Category UN a New World Order

Apr 29 2022

Stagflation Arrives, U.S. Economy Shrinks 1.4 Percent in First Quarter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 28, 2022

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the First Quarter GDP figures today [DATA HERE] showing the U.S. economy contracted -1.4% in the first quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import.  The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.

The first quarter result was an annualized rate of negative 1.4 percent, meaning the U.S. economy is shrinking.   However, this should not come as a surprise as the primary driver of our GDP is consumer spending.  With everything costing more, less stuff is purchased.  Less stuff purchased leads to less stuff generated.

While the first quarter result of -1.4% is not a surprise, in the commonsense perspective, the fact that BEA didn’t revise the fourth quarter result of +6.9% is a little eye opening.  There’s no way in an apples-to-apples valuation the U.S. economy goes from +6.9% to -1.4% in one quarter.  Instead, what we are seeing is the effect we mentioned when the Q4 result was announced.  The BEA is modifying their assumptions by increasing the inflation rate in their calculations of the value of goods and services.  They really didn’t have a choice.

You might remember my prior opinion that the Q4 numbers were very overinflated because of two factors: (1) they underestimated inflation; and (2) the December 2021 import data from the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) was missing [NOTE: remember, Buttigieg was there in November and POLA supervisors are on team Biden].  I said at the time that if my hunch was correct the first quarter 2022 import data would be magnified by the December POLA data being added.  Remember, imports are a deduction to the GDP equation.

Well, what shows up in Q1?  A massive increase in first quarter import data that surprised everyone.  Go figure… lol.

Let’s look at the data

♦ {TABLE 1 TOP LINES}  We can see the economy contracted by 1.4% overall.

When you look at the +4.1% growth in durable goods we must factor in the BEA inflation assumption.  Did more durable good units get sold, not likely.  It’s likely less units sold but at a higher price, therefore the aggregate value of the durable goods gives a false impression of an increase.

Consider nondurable goods declining by 2.5%.  Did less food, fuel and energy get consumed at higher prices?  Or was the inflation assumption wrong?

Also check out the Exports change from Q4 (2021) to Q1 (2022).  From +23.4 to -9.6.  That’s a big change in exports.

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♦ {Table 4 Tells a story}  Now we are looking at prices.

The value of our exports leaves the U.S. carrying the increased rate of U.S. inflation to produce them.  A whopping +22.9% in price.

However, the value of the imports (again in dollars) is only 15.9% higher.

All things being equal, there’s a 7% price difference between exports and imports.

Inflation is high globally; however, inflation is higher here in the U.S. than overseas.

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Remember, the GDP isn’t a measure of the actual outputs of stuff created, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is only measuring the aggregate value of the stuff, ie. what it’s worth.

  • 20 trillion units at $1.00 per unit equals $20 trillion dollars.
  • 20 trillion units at $1.05 per unit equals $21 trillion dollars.
  • An increase of 5% in economic valuation (GDP), but we haven’t created a single product more.

Did our economy contract by only 1.4% in the first quarter?  Or are we seeing inflation continually skewing the valuation of goods and services, while the actual outputs in the economy are shrinking by much more?

Did you pay 20% more at the grocery store and leave with more food stuff?  Or did you pay 20% more at the checkout and leave with less food stuff than previous?

I think we all know the answer to those questions.

Checkbook economics is the only economics that matters.

“Stagflation” is here.

Apr 29 2022

White House NSA Organizes Security Summit With 50 Nation Peers to Discuss Future of the Internet


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 28, 2022

Given what we discussed yesterday, this announcement {SEE HERE} should leave us all feeling warm and fuzzy… NOT!

(SOURCE)

What could possibly go wrong when the National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, organizes a “minister level launch of the Declaration for the Future of the Internet.”   Put more succinctly, that would be 50 nation intelligence ministers getting together to decide what they will permit on the internet.

Apparently, a collective partner rule book is forthcoming.   Big Tech will be given specific instructions on how to comply.

The global rulebook on how to handle, define and eliminate ‘disinformation’, ‘misinformation’ and ‘malinformation’ on the world-wide internet.

Sounds like satire, but it’s totally legit.

This meeting provides more context for the formation of a Homeland Security “disinformation board.”

Apr 28 2022

US Asks Germany to Hold Off on Russian Energy Sanctions Until Midterm Elections


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Apr 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Reports are circling that the Biden Administration has begged Germany to hold off on banning Russian oil until after the midterm elections. The Democrats are so desperate to win amid their record-low popularity that they are openly asking other nations to alter major policies at the expense of the people. Biden has banned Russian energy imports, but the EU, which is more reliant on Russian energy, must wait.

Banning Russian energy will backfire on Europe and send aftershocks throughout the market. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock initially announced that Germany would cease purchases from Russia but quickly changed her stance. Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that Germany would support Ukraine but not at the expense of the German people. “It was a mistake that Germany became so heavily dependent on energy imports from Russia,” she admitted after avoiding warnings years ago.

Germany is the #1 importer of Russian energy, with 34% of its total petroleum coming from Russia. Nearly half of Germany’s coal is tied to Russia, and one-third of homes are heated with Russian imported oil. Germany purchased 27 billion tons of crude from Russia in 2021 alone.

Zelensky has cried that the EU is spending “blood money” on Russian energy without understanding there is no immediate alternative. Zelensky accused nations who purchase Russian oil of being guilty of genocide and war crimes. “If Russians are committing war crimes, even genocide, whoever is supplying Russia with this bloody money is guilty of the same war crime.” If he had his way, he would punish each nation accordingly.

Germany recently stated they will ban Russian oil by the end of the year, regardless of the repercussions, and will ban gas imports by next year. While it is unconfirmed whether Biden begged Scholz to hold off on additional sanctions, the prospect is highly likely. In the end, Biden, Scholz, and Zelensky are subservient to the Build Back Better agenda, and policies will be aimed at that socialistic goal rather than what is best for the people.

Apr 28 2022

The Useless Class


Armstrong Economics Blog/WEF Re-Posted Apr 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yuval Noah Harari, a self-described historian and one of Schwab’s loudest mouthpieces, believes that we will see the rise of the “useless class.” Harari noted how during the industrial revolution, people went from working on the farm to working in a car factory. He described it as transferring from one low-skilled job to another low-skilled job.

Since automation is leading the new world, future job prospects in 20 to 30 years are unknown. Harari believes it is impossible to know what to teach children today to make them productive citizens in the future. There will be “a new massive useless class that has no military or economic usefulness, and therefore no political power,” he stated. This is another push toward the World Economic Forum’s goal of government control – you need us but we don’t need you.

History tells us that farming is certainly not a low-skill profession. Look at what happened when Mao killed off all the farmers in China. A low-paying profession does not mean it is low-skilled. Our society could not function without farmers or automotive workers. Additionally, he does not take into account the beauty of creative destruction cited by Schumpeter. The brick and mortar retail stores may be gone in 20 years, but new positions will arise and people will develop skills and adapt to those roles. As for education, schools can begin by teaching children to think independently and question everything (not their gender). Claiming that there will be countless people out of work, “useless” to society, opens the door to government welfare programs becoming commonplace.

I cannot help but to be reminded of Hitler’s classified “useless eaters.” Like those at the WEF, Hitler believed there was a class of humans among society who simply consumed but did not contribute. Instead of hoping they’d rely on government aid, he simply murdered them. Be on high alert when a global agency begins referring to portions of the population as “useless.”

Apr 28 2022

Socrates & the Ruble


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Apr 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I just wanted to comment that I am amazed that Socrates forecast the ruble through this mess showing a directional change in April leaving the March low intact. The ruble turned with your ECM target of March 14. Congrats. Your accomplishment is worth a Noble Prize for it actually works. Nobody had correctly forecasted these events. It is not hard to see how the government tortured you and your family for your accomplishment.

Do you think Putin took your advice on backing the ruble with gold?

PN

REPLY: Thank you. People fail to understand that events like these are just beyond human capability to reason and rationalize what will unfold. Nobody has lived through such events before so there is no possibility to rely upon personal experience. There are analysts who hate me and see this as competition. There are some things that just go far beyond human forecasting. Just compare the two Monthly Arrays from December and now. March was showing as a knee-jerk reaction and then there was a Directional Change in April. I do not think anyone in December could have foreseen the events of war and how the world economy would have been destroyed by Biden and his unimaginable sanctions. Even SWIFT refused in 2014 to remove Russia when asked by Obama. So how could anyone foresee such events?

Every government central bank and intelligence entity tunes into Socrates. Yes, my recommendation to Russia I published on March 23rd was to back the currency with gold in a reverse manner of FDR restricting the gold convertibility to domestic use rather than international. I did not speak with the Russian central bank, but I’m sure they understood the implication of what I suggested. The Russian Central Bank announced on April 5th that the ruble would be backed by gold making one gram of gold equal to 5,000 rubles.

Those pulling the strings connected to the mouths of Western world leaders are simply braindead. One day after Russia halted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to “nonpayment in rubles“, Putin confirmed that he was willing to go ahead and shut down supplies to “unfriendly” nations. He has sent European natural gas prices soaring. It is clear that Europe’s united front is cracking. Already four European gas buyers have paid for supplies in rubles. Europe is DOOMED without Russia and they better wake up and stop following whatever dribble comes from Biden’s mouth for they are words he himself does not even comprehend.

The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was put in that position by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum. Like Biden, she is selling war and the destruction of the world economy to achieve Schwab’s dream of his Great Reset to conquer the world with his vision of how it should operate.

Apr 28 2022

Foreign Money To Stop Fossil Fuels Pouring into Canada


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Apr 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 28 2022

Russia Stops Gas Supplies to Poland and Bulgaria Amid Ongoing Ukraine Battle


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 27, 2022

At the same time as Russia has targeted railway lines as part of the effort to block U.S. arms shipments into Eastern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has now followed through on the previous warning to stop Russian gas supplies unless payments are made in non-sanctioned Rubles.

Poland is obviously the primary target for retaliation here, as the NATO alliance is using Poland as the gateway for arms deliveries into Ukraine.

According to multiple reports from the EU Russia has halted gas shipments into Poland and Bulgaria.  (Reuters) “Gazprom Russia’s gas export monopoly, suspended gas supplies “due to absence of payments in roubles”, as stipulated in a decree from Russian President Vladimir Putin that aims to soften the impact of sanctions.”

There are conflicting reports as to whether Germany is paying Russia, or whether they are trying to avoid running afoul of the NATO alliance by reducing Russian imports.

Ukraine President Zelenskyy is using the opportunity to reinforce his position that all European countries need to stop purchasing energy from Russia, or else they are not supporting Ukraine.   However, it’s not as simple as it seems because multiple EU countries are dependent on Russia for energy products and there are no immediate alternatives.  Russia is leveraging this dependency in an effort to break the western sanctions.

(NBC) – […]  After months of threats, the Kremlin cut off gas supplies to two European Union nations Wednesday and warned others could be next.  The long-feared move against the continent’s energy supply marks a dramatic escalation of Moscow’s bid to weaken the collective resolve of Ukraine’s allies as they send growing numbers of weapons to help Kyiv fight.

[…] Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom announced Wednesday it had halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for failing to pay for gas in rubles, something Putin had demanded last month in response to tough sanctions imposed by the West on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. European buyers condemned Putin’s demand, saying it violated existing contracts with payments usually agreed on in dollars or euros, and called into question Russia’s reliability as a supplier.

[…] Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of petroleum and natural gas, and Europe is heavily reliant on imports from Russia for its energy supply. “In 2021, the European Union imported 155 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, accounting for around 45% of EU gas imports and close to 40% of its total gas consumption,” according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency. 

Meanwhile, Bulgaria imported more than 70 percent of its natural gas from Russia in 2020, E.U. data showed. In the same year, Poland relied on Russia for around 45 percent of its natural gas.

[…] Notably, the decision to cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria came the day after the United States and its allies gathered in Germany to pledge more heavy weapons for Ukraine as it steels its defenses for what could be a decisive battle in the eastern Donbas region.  (read more)

Somehow, on top of the $14+ billion in direct aid to Ukraine, Joe Biden is likely to figure out a way to put the U.S. taxpayer on the hook for most of the EU energy problems in an effort to save face for the White House in a U.S. proxy war against Russia.  Both wings of the UniParty congress are likely to support that effort.

FUBAR

(Reuters) – […]  So far, it was unclear whether Poland or Bulgaria will comply with Moscow’s demands. Both countries rely heavily on Russian imports via pipeline.

Polish gas company PGNiG, whose gas deal with Russia expires at the end of this year, has repeatedly said it would not comply with the new scheme. It has also said it would not extend the contract.  Poland says it does not have to cut supplies to customers. The country can source gas via two links with Germany including a reverse flow on the Yamal pipeline, a link with Lithuania with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm that will open on May 1 and via an interconnector with the Czech Republic for up to 1.5 bcm.

Bulgaria also had a contract with Gazprom due to expire at the end of the year. The country relies almost completely on Russian gas imports, and has taken steps to find alternative arrangements for supply, its energy ministry said in a statement. Bulgaria consumes about 3 billion cubic metres of gas per year and imports over 90 percent of it from Russia.  Previously, Bulgarian Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov had said a counterpart in Sofia could handle transactions in roubles, without giving details. (more)

Apr 28 2022

New York State Appellate Court Rules Against Democrat Gerrymandering Effort, 2022 Primary Likely Delayed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 27, 2022

New York state democrats attempted to mitigate the bloodbath coming their way in the 2022 elections by drawing a redistricting map that eliminated three republican congressional seats.   Today a New York State appeals court ruled the maps were unconstitutional efforts to gerrymander the districts and now the primary races will likely be delayed.

The 78-page ruling is available here.  The state appeals court ruled 4-3 against the democrats. The June 28, 2022, primary will likely be moved to August because the state now needs to redraw the congressional districts.

(Via MSM) – […] The New York State Court of Appeals said the three maps violated the state’s Constitution by creating political bias. The maps were “procedurally unconstitutional, and the congressional map is also substantively unconstitutional as drawn with impermissible partisan purpose,” the court said.

[…] With no more appeals and time running out, the court ordered the adoption of a neutral map by an outside expert. The court also recommended the state’s June 28 primary be moved to August.

“We are confident that, in consultation with the Board of Elections, Supreme Court can swiftly develop a schedule to facilitate an August primary election, allowing time for the adoption of new constitutional maps,” the court said.  (read more)

Apr 28 2022

The Man Who Abuses Power Daily, Decries The Abuse of Power


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 27, 2022

Joe Biden, the same authoritarian who mandated that every American worker undergo a medical procedure in order to qualify as a person who might earn a living, sits atop his high-horse and pretends that he has never abused his power.

I know Joe Biden would like to believe we do not remember the past year plus of unilateral dictatorship he carried out while hiding behind the shield of “emergency authorization,” but the American people are fully aware of the brutal reality.  WATCH (24 secs):

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Does he really think we have forgotten how he never once asked our representative government for authorization before triggering his unilateral fiats from CDC, FDA, TSA and OSHA?  The economic lockdowns, the loss of liberty, the collapse of freedom, the shutting down of any form of petition for grievance, the use and weaponization of the regulatory system, the manipulation of courts, the unilateral mask and vaccination mandates, the demands for compliance to some of the most ridiculous rules and regulations, and yes, even the lies and double standards his administration applied to the masses while they themselves ignored the rules they forced upon everyone else….  Does he really thing we have forgotten this?

Apr 28 2022

Representative Clay Higgins Questions DHS Secretary Mayorkas About Southern Border Crisis


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 27, 2022

The U.S-Mexico border is in a state of near collapse.  U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents are overwhelmed with thousands of illegal aliens crossing the border daily.  According to estimates the number of illegal aliens who crossed the border since Biden took office is somewhere between two and five million people…. and the crisis is only getting worse.

Today Louisiana Representative Clay Higgins (CD-03) asked Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Majorkas to define border failure, if that is not what we have currently underway.  WATCH:

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The painfully obvious answer is – it’s not a DHS failure because the massive influx of illegal aliens is the success of the plan.  The border crisis is a feature, not a flaw, of the Biden administration agenda.