Super Saturday Shopping


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Dec 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A shopper takes part in Black Friday sales at a Target store in Chicago, Illinois, United States, November 27, 2015. REUTERS/Jim Young

Retailers have their eyes set on Super Saturday, the last Saturday of December to shop before Christmas. Yes, consumerism is still strong enough to require a third shopping-related holiday in December after Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates 148 million consumers will be purchasing gifts this Saturday, down slightly from last year’s estimate of 150 million.

The NRF anticipates that the average consumer will spend $997.73 on holiday purchases this year. Consumer behavior has shifted this year due to supply chain crisis fears. Around 180 million Americans purchased gifts during the five-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Not to be outdone, the NRF believes sales during the week following Christmas will increase between 8.5% and 10.5% to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Sales during the overall 2021 holiday season are expected to increase 11.5% from the last holiday season. This is why around two-thirds of America’s GDP is consumer spending.

Communist Congresswoman Pressley Says Failing to Cancel College Debt Is Policy Violence


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 17, 2021 by Sundance

Among other things annoying about their collective nonsense, the communist Democrats are linguistic agitators. While known for their insufferable victimhood positions in all of their arguments, this latest example highlights just how insane and ridiculous this AOC tribe has become.

Originally, they moved from “silence is violence“, to speech they didn’t like hearing about being called violence.  Indeed, anything the leftists do not like, they find some way to equate it with violence against them.  At a certain point it all becomes silly, and the frustrated audience tells them to shut up, and stop being stupid.

However, not going to be denied the opportunity to spread the moonbat nonsense, a member of the AOC squad, Ms. Ayanna Pressley, now rises to say that if American taxpayers do not forgive the mountain of student debt (created by attending college to learn how to be a better communist), then taxpayers are being violent against her:

Anger is a very visible response from the leftists whenever their policies are rejected.  The modern political left does not view rejection as a rebuke of their ideology, instead they view rejection as a need to push harder.

From the generation of new communists, insanely narcissistic people created by parents who were jaw-droppingly coddling and overindulgent, they need to reeducate their target.  They need you to change your thinking and perspectives from incorrect thoughts they don’t agree with to correct thoughts that align with their selfish worldview.  To achieve this outcome, the only acceptable path is to push their insanity even harder.

They have learned from their emotional experiences as children that eventually every parent will relent.  There is now an entire generation who apply that experience toward their bosses, their colleagues and every interaction in their life.   Yes, if you put anyone from this generation into a position of power or influence, what you get is exactly what Pressley and the AOC tribe are doing.  Their worldview is based on a cognitive and emotional inability to contemplate their ideology is flawed.

The emotion of their views is the motive for their effort. As a result, they are incapable of changing direction.  From the perspective of the modern political left, if they were to change direction, they would be rejecting the foundation of their own personal value.  They cannot do that.  It’s not them that are wrong -ever- it’s you.

Those who do not adhere to the insane ideological goals of the far left, are viewed as the problem that must be overcome.  Their emotional attachment to ideology is why these avowed and ideological followers cannot be redeemed or coerced into reasonable positions with any logical argument.  Instead, you must be re-educated to see their worth, to value their ideology… you, the person or group who stands in their way, will always be viewed as the problem.

If you are silent to their proclaimed victim status, you are committing violence against them.

If you state a viewpoint they disagree with, you are committing violence against them.

If you do not give them what they want, or feel they need, you are committing violence against them.

They then sit around with each other in large gatherings and echo chambers discussing the validity of their ridiculous grievances.   This is all they do.  This is who they are.  This is all they know how to be.

Failing to accept the fundamental set of core beliefs within the modern political left, is a flaw on the side of those who engage in the battle for ideas.  It doesn’t matter how good your ideas and policies are, even when you deliver results to prove your accuracy, this specific victim-minded opponent will always revert back to attacking the success based on their view of your wrongthink.

Arguing with a political leftist, in the hope they can be convinced to change direction, is futile.  They are disassociated on a mental and emotional level from any semblance of a capacity to consider they may be wrong.

This is why you can never let up in the fight against them.  Even in victory, the blue-collar working class common sense approach must be relentless.  The modern left has to be destroyed on such a scale as their dangerous ideology is reduced to burning embers; however, do not trick yourself into believing it will ever be fully extinguished.

History has taught us that even when the professional political left is seemingly wiped out, enough will remain waiting for another Obama type personality to blow them gently into a state of reignition…. and the cycle will start again.

Democrats, today’s modern communists, believe in what they are doing, and they will never retreat from their doing it.   The modern political left is intent on destroying the foundation of this nation.  That is their mission, and this fight must be viewed through the urgency of a prism where we accept this is a zero-sum game.

If you are considered the enemy of the modern leftist movement, they will seek your destruction.  The only way to fight this adversary is with brutal hand-to-hand combat where you never, ever, concede an inch.

For God’s sake, if you need a reference point, 27% of them are willing to put an untested vaccine into the arms of their children -without hesitation- to protect against an illness that is non-existent.  Do you really think it’s possible to rationally debate them?

Instead, meet Obama’s “Yes we can“, or Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better“, with a much stronger and unapologetic “Fuck You, Joe Biden“….

That’s how we defeat the insane communists!

Curious Timing – Fire Breaks Out at HQ of Italian State Police on Same Day Vaccine Mandate Begins for Italian State Police


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 17, 2021 by Sundance

As Reuters reported last month {LINK}, the Italian government “extended mandatory vaccination, already in force for healthcare workers, to all school staff, police and the military, beginning from Dec. 15.”  The enforcement mechanism comes from the Arma dei Carabinieri, the state police agency that falls under the military and carries out all domestic policing duties.

On the exact same day the Carabinieri vaccine mandate was scheduled to begin, this happens:

(Italy) – Alarm at the Salvo d’Acquisto carabinieri barracks in Tor di Quinto in Rome: at 12.50 a fire broke out in the military citadel.  The very high flames broke out in the building of the Lazio Regiment, started from a room used as a guesthouse but then covered two floors of a single building. (read more)

Italian suspicious cat, remains, well, suspicious

What is the Motive


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

While everyone argues over vaccines and who created COVID, all of these debates and questions dominate 99% of the online agenda. There is something SERIOUSLY mining and that simply the end goal and what is the motive. Some try to claim that there are dark forces hidden behind the images of Gates and Schwab. Some claim that Schwab is just a marketing man. What they fail to understand is the MOTIVE and why are politicians jumping at the chance to lock people down?

If any fund manager ran his business the way that all governments, they would be thrown in prison for 20 year+. They continually borrow today to pay the last bondholder. There is no intention whatsoever of ever paying off the debts. The end game is that this scheme is coming to an end. The negative interest rates in Europe have wiped out the bondholders, pension funds, and kept governments on life-support since 2014. There is ABSOLUTELY no way out of this mess other than what I submitted in meetings and when I saw they were more inclined to take Schwab’s ideas, I did the Solution Conference in 2015.

The MOTIVE is to default on all government debts and to hide their failure, Schwab is presenting this as you will own nothing and be happy because governments will erase all debt. Pension will be replaced by Guaranteed Basic Income.

So while everyone argues over COVID, vaccines, COVID passports, and lockdowns, the real plot is never discussed. This is what 2032 is all about. It is the end of an era that began with Keynesian Economics and the Great Depression. Part of Schwab’s 2030 agenda is to end democracy they call “populism” for we are too stupid to know what is best for us, when it is all about them retaining power.

The 2022 elections will be rigged around the world. Australia will probably go to the election in March, or between February and May. In France, the first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on April 10, 2022. Should no candidate win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on April 24, 2022. The next Hungarian parliamentary elections will be held in April or May 2022 and this will be certainly a vote on COVID. The next Italian general election is due to be held in Italy no later than June 1, 2023. In Britain, the next general election will be held on May 2, 2024, in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. These are just some key elections. Of course, the US mid-term election will be in November that is showing to be a Panic Cycle.

With so much on the line for these people pushing their agenda, their greatest risk is in the elections. The need to control that process to achieve their end goal.

Stralsund Police Placed on Santa’s Naughty List


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A video has gone viral of German police officers arresting Santa Claus at a Christmas market in Stralsund. At the same time, around 65 people had gathered at the market to peacefully protest Germany’s strict COVID restrictions. Santa refused to wear a mask or provide identification, leading to police forcefully arresting him in front of children.

The police issued the following statement (translated): “Among those present, there was also a person disguised as Santa Claus. Police were also surprised to see that Santa Claus was breaking the law and was also expressing his opinion through a poster. The 47-year-old from Stralsund was clearly a player in the rally. He was not hired as Santa Claus in the Christmas market in this city.”

Santa was released later in the evening. Nothing spreads holiday cheer like aggressively arresting a man dressed at Santa Claus at a Christmas village in front of families with children. I think it is safe to say these police officers were put on the naughty list. Germany has been attempting to phase out coal, but given this behavior, Scholz should consider increasing production for the holiday season.

Build Back Better Inflation Driving Bill Not Likely to Get Senate Support Before Christmas Break, Wounded Communists Shift Effort to Federal Election Takeover


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 135 Comments

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin appears to be done with the badgering and pressure over the Build Back Better legislation.

Politico reports the discussions between Senator Manchin and the White House are at a stalemate, with the White House saying “things are going poorly.”  Meanwhile, the New York Post is reporting that Manchin finally exploded on communist stenographers who have been continually hounding him for the past two months.

Senator Joe Manchin on Wednesday angrily shouted at reporters to go away — telling one, “You are bulls–t!” and “I’m done!” after he was peppered with questions about his reluctance to support President Biden’s mammoth social spending bill.

“I’m not negotiating with any of you, OK?” the West Virginia Democrat said as reporters followed him around Capitol Hill. 

Eventually Manchin added, raising his voice: “You guys, let me go. This is bulls–t. You are bulls–t! OK? I’m done! I’m done! God Almighty.” (link)

The communist guerillas never relent, they just modify their attack angles to keep pushing forward.

With the Build Back Broke bill unlikely to have enough support prior to the Christmas recess, the communists are trying to shift the focus to the federal takeover of elections.  However, on the election bill Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema will not support removing the Senate filibuster.

(Politico) Kyrsten Sinema supports the elections reform bill that Democrats are considering a year-end push to pass. She doesn’t support a shortcut around the filibuster to get it done.

The Arizona moderate is making clear that she intends to keep protecting the Senate’s 60-vote requirement on most legislation and she isn’t ready to entertain changing rules to pass sweeping elections or voting legislation with a simple majority. Her Democratic colleagues have been discussing those revisions as they weigh dropping their focus on President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill and pivoting to voting rights, though it’s not clear that avenue will be any more successful. (read more)

One of the issues working against the interests of the communists is the lack of support for Dear Leader.  A new media poll from CNN released today shows that 66 percent of the American electorate do not trust Joe Biden. [pdf Question 4]  It’s not only that American voters don’t like him and do not think he is competent to do the job, a full two-thirds of the American electorate do not trust him.

With no trust, no support and a large number of the American electorate recognizing that Joe Biden is only making things worse.  Well, there’s no pressure on Senator Joe Manchin or Senator Kyrsten Sinema to grab a seat on the sinking ship.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Presser Should Alarm Everyone on Main Street


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 112 Comments

To me, this is just jaw-dropping.  The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made statements today akin to saying the emperor is wearing a beautiful coat.  I can share examples, but to really encapsulate the issues, it’s actually easier to start by sharing a chart he presented when discussing inflation.

Do you notice anything missing in this chart?   Look at it carefully.

If you look at it and say: “hey, where’s the actual 2021 data he is talking about“, give yourself a cookie.

The guy is talking about the issue of 2021 inflation and expressing his empathy that inflation is running “far ahead” of the federal reserve projections.  Yet, the graphic Powell uses doesn’t even show the 2021 rate of inflation that he is expressing his concern about.

Why wouldn’t the graphic show the rate of inflation for 2021?   Well, take one look at what the graph would look like, and you realize immediately why he would not want to put it in front of people.

This is in essence what the graphic would look like if Powell included the 2021 inflation he is concerned about:

The 6.8% inflation rate is just about where the dot in the “j” of the word projection would be located.   That’s where we are currently.

Now, do you really think that scale of inflation is going to drop in a dramatic inverted V formation to where the Fed projects it will end up next year (the little red line in the thing that looks like a battery)?  Pro Tip: It won’t.

The chairman even said he anticipates “strong inflation throughout next year” into 2023.

Worse still, are his remarks leading into the segment where he talks about inflation:

(1) Powell claims the Fed “can see no signs of weakening consumer demand“.   Who in the Sam-hell is he talking to, and how can they not see a drop in consumer demand?

(2) Perhaps worse, the Fed Chairman says almost nothing about the largest ever drop in productivity last quarter (-5%), and instead is only slightly worried that the drop in productivity is larger than the increase in wages (+3%).   Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot.  Does this guy not have anyone on Main Street who talks to him?  If I’m an employer paying three percent more and generating five percent less, what do you think I’m about to do?

Watch his remarks from 03:23 to 05:13 of the video below (prompted), and you will see what I mean:

The key takeaway is this….

…. Take care of your family, this is only going to get worse.

San Francisco Mayor Says a Law Abiding Peaceful City Will “Make a Lot of People Uncomfortable”, But They Gotta Do It Because Elections


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 154 Comments

Apparently living amid a city that is fraught with crime is comfortable for a lot of people in San Francisco, at least according to one of the most leftist Mayors in the nation.  You know things are bad when the Mayor of San Francisco, who ran on a platform to remove cops from the streets, starts shouting about the “bull**it that has destroyed the city”, and proclaiming that rampant lawlessness needs to stop.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed delivered a statement yesterday that is the exact opposition of her social program message from the past few years.  Apparently, the rise in random gangs of looters destroying the city and organized retail theft has become problematic for the politicians who hold power over the city.

Quite a remarkable shift in position, however, the transparency of motive is clear.  Breed’s faux anger and conveniently new frustration over the crime surge in the city were on full display at her noon news conference where she changed the rules of the safari park.   WATCH:

Democrats are worried about how their anti-police position has brought the criminal chickens home to roost.  Politically, Democrats -writ large- are trying to distance themselves from the crime their policies have created.  National polls show voters are correctly attributing the rise in crime to Democrats.  Thus, they need to change direction quickly.

SAN FRANCISCO – After months of viral videos showing deteriorating conditions on the streets of San Francisco, including smash-and-grab robberies and open-air drug use, the city’s mayor has moved to implement a new public safety approach to curb criminal behavior. Her move could signal a recognition by the Democratic establishment that crime may prove a potent issue in upcoming elections.

Speaking at City Hall on Tuesday, San Francisco Mayor London Breed lamented “all the bullshit that has destroyed our city,” including thefts at high-end stores like Louis Vuitton, rampant vehicle break-ins and a seeming flood of the potent drug fentanyl. All of it has been captured on video, making for regular Fox News segments and rising consternation among Democrats who see crime as a potential weakness in next year’s midterm elections. (read more)

That last bullet point is a little funny, no?…

I mean what good were the city CCTV cameras if the police were not allowed to use them?

Were the cameras installed so the city could just randomly document criminals running amok for posterity?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Introduces Anti-WOKE Legislation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 89 Comments

WILDWOOD, Fla. – Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced the Stop the Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees (W.O.K.E.) Act, a legislative proposal that will give businesses, employees, children and families tools to fight back against woke indoctrination.

The Stop W.O.K.E. Act will be the strongest legislation of its kind in the nation and will take on both corporate wokeness and Critical Race Theory. Today’s proposal builds on actions Governor DeSantis has already taken to ban Critical Race Theory and the New York Times’ 1619 project in Florida’s schools. For more information about the Stop W.O.K.E. Act, click here.

“In Florida we are taking a stand against the state-sanctioned racism that is critical race theory,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “We won’t allow Florida tax dollars to be spent teaching kids to hate our country or to hate each other. We also have a responsibility to ensure that parents have the means to vindicate their rights when it comes to enforcing state standards. Finally, we must protect Florida workers against the hostile work environment that is created when large corporations force their employees to endure CRT-inspired ‘training’ and indoctrination.” (read more)

Lower Than Expected November Retail Sales Shows Inflation Impact and Reduction in Consumer Spending


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 77 Comments

The Commerce Department November retail sales data was release today [DATA HERE] – [DETAIL pdf HERE].  The top line issue is a shocking drop in retail sales for November in key categories that align with previous discussion of inflation spending priorities for all U.S. consumers.

Before getting to the data, one point is critical to remember.  The commerce department sales figures are based on dollars spent. This point is important, because the items being purchased have inflation within them.  When prices are higher due to inflation, sales figures should be higher due to higher prices.  Ex. If there is an 8% increase in retail price, but only a 4% increase in retail sales, that means less stuff is being sold.  [Less units sold at a higher price gives the illusion of an increase in sales.]

Despite the start of the traditional holiday sales and shopping period, the total sales growth in November was 0.3% over October [Column A].  Factoring in inflation during the same month to month comparison at 0.9%, you can tell that overall in November there was a drop in units sold across the total of retail sales outlets.

A drop in sales at a time when holiday shopping should be taking place is concerning.  However, the sales reality aligns with the employment data last week showing a drop of 20,000 workers in the retail sector for November.  Put them together, and the picture shows retailers did not need employees, because consumers are not spending.

If we look deeper into the November sales figures, we can see that a contraction in discretionary spending is the primary issue. Electronics (-4.6%), Department Stores (-5.4%) and even online sales at ZERO.  We can also see a direct correlation in comparative inflation impact within the sales data for November 2021 when compared to November 2020 [Column B].

You will note that column B is an almost identical data set to the rate of inflation in those categories.  Example: the November 2021 sales data is showing an increase in gasoline station sales of 52.3% over November 2020.  That’s because gas prices have gone up 58.1% over the same time period.  The increase in sales at gas stations is because inflation is driving sales.   [Remember, these comparisons are in dollars being spent.]

A comparison to 2020 for sales dollars in 2021 is useless when you look at the rate of inflation in those categories.

However, to see electronics, department stores, general merchandise and even online sales (Nonstore retailers) showing declines in sales over October, tells us that consumer spending is being squeezed and contracting.

In the electronic sector, sales dropped 4.6 percent versus October.   However, the issue is larger.  With inflation within the electronics sector around 8 percent (BLS Table-2),  a contraction in overall sales of items that cost more means a lot less electronic units are being sold.

(Bloomberg) “U.S. retail sales rose by less than forecast in November, suggesting that consumers are tempering purchases against a backdrop of the fastest inflation in decades” (more)

Similarly, vehicles overall (new and used) are 20% higher in price this year {BLS DATA} and only achieved a net 13% increase in consumer sales for Nov 2021 -vs- Nov 2020.   Far fewer vehicle units are selling.

This data should not be surprising to anyone who has been paying attention.  Consumers overall, specifically the middle class and working class, are being squeezed hard by food, fuel, housing and energy inflation, and are cutting back their spending this Christmas.   The media are blaming the soft sales on COVID and supply chains again, but that’s not really the issue.

WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in November, likely payback after surging in the prior month as Americans started their holiday shopping early to avoid empty shelves.

[…] The modest retail sales gain did not change views that the economy was regaining steam after a slowdown in the third quarter that was triggered by the COVID-19 Delta variant and rampant shortages.

[…] Retail sales rose 0.3% last month after surging 1.8% in October. Sales have now risen for four straight months. They increased 18.2% year-on-year in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.8%. Estimates ranged from as low as being unchanged to as high as a 1.5% increase.

[…] The moderation in retail sales, which are mostly goods, was in part due to shortages and higher prices. Receipts at auto dealerships dipped 0.1% after accelerating 1.7% in October. Automobiles remain scarce because of a global semiconductor shortage. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 4.6%.

But sales at service stations increased 1.7%, lifted by higher gasoline prices. Receipts at food and beverage stores rose 1.3%, also reflecting rising inflation.

“Food and gas are forcing hard choices for consumers in other areas this holiday season,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Consumers are no longer the price-takers they were when they were flush with cash from stimulus checks.”  (read more)