Apr 18 2017

President Trump Calls Turkey’s President Erdogan…

Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 17, 2017 by sundance

It’s not on the official public press release page yet, however several media are reporting a call between President Trump and President Erdogan.

(click to enlarge)

Taken in the abstract it’s disconcerting for President Trump to be congratulating Erdogan on the controversial referendum. However, I had a sense this was going to happen because Press Secretary Sean Spicer really FUBAR’d a diplomatic protocol earlier in the day when questioned about yesterday’s election result in Turkey.

The brief, albeit painfully poorly worded response from Sean Spicer comes at 14:50 of the video below [Prompted – just hit play]. Spicer unintentionally pushed President Trump into an subtle and uncomfortable diplomatic position with his response:

[@15:00] …”My understanding is there’s an international commission that is reviewing this and issues a report in ten to twelve days, and so we’ll wait and let them do their job – there were international monitors throughout Turkey.”

… “I think at this point, we’d rather not get ahead of that report and start to make decisions without knowing, there were observers there as there routinely are, and I’d rather wait and see”…

…”Again, I’m not going to, they have every right to have elections, and their people participate in that before we start getting into their governing system, let this commission get through its work.”

By referencing an international commission reviewing the validity of the election, Press Secretary Spicer appeared to be calling the election results into question.

The optic of the U.S. President questioning the validity of a democratic election within a strategically needed NATO country could end up being a major media issue. Micro FUBAR.

Shortly after Spicers’ remarks the phone call to Erdogan appears to have taken place.

Spicey Cat says: “Um, Sorry”

Apr 18 2017

President Trump Smartly Navigating A Stable Foreign Policy…

Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree Hose on April 17, 2017 by sundance

During a February interview which broadcast just before the Superbowl, President Trump recalled riding with former President Barack Obama to the Inauguration on Jan. 20 when he asked Obama to list the three greatest issues America was facing.

[…] “I asked him what you think our biggest problem is and he told me,” Trump said, recalling the limousine ride to the U.S. Capitol with Obama.

“I can’t tell you,” Trump said after O’Reilly interrupted to ask about specifics. “But it’s a problem, its a military problem with a certain place. No, it’s not China. But it is – he did mention, cause I did ask him what would you say our number one, two, three problems are and the number one problem that he felt – I was a little bit surprised, but I fully understand.” (link)

Almost every mainstream political pundit and political observer believes the concerning country within that conversation was North Korea. Indeed, if you were to evaluate the comment in isolation, against the backdrop of world media headlines, N-Korea seemingly becomes a natural conclusion.

However, CTH does not believe North Korea was the country of concern. President Obama viewed and acted upon all foreign affairs through the prism of ideological belief. Every action taken by the Obama administration was in furtherance of an ideological world-view that was personal to the small circle of like-minded fellow travelers.

Outgoing President Obama would not respond to such a question from an abject detachment to the same ideological road-map that drove his foreign policy positions.

No, if it was a country of concern to Obama it would have a personal element to it; North Korea just doesn’t fit.

President Trump went on to say he did not believe Obama would mind if he had shared his answer, but said he did not want that country to know it is viewed as the number one concern to the U.S.

Businessman Trump is President Trump and in both roles Trump has shown through action a keen forward approach. Trump games-out long term objectives and strategies.

Often by the time you see a visible Trump action there has been months of pre-planning.

The President Xi Jinping visit with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago is one example that people are only just now beginning to understand. Trump seeded the objectives of the meeting with President Xi months before their April 6th and 7th meeting (emphasis mine):

[…] “You gotta work on North Korea,” Trump told a Chinese official on February 27, the senior administration official said, apparently pointing to a brief meeting at the White House between Trump and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi, the highest-ranking Chinese official Trump has met with since taking office. (link)

In the events surrounding Syria and Russia President Trump also had mapped out a long-term strategy. Instructions that did not come from Trump’s team, but rather from President Trump personally.

Back in January, before taking office, President Trump told his National Security landing team to approach the intelligence communities and request “outside the box” solutions to Syria (Via Russia/Iran), as one regional issue; and North Korea (using China) as another.

The responsibility for assembling the information fell upon the administration’s IC liaison Deputy NSA Advisor KT McFarland.

The media do not talk about President Trump having the acumen to approach global issues with specific personally generated strategy. The MSM obviously prefer to sell Trump’s approach as reactionary or emotional; however, as we have seen from the results so far, nothing could be further from the truth than the media’s false narrative.

So where does that bring us?

Well, considering everything outlined above; and considering the location of the MOAB as utilized; and considering the location where President Trump directed his National Security Advisor to go…

Well, I would make an argument the Obama-Trump conversation was about a tenuous nuclear country who hid Osama Bin Laden for ten years, Pakistan.

National security advisor H.R. McMaster, left, with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad on April 17. /Reuters

(Via World Tribune) […] McMaster visited Islamabad on April 17, a day after holding talks with Afghan leaders in Kabul.

He delivered a public message to leaders in Pakistan, whom Afghan officials accuse of permitting Taliban jihadists to establish sanctuaries and conduct attacks into Afghanistan with the help of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, Voice of America reported.

“As all of us have hoped for many many years … that Pakistani leaders will understand that it is in their interest to go after these groups less selectively than they have in the past and the best way to pursue their interests in Afghanistan and elsewhere is through diplomacy not through the use of proxies that engage in violence,” McMaster said.

The Pakistani government said in a statement that the U.S. delegation included Lisa Curtis, a researcher with the Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington, who McMaster has hired to oversee South Asia affairs.

In February, Curtis co-authored an article calling for Washington to “levy heavy costs on Pakistan for policies that help perpetuate terrorism in the region.”

In his first trip to the region since being named national security adviser, McMaster met with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his top foreign policy aides before holding talks with the country’s powerful military chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. (link)

Syria (via Russia), North Korea (via China) are, in large measure, diplomatic matters with clear White House objectives and political goals. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been intensely successful so far in handling all of these regional issues with exceptional diplomacy and international support.

President Trump, T-Rex and to a lesser extent Nikki Haley, have aptly navigated through the issues surrounding Syria and China; and with ongoing diplomatic endeavors continuing Vice-President Pence is dispatched as a sincere, stable and trustworthy closer.

However, Pakistan is an entirely different kettle-of-fish. Pakistan policy currently involves higher priority intelligence community and military efforts; ergo, McMasters doing the advanced recon, and a rather noisy knock at the door just prior to arrival.

[…] This is the majors now. Trump has to outwit world-class adversaries and “frenemies” by defining the deals that they will agree to. One minute they will think Trump is their friend – the next minute, a cunning, bitter foe.

And he has to do this with evil cheerleaders like Warhead, Linderace, Dipsy Dowd, Maggie Haterman, and Fake Yapper trashing him or praising him alternately, no matter which way he goes. They can’t keep up, either.

Neither can many around him. I think that half of the problem with advisers crashing into each other is they don’t realize what Trump is doing.

And people will trash you, and they will trash me. Get used to it. I’ve already caught plenty of people mocking me. Well, just wait a week in Trump time. Look stupid and conned by Trump one minute, and you look like a sage three days later.

Trump will not find perfect solutions. He will find OPTIMAL solutions. We cannot ask for more. Trump has stood by and watched Perfect murder Good for 8 years – maybe longer. He’s not gonna do it. He’s going to deliver the best outcome possible, and he’s not waiting for us to feel relaxed about it.

[…] Trump is Jupiter moving through the asteroid belt. He is going to pull people into his orbit. A few will get slung off into space, but most will come along for the ride of their lives. (more)

Apr 18 2017

Real Estate Speculation – Boom – Bust – Just Insanity

Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate

Re-Posted Apr 18, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty, Thank you for this blog post. I understand your position but what if you find yourself as I do with real estate being the MAJORITY of your portfolio? What then? I follow your blog and I learned that mortgages in Canada are only 10 year mortgages and the exchange rate is favorable right now, so am considering 1031X purchasing investment property there, however – then I read your blog post also that their government system is not the same model as ours and defaults are not localized to municipalities but provinces must address them. So that seems a bit risky. Then I was thinking Tahoe/Donner which has a lot of cash buyers doing 1031X …however – then I read your blog post on vacation property being the worst investment in a downturn as people do not spend discretionary income… I’d guess discretionary income disappears with job loss etc. So now that is out. Then I’m thinking go small, student housing, or starter houses in the Midwest where I grew up… – however – I read your blog post that this type of housing is dependent on mortgages which could go away and so the price could crash whereas higher end properties are cash purchases… so my guess is their price might hold up better? (but the blog post does not state that I’m only guessing) At the end of the day I see risk EVERYWHERE … maybe I should just go live in a tent with my gold coins?

Question: Should we just cash out and not own investment real estate? Should we just own our home and no other investment property (e.g. that must generate rents)? It seems like that is what you have been saying by eliminating most of the options … and mentioning that people “park” money in properties they intentionally do not rent out. It will be interesting to see what happens.. because into the market I go very soon to sell here in San Francisco. Prices are going up monthly here… you can see it happening now… like some sort of quickening… most don’t notice the difference yet, but I do as I am active about to transact in this market… here it comes. Time to decide. Its a nail biter.

ANSWER: Real estate depends on how far down the rabbit hole we go. If government does not blink and it just keeps raising taxes trying to support a system that is unsustainable, then we end up in the full crash and burn and you are compelled to walk away from real estate. Hopefully, with education understanding the past, we can for once avoid the same outcome and advance in this learning curve of civilization.

Vacation properties are the worst to survive. I bought such a place to live in at about 50% of its 2007 high. So while high-end properties in cities were rising, vacation spots on the beach declined. I wanted beach front. So understanding the cycle helps tremendously for entry and exit points.

The risk of mortgages declining is real. As governments get in trouble, long-term confidence starts to decline. Banks will not longer be able to package mortgages. As that unfolds, the lack of the availability of mortgages means the only cash rules.

The town I grew up in, Maple Shade, New Jersey, was once the sprawling real estate speculator’s paradise. Thomas Barlow, Sr. and his son, Thomas, Jr. formed the Maple Heights Land Co. together with several other businessmen in 1908. The company purchased from John R. and Margaret W. Mason their farm which was part of the original Roberts plantation surveyed in 1682. In 1910, they formed Barlow Company and began selling 1 acre lots. The buyers were the city folks in Philadelphia for the train came right into Maple Shade and that made the area worth speculating in.

The Barlows then developed small bungalows meant to be vacation homes for people in the big city, which were called Barlow Built Bungalows (BBB). Thomas J.S. Barlow Jr., made a lot of money during the land boom into 1927. He made a lot of money also in the stock market. He built the Barlow Mansion in Maple Shade in 1916 as a wedding present to his wife. The property was then expanded containing the second 3 porch archs which were added in 1926 just before the 1927 real estate bubble burst in Florida and became a contagion in real estate around the country.

Thomas Barlow lost the house in the early 1930s after the Stock Market Crash of 1929. In March 1933, Chester Township (Maple Shade) was declared bankrupt. The Maple Shade National Bank closed was one of the banks that never opened after FDR’s bank holiday. In 1936, Maple Shade had the Highest tax rate in Burlington County because it had gone bankrupt and could not pay its bills lacking any credit facilities. It was during the 1930s that the Barlows opened up their basement for the children in town. It was one of those gatherings that my parents met.

Maple-Shade

After the bank went bust and the Barlow Mansion was lost, one of my father’s friends family had bought up most of main street for cash at 10 cents on the dollar. As state revenues declined during the Great Depression, New Jersey introduced its State Sales Tax fixed at 2% in 1935, except milk and purchases under 13 cents. The Catholic Church in Maple Shade built a shrine in 1937 to thank for a recovery. OLPH Shrine details was the showplace of the locality and stood some 40 feet in width, 36 feet high and 18 feet in depth. It was formally dedicated on Sunday August 15th, 1937.

This story can be repeated countless times for small towns that were being developed during the 1920s land boom how vacation speculation bankrupted many. Even Sarasota, Florida was developed by John Ringling in the mid-1920s. John was once one of the world’s wealthiest men in the United States, yet he died with only $311 in the bank.

Housing-Market I warned that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau puts regulations on people buying real estate with a mortgage that has been highly burdensome to normal people. When friend bought a house with his girlfriend, they had to explain absolutely every check where she had written to him each month paying her half of the rent. They made them account not just once, but for every check going back 5 years.

As late as the 1920’s, someone taking out a mortgage to buy a house in the U.S. would most likely get a short-term balloon mortgage with terms of 50%, and five years to pay off the other 50%. At the end of the five years, it was common to re-finance into another five-year loan. However, when the Great Depression, the value of cash rose and banks didn’t want to refinance these balloon mortgages. Banks began to foreclose. Between 1931 and 1935, a quarter million people lost their homes each year.

1933_Virginia-land-auction Bankruptcy auctions were common and prices fell to 10% for only people with cash could buy. Farm land fell to below what it sold for in the 1850s. Here is a photo of a 1933 Virginia Land Foreclosure Auction.

The whole reason Franklin D. Roosevelt created the 30 year mortgage was to try to get people to buy on credit. Property was being auctioned off in the 1930s and it was for cash only. Prices for farmland fell to pennies on the dollar for only cash buyers could bid. Roosevelt stepped in, explaining why the government shouldn’t just sit by: “Even before I was inaugurated, I came to the conclusion that such a policy was too much to ask the American people to bear. It involved not only a further loss of homes, farms, savings and wages, but also a loss of spiritual values — the loss of that sense of security for the present and the future so necessary to the peace and contentment of the individual and of his family.”

Roosevelt created federal agencies that form the basis of the housing market the United States to this day. They provided mortgage insurance, established a secondary market for mortgage loans, and converted 1 million loans into long-term mortgages. There were truly transformational in nature. It did make housing affordable and it made housing, homeownership, sustainable. However, it effectively leveraged the entire real estate market. It was truly that then more people could afford to buy, but as demand rose, so did property values.

The crisis we face is what happens this time when the banks cannot lend money, interest rates rise, and mortgages for 30 year periods vanish? Like any market, prices will crash. The maximum length of a mortgage was extended to 30 years in the 1940’s, making home ownership even more affordable and leveraged the entire housing market. Today, Roosevelt’s economic fix became the norm. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage accounted for nearly 90% of all new mortgages.

If the government can no longer subsidize the real estate market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will become too expensive, become far too risky for a lender even if the person does not default by the rise in the cost of money, and it will simply disappear. The long-term mortgage is a bet a lot of lenders don’t want to take on their own.

This is the risk to the housing market. If you have the bulk of your assets in real estate, then one way to keep them is to run out and get a 30-year FIXED mortgage now while you can. You have sold the risk to a third party and it is now their problem. You the cash wisely for investment into other movable areas.

Apr 18 2017

The Cycle of Music

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Apr 18, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, isn’t music also cycles with the same structure that repeats?

ANSWER: Absolutely. Cycle has specific meanings in the field of music. Of course, acoustically, it refers to one complete vibration, the base unit of Hertz being one cycle per second. Then you have a cycle interval cycle which is a collection of pitch classes that are created by a producing a sequence of identical intervals. Harmonic cycles, which are repeated sequences of a harmonic progression, are at the root of many musical genres as in the video. The chord progression may be repeated indefinitely, with melodic and lyrical variation forming the musical interest. So yes, this can be reduced to a cycle of cords.

Apr 17 2017

Sunday Talks: HR McMaster Discusses Long-Range Objectives…

Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 16, 2017 by sundance

National Security Advisor HR McMaster has been selected by conspiracy nuts and alt-reality moonbats as a necessary evil foil to retain their pearl-clutching placement at the table of doomsday drum-beating.

Apparently, when candidate Trump, then president-elect Trump, and now President Trump said: “bomb the s**t out of ISIS“, “rebuild our military” and recreate “peace through strength” – a sketchy handful of fools perceived such statements possible without actually ‘bombing‘, ‘rebuilding‘ or ‘reasserting strength‘.

Yes, cognitive dissonance relies upon use of the Mamet Principle; and yes, it happens on the fringe elements of both sides of the circular political continuum.

In the most recent proclamations of the Moonbats any adviser to the President who would be connected with presenting ‘bombing‘, ‘rebuilding‘ or ‘reasserting‘ options of military use to the President, necessarily becomes a war-mongering pod carrier intent on lulling a 70-year-old President to sleep and exit the room converted to John McCain.

The people selling this narrative are both nuts and gnats.

Please pay attention to HR McMaster in this interview laying out a very reasonable perspective on the various regional issues, his praise for the diplomatic approach by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and his accompanying overview to include (@10:38) the answer to the question: “do you think we need more troops in Syria?“. McMaster’s response: “I don’t think so“.

Apr 17 2017

India Outlawing Cash Altogether in 75 Cities

Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Posted Apr 17, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Friday the 14th, that 75 cities will be designated cashless/less-cash townships, with an overwhelming 56 of them being in Gujarat. Modi is determined to bring India into the 21st century. He is being cheered behind the curtain and every government is keenly watching the results. The townships were actually selected on the basis of a recommendation by none other than Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) furthering the G20 agenda to stamp out tax evasion worldwide.

We should be paying close attention to this effort for it is really a global effort to desperately try to support a complete collapse in the world monetary system that is on the horizon.

Apr 17 2017

Trump’s Shift on Positions & the Rise of Kim Jong Un

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Apr 17, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, you said Trump was wrong and China was not a currency manipulator and that Trump was following the same path as James Baker and the Plaza Accord. Everyone knows you are the guy countries run to in the middle of currency wars. Trump just changed his position on China dropping his claim about them manipulating their currency. Did you get a call again?

ANSWER: I cannot discuss who I speak to or else they would not be able to speak to me in present time. What I have done in the past from Europe to China is history – not present. That said, whenever someone enters the White House, they immediately are confronted with issues they are not really aware of before. The Republicans use to have me meet with people who wanted to run for president and there was a real process to see if they had the mental ability to handle the job. That ended with Bush, Jr. back 1999. But things are not always what they seem.

Donald Trump has shifted his view on issues ranging from the Export-Import Bank to interest rates to Chinese currency manipulation in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Trump also announced that NATO is no longer obsolete. This is not unusual for anyone getting to the White House. The worse case would be to not change when it flies right in your face like Merkel and the refugees. It’s foolish to make this an issue with any politician. They do not hold others to the same standard.

Even dropping the mother of all bombs was more of a warning signal to North Korea than anyone else. I have said this many times, Kim Jong Un is HIGHLY dangerous because he (1) lacks any experience and (2) really thinks he can win an invasion of South Korea and defeat the USA. This is why that bomb was dropped in a perfect remote area to minimize any collateral damage. This was intended to be a signal to North Korea that the USA can drop devastating bombs without it being nuclear. Kim Jong Un is escalating a confrontation because he actually thinks he can win. The deck has been re-shuffled.

On the NATO issue, quietly behind the scenes European leaders have come to turn to Trump’s position. If Trump exited NATO, the press would say he was handing Europe to his buddy Hillary as a pay-off for getting him elected. You can see the headlines now.

On China, there is no way they are manipulating their currency lower. Money has been bleeding out of every orifice and citizens were using BitCoin to get funds out.

The press is all over Trump in saying he is abandoning his promises and all his positions are equally malleable. Obama reversed every position he took from closing Guantanamo to the NSA. Obama accused McCain would tax health benefits. He did what McCain said he wanted to do. The press never attacked Obama.

The mainstream media always cheered Obama. This issue once again simply shows how the press is just in the pockets of the Democrats and have no problem trying to derail anything Trump does because that is what the major owners of the mainstream media have committed to.

For me, I am just sad to see the freedom of the press turned into propaganda. When this takes place in the historical timeline, the collapse is never far behind.

Apr 16 2017

Trying to Save Monte Paschi – Oldest Bank in the World

Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Apr 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The EU Commission is looking to bailout Monte Paschi by almost eliminating more than 5,000 jobs. The Monte Paschi plan that was presented last October called for 2600 layoffs. It is the oldest surviving bank in the world and the third largest Italian commercial and retail bank by total assets. This makes it a critical bank in Italy. It has been struggling to avoid a collapse. It was founded in 1472 by the magistrates of the city state of Siena as a “mount of piety” by name.

It was Pope Gregory IX (1127-1241) who became the first Pope to appoint a noble merchant family of Siena as the official Papal depository in 1233 – the Piccolomini headed by Angeliero Solafico. The appointment of the Piccolomini family as the Papal Depository in 1233, led to Siena rising to become the first Financial Capital of Europe emerging at this time.

The Piccolomini family rose in credibility among all the merchants. Their Palazzo Piccolomini still exists which was their Palace. Eventually, their family would later produce two Popes, Pius II (1458-1464) and Pius III (1503). The Piccolomini were conservative merchants who had offices in Genoa, Venice, Aquileria. Triests, and above the Alps they opened both in France and Germany.

Siena was therefore the rebirth of banking after the Dark Age. The Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena was founded by order of the Magistrature of the Republic of Siena as Monte di Pietà back in 1472. Since then the bank has been in operation without interruption to the present day. It formed on the second economic expansionary wave that came 224 years after the birth of the first economic wave in the 13th century.

Apr 16 2017

Degrees Are Not Worth Much – Experience is Everything

Armstrong Economics Blog/Education

Re-Posted Apr 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am an 18 year about to attend college, I want to major in economics and minor in history as I want to run for president in my native Cameroon. Should I get a Bachelor’s here in the states and study aboard in either Germany, UK, Egypt or Russia. What are your thoughts?

ANSWER: Just do the simplest and cheapest. Be very careful that the university is not trying to indoctrinate you with a particular philosophy. Education teaches you facts. They do not teach you how to actually do things. Remember that those who do, just do. Those who can’t – teach.

I was asked if I would teach at one of the top 10 universities in the world. I was shocked to even be asked. We met for lunch. When I asked why me, the response was even more shocking. “Well we know what we teach does not work.” Never forget that.

Most of the great achievement have been accomplished by people who have dropped out of college. It was the same thing when we would have young people joining the firm and were preparing to take their SEC exam. They would come to me to ask a question and I responded just memorize the answer they want and then forget it. After they pass the exam, I would tell them their real education would begin.

When I would interview people just graduating with an economics degree, I would ask them what they though about various economic theories. When I came to Marx, most looked at me puzzled and said they briefly touched on him in sociology class, not economics. I could tell what school they went to be their response.

EconomicCartoon

I have tried to provide a list of the various people in economics and their theories – the history of economic thought. The key to really understanding a subject is to examine the thinking process that arrived at that conclusion. We need not agree with Marx, but if we do not comprehend how he arrived at his conclusion, then we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes.

Formal education can be very dangerous for it is often man’s way or perpetuating his mistakes eternally. We must embrace our mistakes, for they are the real teachers in life. We much broaden our minds and go places that formal education never goes. Then you may have your piece of paper, but you will have a real education they will never provide.

The vast majority of people end up doing something they do not have a degree in. Most student in their freshman year of college are clueless. They are there because their parents forced them to go. They should take a 2 year break and get a job in between and observe how that business even functions. How it is organized.

Apr 15 2017

President Trump Realigning Geo-Political Alliances, and Few Paying Attention…

Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 15, 2017 by sundance

Maybe it’s because the complexity is difficult to distill; maybe it’s because some just can’t give President Trump any credit; or maybe it’s because the scope is too challenging to comprehend against the constant belittlement meme du jour; regardless of reason, President Trump is fundamentally realigning international geo-political alliances and almost no-one is connecting the dots.

President Trump obviously held a long-ball strategy with the Chinese; he’s described the approach in his books and lived the approach in his business life:

At the outset, position yourself at the furthest oppositional point when it costs you nothing; then leverage inward toward your opponent as they expend their resources to meet your stance.

Almost no-one is noting the scope of what President Trump has accomplished simply by positioning himself at the furthest extreme from the best interests of China, and then working his leverage back toward dual-interests as the Chinese expend capital to meet the point of mutual benefit.

President Trump has expended nothing other than his sheer will, and yet he has leveraged gains that are jaw-droppingly consequential.

♦ What’s the goal of identifying China as a currency manipulator? To stop China from manipulating currency, right? Well, arm-chair opposition says President Trump has reversed his position simply by ‘not doing something’. However, that opposition doesn’t seem to acknowledge the end-goal of the labeling has been achieved without expending an effort. The doing is unnecessary when merely the threat of the doing changes the behavior of the doer.

In two days, April 6th and April 7th, President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. What actions has President Trump taken, other than ‘not’ doing something, and what actions has President Xi Jinping taken?

At the outset, position yourself at the furthest oppositional point when it costs you nothing, and leverage inward toward your opponent as they expend their resources to meet your stance.

Think about this when considering the consequences:

♦ China agrees to the framework of a 100 day outline to assemble the trade way-points for renegotiated bi-lateral trade deals.