Tag Archives: Central Planning

Aug 29 2017

New Proposed Regs You Must Declare if you have more than $10k in Crypto Currencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Aug 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

According to the new draft law proposal, all persons who enter the US will have to declare their holdings in crypto currencies with a value over 10,000 dollars. This is the case with larger quantities of cash or precious metals. Naturally, they are calling this money laundering and possible funding of terrorism. It’s really about taxes. 

I have been warning that this would be the next step in government regulation. They are hunting money everywhere. There is no possible way they will allow crypto currencies to beat them. The stories that they cannot stop them are really nonsense. Income taxes are not illegal if you cannot pay, but if you fail to tell them what you made, that is criminal. Applying this same legal approach to crypto currencies is inevitable.

This will apply to Americans returning from overseas. If you fail to report it, they can jail you and confiscate everything you have. It will be the failure to declare.

The only way to be off the grid is still tangible assets and that will be non-real estate limiting this to simply movable assets. Even cash they can simply cancel as was the case in India. They are out for everything for we are the problem not their mismanagement from their perspective. This is also why they are in an all out war against Trump.  They will not tolerate anyone who is not a career politician regardless of what they say.

Aug 29 2017

Trump is He His Own Worst Enemy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Aug 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You seem to have given up hope on Trump getting his agenda through Congress. Do you agree that the Trump presidency is a failure?

BV

ANSWER: There is no question that the powers that be are out to stop Trump at all costs. They are indeed winning. But Trump is his own worst enemy. The press know all they have to do is ask him a loaded controversial question that criticizes him and he responds in kind. If he were smart, he would play it like Hillary – lie to the press and the public and privately assure everyone that’s not her real agenda.

Trump is too honest in that regard and that hands the press all the ammunition to turn every single event into a controversy. I watched the Trump press conference and he said the Wall is needed to stop the drug trade. When CNN ran it on the nightly news, they cut his statement ending it with security, implying the racist issue rather than drugs.

On the Charlottesville  incident, clearly this demonstrates he does not understand how to deal with the press. Yes, there is the issue of both extreme sides rising.  There is no question that the dominant issue was State’s Rights. However, the white supremacists are not preaching that – they are preaching hate of blacks and Jews. The extreme left are Communists following Marx. These two sides are both responsible without question. Nevertheless, the political cartoons reflect the perception that all the evil lies on one side. Trump has to understand that the event in focus must be addressed in isolation. He should have immediately condemned the white supremacists for they openly say Trump is too liberal for them. He should have confined his remarks to just the one side and then address the left when they try to dig up graves or will no doubt protest the Columbus Day parade on October 9th in New York City.

CNN and others will fan the flames and they are creating the divide within America. Eventually, we will see the USA break up probably after 2032. Trump was elected because of the rising tension. He is a symptom, not the cause. Nevertheless, he is his own worst enemy aiding this divide.

I seriously question if Trump will get his agenda through. Even if he resigned and he was succeeded by the VP, the agenda will not be passed and therein lies the problem for the Republican Party betraying the people once again.

Aug 28 2017

Harvey Flood Impact Continues – Peak Water Anticipated Wednesday and Thursday…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Ongoing record rainfall from TS Harvey continues to bring record flooding to East Texas.  Almost 25 inches of rain has fallen on the region following Hurricane Harvey’s landfall last weekend.  As the rain continues, weather forecasters now anticipating peak water on Wednesday or Thursday as Harvey’s rain begins impacting Southwest Louisiana. [Reuters Picture Gallery Here]  Texas is only about half-way through the anticipated impact timeline.

Thousands of rescue missions have taken place, most by ordinary citizens using private boats and vessels to retrieve stranded residents in the area.  12,000 National Guard troops are working 24/7, and volunteers from several states have arrived to supplement local, state and federal search and rescue efforts.

TEXAS – A new record daily max rainfall of 16.07 inches was set at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston on Sunday, breaking the old record of 8.32 inches from 1945, according to National Weather Service (NWS) measurements. The airport was closed in the wake of Harvey.

In the last two days, 24.44 inches of rain has fallen in Houston, the NWS reported on Monday. The rainfall from Harvey has already made this August the wettest month on record for Houston.

ABC News meteorologists expect up to 50 inches of rain to accumulate in the southeastern part of Texas by Wednesday as a result of the storm.

Harvey has so far affected about a quarter of the Texas population, or 6.8 million people in 18 counties, according to The Associated Press.

At least three people are confirmed dead in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, a number that is expected to rise.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has performed more than 2,000 multi-person rescues in the Houston-Galveston area as of Monday morning. There have been more than 250 survivors from air rescues alone.

The USCG has 20 helicopters and 9 Flood Punt Teams conducting search and rescue operations in the Houston area.

The Houston Fire Department received 5,500 calls for help in the past 24-hour period, fire officials said Monday.

The Houston Police Department has completed about 2,000 rescue missions since Harvey began, Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said today on “Good Morning America.” (read more).

Aug 28 2017

President Trump Reverses Obama Executive Order Blocking Military Surplus From Police Purchase…


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Today President Trump has issued an executive order revoking a previous Executive Order #13688, put in place by President Obama, which blocked local and state law enforcement from purchasing military surplus gear.  Effective with today’s order local law enforcement will have access to U.S. military equipment.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions cited two studies which concluded that the use of military-style equipment can have positive effects, reducing citizen complaints and assaults on officers.

EXECUTIVE ORDER – By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Revocation of Executive Order 13688. Executive Order 13688 of January 16, 2015 (Federal Support for Local Law Enforcement Equipment Acquisition), is hereby revoked.

Sec. 2. Revocation of Recommendations Issued Pursuant to Executive Order 13688. The recommendations issued pursuant to Executive Order 13688 do not reflect the policy of the executive branch. All executive departments and agencies are directed, as of the date of this order and consistent with Federal law, to cease implementing those recommendations and, if necessary, to take prompt action to rescind any rules, regulations, guidelines, or policies implementing them.

Sec. 3. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP – THE WHITE HOUSE, August 28, 2017.

Overall, the militarization of our local and state police forces presents a complex dynamic. On one hand we want our law enforcement to have the most effective tools needed to deal with threats and public safety. On the other hand seeing an MRAP vehicle in the local police parade on the 4th of July is not something to be cheering about.

This can be a slippery slope if not well managed, and local people need to be engaged with their public officials to express valid opinions and concerns.

Aug 28 2017

North Korea Launches Another Missile – Attempts Escalation By Crossing Northern Japan…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Beijing (China) is attempting to “trigger” President Trump’s internal neo-con and militaristic opposition. Stay frosty, avoid emotional reports demanding military engagement, and remain steady with a high altitude perspective.

Multiple reports now confirming that North Korea has conducted a missile test. The flight path escalates the issues by crossing over part of Northern Japan. In essence, Beijing China just threw an elbow at President Trump. [The likely “Why” follows breaking report]

TOKYO (Reuters) – North Korea fired a missile that passed over northern Japan early on Tuesday, the Japanese government said. The government’s J-Alert warning system advised people in the area to take precautions, but public broadcaster NHK said there was no sign of damage.

The Japanese military did not attempt to shoot down the missile, which passed over Japanese territory around 6:06 a.m. local time (2106 GMT). (Reuters)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking to reporters in Tokyo after the launch, said the missile appeared to have passed over airspace and that the government was urgently collecting intelligence on the incident and doing everything to ensure the safety of its citizens, according to remarks broadcast on NHK, Bloomberg News reports.

Beijing China controls Kim Jong-un. Period.

Looking at the big picture, there’s no single event being responded to by this missile launch; rather, what we are seeing is a reaction to: A.) the cumulative effect of very strategic recent geopolitical maneuvering by President Trump (Venezuela, Pakistan, India etc); and, B.) the words spoken by the administration -including Trump, tillerson and Haley- that are removing China’s panda face.

Remember, China doesn’t draw a distinction between Peace and War.  It’s yin/yang. All actions toward China’s larger objectives are viewed as natural to achieve victory.  War or Peace it makes no difference to them; they don’t accept mutually beneficial outcomes. Either they win, or they lose.  All action to achieve victory is part of same world view.

When you accept this approach, you being to understand what happens when a nation built upon such outlooks feels squeezed. They fight back harder. To them it’s a zero-sum battle.

China’s objective is conquest.  China’s tool for conquest is economics.  President Trump entire geopolitical strategy of using economics in a similar way is an existential threat to China’s endeavor.  Communist Beijing calls the proverbial shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue.  Venezuela now needs more money.  China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2.  China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal.  Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria.  Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.

♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India.  President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals.  The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India.  That’s a big play.

♦Squeeze #4.  President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property.  This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

♦Squeeze #5.  President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA.  One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.

♦Squeeze #6.  President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #7.  President Trump has formed an economic and national security aliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan.   It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired today over the Northern part of Japan.  Quite simply, Beijing told him to.

Add all of this up, and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical strategy toward China.  The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of all of “it”, coming.

Just like Trump’s economic council (a bunch of globalists and Wall Streeters) thinking they were pulling POTUS Trump away from “America First”, only to realize he was simply giving them that impression so that he could advance his agenda….

By the time they realized, it was too late.  Well, so too did China not quite realize the scope and totality of how well thought out and strategic President Trump’s geopolitical economic doctrine really is.

You know why?  Because President Trump doesn’t tell anyone what the final product is, they only know the piece of the puzzle they carry. The picture, the big objective, is inside his head and he doesn’t share it with anyone.  That’s what living amid the Apex Predators in brutal rabid-dog-eat-rabid-dog Manhattan teaches you.  Oh, and he ain’t flinching or moderating his will one bit in carrying it out and putting it all together.

What happens when you surprise Beijing China with a massive awakening that suddenly has them peering toward a horizon showing potential economic defeat?

Well, for that answer we go full circle and remember how China perceives any action as a natural evolution of struggle, so long as it takes them toward victory…

Stay steady.  Avoid the chaff and countermeasures.  It’s all about the economics and the tectonic financial plates he’s shifting.

Aug 28 2017

Next Target for North Korea Sept 11th/12th


Armstrong Economics Blog/North Korea

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Our models seem to be right on target for the escalation of military threats from North Korea. We gave a out two targets for the opening of  window for a conflict on our war model to watch are August 12/13, 2017 and September 11/12, 2017. We must be on guard for this is the prime period where a confrontation could emerge.

This time he fired a missile over Japan. True, he could hit South Korea and Japan before they could launch any counter-measure. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the “most serious and grave” threat to the country. There is no question he is doing this to show strength to retain control. There are always people within who would assassinate him if he appeared weak.

We expect tensions to rise into the next target September 11/12th

Aug 28 2017

Is the Stock Market Really Overvalued?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

All we have been hearing since 2011 is how the stock market is going to crash and then there will be hyperinflation and all sorts of strange relationships that never materialize. They simply focus on the level of the stock market in nominal terms without adjusting it for inflation or showing how it has performed relative to the rest of the economy. Here is a chart of the stock market expressed as the total value of shares traded annually as a percent of GDP. Sorry, this illustrates that the retail market is not in crash mode just yet and it is still nowhere near the overbought levels of 2007.

This chart also reflects the crisis we have in liquidity. The more government tries to also regulate banks, they have been withdrawing from proprietary trading and we find the trading volume has been shrinking.

Government manipulates the statistics to always try to reflect that everything is OK and they are doing a fantastic job. Here is the ECB’s assessment of liquidity trying to pretend it’s back to normal. Real liquidity is HALF that of 2008 yet the ECB’s the Financial Market Liquidity Index is a complete fraud for it simply measures the spread between bid and ask and not the volume traded. The Index combines eight individual “liquidity” measures based upon their definition. Three of them cover bid-ask spreads: (1) on the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP exchange rates; (2) on the 50 individual stocks which form the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index and; (3) on EONIA one month and 3 month swap rates. Three others are return-to-turnover ratios calculated for: (4) the 50 individual stocks which make up the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index; (5)

Honestly, the bid ask spread can narrow and let a panic start and that will quickly vanish as market-makers withdraw. There is far less depth to the markets today than before back in 2007. A return on investment also means nothing with respect to liquidity.

So as long as we have analysts relying upon government statistics without thinking about their construction, this is really the blind trying to lead the blind. What a joke!

Aug 28 2017

North v South & Revising History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Robert E. Lee, before the outbreak of the war, was overwhelmingly regarded as the finest military mind in the U.S. army. Winfield Scott offered him command of all Union forces at the outbreak of hostilities. But he chose allegiance to his state of Virginia, rather than the Federal government. He didn’t fight for slavery. He freed his slaves. He was fighting for states’ rights. He was an honorable God fearing noble man. Stonewall Jackson was an extremely religious man who waged war with a passion, but also taught Sunday School to slaves. Lee and Jackson must be viewed in the context of the 19th century rather than being judged by the standards of the 21st century.

The vast majority of Confederate soldiers who did the fighting and dying during that war didn’t own slaves. They weren’t fighting to maintain slavery. They were fighting because a foreign army had invaded their land. In 1860 this nation was more an amalgamation of states than a centralized government. States still had a tremendous amount of power and leeway to run their states the way they chose. The ever increasing power of a central authority occurred during and after the Civil War. The South were not the bad guys. Their leaders, generals and soldiers were not evil. They were Americans.

The revisionist history now being peddled by the left wing media and their non-thinking acolytes lacks a factual basis, historical context and a true understanding of history. The Civil War was the climax of decades of tension between the North and the South over states’ rights, economic policies, slavery, and a myriad of other complex issues. Examined within the context of generational theory, it was a Fourth Turning that was unavoidable. It was a crucial important event in U.S. history. It wasn’t the shameful episode portrayed by the brain dead faux journalists babbling on CNN and MSNBC

….

RJB

REPLY: You are correct. Robert E. Lee wrote to the New York Times to correct what was written and he said before the war he would free his slaves within five years. Indeed, even George Washington owned slaves. You are correct that slavery was only one issue. The majority of the issue was considered to be States Rights, which was supposed to be the cornerstone of the union. Regardless of the issue be it slavery to abortion or marijuana, the issue of States Rights has been a key debate. Does the Federal government have the right to impose a law upon all States?

In District of Columbia v. Heller (2008), the United States Supreme Court ruled that gun ownership is an individual right under the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution, and the District of Columbia could not completely ban gun ownership by law-abiding private citizens.  In Martin v. Hunter’s Lessee, 14 U.S. 304 (1816), and Cohens v. Virginia, 19 U.S. 264 (1821), the Supreme Court held that the Supremacy Clause and the judicial power granted in Article III give the Supreme Court the ultimate power to review state court decisions involving issues arising under the Constitution and laws.

The Supremacy Clause has effectively nullified State’s Rights. Justice Scalia is famous for writing a letter on the subject of seceding from the union. He wrote:  “I cannot imagine that such a question could ever reach the Supreme Court.” Scalia added: “To begin with, the answer is clear. If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.”

The overwhelming number of confederate soldiers were not slave owners. They were indeed fighting for States Rights, not to own slaves they did not have. The “rich” plantation owners had the slaves – not the individual Confederate soldier. As always, everything is reduced to a single cause and effect when the issues were far more complicated. The capital is Washington , DC, only because Thomas Jefferson would not support Hamilton’s idea of a national debt unless the capitol was moves to the center of the country from New York City. It was always a contention between North and South underlying the current events, which is brewing once again.

This is the seed of the Civil War I have been warning we can move into. These extremists are now trying top stop Columbus Day parades, blow up Mt. Rushmore, and they are trying to dig up graves of Confederate soldiers to chop up their bodies. This is going completely insane. CNN and others are fueling this discontent and supporting this type of revisionist activity exactly as ISIS and the Taliban do in the Middle East – destroy history because they disagree with the past.

Aug 27 2017

House Speaker Paul Ryan Stands Against Arpaio Pardon…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 26, 2017 by

Weasels gotta weasel.  Jeff Flake, John McCain and now House Speaker Paul Ryan all stand in opposition to President Trump pardoning Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

More fuel for the Big Ugly:

Washington (CNN) – House Speaker Paul Ryan disagrees with President Donald Trump’s decision Friday to pardon Sheriff Joe Arpaio, his spokesman said Saturday.

“The Speaker does not agree with this decision,” spokesman Doug Andres said in a statement. “Law enforcement officials have a special responsibility to respect the rights of everyone in the United States. We should not allow anyone to believe that responsibility is diminished by this pardon.” (read more)

Aug 27 2017

Ulterior Motives – Ford Offers Cash for Clunkers Program in U.K…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 26, 2017 by

An interesting press release from Ford Motor Co. operations in the U.K. as they announce financial incentives (additional $2,500) to trade in old vehicles for newer “cleaner” emission vehicles in the U.K.

(Via Fox Business) Ford (F) is offering car buyers in Britain a 2,000-pound ($2,570) incentive to trade in older vehicles for newer, less polluting models.

The offer announced Tuesday is available to new car buyers who trade in vehicles registered before Dec. 31, 2009. The cars will then be taken off the road and scrapped. (read more)

Pay attention to these types of stories within the auto sector.  Watch for these types of “incentives” to cross the Atlantic.  The incentives described here are wrapped around a point of cleaner emissions, ie. “climate friendly” etc.  However, as we have shared the financial branch of the auto sector is in trouble; these incentives appear to be a marketing ploy.

The auto sector, in this example Ford Motor Credit, need to keep turning out new financial products (leases and loans) to cover the deficits of previously issued financial products and the financial gaps within soon to be received via massive lease returns.

There’s an influx of over-leased vehicles coming into the secondary market.  Each of those vehicles returns with a residual financial loss attached (lower value than anticipated).  If the underwriting auto financial system doesn’t quickly turn up additional capital they will not be able to offset the looming losses.

It will be interesting to watch it play out.  The auto-finance system is trying to keep the finance bubble inflated.  Unfortunately the economic odds are not favorable toward their goals.