Q1 GDP At Risk As Trade Deficit Balloons Near 9 Year Highs


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On the heels of a disappointing revised Q4 GDP print, the US trade balance for January printed a $69.2 billion deficit. This is the second largest deficit since August 2008 (slightly smaller than the March 2015 plunge) as the dollar surge has not helped.

The biggest driver the deficit increase was  4.8% MoM increase in Consumer Goods (notably Auto exports rose 9.3%)

The $69.2bn deficit is considerably worse than the $66.0 billion expectations, and is lower than the lowest analyst expectation.

Certainly not a good sign for Q1 GDP expectations.

As BofAML notes, combining trade data with inventories for January, this slices 0.2pp from Q1 GDP tracking, leaving us at 1.8% for the quarter.

The USD strength has not helped…

 

So time for another rate hike to reverse that recent drop in the USD and stymie the US economy even more via its trade d

Virtue-Signaling The Decline Of The Empire


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Via Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Virtue-signaling doesn’t signal virtue–it signals decline and collapse.

There are many reasons why Imperial Rome declined, but two primary causes that get relatively little attention are moral decay and soaring wealth inequality. The two are of course intimately connected: once the morals of the ruling Elites degrade, the status quo seeks to mask its self-serving rot behind high-minded “virtue-signaling” appeals to past glories and cost-free idealism.

Virtue signaling is defined as “the conspicuous expression of moral values by an individual done primarily with the intent of enhancing that person’s standing within a social group,” “the practice of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one’s good character or the moral correctness of one’s position on a particular issue” and “Saying you love or hate something to show off what a virtuous person you are, instead of actually trying to fix the problem.” Yes, yes and yes.

“Virtue-signaling” expresses two other key characteristics of an empire in terminal decline: complacency and intellectual sclerosis.

Michael Grant described these manifestations of decline in his excellent account The Fall of the Roman Empire, a short book I have been recommending since 2009:

There was no room at all, in these ways of thinking, for the novel, apocalyptic situation which had now arisen, a situation which needed solutions as radical as itself. (The Status Quo) attitude is a complacent acceptance of things as they are, without a single new idea.

This acceptance was accompanied by greatly excessive optimism about the present and future. Even when the end was only sixty years away, and the Empire was already crumbling fast, Rutilius continued to address the spirit of Rome with the same supreme assurance.

This blind adherence to the ideas of the past ranks high among the principal causes of the downfall of Rome. If you were sufficiently lulled by these traditional fictions, there was no call to take any practical first-aid measures at all.

What are those “resisting Trump” proposing as solutions to the profound structural ills afflicting the empire? Gender-neutral bathrooms? A continuation of a dysfunctional immigration policy? Blaming Russia to mask the catastrophic failure of the past 25 years of neocon imperial over-reach? Cost-free “virtue-signaling” proclamations in support of diversity? “Safe places” on college campuses paid for by student loans crushing a vast indentured class of debt-serfs?

These status quo policies and cost-free diversions are the acme of a profound complacency and intellectual sclerosis that serve to defend a self-serving, morally corrupt political and financial elite.

Virtue-signaling pronouncements lack any recognition of the moral, political, social and financial crises facing the American empire, and are devoid of any practical, politically/financially painful first-aid measures to staunch the decline.

Glenn Stehle, commenting on 9/16/15 on a thread in the excellent website peakoilbarrel.com (operated by the estimable Ron Patterson) made a number of excellent points that I am taking the liberty of excerpting: (with thanks to correspondent Paul S.)

The set of values developed by the early Romans called mos maiorum, Peter Turchin explains in War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, was gradually replaced by one of personal greed and pursuit of self-interest.

“Probably the most important value was virtus (virtue), which derived from the word vir (man) and embodied all the qualities of a true man as a member of society,” explains Turchin.

“Virtus included the ability to distinguish between good and evil and to act in ways that promoted good, and especially the common good. Unlike Greeks, Romans did not stress individual prowess, as exhibited by Homeric heroes or Olympic champions. The ideal of hero was one whose courage, wisdom, and self-sacrifice saved his country in time of peril,” Turchin adds.

And as Turchin goes on to explain:

“Unlike the selfish elites of the later periods, the aristocracy of the early Republic did not spare its blood or treasure in the service of the common interest. When 50,000 Romans, a staggering one fifth of Rome’s total manpower, perished in the battle of Cannae, as mentioned previously, the senate lost almost one third of its membership. This suggests that the senatorial aristocracy was more likely to be killed in wars than the average citizen….

The wealthy classes were also the first to volunteer extra taxes when they were needed… A graduated scale was used in which the senators paid the most, followed by the knights, and then other citizens. In addition, officers and centurions (but not common soldiers!) served without pay, saving the state 20 percent of the legion’s payroll….

The richest 1 percent of the Romans during the early Republic was only 10 to 20 times as wealthy as an average Roman citizen.”

Now compare that to the situation in Late Antiquity when

“an average Roman noble of senatorial class had property valued in the neighborhood of 20,000 Roman pounds of gold. There was no “middle class” comparable to the small landholders of the third century B.C.; the huge majority of the population was made up of landless peasants working land that belonged to nobles. These peasants had hardly any property at all, but if we estimate it (very generously) at one tenth of a pound of gold, the wealth differential would be 200,000! Inequality grew both as a result of the rich getting richer (late imperial senators were 100 times wealthier than their Republican predecessors) and those of the middling wealth becoming poor.”

Do you see any similarities with the present-day realities depicted in these charts? A self-serving class of Technocrats and bureaucratic Nomenklatura have garnered all the gains, while the bottom 90% have lost ground in wages, wealth and financial security.

This Technocrat/Nomenklatura class controls both private and public powers (media, finance, trade, industry, governance and institutions) which serve its own interests.

 

What we have now is a self-serving “virtue-signaling” technocrat class that works for a self-serving political/financial elite that avoids the imperial burdens of military service and taxes while imposing what amounts to an economic military conscription on the working class. This Imperial elite sends these military conscripts around the globe to defend their Imperial interests.

Virtue-signaling doesn’t signal virtue–it signals decline and collapse. Just as in 5th century Rome–an empire careening toward collapse–those reaping the gains are complacently confident in their moral superiority while their hubris-soaked intellectual sclerosis blinds them to the systemic banquet of consequences that will soon choke their precious self-serving status quo.

Paul Joseph Watson EXPOSES Media, Sweden & Leftist Censorship


Trump Drains Swamp To Fund Defense


WATCH: Judge Jeanine Pirro FANTASTIC Speech at CPAC 2017 – Judge Jeanine Pirro CPAC FULL SPEECH


RUSH: What Ashley Judd Really Means Is She Feels ‘RAPED By All Of Us’


Trump Accuses Obama Of Being Behind Protests, Leaks


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In an interview with Fox & Friends that aired early Tuesday morning, President Trump blamed former President Obama for protests against him and other Republicans, as well as “possibly” some of the leaks from the White House: “I think President Obama’s behind it, because his people are certainly behind it.”

Trump was asked if he believed Obama was responsible for the town hall protests against Republicans this month: “It turns out his organization seems to do a lot of these organizing to some of the protests that these Republicans are seeing around the country against you. Do you believe President Obama is behind it and if he is, is that a violation of the so-called unsaid presidents’ code?” Trump was asked.

“No, I think he is behind it, because his people are certainly behind it. I also think it is politics, that’s the way it is,” Trump replied.

Trump discussed the leaks that have disrupted his first month in office: “You never know what’s exactly happening behind the scenes. You know, you’re probably right or possibly right, but you never know. No, I think that President Obama is behind it because his people are certainly behind it. And some of the leaks possibly come from that group, which are really serious because they are very bad in terms of national security. But I also understand that is politics. In terms of him being behind things, that’s politics. And it will probably continue.”

Trump did not offer any evidence for his claim in the clip released by Fox Monday night. CNN reported that it has reached out to Obama’s office for comment. A broad coalition of groups including Organizing For Action, the SEIU, MoveOn.org and the Center for American Progress have been working to help with grassroots organizing around GOP town halls.

Organizing for Action, the group formed from Obama’s campaign organization, has 14 professional organizers, for example, who are involved in teaching local activists skills to effectively vocalize opposition to the GOP’s top agenda items.

Earlier this month, Trump told Fox News that reports of his calls with the leaders of Mexico and Australia were caused by leaks from “Obama people.”

Trump’s administration has been plagued by leaks within his administration to the media, and he has continually railed against those doing the leaking and the media since taking office, even slamming the FBI for being unable to root out the leakers. He has said the leaks are damaging to national security.

* * *

And speaking of the leaks, Trump said that he would’ve handled the crackdown on government leaks differently than Sean Spicer, having “one-on-one sessions with a few people,” instead of the way White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer did it: in an “emergency meeting” for White House communications staffers where he asked them to dump their phones on the table for a “phone check” to prove they had nothing to hide.

* * *

Additionally, Trump also discussed accusations that he is a racist, especially in the aftermath of the Academy Awards where the topic prevailed, and wrote them off as “purely politics.”

“It just seems the other side whenever they are losing badly they always pull out the race card,” Trump said in response to a question on Fox News’s “Fox & Friends” about host Jimmy Kimmel’s comments Sunday night at the Academy Awards.

“I’ve watched it for years. I’ve watched it against Ronald Reagan. I’ve watched it against so many other people. And they always like pulling out the race card,” Trump added. “The fact is I did pretty well, much better than past people in the Republican Party in the recent election having to do with Hispanics, having to do with African Americans, did pretty well or I wouldn’t be sitting here. I mean if I didn’t get numbers that were at least as good or better I wouldn’t be sitting here.”

When asked if he takes the attacks personally, Trump responded, “I can’t” and added that “I consider it a very serious violation when they say it and I have to write it off as being purely politics.”

* * *

Finally, Trump said he would give himself an “A” in achievement but in messaging a “C or C plus.” “In terms of messaging, I would give myself a C or a C plus,” Trump said. “In terms of achievement I think I’d give myself an A. Because I’ve done great things, but I don’t think we’ve explained it well enough to the American people.”

The President also gave himself an “A” for “effort.”

Markets will be closely watching Trump’s address to Congress in just over 13 hours, and grading him on every word to come out of his mouth, with some speculating that lack of any explicit, and overdue, details about his economic plans could be the final nail in the nearly four month old reflation trad

Target Plunges 12% After Missing Lowest EPS Estimate, Slashing Outlook


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When we discussed yesterday Reuters’ report that Wal-Mart is now actively “price testing” its products, and squeezing vendors in a scramble to preserve market share while keeping margins relatively flat, we cautioned that this is the latest indication of what appears to be a pervasive “deflationary shock” among the retail industry which is caught in a vicious fight for market share. This morning’s results from Target validated this observation: moments ago the retail giant reported Q4 EPS of $1.45, missing both consensus ($1.51) and the lowest Wall Street estimate ($1.47), even as Q4 revenue came largely in line with expectations of $20.7 billion, suggesting that holiday spending was indeed far worse

The internals were just as messy, with Target reporting comp sales of -1.5%, missing the -1.3% estimate, on gross margin of 26.9%

But the most troubling part of the release was the company’s disappointing guidance: Target now sees 1Q adj. EPS of 80c to $1.00, far below the consensus estimate $1.33, and also over 20% below the lowest firecast (range $1.26-$1.41). The bleeding is expected to continue on the back of a “Low-to-Mid Single Digit Decline” in comp store sales in both Q1 and the full year. Also, for the full year, Target sees adj. EPS of $3.80 to $4.20, wildly missing consensus of $5.34 (range $5.05-$5.60).

CEO Brian Cornell was rather downbeat: “Our fourth quarter results reflect the impact of rapidly-changing consumer behavior, which drove very strong digital growth but unexpected softness in our stores. At our meeting with the financial community this morning, we will provide detail on the meaningful investments we’re making in our business and financial model which will position Target for long-term, sustainable growth in this new era in retail. We will accelerate our investments in a smart network of physical and digital assets as well as our exclusive and differentiated assortment, including the launch of more than 12 new brands, representing more than $10 billion of our sales, over the next two years. In addition, we will invest in lower gross margins to ensure we are clearly and competitively priced every day.”

Cornell concluded that while he is confident the proposed changes will best-position Target for continued success over the long term “the transition to this new model will present headwinds to our sales and profit performance in the short term.”

In other words, expect more of the same from America’s biggest retailers who are now stuck in a fight for market share, even as prices continue to decline, forcing CFOs to come up with increasingly more innovative ways of preserving margins and profits.

At last check, TGT was trading 12% lower after the earnings, wiping out $4 billion in market cap and weighing in on peers such as Walmart.

KOMMONSENTSJANE – Town halls – Chicago Sun-Time


The progressives are trying emulate a Grassroots Conservative Movement like the Tea Party — what they don’t realize is the republicans didn’t create the tea party nor did they want it — it happened because we did not like what was going on in Washington from both parties. It was true grassroots and the progressives are only creating AstroTurf by trying to force something with money. It will not work but let them waste their money all it does is suport the real movement against them.

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Chicago Sun-Times

‘Liberal activists’ are stacking town halls

FACT CHECK

Trump’s Twitter post suggests the Democrats are stacking the deck against him at the town halls.

They are trying to do just that.

The organizers may be paid to turnout out folks who will not get money to attend a protest or a town hall.

The Democratic Priorities USA Partners and Indivisible, a new group of Democratic organizers, just partnered on a project to influence the town halls.

There is a difference, however, between paid political organizers, and the people they organize to attend an event.

From a Priorities and Indivisible release last week: “In partnership with Indivisible, a grassroots group that has taken the lead in empowering citizen activists to attend town hall events across the country to hold their Members of Congress accountable, Priorities USA will launch a digital ad program to help ensure voters know about events…

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KOMMONSENTSJANE – ACLJ REQUESTS RECORDS FROM DOJ AND INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ON OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S LAST MINUTE EXPANSION OF ACCESS TO INTELLIGENCE INFO


Trump really needs to put a stop to this practice as it is clearly unconstitutional!

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National Security
ACLJ Requests Records from DOJ and Intelligence Agencies on Obama Administration’s Last Minute Expansion of Access to Intelligence Information
By ACLJ.org

Jay Sekulow

Today we delivered Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Office of the Director of National Security (ODNI), and the National Security Agency (NSA) to find out why the Obama Administration waited until mere days before a new Administration took over to implement a significant change in intelligence policy.

As we’ve stated before, this significant policy change appears to have a direct correlation to the exponentially increased number of intel leaks the Trump Administration has been dealing with.

By greatly expanding access to classified information by unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats, the Obama Administration paved the way for a shadow government to leak that classified information, endangering our national security, in an attempt to undermine President Trump.

While sharing information…

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