Do People Hear Only What They Want to Hear?


Manipulation-Markets

QUESTION: You always say the markets cannot be manipulated. Deutsche Bank is turning over the smoking gun. Any comment?

ANSWER: It seems you are using the term “manipulation” extremely loosely. You are mixing this term up with collusion and coordination, yes with the intent to “move” a market within the immediate trend which is not “manipulation” as it is being thrown around. Front-running and pressing or spoofing a market does not translate into systemically suppressing a market to prevent it from ever rallying for decades. Nobody does that and it would produce no instant profit. All the emails and text messages in the Deutsche Bank released illustrate collusion and coordinated events to press the market within the immediate trend. They do not show systemic perpetual manipulation. Here is what I wrote in Behind The Curtain back in 2009. The information now surfacing from the Deutsche Bank files confirms what I wrote about years ago:


Look Behind the Curtain, April 9, 2009.

During the late 1970s, the silver market was claimed to be “cornered” by the Hunt Brothers. That was far from true, for what they failed to understand, was that the attitude of the major brokerage houses was not that you were a pure trader-customer, but someone to pick – off for profit. During the 1980s, I had to take on some hedging projects that were awesome. One was in platinum. When you are the largest trader in a narrow market, they watch everything you do. If I was to sell, they assume the whole lot is being sold and jump in front. You suddenly find yourself trapped. I was a witness to the Hunt collapse. They couldn’t get out of the market at any price. The dealers were selling in front of them taking short positions looking to buy back when the Hunts were in a state of panic dumping at any price.

I learned early on that to professionally hedge, one had to navigate the brokers. The only way to deal with them, was to play one-off-against-another, use related markets to confuse and hide your strategy, or else fall prey to the Investment Bankers. In other words, if you had a large position of gold that you wanted to sell, you go to a broker asking for a market in silver. He gives you a quote, and you then buy taking what will become an intentional loss. You go back to the same broker and now ask for a quote on the real market you are trying to sell – gold. He will anticipate you intend to buy because of the silver trade, shifting the quotes to pick up extra profit assuming you are a buyer. When you sell the gold, you just got a higher bid, you are out of the position, and he is scrambling to cover with other brokers. If you hit all the brokers the same way at precisely the same time, they are all now short, and are trapped trying to get out selling back gold that they just bought from you trying to play you for the fool.

These games are at times necessary in the cash markets because the brokers themselves are not satisfied with just making a real market. They need to create an edge. So when you are the 800 pound gorilla, you need defensive measures. It helps to understand the method to the madness of the game.

The market manipulations that really began back in the 70’s with force,became intermixed among the Investment Bankers with technology. we began to see grouping of houses by the later 1980s and early 1990s. Perhaps at first, they were looking for another Hunt. They needed to sell some billionaire on the virtues of cornering and manipulating a market.

The first real coordinated scheme began back in 1993 that I could verify. The target market was silver, and the central player, broker-dealer, was Phillips Brothers who were a big commodity outfit in Connecticut, picked up by Salomon Brothers who was later absorbed as well. This ms known as PhiBro of the same fame relating to Marc Rich.

PhiBro had a huge client who they were acting for to buy up the silver market in 1993. This was an aggressive professional strategy. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission could easily see where the buying was centered in real force. They went to PhiBro demanding to know who their client was. PhiBro refused to give up the name. The CFTC ordered PhiBro to just get out of the market. They did. They just dumped everything at the market wiping out small investors in the blink of an eye.

The CFTC just walked away. Had this been a small broker or money manager, he would have been criminally prosecuted. But the CFTC is notorious for never even once bringing a complaint against a major house. The sources I relied upon, gave me the name of the client – Warren Buffett. Based upon this information and belief, when his name came up again in 1997, it is not a shock.

We kept track of what the “club” was doing and warned our clients whenever their antics were conflicting. One of the big ones that blew the lid off, was again silver. In 1997, I warned that silver was going to rise from $4 to $7 between September and January 1998. I was even invited to join them, and told to stop fighting, and put out false forecasts. I declined. Their strategy became insane.

At first, a friend of mine who had been Prime Minister Thatcher’s economic advisor became a board member of AIG in London. He called one day and asked if he could drop in to Princeton the next morning when he arrived from London. I naturally said OK. To my surprise, he arrived with the head trader from AIG London who then proceeded to try to convince me to stop talking about the manipulations. I told him I would not ever reveal any names, and the government didn’t care anyway.

Things got insane thereafter. An analyst on the payroll of PhiBro had a main contact at the Wall Street Journal. They decided to slander me and get the press to target me claiming I was trying to manipulate the market. It was an interesting strategy, but one I cared nothing about since I was primarily institutional and corporate advisor, and they were not really interested in silver.

The journalist from the Wall Street Journal called me. He accused me of this nonsense and we argued. It got quite heated. He said if silver was being manipulated, then give him the name. I told him he wouldn’t believe me anyway. He demanded the name and so I said fine, go ahead, let me see you print it, knowing he never would. The name I gave him was Warren Buffett. He laughed. Told me everyone knew Buffett did not trade commodities I told him that was how much he knew.

The Wall Street Journal published the article. The London newspapers were fed stories by the “Club” that I was now the largest silver trader in the world. This became all a joke to me. Even the CFTC could look at positions and knew I was not a big player in silver.

The mistake made by the “Club” by turning out the press against me, was they actually created such a worldwide story that the CFTC was forced to call me. They knew I was not the source. They asked me, where was the manipulation taking place? I told them it was in London, out of their jurisdiction. They told me that they could pick up the phone and find out. I told them that they had to make that clear decision. I hung up. Never did I expect that they would really do anything.

A few hours later, my phone rang. It was a good source in London who also was helping to monitor the “Club” actions. He told me that the Bank of England had called an immediate meeting of all silver brokers in London in the morning. I was shocked. The CFTC had made the call. But then again, I had given them no names so perhaps in their mind, this was fair game.

Within the hour, Warren Buffett made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver, in London . He denied he was manipulating the market. Claimed the silver was a long – term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffett was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all the next day, the wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for the long-term investment.

There have been major manipulations of markets such as rhodium and then there was the manipulation of Platinum. Cornering a supply is far too risky. What the “club” did was to join forces with Russian politicians. The deal struck was to recall the Russian supply of platinum to suddenly take an inventory. Platinum soared in price. Of course the long positions were already laid in before the announcement. Russia had never before recalled its entire supply to take an inventory. Nevertheless, it worked. They were able to force platinum up for the auto – industry were buyers. At the top, the “club” sold their long positions, reversed into short positions, and then instructed the Russians to end the inventory. Platinum crashed. Even Ford Motor Company sued over that one.


Here is the New York Times from February 5th, 1998. Note that the CFTC had no comment because it was Buffett. The Wall Street Journal had called me and I was warning our clients in September 1997 “they” were going to take silver up to $7 by January. On September 30th 1997 the stories played headlines –

“Silver Prices Hit Six-Month High On Steadily Declining Reserves, By  PALLAVI GOGOI AP-Dow Jones News Service Updated Sept. 30, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET NEW YORK — Silver futures surged to a six-month high at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a move analysts said was triggered by steadily declining warehouse stocks. The rally was boosted by preplaced purchase orders around the $5-per-ounce level…”

This was the news created for the manipulation the feed to the press that was constantly played out in the newspapers. The Wall Street Journal again reported on November 17, 1997:

“Silver Futures Prices Leap On Hints of Tight Supplies”,

and again on December 4, 1997 the Wall Street Journal from London reported:

“Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to The Wall Street Journal Updated Dec. 5, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET LONDON — Gold may be in the doghouse, but silver is soaring like a bird”.

The reporting of shortages continued to fuel the rally. The Wall Street Journal reported again December 24, 1997 with information feed to them by the manipulators:

“Silver Futures Advance As Inventories Plunge”

I have always wrote about how the “club” coordinated to move a market for a quick gain. That was it. Then they move to the next market. They did not stay and perpetually maintain the same trade.

huntbrothers

So do not confuse coordinated trading with systemic manipulation claiming that is why the metals have not rallied. That is just not true. Look at the dollar and the entire surrounding markets. Take the blinders off for once. Just as the “club” put out news in the press to get people to buy the silver, they did the same going into 1980 telling the world it was the Hunts. They sucked in everyone at the top, changed the rules at the exchange who is in their pocket (corruption) and made it less to short than go long. They then told the CFTC to charge the Hunts for the whole scam.

Why did the CFTC not even question Buffett? The CFTC does what the bankers tell them to do all the time. They would never charge Buffett of Phibro for buying the silver in London to make it appear that the supply collapsed when all they did was move it from NYC to London. It was not used. Buffett then turned around and sold it all – so much for the long-term investment. Members of the “club” can do anything because they hire the lawyers from the CFTC and SEC known as the Revolving Door which is the real problem sustaining corruption. When you have mainstream media, courts, and the regulators all on a short leash held by the club, the club has been able to do as they please for decades.

You want to pretend I am wrong so you can feel better about being wrong? Have a nice day. And by the way, good luck with the losses. Technical Analysis will tell you when markets are being played. If you want to make a difference, stop the “manipulation” nonsense and deal with the real issue – the club owns the them all, media, courts, and regulators.

Dow For Wed December 14, 2016


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We are pushing up against the next resistance level. We need to close above 19970 to imply we will break through the 20k level. It does not yet appear to be ready to burst through the 21K level. Nevertheless, the next main target is still in the 23k level. That is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.

This Is What Happened The Last Time Yellen Hiked Into “Quad Witching”


Tyler Durden's picture

As The Fed and quad-witch looms (and Dow 20k is within reach), the relationship between US equity and volatility complex appears to breaking down again…

Just as we saw last week, VIX and stocks are rising together…

 

But, here’s a reminder what happened the last time The Fed hiked into Quad Witch…

 

The Dow was down 700 points from post-Yellen exuberance… Nasdaq broke 5,000; Dow nears 17,000; and S&P 2,000 was defended with valor…

 

Leaving everything Red for the week…

 

It’s different this time though.

Peak Euphoria: Dow Shy Of Record Overbought


Tyler Durden's picture

With the Dow Jones less than 100 points away from 20,000, it is moot to say that the only sentiment driving the market here, with the S&P trading at 25x actual GAAP P/E, is adrenaline and pure euphoria.

Just last night, we showed that the Dow was the most overbought in the past 20 years, while options traders have never been more bullish. Today, following the Dow’s surge right out of the gates, it is safe to say that the “Industrial” average, where Goldman Sachs has been the star performer, and which as of last night, was more overbought on just 4 previous occasions in the past century, is at record euphoria.

Putting similar RSI levels in comparison: August 1927, June 1944, July 1955, November 1996, and now December 2016… after each of the previous spikes, stocks fell back 4 to 5% within days.

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency


modi

QUESTION: Marty; You have been emphasizing not to buy gold bullion but US gold coins such as the $20. You have said that the last time they confiscated gold coin collections were exempt. With the drastic action in India, and the war on currency in Turkey, is this why you have said stocks and collectibles are a safer bet?

ANSWER:There are no safe bets. However, we are in the collapse of socialism. The left is always the most dangerous because they see themselves as victims. Narendra Damodardas Modi is proving to be a very dangerous radical who is extremely misguided. His demonetization of the currency was carried out without even asking the Reserve Bank. His BJP party advocates social conservatism and a foreign policy centered on nationalist principles. Generally, Modi has focused on a largely neoliberal economic policy prioritizing globalization and economic growth over social welfare. In sum, he is subjugating the people to his goal of globalization.

China and Russia saw their revolutions from the left led by the youth. India is trying to eradicate the underground economy. They first eliminated cash, which is preventing small businesses from paying employees. Unemployment will now soar. They are now attacking gold and this is all about creating a forced above ground economy so it can be regulated and taxed. People are reduced to using rice for money.

turkish-lira-1960-2015

Turkey is doing the same thing. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has begun his war on foreign currency because the Turkish lira is being devastated in international markets. His dream of recreating the Ottoman Empire will fail. He has lost the confidence of the people as well as the world. He is saying anyone who has $1 bills is a traitor. He is telling the population to convert their foreign currency to Turkish lira out of patriotism.

Is CIA Trying to Cover Its Own Hack or Accommodating Obama?


cia-seal

Obama’s parting shot across the bow is his order of a full review into hacking aimed at influencing US elections going back to 2008. Instead of targeting the CIA or the NSA, WikiLeaks has gone after an organization Democrats actually care about — the Democratic National Committee and exposed its internal corruption. If Obama could, he would declare Wikileaks a Terrorist Organization and anyone who published its stuff should be thrown in prison.

Nevertheless, this latest act by Obama is clearly a politicized action that seems more about widening the divide in the country and to continue to smear doubt over the election. The CIA claim that Russia hacked the DNC and gave the data to Wikileaks to help Trump against Hillary, is really questionable since there is no evidence of a hack. The FBI said that Hillary’s emails had been hacked by five foreign governments. They could not be 100% sure who, or what they got since the really classified stuff was omitted, but the CIA is now claiming it was Russia who hacked the DNC and got this collection of 19,252 emails and 8,034 attachments from the DNC. There is absolutely NO WAY that a professional hacker who leaves no concrete trace with Hillary’s emails, would be sloppy enough to leave such a trace at the DNC.

Furthermore, Julian Assange  came out and stated publicly it was a leak and not a hack but declined to say who was the leak. Backing up Assange, the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, confirmed he has met the person who gave the DNC emails to Wikileaks and said publicly it was not the Russians. That was reported by BizPac Review, which is a contributor to Google News. Additionally, there is just no hard evidence whatsoever. This is clearly a false flag report by the Obama Administration supported by the highly partisan Washington Post, which has lost all credibility during this election. Yes, Trump was correct, 77% of all press reporting during the election was negative against him according to a Harvard study.

There is absolutely no evidence that the votes were hacked in any state by Russia, China, Bangladesh or Canada just so Justin Pierre James Trudeau who have someone to talk to if Hillary won. So exactly how is this sinister hack supposed to have influenced the election? Oh, that’s right, it revealed that the Democrats conspired with the press to make sure Trump would be the pick because they thought they could demonize him and beat him easily. Then they conspired to stop Bernie take California and cheated to give that to Hillary to the point the head of the DNC had to resign. But hey! What Obama is really saying is if they DNC hack had not taken place, then the Democrats would have gotten away with it fair and square?

There is something else behind the curtain. That is, there were plenty within the FBI and the Intelligence Community who wanted Hillary indicted. There was talk that the hack of the DNC was home grown from within the CIA and handed to Wikileaks. So is the CIA now trying to cover its own trail? Or is Obama trying to set the stage for the next election saying Trump was really not the president? There cannot be any hard-core proof Russia was behind that hack. This seems to be a false-flag to clean the deck before leaving office and to try to shift the proof that the DNC was rotten to the core.

Lobbying Moves into High Gear Against Fed Rate Hike


reserve-bank-india-rbi

The lobbying is off and running is super-high gear to stop the Fed from raising rates once again. Governments all over the world have a very myopic view and focused only on the next quarter, or the next election. The Reserve Bank of India also fears that the US Fed’s impending interest rise would affect the external value of the rupee. Again the IMF behind the curtain is on its needs. Any depreciation of the rupee as a result of capital outflows would only worsen the balance of payments for India and expose the insane policies of Modi who did not even consult the RBI before demonetizing the currency.

Anyone with half a brain in economics knows that the worst thin you can do to create a depression is cause the velocity of money to decline. If people hoard and do not spend, the economy implodes. Modi is trying to end the cash economy, but he has ensured unemployment will now soar because small businesses cannot pay their people.Expect at least another 400,000 people to lose their jobs and people are forced to use rice as money.

Additionally, a rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation due to rise in prices of imported commodities. Inflationary expectations are real keeping food prices high posing a threat to domestic price stability and external value of rupee. The RBI declined to lower rates looking at the prospects that the USA may raise rates so high rates are necessary to try to stem the outflow of capital.

Traitors John McCain and Lindsey Graham JOIN DEMOCRATS to DELEGITIMIZE President-Elect Trump


McCain is way over the hill and has no clue about anything any more

Senator Joe Manchin and Carly Fiorina Meet With President Elect Donald Trump…


There’s a few interesting decisions that may come out this week.  The Secretary of Energy seems a possibility, and names of Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Governor Rick Perry (TX) both surfac…

Source: Senator Joe Manchin and Carly Fiorina Meet With President Elect Donald Trump..

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FBI Disputes CIA’s “Fuzzy And Ambiguous” Claims That Russia Sought To Influence Presidential Election


Tyler Durden's picture

Since election day, Democrats have engaged in a panicked attempt to leverage their last couple of weeks in control of the executive branch to delegitimize the Trump presidency.  Obama has even gone so far as to order a “full report” on Russian tampering in the 2016 election cycle to be completed before he leaves office (see “A “Soft Coup” Attempt: Furious Trump Slams “Secret” CIA Report Russia Helped Him Win“).  Of course, we should simply ignore the fact that a true investigation of such allegations would take much longer than the one month that Obama has left in office because any delay could run the risk of a bipartisan/independent review and that’s just not how the Obama administration plays the game.

But at least one investigative agency, the FBI, isn’t buying the “fuzzy and ambiguous” assertions from the CIA that Russia “quite” clearly meddled in the U.S. elections on behalf of the Trump campaign.  Meanwhile, the FBI’s unwillingness to play along is infuriating Democrats.  Per the BizPac Review:

  The FBI did not corroborate the CIA’s claim that Russia had a hand in the election of President-elect Donald Trump in a meeting with lawmakers last week.

A senior FBI counterintelligence official met with Republican and Democrat members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in order to give the bureau’s view of a recent CIA report. The official did not concur with the CIA, frustrating Democrats.

The CIA believes Russia “quite” clearly intended to send Trump to the White House. The claim is a bold one and concerned Democrats and some Republicans who are worried about Trump’s desire to mend relations with an increasingly aggressive Russia. The CIA report was “direct, bold and unqualified,” one of the officials at the meeting told The Washington Post Saturday.

The FBI official was much less convinced of the claims, providing “fuzzy” and “ambiguous” remarks.

The Washington Post compiled the following comments from the weekend talk show circuit highlighting where various DC players stand on the Russia allegations.

 Meanwhile, the Washington Post also points out that the whole disagreement likely comes down to “cultural” differences between the FBI and CIA.  Apparently the FBI “wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something” while the CIA is “more comfortable drawing inferences.” 
 The competing messages, according to officials in attendance, also reflect cultural differences between the FBI and the CIA. The bureau, true to its law enforcement roots, wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something beyond all reasonable doubt. The CIA is more comfortable drawing inferences from behavior.

“The FBI briefers think in terms of criminal standards — can we prove this in court,” one of the officials said. “The CIA briefers weigh the preponderance of intelligence and then make judgment calls to help policymakers make informed decisions. High confidence for them means ‘we’re pretty damn sure.’ It doesn’t mean they can prove it in court.”

The FBI is not sold on the idea that Russia had a particular aim in its meddling. “There’s no question that [the Russians’] efforts went one way, but it’s not clear that they have a specific goal or mix of related goals,” said one U.S. official.

Well, that certainly seems reasonable…who needs “facts and tangible evidence” when the CIA can just “draw inferences“…they’re supposedly really smart so we should probably just believe them.