Tag Archives: Supply Side Inflation

Dec 1 2023

Bank Acquisitions Coming 


Posted Originally on Dec 1, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Bank Broken

A recent report by KBW Regional Banking Index (KBW) suggests that Comerica, Zions, and First Horizon are at risk of being acquired by greater competitors. Larger banks with strong returns, such as Huntington, Fifth Third, M&T, and Regions Financial, are positioned to grow by acquiring smaller lenders. Additionally, KBW analysts noted that Western Alliance and Webster Financial could also consider selling themselves. The report highlights that regional banks with assets between $80 billion and $120 billion are facing increasing pressure on returns and profitability, making them potential targets for acquisition by larger rivals.

This analysis underscores the challenges faced by banks in this asset range, as they have the lowest structural returns among banks with at least $10 billion in assets, necessitating growth to help pay for upcoming regulations. The report also mentions that banks with higher returns, such as East West Bank, Popular Bank, and New York Community Bank, could end up as acquirers rather than targets. This analysis reflects the evolving landscape of the banking industry and the potential for consolidation among regional banks.

Three banks have already collapsed in the US this year. New proposed regulations would require banks with over $100 billion in assets to hold onto long-term debt equal to 3.5% of total assets or 6% of risk-weighted assets. Now banks just below the $100 billion mark will potentially face the burden of adhering to these new regulations. Regional bank shares have fallen by over 20% this year. Smaller banks are already struggling to remain profitable, while midsized banks will be forced to join a larger banking organization to stay afloat.

Nov 26 2023

Col. MacGregor’s Dire Warning: “I Think The Banks Are Going Down For 2-3 Weeks”


POsted originally on Rumble on: Man in America Nov 6, 9:00 pm EST

Nov 24 2023

IRS Pauses $600+ Transaction Audits


Posted riginally on Nov 24, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

IRS building

Within the American Rescue Plan was a piece of legislation requiring Americans to report any transactions they made over $600. The most recent budget negotiation eliminated much of the additional funding for the IRS. The Biden Administration wanted to hire 87,000 new IRS agents and claimed they were solely targeting the rich. Not so coincidentally, directly after the recent IRS budget cut, the government announced that 2023 will be a “transition year,” and Americans will not need to report these small payments as of yet.

The plan will go into effect next year, but the minimum threshold will be raised from $600 to $5,000. All Americans will be required to file a 1099-K form to report additional earnings exceeding $5,000. Yet, businesses are already required to report on all their transactions. “We spent many months gathering feedback from third-party groups and others, and it became increasingly clear we need additional time to effectively implement the new reporting requirements,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said.

600 IRS Audit

Targeting a $600 payment or even a $5,000 payment is not going to target the billionaire class. Do you think people like Elon Musk are selling a bike on eBay for $600 and refraining from paying taxes? They are directly looking to target middle America with these restrictions. Taxes simply never go down as the government feels entitled to a portion of every penny you earn.

Now this news also comes directly after Biden’s approval rating plummeted into negative territory. They do not want to anger the people ahead of the election. Should we simply pay our taxes to Israel and Ukraine this tax season? People would realize how trivial those $600+ payments were after the government audits the local babysitter for not reporting her income or asks grandma to itemize her yard sale earnings. The government overreach would be blatant enough to wake up the most loyal Biden supporter.

They know that digital currency will soon roll out, providing them with the ability to track all of our transactions easily. This is one of the reasons that governments globally are moving towards a cashless society. It is still curious as to why the IRS has an armed branch that is trained in  “firearms, defensive tactics, and building entry.” They are merely buying time before declaring 

Nov 16 2023

Gold – Bitcoin & CBDCs Re-Posted Nov 15, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


WEC_2023_Gold

QUESTION: Will you be covering the CBDC and gold? How about Bitcoin?

EH

ANSWER: Of Course. Our views have exceeded 600,000, so we have expanded the virtual availability to attend the conference. Over 37 countries are tuning in this year. This is a broadly based global conference.

Nov 15 2023

Democrat Politicians are ALL Wannabe Tyrants


Posted originally on Rumble by Sean Parnell: Battleground on: Nov 14, 5:00 pm EST

Nov 15 2023

Bret and Heather 199th DarkHorse Podcast Livestream: Surgical Totalitarianism


Posted originally on Rumble By Darkhorse Podcast on: Nov 14, 5:01 pm EST

Nov 15 2023

State Wealth Migration Re-Posted Nov 15, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Migration to USA

In 2019, New York hosted 72 billionaires. That figure has declined to 62 in 2023, with smart money fleeing the state due to high taxes and crime. The state of New York depends on the top 1% of earners to pay 42% of its tax burden. New York is already operating in a deficit and has the added burden of hosting tens of thousands of migrants with tax funds.

The top 1% of Americans have an average net worth of $10,815,000. While billionaires earn on investments and not income, states like New York expect top earners to pay 14.8% in income tax. “If you had someone who was earning $100 million [a year] in New York suddenly move to Florida, that’s something like a $11 million-a-year hit per year recurring to the state,” said Ken Girardin, the research director for the Albany-based think tank, Empire Center for Public Policy. The 62 billionaires that remain in New York have a collective net worth of $562.3. Only the top 5% of Americans have a net worth of over a million dollars.

Inflation is hurting those at every class level and people do not want to downgrade their lifestyles. Policymakers want to scream “Eat the rich!” to appease voters who do not understand that the money held by those at the top is needed for a healthy economy. In 2020 alone, when the pandemic struck, New York lost $19.5 billion in taxes from people fleeing the state. California lost $17.8 in tax revenue that year and counting.

We are seeing a wealth migration in the US. This is why I say that markets like real estate cannot be looked at on the national level, as prices in red states continue to rise as blue states have become uninhabitable. This is only taking into consideration individuals as moneymakers are also taking their businesses to states where they do not need to support the welfare system. Around 160 firms have fled Wall Street since 2019, displacing $1 trillion.

Real Estate

Hence, people are saying Miami is the new Wall Street. Lawmakers do not comprehend the impact that this will have on state budgets.

Sixth Wave ECM Greek Roman 309.6

This is precisely what happened prior to the collapse of the Roman Empire. The top 1% half 16% of the empire’s wealth. Wealthy Romans were the first to leave cities when public confidence collapsed. We can see the migration from archaeological finds that saw villas built far from city centers. And even in those days, people felt that the wealthy were selfish for acting in accordance to the invisible hand. As noted in “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” by James William Ermatinger: “Their disinclination to leave may have been caused by forced exactions, confiscations, business concerns, tax pressured, or general economic fears, which made protecting one’s own interests seem more prudent than looking out for the interests of others.”

Rome’s Sovereign Debt Crisis is what ultimately led to its collapse. Yet one of the first signs of major trouble was the mass exodus of wealth from the cities.

Nov 9 2023

Judge Arthur Engoron May Have Doomed New York City Re-Posted Nov 9, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Engoron Arthur

QUESTION: You have not commented on Trump’s NY case. What do you think of this case?

EK

ANSWER: It is a typical New York rigged trial. NOBODY ever gets a fair trial in New York. It is a cesspool of legal corruption. Judge Arthur Engoron is a national disgrace. When Trump’s lawyer Habba stood up to defend Trump, stating that the Engoron needed to “hear what he has to say.” The judge quickly scolded Habba, telling her, “I’m not here to hear what he has to say. He’s here to answer questions.”

He has already determined that everyone is guilty. This is about how much he can take from Trump and his family. They claim Trump should have paid $168 million more in interest. This is so absurd; it is just unimaginable.

In Securities Law, this applies between a professional and a member of the public. If I managed money for a major public corporation and said I wanted 50% of the profits, and they agreed, that is not fraud because, between two professionals, it is presumed they knew what they were doing.

This is not bank fraud, where the loans are paid off. The bank has its own assessors. They would have looked at the collateral listed and lent money on that and must have done their own diligence. For this case to even proceed is outrageous, for you could then scrutinize every loan ever made in New York City and claim that someone overvalued their house when they borrowed.

The ENTIRE world knows this is to interfere in the 2024 election. Both Argentina and Brazil said that a great idea and are doing the same to their opponents. As I have said, the computer is projecting massive civil unrest post-2024. It does not matter who wins the election; NEITHER side will accept the conclusion. I would NOT want to be in New York City post-election. This judge may have sealed the fate of New York City once and for all.

Any rational businessman should now avoid New York City for doing any business whatsoever.

Nov 7 2023

The Coming Great Crash? Re-Posted Nov 6, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Galbraith Great Crash

I fully understand that there are now so many calling for a Great Crash of all time as they have during each correction, big and small, for over 30 years, and they just never get it right, even once. Some tout the rise in interest rates. Others look at this chart and nothing else. If there is a Great Crash, then the dollar rises, for you are selling assets for cash. They overlook the fact that in 1929, the US had a balanced budget. The world was buying dollars because Europe defaulted on its debt, which rippled through the financial system, causing 9,000 US bank failures in the United States just as the Mortgage Crisis in the US hit European banks.

So, if there was a Great Crash, does that mean you want to sell all tangible assets, from stocks to real estate, and go to the dollar and government bonds? Is that what you really want to do with Biden throwing money out the window in every direction BUT the domestic economy?

US 1920 1950
FED Interest Rate 1929 1932

Most of these pretend analysts only look at the chart of 1929 and keep predicting a 90% crash. The dollar went up from 1929 into 1931 when the Sovereign Debt Crisis occurred. I had to read The Great Crash in high school. It was not until I found a copy of Herbert Hoover’s memoirs in an antique bookstore in London that changed my life.  Nowhere in Galbraith’s book was there ever any mention of a Sovereign Debt Default because, like FDR, they were trying to see Marxism and blame everything on the private sector, so the government was the promised land.

Between 1929 and 1931, you sold private assets and moved to cash. However, look at what happened when the Sovereign Debt Crisis hit in 1931. The dollar fell with the stock market into 1932. People did not want either and assumed that most of Europe defaulted on their debt, so surely the US would be next. The fall in the dollar meant GOLD declined since there was a gold standard. Roosevelt was elected, and then he CONFISCATED gold BECAUSE he planned to devalue the dollar to inflate his way out of the Depression.

Most of what you hear about the coming Great Crash is distorted history. Some tout rising interest rates. Well, the Fed lowered rates from 6% to 1.5%, and it did NOT support the market. In fact, as always, the Bull market into 1929 took place with rising interest rates. When Trump took office, they called it the Trump Bull Market, and the Fed raised rates throughout his administration.

There is a lot more to this than superficial analysis. We will include a detailed review at the WEC.

Hoover Quote
WEC_2023_Sovereign Debt Crisis
Nov 4 2023

Jobs, Wages and Official Labor Reports Continue Showing Major Disconnects from Reality on Main Street


Posted originally on the CTH on November 3, 2023 | Sundance 

I have not written as much about the economic analysis coming from the official institutions of government because, well, quite frankly, none of it has made sense for several months.  In this era of great pretending, I am reminded of the official catchphrase which began in 2021, “managing the transition.”

When you contemplate that “managing the transition” can also equate to controlling public opinion, and when you overlap the dynamic of large U.S. institutions manipulating information in order to control that opinion, then suddenly the trust in the data evaporates.   When the reality of the economic situation you can measure, gauge, and sense on Main Street is increasingly detached from the government data about what’s happening on Main Street, things get weird.

EXAMPLE TODAY – Bureau of Labor and Statistics: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent.” That’s the topline as announced.

Then you drop to the adjustments on the same report: “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.”

September and October are generally significant upticks in labor, as the process for holiday preparation (shipping, transport, etc.) are underway.  However, that historic pattern is no longer applicable.  We see consumer trends in a downward direction, general uneasiness of the economic situation is relayed by businesses and consumers who are the key to reality, and yet the official reporting reflects something entirely different.  Thus, you must ask yourself if this is part of the aforementioned “managing the transition.”

Additionally, staying with the bigger (non-pretending) picture, the U.S. government intentionally imports 7.5 million illegal aliens.  Where are they in the data of employment conditions?   Is there a metric that can evaluate the impact of a non-skilled labor influx that takes place simultaneous to a negative economic reality of inflation and diminished wages felt by those traditionally measured.

When you look carefully at the data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Dept of Labor (DoL) and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), what you come away with is the data-driven impression of something that you cannot actually see in the reality of the economic world around you.  Quite simply, none of it makes sense.

If you begin talking about the disconnect, you enter a sphere of sounding like a conspiracy theorist.   Would the official institutions of economic analysis actually manipulate data as an outcome of the larger goal to “manage the transition”?  For me the answer is an emphatic, yes.   However, how do you quantify that disconnect when the people with a vested interest in hiding any conflict are the same people who control the release of the data?

It is a reality that 75% of the American people feel their economic situation has worsened and continues to be worse.  Many people are increasingly incapable of staying ahead of increases in cost of living.  Govt institutions say inflation has come under control, yet the prices continue skyrocketing and everyone can feel it.  Financial insecurity is the new normal amid a growing population, while the managers of the transition say, ‘all is well.’

The only thing that brings a person back from the world of crazy speak, is a review of actual ground reports on Main Street from people who are living their daily lives and trying to cope with the costs of maintaining that standard.  Almost everyone expresses having more difficulty keeping their financial head above water.  Yet the data released by government paints a different picture.   The distance between reality and ‘official data’ has never been wider than it is today.

Fewer goods are being manufactured.  Fewer goods are being shipped.  Fewer sales are taking place.   In a naturally contracting cycle this would mean less jobs.  However, the data shows job growth.

♦Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
♦Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000).
♦Social assistance added 19,000 jobs in October, compared with the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months.
♦In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000), about in line with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and construction of buildings (+6,000).
♦Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity.
♦In October, employment in leisure and hospitality changed little (+19,000). The industry had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
♦Employment in professional and business services was little changed in October (+15,000) and has shown little net change since May. Employment in temporary help services changed little over the month (+7,000) but is 229,000 below its peak in March 2022.
♦In October, employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed (-12,000) and has shown little net change over the year. Over the month, warehousing and storage lost 11,000 jobs, while air transportation added 4,000 jobs.
♦Information employment changed little in October (-9,000). Employment in motion picture and sound recording continued to trend down (-5,000); the industry has lost 44,000 jobs since May, at least partially reflecting the impact of an ongoing labor dispute.

DATA

What do you see happening in/around your area?   How are the employment conditions nearest you?