Tag Archives: Universal Basic Income

Nov 5 2023

Interview: Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Watch the video above or click here to watch my latest interview with Goldseek Radio.

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.

Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”

– Epic gold breakout ahead!
– Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts?
– Comments on crude oil.
– On the cusp of WWIII by 2025?
– How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite.
– Might societal decay accelerate?
– Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse.
– 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.

Oct 27 2023

Biden: If There Were Not An Israel We’d Have to Invent One


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

For those wondering if the US is using Israel as a vassal state, simply look at what President Biden has been spewing since the 80s. “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one,” Biden first said during a Senate session in 1986 after sending Israel $3 billion. Straight from the horse’s mouth, America funds Israel “to protect US interests in the region.”

Israel is a strategic military base for the West. It permitted America to keep an eye on not just oil but opium as well. America did not need to “create” an Israel since Britain basically did back in 1948. Israel is not a charity and the West does not fund it because of religion. Yes, Israel was zoned for those of Jewish faith after World War II, but the true reason it was created was to provide the Allies with power in the Middle East.

America alone has provided Israel with $158 billion since 1948, prior to the Hamas attack. This money was not a loan but rather an investment. The US is now sending the nation over $100 billion and counting. Without Israel, Western forces would have no reason to patrol the seas or surround the region. Power and money are the only aspects that motivate governments. No one is funding this war out of concern for the people.

This is why the West immediately began building up Israel’s military. France provided Israel with the ability to build nuclear weapons near Dimona in the Negev Desert. When this became public knowledge in 1960, Eisenhower feigned shock, and the media began reporting that the factory was being used to create textiles rather than nuclear weapons.

Former French Foreign Minister Maurice Couve de Murville admitted in December 1960 that France assisted Israel in creating a “replica of [the] Marcoule plant.” France needed to protect its colonies in North Africa at the time and relied on Israeli intelligence. France provided the raw materials and arms while the US aided with financing through tax-deductible charities. Egypt had nationalized the Suez Canal, and France and Britain considered invading to seize the area. Then the former Soviet Union threatened to intervene and the world was ready to use the Middle East as their battleground. Now Russia is funding a nuclear plant near that area on behalf of Egypt. And yet, Israel’s current policy is to neither confirm nor deny if they have a nuclear program. Look at history and you will see how everything has been unfolding in accordance to the war cycle.

So yes, Israel became a vassal state after the Second World War in preparation for the third.

Oct 27 2023

Christians are on the FBI Watchlist


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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America was once a Christian nation with shared values, morals, and traditions. The government has done everything possible to remove any mention of God, as there can be no higher entity. This goes far beyond separating the church from state. Christian beliefs have been demonized with this woke agenda that goes against all mainstream religions. Worse, a leaked FBI memo reveals that Christians are being watched and labeled “radical traditionalists” and “potential terrorists.”

“If the world hates you, remember that it hated me first.” John 15:18

The FBI has been sending undercover agents into churches, predominately Catholic Churches. “Interest of Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists in Radical-Traditionalist Catholic Ideology Almost Certainly Presents New Mitigation Opportunities,” was leaked in January but no one has been held responsible and Christians are still being targeted by the government.

The FBI deemed pro-life supporters as terrorists. Why? This clearly violates the constitution and shows that the government wants to dismantle religion.

Amendment I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Who authorized FBI agents to attend Sunday masses and treat Christians as domestic terrorists? Pro-abortionists were permitted to interrupt church services, screaming, “Jesus hates you! Fund abortion, not cops!” Now if that happened in a synagogue or a mosque, those people would be arrested for a hate crime. Soros and the Open Society Foundation openly funds pro-abortion protests and rallies. Alex Soros commented in 2019, “Far-right and anti-abortion groups around the world are emboldened by the Trump administration’s extreme policies that are harming vulnerable groups and undermining global health.” They are aiming to group religion and politics together. The Open Society Foundations spent millions to repeal abortion restrictions in the US and Europe, and it was successful in repealing some restrictions in Ireland. Yet, the parishioners are seen as violent terrorists? The FBI has truly become Biden’s Gestapo as conservative views are not permitted under his rule. The FBI infiltrated American churches without just cause. Nothing is sacred anymore.

Oct 4 2023

A Strong Possibility Twitter Will IPO and Go Public Again, Here’s Why


Posted originally on the CTH on October 3, 2023 | Sundance 

I wasn’t going to write about this, but so many requests and contacts have come in, and considering that my background conversations with people are leading to actionable positioning, that I feel it is only fair to share publicly what I am analyzing privately.

The predicate for all assumptions is several fold: {Go Deep One} and {Go Deep Two}. Most of the financial groundwork for analysis already exists. In summary, Elon paid $44 billion for the platform. Current valuations are around $15 billion.  Current debt service is $1.5 billion/yr (roughly $100m/mo).  Current expenses include $100m/yr AWS, $100m/yr Goog cloud (both contracts), +payroll and misc.

Approximately 9 months ago, Musk had $1 billion in cash reserve for Twitter.  The burn rate deficit was roughly $100m/month. That put timeline estimates for an inflection point on/around October 2023.  It is now October 2023.

Approximately a week ago, Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino made a bold statement.  Yaccarino stated that from her review of the current status, Twitter would start to turn a profit in the first quarter of 2024 {link}.  However, with $100 million per month in debt service alone, this statement seemed too far of a stretch.  At pre-musk levels of revenue, maybe; but that $1.5 billion debt service is a heavy nut to carry.

Timing – Remember, it’s October.  Last Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave special regulatory approval to Bill Ackman’s firm, Pershing Square (hedge fund), for a new investment vessel called SPARC, whose purpose is to invest in private companies in order to take them public.  As noted by CNBC, “In a SPARC, investors will know what company the financing vehicle would be used to merge with before they have to pledge their investments.”  The financial mechanism avoids some of the issues with typical IPO’s.

•It’s October, inflection time.  •Yaccarino says a strategy is underway for profitability in Q1 2024.  •Ackman gets SPARC approval, and then suddenly:

[…] “The answer is I have a lot of respect for Musk. I think Twitter is a really important platform,” Ackman told CNBC. “I think he’s made tremendous improvements to the platform, and I think it’s a unique, very difficult-to-disrupt, kind of asset and one that could grow.” 

[…] Though Musk hasn’t expressed any interest in working with Ackman to take X public, and despite the $13 billion in debt tacked to the company, Ackman has worked out a loose plan to make it happen, if Musk were interested. 

“What’s interesting here is we could commit $2 billion to a transaction, set the rights price to $121 million, set it at $100 a share and announce a transaction,” he said. 

“And then we tell the story and then the rights holders have a chance to decide whether to invest. As long as the rights have positive value, they’re all going to get exercised, and the IPO raises $13 billion.” (read more)

The heavy nut disappears.

Investors roll the debt into discounted shares of stock.  If Ackman can generate a $17-$20 billion outcome for Twitter, Musk nets $5b and retains 20-25% of shares.  Yaccarino gets well compensated.  It’s a win/win/win.

Critics would say the IPO would mean Musk compromising on the free speech commitment.  However, in reality Musk has already reinstalled many of the control mechanisms of the previous “safety council,” along with the “freedom of speech, not freedom of reach” outlook.  Musk and Yaccarino have also partnered with the Global Disinformation Index.

The compromises are already baked into the platform, and seemingly have been since Yaccarino became CEO.  The 2024 election is next year, and influence is a lucrative business.

Sep 30 2023

Frances Fox Piven vs. Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell (Video 1980)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized R-Posted Sep 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Sep 17 2023

The Birth of the US Dollar


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Sep 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Thomas Jefferson Act of Congress Signed as Secretary of State, January 14th, 1793,

Second Congress of the United States (1743-1826)

As Secretary of State, Thomas Jefferson amended a previous Act, “establishing a Mint and regulating the Coins of the United States,” establishing the copper weight specifications for the first US coins issued in 1793 – the Cent and Half Cent. This is a document from our collection on the Monetary System of the World, establishes the birth of the US dollar authorizing the first issue of the coinage of the United States. It is unique and of tremendous historical importance.

The first copper coins created by the new United States of America were introduced into circulation in March of 1793. This document is signed “Th’ Jefferson” as Secretary of State and countersigned (in type) by George Washington as President, John Adams as Vice President and President of the Senate, and Jonathan Trumbull as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

“Second Congress of the United States: At the Second Session, begun and held at the City of Philadelphia, in the state of Pennsylvania, on Monday, the fifth of November, one thousand seven hundred and ninety-two. An act establishing a Mint, and regulating the coins of the United States, so far as respects the Coinage of Copper.”

“Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That every cent shall contain two hundred and eight grains of copper, and every half cent shall contain one hundred and four grains of copper; and that so much of the act ‘An act establishing a mint, and regulating the coins of the United States,’ as respects the weight of cents and half cents, shall be, and the same is hereby repealed…. Approved January fourteenth 1793…”

Sep 15 2023

Tucker Carlson Explores Argentina and the Reality of Chasing Socialism


Posted originally on the CTH on September 14, 2023 | Sundance 

Tucker Carlson went to Buenos Aires, Argentina for a review of the country as it collapses under hyperinflation.  He shared a preview last evening.  {Direct Rumble Link}

https://rumble.com/embed/v3evox2/?pub=as0d9
Sep 4 2023

Populism v Democracy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: You are just a Trump supporter. Nothing else.

REPLY: I feel sorry for you. You cannot obviously question whatever the government tells you. You are the prime example of what Stanley Milgram uncovered – Obedience to Authority. I hope you have no family. Under your guidance, you have condemned their future to economic slavery, just as I saw in East Germany before the wall fell. You do not have the courage to even sign your comment. I strongly recommend you read Stanley’s book.

No person is perfect – Trump included. You hate Trump so much, but you think our politicians in Washington really care about you? Good luck with that one.

Here is John Kerry also explaining that democracy is populism when it votes them out of power and must be terminated. This is your Climate Zar who flies around in his private jet telling coal minors to make solar panels, and you should live in his 15-minute cities and walk everywhere – no more cars.

I am so glad I am not 18 years old. It’s people like you who are cheering on a new Dark Age. They call it the Dark Age after Rome fell in 476 AD. Thus, Europe was thrust into a time of “darkness.” The years that would follow, lack of books, freedom, knowledge, any scientific advancement, and the collapse of all cultural advancement until the Renaissance. You already live in a Darl Age imposed by censorship, which is the beginning of the decline and fall.

Aug 28 2023

Teaching Hedging


Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Aug 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I just wanted to thank you. I attended your 1985 World Economic Conference, and you taught me how to hedge. That made my career, and now I am about to retire. Nobody was teaching hedging in the early 1980s. You have impacted the world far more than you realize.

I will be at the WEC this year in my official capacity. Next year, it will be for me personally. I sincerely wanted to thank you, and you should post this. The newbies need to know you were there decades before anyone else.

God bless.

GK

REPLY: George, it has been a long journey. I am glad I helped you in your career. You have always been there for me and I appreciate old friends. BTW, they still do not teach hedging in universities. Just amazing.

Aug 18 2023

Japan Exports Fall in July, Driven by 14.3% Decline in Shipments to China


Posted originally on the CTH on August 17, 2023 | Sundance 

Some economic data released by the land of the rising sun points to a larger global weakness in manufacturing demand.   Within the data year-over-year exports from Japan fell in July by 0.3%, which is the first time since 2021 the contraction was noted.

Digging a little deeper, the weakness in Japanese exports is driven primarily by a decline in exports to China of 14.3% in July, which follows a 10.9% decline in June.  Japan is a component supplier to China, which would indicate the demand for Chinese products globally is substantially less than Beijing has previously admitted.

That said, Japan’s direct export of finished goods to the U.S. actually increased 13.5%, mostly driven by the export of electric vehicles.

However, 13.5% is identical to the overall decrease in Japanese imports.

Essentially, component parts to China are down, but completed finished goods to the U.S. are up.  Overall, the results from Japan point to a soft overall global economic status, the result of continued contraction of Western economic activity.

TOKYO, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell in July for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years, dragged down by faltering demand for light oil and chip-making equipment, underlining concerns about a global recession as demand in key markets such as China weaken.

Japanese exports fell 0.3% in July year-on-year, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed on Thursday, compared with a 0.8% decrease expected by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a 1.5% rise in the previous month.

[…] Japanese policymakers are counting on exports to shore up the world’s No. 3 economy and pick up the slack in private consumption that has suffered due to rising prices.

However, the spectre of a sharper global slowdown and faltering growth in Japan’s major market China have raised concerns about the outlook.

The World Bank has warned that higher interest rates and tighter credit will take a bigger toll on global growth in 2024. (read more)

Meanwhile, I would not bet against Michael Burry.

Burry is betting against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this week, according to his fund’s latest releases. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.  The filing shows that he is now holding options against the S&P 500, hedging $886.6 million against the index.

The filing also revealed that Burry sold his shares in Capitol One, First Republic, PacWest Bancorp, Wells Fargo and Western Alliance after betting on them earlier this year in Trying to make money from the regional banking crisis.  Burry also sold his stakes in Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com.

In addition, he bought $738.8 million in put options against the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF – a fund made up of popular high-tech Nasdaq companies, such as big tech companies Apple and Microsoft as well as Nvidia, Tesla and PepsiCo.

Burry has pulled money out of China investments and U.S. banks and is hedging against tech and the S&P.  He took these positions before the data from Japanese exports to China was released.