The West’s Response to Russia Will Cause Energy Prices to Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Feb 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

On February 10, President Joe Biden stated that he would “work like the devil to bring gas prices down.” That was short-lived. By February 22, Biden announced that gas prices will continue to rise. “Defending freedom will have costs for us as well, and here at home. We need to be honest about that,” Biden stated to deflect the blame.

Biden continued: “But as we will do — but as we do this, I’m going to take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the Russian economy not ours. We’re closely monitoring energy supplies for any disruption. We’re executing a plan in coordination with major oil producing consumers and producers toward a collective investment to secure stability and global energy supplies. This will be — this will blunt gas prices. I want to limit the pain to the American people fueling at the gas pump. This is critical to me.”

It is comical to say that sanctions will only hurt Russia’s economy. Biden stated he spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and was in agreement with Scholz’s decision to suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Russia. CNN even reported the decision as an economically masochistic act, “The West showed Tuesday it was ready to target Russia’s huge energy industry — even at the risk of hurting itself — after Moscow ordered troops into parts of eastern Ukraine.” The pipeline should have been approved long ago when the worldwide demand for gas did not align with supply. Last October, Putin stated that he was ready to begin distributing gas to Europe immediately if they were willing to work with Russia. Leave it to politicians to turn a problem into a crisis.

Then there is the Keystone XL Pipeline Project that was terminated in June 2021 after President Biden revoked the permit as soon as he took office. The climate change crowd declared this a major victory, blindly ignoring the consequences. The climate change advocates have also caused fracking to become a moral issue, preventing an increase in domestic production.

Once nations are unable to purchase gas from Russia, they will turn to the Middle East and elsewhere, which will tighten global reserves. Rising energy prices will contribute to inflation, and transportation costs will rise. The West has lost control over the energy crisis in its bid to burn down the world to Build Back Better.

Russia Bans Short Selling


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia’s central bank announced that they would no longer permit short-selling Russian stocks. Once a market turns down and confidence vanishes, the only support is short-covering. Without that, you get the 90% declines, as was the case during the Great Depression in the USA. They were hunting down shorts aggressively, and nobody would play the short-side. This resulted in a steady erosion of the market value. The MOEX crashed 45% on Thursday when the central bank made the announcement. Only shorts will take the risk of buying during wartime. So there is NO BID without the short-players, which makes markets far less liquid.

Update on World War III Unfolding


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

UPDATE: While now the EU and Canada have closed their air space to Russia, and Hungary publicly states they will NOT get involved, I can report that some people I know in Kyiv have made it out to Germany. Putin does not appear to prevent civilians from leaving the country. EU states it is now sending arms to Ukraine. The White House said Sunday that China needs to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I am not sure if they noticed that China has now aligned with North Korea because of the “new situation” and North Korea resumed missile testing just today. Do we have complete blind idiots in charge of the West? Putin has NOT committed all his troops to Ukraine as he waits for Europe’s stupidity to unfold further. Nobody seems to have ever played chess other than Putin.

The Foolishness of Sanctions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I can see why you have been an adviser to governments. You said sanctions never work. Biden has come out and admitted they did not prevent anything. Who is making these decisions in governments? The Keystone cops?

REPLY: Even in the case of Iran, Erdogan was secretly laundering money for Iran selling gold into the market to allow them to circumvent sanctions. The sanctions imposed on Russia for taking Crimea are still in place. They produced nothing. It becomes a dog and pony show pretending that sanctions will be a deterrent or end something. I have NEVER seen even one instance where sanctions ever worked. They have, on the other hand, been taken as an act of war.

We have a Panic Cycle in the Russian Ruble the week of March 7th. Note the Long-Term turning point was due this week and last week was the Double Directional Change signaling that indeed the trend was shifting. Our model picked up February as a turning point in Japan with high volatility in March with a Directional Change.

Imposing sanctions and removing Russian banks from SWIFT, in addition to freezing Russian shares trading in the West, will fail to do anything. In fact, Western brokers and bankers will now avoid anything to do with Russia. Companies like Sberbank, Gazprom, and others are now on the “restricted securities” list. We are looking at diverse funds who invested in Russia are now trapped and Russia and now just void all obligations to the West.

These political morons are clueless about cross-border investments and capital flows. Biden did not bother to look but the US has the biggest investment in Russia according to the statistics released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The data clearly shows that the US was the largest investor in Russia and accounts for 8.9% of the Russian economy which is almost $40 billion.

While people speculate that there will be a massive run of Russian banks, they are also not looking at the damage removing Russia from SWIFT will mean to foreign investors. Russia now escapes all foreign liabilities.

The object of the new restrictions against Russia’s Central Bank is to limit the Kremlin’s ability to access the more than $600 billion in reserves hoping to cause a crash in the Ruble that will unleash a free fall, triggering spiraling inflation there. But Putin is smart. He can back the ruble with gold only for domestic use in effect reversing the strategy of FDR who confiscated gold domestically.

The sanctions have not been a deterrent. China and Russia have been moving to create an alternative to SWIFT which has become a political weapon. We are looking at the collapse over even SWIFT in the years ahead due to political abuse.

World War III Beginning Stages Now


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I have been warning the West should not mess with Putin. It is so obvious that the West has made the same fatal mistake as that of Rome. It has weakened its economy with COVID and it is so obsessed with trying to force Russia and China to comply with their Climate Change directives set out by the UN, that they have lost sight of the fact that there is no qualified leadership in any of the major countries and they have weakened their entire military establishment demanding vaccines or you are out.

Even during the debate between Biden and Trump, he actually admitted he would stop Fracking on Federal Land, and said he was going to end the oil industry in addition to joining the UN’s Paris accord “to force China to comply” which confirms everything I have been getting from sources that the Globalists needed to remove Trump to use American power against China and Russia. Now here we are and make no mistake about it – this is all for climate change.

If there was ever a PERFECT time for World War III – this is it.

I have been warning that if China and Russia combined, the West will be defeated. Reliable sources have confirmed that China has entered into a “friendly” relationship with North Korea for mutual benefit. North Korea has one of the largest armies since 2018 it stands at 1,469,000.00. North Korea has been also demonized by the West so they too have a grudge match that has never been settled. With rising shortages of food, the North has never been the breadbasket of Korea and that also provides an incentive to join a triumvirate against the West with Russia and China. Cyclically, North Korea could even start its aggression by January 2023 at the latest.

Additionally, Putin has just dramatically just upped the stakes ordering Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert today because of the boasting of the West and the “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. Lost in all of this is the fact that Putin has also made a direct threat to Europe that if Sweden and Finland join NATO there will be “detrimental military and political consequences.” Sweden has closed its air space to all Russian flights.

Putin is playing chess while the rest of the world was playing checkers. When America wages war, they seek to destroy all the infrastructure, take down the power grid, and destroy the water supply. US troops then move in as more of a mop-up operation. The West is judging Putin by the same way the US wages war and they are so wrong. Putin is not using that strategy of a video game for he wants to take Ukraine intact for it also has the richest land in the world for food production – hence Stalin stole all the food and killed 7 million by starvation.

Putin is NOT backing away from resistance, he is encircling it the classic way war is traditionally fought – you laid “siege” to the city by surrounding it, and starvation forces their surrender. That often takes time, but you then have the city and the people. You do not raze it to the ground and kill everyone. Anyone who has studied ancient war strategies should see what Putin is doing and the Western press is either deliberately putting out propaganda, or they are complete idiots.

Putin seeks to install a new government with minimal casualties to civilians. Every dead civilian creates a blood enemy of their survivors. But the US way means it then costs billions in aid to rebuild what they destroyed – i.e. Iraq. Putin is NOT using that strategy and the Western press is judging him by American standards of destroying everything and winning in a few days.

Putin is not seeking to destroy the Ukrainian Army. He wants to capture it and once a new government is installed, they will then become allies. This is the very strategy of Alexander the Great. He conquered the known world, but those who were once his enemy joined his army. In Babylon, he defeated Darius III but he left the infrastructure intact and he installed Persian satraps  (governors) who poured what would have been Darius’s taxes into Alexander’s coffers. This is the strategy of Putin – not to obliterate his enemy and then pour billions in to restore it. Putin has wiped out the air force and owns the skies over Ukraine. He could annihilate the country in less than 3 days, but he is not doing that to the West’s befuddlement.

Moreover, the real concern is that Putin has NOT sent in his hard-core troops. Only about 30% of the troops on the border were sent into Ukraine. The majority of the troops are there to take Europe if they are foolish enough to walk into this mess. Putin is obviously playing chess and he is very good at it while Biden has to change his diapers. Putin’s reputation until this moment has always been as a shrewd ex-KGB man. He understood the Obama game of putting a pipeline through Syria to cut off Russian gas to Europe. He moved decisively into Syria and then escalated forces there shutting down Obama’s strategy. Assad refused it and this has been the entire pretend reason why the Obama Administration wanted to invade Syria. The reason for the refusal was to protect the interests of Assad’s long-time ally, Russia, which is Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier based upon all the data.

Clearly, Obama has targeted Russia from the outset. There was a meeting between Obama and Putin at the United Nations where Putin tried to get Obama to side with Syria against ISIS. Obama rejected the proposal. So when Russian forces entered Syria on the ECM turning point to the day, it was an ominous event. Russia was not only backing the Assad regime, but it was also backing the Iranian pipeline.

However, Ukraine has also been used as a pawn against Putin just as NATO has constantly moved eastward ever closer to Russia. Kyiv has been so corrupt that few are willing to blame anyone other than Putin. Ukraine has failed as a pawn and despite promises the US would support it, it did not send military troops. More broadly, the use of Ukraine has been at the expense of the European security architecture that America spent 75 years building and maintaining. Why do you think Putin has now put his defensive nukes on standby?

Zelensky has been handing our AK47s to civilians. Zelensky is telling residents to make Molotov cocktails and firebombs to help fight back in Kyiv as Russian forces close in on the capital city. This is insane and he clearly wants to use dead civilians for dramatic footage. This is outrageous for civilians who are not trained with such weapons and would then be easily killed by professional soldiers. Putin is fully aware of what Zelensky is doing and he somehow hopes that dramatic footage will force Europe and America to send in troops.

Additionally, Zelensky has done what Sadam Husein was doing. Putting heavy weapons surrounded by civilians. This is also intended to ensure that as many civilians are killed once more to paint the Russians as evil. Putin knows this and so far he has adopted the siege strategy. The internet is NOT down in Ukraine. We have people there and I personally have friends in Kyiv.

So while the Western Press is demonizing Putun and Russians, they are indeed just playing checkers and are not opening their eyes. Just as Sparta attacked Athens and turned to the Great enemy Persia for support, Putin has the backing of China and nobody seems to be bothered by the sudden turn of China to embrace North Korea. Hello! Our press is so corrupt that they cannot see past their nose. There is something much larger in play here and they better wake up.

We are preparing a Special Report on the view of our computer with repect to war and how it is unfolding globally. We will let everyone know when it is ready next week.

Col Douglas Macgregor Has a Slightly Different Take on Russia-Ukraine Conflict


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 27, 2022 | Sundance | 373 Comments

Macgregor Makes Sense!

My spidey senses tell me that Col Douglas Macgregor will not be welcomed back on Fox News after he gave a rather different take on what is happening amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict that does not toe the common media line.  [SEGMENT HERE] Jennifer Griffin was furious.

The first presentation was during a segment with Fox Host Dan Bongino (below).   The second presentation of essentially the same analysis was with Trey Gowdy [SEGMENT HERE].  In both discussions Macgregor’s perspective reconciles the disparity between what the U.S. government, State Dept, and corporate media are saying -vs- what is visible.

Essentially, Macgregor is saying that Russia does not want to engage a civilian population and is making every effort to avoid civilian conflict in those population centers.  In part this is because Putin knows the Western approach is a propaganda war that would be fueled by what it would look like if population carnage took place. However, if Ukraine President Zelenskyy does not acquiesce to terms, Putin could easily crush those centers with artillery and rockets.  WATCH:

What Macgregor outlines would explain why these skirmishes always seem ‘off in the distance’.

The western government and media perspective is to make it seem like Volodymyr Zelenski and the rebellious civilian misfits are beating the Russian army because that frames a better story.  However, what Macgregor outlines is Putin not wanting to fuel the United Nations, NATO and State Dept narrative engineering, thus the absence of visible fighting.

The second segment with Trey Gowdy is HERE… and below:

Fox News Pentagon war seller Jennifer Griffin, aka the female version of Mark Milley, was having fits.

CNN Ukraine War Correspondent Admits Producers Scour Social Media for Content to Broadcast


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 27, 2022 | Sundance | 272 Comments

CNN ‘War Correspondent’ Clarissa Ward accidentally explained why the public is confused about what the corporate media are saying about the Ukraine war with Russia, compared to what is actually visible about the Ukraine war with Russia.

During a segment with Brian Stelter, Ms Ward explained how CNN war corresponding in Ukraine consists of talking about material provided to her by CNN production crews who sit and scour through YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and social media posts to find the input material for their stories.

Clarissa Ward didn’t mean to expose how the propaganda of modern warfare is created, but she did.

Ward was thanking the people in the background of CNN who search social media for their Ukraine content; however, in talking about what they do, she affirmed what we already knew was taking place.

People wondering why there is no visible ‘fight’ in this war, now find the baseline which Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh was talking about last week.  The State Department, intelligence community and political participants in the U.S. government are constructing the “war” against Vladimir Putin through the prism of social likeability as a cultural weapon.

When the goal is to produce content that tells the “better story,” social media becomes the battlefield.  War corresponding is reduced to using the corporate media platform to enhance the social media battlefield.  Essentially you might call this “World War Reddit.”

The CNN war correspondent doesn’t even need to be in Ukraine, except for the fact they need some form of geographical context to create the credibility.  The actual content of Ukraine material for the broadcast can just as easily be assembled in New York, California or mom’s basement in Illinois.

The social media content extracted by CNN workers, stationed anywhere, is then transmitted to the network producers who assemble the material, and a “war correspondent’ puts on a helmet and appears live on camera in Ukraine to discuss it.

This is modern journalism, aka propaganda creation, aka narrative engineering, and why there’s a lack of actual evidence for anything being attributed to the narrative surrounding the war between Ukraine and Russia.  WATCH:

It Always Starts With a Cultural Shift – The Totalitarian Left Begin Backing Toward the COVID Exits


Posted originally on the Conservative tree house on February 27, 2022 | Sundance | 561 Comments

In case you missed it, March 1st has been declared as the unofficial end date for COVID-19 as a political weapon.

Domestically, the political leftists, who weaponized science for their totalitarian control, have decided it is time to head for the exits.  We are now supposed to ignore the last two years of brutal impact they inflicted on society.  You can always spot the shift by looking at how Hollywood and pop culture are triggered by the messaging from the political crew.

Once given the nod, there’s a silent move toward the exits while everyone is distracted.  Of course, the exit strategy is always frustrating for those who have watched this play out.  The SNL segment is presented as humor, but when you recognize the inherent message, there’s nothing funny about it.

The left weaponized COVID for their political needs.  However, within this COVID fiasco there were real victims.  Many people lost incomes, small businesses were closed, families were torn apart as people were caught up in the frenzy.  All of that now positioned as a joke, as the professionally political left try to find a way to tell their tribe it’s over.

We are supposed to forget the pain they inflicted as loved ones were choking in anguish, unable to visit family in hospital, the funerals that were not permitted, the catastrophic damage to our children’s lives, and the massive ridicule deployed (with maximum snark) in their condescending attacks against anyone who did not kneel at the altar of COVID virtue signaling.  All of it…. ALL OF IT… now boiled down to a few jokes as they walk backwards trying to avoid the political fallout.

They are declaring victory, and moving on.

These are sick people.

They promise, the invisible thing that was going to kill you has now left the room.

Sunday Talks, Psaki Gives Away the Ukraine Game – Russia Is Needed As Fall Guy for Biden Energy Policy and Economic Damage


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 27, 2022 | Sundance | 369 Comments

During an ABC interview today, White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki gave away the game for the Biden Administration’s intent on exploiting the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Keep in mind, as the Biden team were getting pummeled for negative economic outcomes, massive inflation, skyrocketing energy costs and gas prices set to double, the White House worked to create an urgent defense by manufacturing the crisis.

While Joe Biden ate his pudding, the people behind the scenes told Zelenskyy and Putin that Ukraine was about to enter NATO {December 2021}.  The White House then seeded details through China knowing the intel would get back to Putin.  Russia took the bait and intervened.

The collective left (far more western leader beneficiaries on a global scale) now have a quick and strategic pivot point to go from COVID-19 as the excuse for all the economic ills, to Russia.   The Russia-Ukraine crisis transfers the cost of the Build Back Better climate change agenda from COVID-19 to Russia/Ukraine.  We can now watch COVID just disappear.

The BBB agenda, domestically known as the Green New Deal, intentionally makes energy costs skyrocket.  By creating the Ukraine crisis, gas prices specifically are no longer blamed on COVID-19 (the original fraudulent justification).  Gas prices are now rising because of Russia and the villainous Vladimir Putin.  Climate change policy outcomes are made palatable by blaming Putin.  Cue Jen Psaki, (Prompted):

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Peace Talks Possible Between Russia and Ukraine, As Magnificently Defiant Zelenskyy Stands Atop The Alamo of Kyiv Taking Selfies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 27, 2022 | Sundance | 773 Comments

The propaganda pouring out of Ukraine from the U.S. State Department and the taxpayer funded Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s) is, in a modern scale, historic.

In their collective effort to make #Ukraine the modern image of The Alamo (where the last stand to defend all mankind is taking place), the corporate media, state dept and NGO’s are utilizing their Hollywood directed #BringBackOurGirls and #KonySurrender techniques in the extreme.

Pay no attention to the absence of any war fighting actually taking place, meaning the lack of actual fighting shooting and stuff in a modern era where everyone has cell phone cameras, and instead focus your attention to the ‘story telling.’

After all, the White House was very clear that the winner of this contest to defend all humanity from the Russian villain Vladimir Putin, would depend on who could tell a “better story.”

Thus, you do not need to see shooting or actual war type stuff.  Instead, the contest to save the planet is boiled down to who can take a better selfie.

As Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh stated last week, the U.S. government has rallied the collective west to defeat Russia using the cultural weapon of social likeability.   Vladimir Putin is getting pummeled.

It’s all a grand pantomime folks.  All of it.  Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the newest Michael Avenatti.

Ukraine has been the playground for the U.S. State Dept, NGO’s, intelligence schemes and DC political grift for well over a decade.  You know it, because it has been well documented.  Yet suddenly, the same Ukraine is the modern Alamo in the battle to save all mankind. Oh, okay, and we’re supposed to forget the first stuff.

If you’re wondering, why has it taken the Russia army four days to travel 30 miles?   You must believe it is, because Ukrainians with their free Kalashnikov rifles and Molotov cocktails have beaten back the onslaught of heavily mechanized armored tank divisions.   You must believe it, because you are being told by the most trusted names in news.

If you don’t believe it… and if you think it all just seems odd as Ukrainian politicians are taking selfies amid this monumental military encounter…   well, you must be a Russian agent, or something.

Comrades, just wait until tomorrow, when Russia will bomb the baby formula factories, then perhaps you will take it seriously.  How can you not feel sympathy for the babies, the mothers, teachers, crying on the television as they tell stories about saving their children from the scourge of the artillery fire that must be heard in the ever familiar “off in the distance.”

It’s weird how no journalist will actually go to that “distant” place they all talk about.  Alas, I digress….

WASHINGTON DC – Multiple media organizations are reporting that Ukraine and Russia will hold peace talks on the border of Ukraine and Belarus. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed to Sky News that the two sides would hold the talks on the border of Ukraine and Belarus, where some of the Russian troops invading his country had been held.

Zelensky had refused to agree to an earlier request for talks in Belarus, arguing it was not neutral territory.

Sunday was the fourth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has been slowed by fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and private citizens. 

Several cities including the capitol of Kyiv have been bombarded by Russia, and there has additionally been fighting in the streets.

Sky News, referring to a statement from Zelensky’s office, said the two delegations will meet “without preconditions” near the Pripyat River. (read more)

Bottom line folks… the Russia -vs- Ukraine crisis is cover for the outcomes of Joe Biden’s energy policy, so that American voters do not attach $10/gal gasoline to his climate change agenda, and instead apportion the blame to Russia and Vladimir Putin.

Again, “never let a crisis go to waste,” and if you can’t find the crisis to use, make one.

Go Deep ]