QUESTION:  Hi Martin, You have mentioned on numerous occasions, that the Socrates has inputs from around the world to come to very accurate conclusions. I assume, it has plenty data from within the USA as well. Can it also predict the NFP? ADP?. (few days BEFORE.)

Don

ANSWER: We have put in such information from the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) and ADP Private Sector Jobs data and the interesting result demonstrates that human emotion rules — not numbers. Yes, any data series develops patterns including lottery numbers. Forecasting the direction of such numbers is not really that difficult. The stunning realization, as I have said plenty of times regarding fundamental analysis, is that the reaction of the market is driven by the trend. Therefore, you can obtain a good number but the market will respond in the opposite direction and the news will say it was not good enough. The overall trend being bullish or bearish will color the response to the numbers. Forecasting the number does little good from a reality perspective.

The rally in Bitcoin has come out of China, which has accounted for 98% of bitcoin trading in the past six months. China is also home to about two-thirds of the world’s bitcoin mining power. The Phase Transition spike in Bitcoin is very alarming for it flies right in the face of government’s worldwide and what they are trying to accomplish by eliminating currency.

The Chinese have been buying bitcoin onshore, selling it offshore for another currency and then moving the money to a bank account. This is how the Chinese individuals can taken cash out of the country circumventing all regulation. The Chinese  government has been strengthening requirements for citizens converting their yuan and with Trump coming into office, China fears that lower values for the yuan will become a trade war even if the government is not activity trying to depreciate the yuan for trade. Conversions of yuan are already subject to a quota or currency controls in an effort to curb capital outflows.

Bitcoin has been the escape method for capital fleeing China. With the looming trade war on the horizon, the Chinese government will have absolutely NO CHOICE but to come in and regulate Bitcoin when it’s citizens now account for 98% of all trading. From a regulatory perspective, the days of passive treatment of Bitcoin may come to an end. Bitcoin has soared only because it has been the mechanism to obtain foreign exchange and take capital out of China. This can easily be called illegal operations such as money laundering to justify closing that window.

Of course you have the zealots who preach Bitcoin as the alternative to the dollar they cannot shut down. All they need to do is declare it to be illegal and the PRESUMPTION of being in Bitcoin is a PRESUMPTION of being a criminal. They are already using terms like CASH IS FOR CRIMINALS and if you have a few thousand in cash, they just confiscate it presuming you are criminal under Civil Asset Forfeiture and never have to prove you committed a crime or charge you. Keep in mind we are dancing with the devil. There are no rules – just ruthless self-interest. They will do whatever it takes to survive. They will not relinquish power willing.

Because Australia has convened a commission to terminate the $100 bill, in the wake of the currency being cancelled overnight in India, there is a growing distrust of high denomination euros and Australian bills. What is interesting is A$100 notes are nonnegotiable now in India. The same is happening in Europe with the €500 bills. There is a growing distrust of paper currency after Modi’s cancellation of high denomination notes in India. The word is getting out that this is a G20 trend that is being introduced in 2017. The last currency would be the US dollar and that would require Trump’s approval by 2018. Dollars in the streets overseas are starting to be the ONLY currency of choice.

QUESTION: Dear Marty,

What could be the true intentions of Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi in India cancelling the currency overnight. I have been suspecting some foul in his demonetisation move but cannot correctly understand why he did it? Counterfeit currency, Black money, prevent terrorism all his publicised motives have been shown false. If this move is any kind of scandal and he has tarnished India image in long run or short run. Almost 90% analysts in India are saying it is a good move in the long run ( 2-3 years) and pain in short term. Is this correct?

Is Modi setting up a bounce back 2-3 years down the lane in time for his election? Or is the some other sinster motivated power center behind the official move to demonetise? With your vast experience dealing with governments and contacts behind the curtain, could you kindly throw some light on future of India?

Appreciate your work a lot.

Your blog is a must read.

Kind Regards

Aj

ANSWER: At the G20 meetings, there were discussions behind the curtain about eliminating currency. This cannot begin in the USA because the dollar is the world currency even physically. We are looking at 2017 being the year for the start of electronic money in some countries. They are adapting a new banking system by September 2017 to provide instant transfers. The fraud is already moving away into that area and less on the credit card issue. If they can tap into the electronic instant transfers, they will hit a gold mine.

Modi is pushing India against the wall to move into this new world of electronic money, which they hope to have running by 2018. Everything will change. The big question is whether Trump will go along with this agenda that Obama began and raise taxes even more.

Modi is not doing this in isolation. He is trying to get India up to par with the other countries moving electronic. There are ongoing discussions and India is being watched very closely. If this works in India, they will adopt this forced measure by 2018 in many countries. Europe will probably be nex