doing a ship-to-ship transfer, fully kitted, fell into the water, suddenly disappeared and could not be located in the two days between the CentCom announcement (Jan 11) and the AP report (Jan 13).
Eh… nope. Sketchy!
So, here’s National Security Council spokesman John Kirby today. WATCH:
Notice the emphasis on…. “The mission was not related toOperation Prosperity Guardian, the ongoing U.S. and international mission to provide protection to commercial vessels in the Red Sea, or the retaliatory strikes that the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted in Yemen over the past two days.”…
Sorry, but when you spend so much time telling me what it is not, I suspect it is exactly what you say it isn’t.
So, my non-pretending Occam’s razor takeaway:
Two Navy SEAL combat “KIA’s”, killed in action directly as a result of U.S. operations in/around Yemen, have been turned into two innocuous Navy SEAL “MIA’s” because their death would be politically problematic for the administration.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
Interview with GoldSeek Radio:
Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”
– Interest rates rise during boom periods.
“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.
And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.
… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’
If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.
– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes. – Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.
“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”
– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest. – Geopolitical opinion and commentary.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The gig economy has exploded in recent years as people seek additional income to keep up with the rising living costs. The government has been attempting to exploit these workers for additional taxes for years. A new law implemented by the Biden Administration will force some businesses to classify gig workers as employees, raising costs for everyone involved.
It costs companies about 30% more to hire someone as an employee rather than an independent contractor. There are state laws regarding independent contract or gig work, but this is the largest piece of legislation to be passed on the federal level.
The legislation is presented in a way that will protect workers from the big bad companies. In truth, the law will raise taxes on these workers who took on these low-skilled positions for extra income. This will prevent some from, say, working for both Lyft and Uber. Trade group Chamber of Progress believes that reclassification will result in $31 billion in lost revenue.
Companies will simply limit their workforce by necessity. When Governor Gavin Newsom approved raising California’s minimum wage to $20 under Bill 1228, countless people found themselves without a job. Pizza Hut fired over 2,000 delivery drivers right before the change was implemented. California Pizza Hut and PacPizza franchises eliminated delivery driver positions entirely.
So, the kid delivering pizzas a few nights a week during college will miss out on that opportunity because the government wants to tax him as an employee. “Gig” is simply a temporary contract intended to produce supplemental income. These positions were never meant to be full-time career paths. The government should explore why so many people are seeking multiple jobs instead of preventing people from seeking out additional sources of revenue.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
It’s a real crime what’s happening to the Polish people at the hands of what many see as traitors who are taking directives from foreign organizations that will take Poland into a disastrous war with Russia. Poland’s right-wing, now opposition, has called on its supporters to protest against this new pro-European Union government. Unfortunately, our political models on Poland warned that with eight years (8.6) under the Law and Justice party, they would lose, and the shift would be to the globalist agenda in last October’s parliamentary elections. The protest was called for the same day when the Supreme Court was to rule on the validity of the election in the first place.
Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The dollar avoided any sell signals against the zloty at the end of 2023. You have overhead resistance at 4.02 and 4.20. If the low of 2023 now holds, this does not look good for Poland going forward. April will be the critical target in 2024, and we see the danger of higher volatility with a Panic Cycle in October.
Posted originally on Jan 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.
They never look at the history of central banks and how Congress has been manipulating the law to alter the Fed’s purpose. If there was a single interest rate and one policy set in Washington, why do we even have branches of the Fed if they no longer act independently? When the Fed was created, the branches managed internal domestic capital flows. Each branch was independent, and they would lower or raise the interest rate in their jurisdiction depending on the flow of money. Too much cash? They lowered the rate. Not enough cash? They raised it. This was all before Keynesian Economics when the interest rate became the tool to manipulate our demand.
The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 created the Panic of 1907, which caused capital to rush from East to West. This created a shortage of cash in New York and led to bank failures. Hence, the Federal Reserve was created with branches to manipulate the internal capital flows – not the Quantity of Money Theory or the demand of the people.
Roosevelt usurped all the independence of the Fed and created a Washington monopoly to push his socialist agenda into place. We are hearing the same pitch of equality once again from Biden. The government is supposed to be separate from the Federal Reserve, but the president appoints the chair. The formerly independent central bank that was owned by the bankers to prevent the misuse of taxpayer funds is now under control by the banks only in theory; the reins of power are political.
The Federal Reserve failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 and 2019. Most analysts ignore that entirely. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it would have ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest. Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.
Also, consider where the Fed purchases its debt and who purchases US debt. China, for example, is no longer buying US debt due to US-China government relations that the Fed has absolutely no control over. Then, say China sold its debt for cash. The dollar would go offshore, and the domestic money supply would NOT increase. There is a lot more to this game than the simplistic analysis that leads to brainwashing the financial community and investors.
Jerome Powell has no power over fiscal spending or the deficit. Central banks everywhere are trapped. The central banks in Europe are in FAR worse shape right now. When Powell stood before Congress and subtly criticized the Biden Administration by calling their constant spending “unsustainable,” he was attempting to explain that the central bank could not overpower the government here. The central bank can create elastic money, and it will return to doing so. Private capital is fleeing government debt on a global level.
In the end, the globalist agenda is to default on all national debts, and they will no longer need to bail out the bankers. Welcome to the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 11, 2024 | Sundance
Nice to see Tucker Carlson bringing attention to the biggest protests in modern German history. Eva Vlaardingerbroek left the Netherlands to provide support for the farmers in Germany. WATCH:
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