The Phillips Curve No Longer Works


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Thank you for coming to Frankfurt. Nobody gets that big of an audience here ever. What you illustrate with the three faces of inflation means that the Philips Curve no longer functions. Was this something like Kondratieff’s Wave that it was based upon a period that is outdated?

Thank you once again. I hope you do more of these type events.

BC

ANSWER: Yes. The Phillips curve is a graph describing the relationship between wage changes and price level changes on the one hand and the unemployment rate on the other.  The basic assumption was a fixed exchange rate so there was no issue of currency inflation. The Phillips curve was published in 1958 by the English statistician and economist Alban William Housego Phillips in the magazine Economica. It has been modified several times since. Paul A. Samuelson and Robert Merton Solow in 1960 expanded the Phillips curve. They created a link between unemployment and the change in the inflation rate but this was again under Bretton Woods and a fixed exchange rate system. The Phillips curve  assumptions are simply irrelevant today and yet central banks have continued to try to manipulate society based upon these antiquated theories. Every assumption they make to manage the economy is dead wrong right down to the Quantity of Money Theory

The Month-End Closing for July 2017


The dollar correction for this Year from Political Hell is still in motion, but there is no major change in trend that is at hand. In the British pound, the Monthly Bullish Reversal stands at 13485 level on cash.  In the Euro, the Monthly Bullish remains up at 12885 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 12570. In the Canadian dollar futures the Monthly Bullish stands at 88360 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 80040.

In gold, the number has not change and is still 1362. We have a Minor Monthly Bullish at 1358. In Silver the Monthly Bullish remains at 2310 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 2024.

In the Dow, support lies at 2099400 and only a monthly closing beneath that would signal a short-term correction is at hand of any importance. Meanwhile, our key resistance level remains intact at the 23000 level. Despite the reactionary rally in the Euro, the European share markets are in a bit of trouble. The high in the DAX took place on June 20th, 2017 at 1295154. Here we have already elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals and we look to 1185000 as the next critical weekly level for any support. On the monthly level, the DAX did an Outside Reversal to the Downside on a monthly level leaving the May target as indeed the highest monthly closing. This warns that the critical support lies at 1147975 on a monthly closing basis.

This Year from Political Hell has actually been extended probably into February 2018. The Italian elections should have come in during this September. However, if they took place then, the MPs who were elected would not be eligible for their pensions for the timing would be too short. Therefore, the elections will most likely be extended into February. It will be Italy that could still break with the Euro. The Italians do not share the same concerns about preventing European war as is the case in France and Germany. The Italians have been on both sides whereas the fight has been three times in a row between Germany and France. The Italians are more along the lines of what are you doing for me lately. The Greeks may have just given up all hope of breaking away right now and will have to suffer even more before they rise up. What may bring Greece to its knees is actually the Refugee Crisis. Where Greece was the popular spot for vacations for the Northern Europeans, because of the refugees the hot spot has shifted to Portugal. Greece needs tourism and so does Italy. In both cases, the refugees are deterring tourism which both countries need desperately.

The Monetary Crisis still seems ready for its turn, but most likely following the first quarter 2018. We intend to update the Monetary Crisis Cycle report in the months ahead.

Britain to Raise Retirement Age to 68 to Try to Save Pensions


 

The Work and pensions secretary David Gauke have revealed that parliament proposes to raise the pension age to 68. The pension crisis that is brewing throughout Western culture reflects the insanity of lowering interest rates to try to “stimulate” the economy. This policy has set the stage for the next great crisis brewing, which will expose the postwar Socialism is just a total failure.

The rise in government on average to about 40% of GDP means that this is consuming the wealth of every nation and suppressing the economic growth. This is forcing people to work longer to survive and hence they do not retire quickly into the sunset holding on to jobs that then in turn cause higher unemployment in the next two generations. There is not much we can do about this because politicians will never act to prevent a crisis, they perfect to act only when a crisis emerges. Consequently, the Pension Crisis is simply unavoidable.

History Repeats in School Attacks


The recent attacks in schools that have people calling for the banning of guns that are portrayed as always the worst in history, we clearly do not grasp that such events are not isolated and they are not limited to only guns. The Bath Consolidated School in Michigan remains as the biggest attack upon children after school board member Andrew Kehoe used dynamite to blow it up on May 18, 1927.

There are similar events carried out for various reasons such as Columbine High School, Virginia Tech and Sandy Hook Elementary, yet all tend to have a common theme of some mental health issue. History repeats because given the same set of circumstances. the likelihood of the same or similar outcome will result. In this case, Andrew Kehoe had his farm repossessed, could not meet his payments, and seems to have sought vengeance for losing everything.

Martin Armstrong ✹ Why The Next Major Economic Collapse Is Rapidly Approaching? (MUST LISTEN)- upda


Published on Jul 17, 2017

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Martin Armstrong 2017 Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse


Published on May 4, 2017

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Alex Bennett

China – A Different Central Bank Altogether


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I believe you once said at your conference that you were surprised when you were asked to fly to Beijing to meet with the central bank because you were not an academic, but a trader. I think you said when you got there they were traders working in the bank, not academics. Did I recall that story correctly?

ANSWER: Yes. The central bank had sent staff to work on trading desks around the world in Tokyo, New York, and London. They then returned to run the bank. When the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis hit, I was very surprised that they asked me to come and not some academic. When I got there, I discovered that they were traders and we spoke the same language.

When I returned to the States, people I knew in the Fed and in Treasury called to ask me my opinion after these meetings with the Chinese government. I responded: It was great. They only hired people with experience!

I understand so many people think China does whatever I say. I think the real story is they may take what I say, but they see it through the eyes of a trader rather than an academic. Hence, they adopt it quickly but never blindly. They have a good nose for trends themselves.

Does CNN Really Have the Right to Freedom of Speech?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your article on CNN imposing a fiduciary duty upon the directors as a public corporation. I tried to search if corporations truly have constitutional rights. It seems that there is a conflict on that subject and they may not have such rights at the end of the day. Would you care to explain this matter?

Thank you for your financial and legal expertise.

KE

ANSWER: You are correct. There is a tremendous conflict of laws when it comes to constitutional rights and corporations. My own case of contempt illustrated that conflict. I was never actually held in contempt P E R S O N A L L Y. I the individual was never held for 7 years. It was only the corporate officer since the Supreme Court deemed in 1988 that the 5th Amendment Privilege does not apply to corporate officers. Braswell v United States 487 US 99 (1988)  held “The custodian of corporate records may not resist a subpoena for such records on the ground that the act of production will incriminate him in violation of the Fifth Amendment.”

Then you have the decision in Citizens United, where the Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling allowed unlimited corporate and union spending on political issues under the First Amendment. Corporations have the right to enter into contracts with other parties and to sue or be sued in court in the same manner as individuals. Yet there is a great deal of conflict of laws regarding various rights. Chief Justice Roberts wrote in Riley v. California (1914)  that Corporations cannot be arrested and do not have “bodies” to be searched under the Fourth Amendment.

Arthur Andersen used to be one of the big five accounting firms. The government criminally charged it and put the firm out of business back in 2002 when companies were not too big to prosecute.  In 2002, the firm voluntarily surrendered its licenses to practice as Certified Public Accountants in the United States after being found guilty of criminal charges relating to the firm’s handling of the auditing of Enron, the Texas energy corporation, which had filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Arthur Anderson agreed to admit it committed a crime by shredding Enron-related documents. Yet a corporation cannot be jailed. So how can it be criminally prosecuted?

The criminal charge faced by Andersen was obstruction of justice under 18 U.S.C., Section 1512(b), which easily could have applied to Hillary’s lawyers, but Comey gave them immunity while the Justice Department put 85,000 out of work by criminally prosecuting the firm. In order to violate that section, the defendant must “corruptly persuade” someone to destroy documents. The defendant also has to intend that the documents won’t be available for legal proceedings. Former Arthur Andersen partner David Duncan pleaded guilty to obstruction as an individual.

A corporations is a legal construct that dates back to ancient Rome. It cannot commit a physical act such as obstruction of justice. So, how did Congress get past this problem when it wants to punish a company as a whole and destroy it? The government simply attributes the acts and intentions of the company’s employees to the company itself. This approach was sanctioned by the the Supreme Court which first endorsed the idea back in the 1909 case of New York Central and Hudson River Railroad Co. v. United States. When government wants to get around something, they just play with the words and reasoning. There the Supreme Court ruled that since corporations were already liable in civil cases for their employees’ bad conduct, then why no extend that rule to the criminal law despite the fact that the corporation cannot be imprisoned?

In 1886 the Supreme Court accepted the argument that corporations were people and that “their money was protected by the due process clause of the 14th Amendment.” Another example is that in Nike v. Kasky, Nike asserted a free speech ‘right to lie’, while in Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Hobby Lobby asserted a freedom of religion ‘right’ to exempt itself from aspects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

There are just too many inconsistencies. Either a corporation has constitutional rights fully, or it should have none. You can’t be just little be pregnant as they say.

The End of Diversity? Prepare Yourself Accordingly.


A good discussion on the current situation we are in politics.

Google’s Antitrust Case in Europe


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is Google really violating European antitrust laws to warrant such a huge fine or is this really a trade war?

KQ

ANSWER: It’s a trade war. Granted, the EU hit Google with a record-breaking fine of €2.4 billion ($2.7 billion, £2.1 billion) by European regulators who accused the California-based technology giant of abusing its dominant position and promoting its own shopping service in its search results over those of its competitors.

The European Union Commission claims this is the culmination of a multiyear investigation into Google’s business practices dating back nearly a decade. This in itself proves this is nonsense for the past decade has witnessed a dramatic change in how products are being sold. Amazon has been growing tremendously in sales putting many stores out of business like Sears.

Things are changing. The beginning of this whole antitrust violation took place with the Sherman Antitrust Act passed in the USA back in 1890. The theory was you had all these small railroad companies and they were merging into large regional railroads. The politicians called this a monopoly that put people out of jobs as companies merged and eliminate duplication.

Once again we have dramatic changes to the retail industry. The politicians behind this nonsense of fining Google are just (1) greedy and (2) ignorant. Amazon is already starting to create showrooms where you can go at look at products and then it will be delivered to you in days. This is the way retail is changing. Here is a search I entered for a Sony Laptop. Yes at the top it come up with Google shopping and it says sponsored. However, it shows competitive brands. At the bottom of the page is Amazon. Yes they are competing against Amazon. Does that warrant a huge fine or are politicians just trying to come up with creative means to get more money because they are dead broke?