Posted originally on Feb 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition with AfD. He has not got the memo as you say that the people are shifting.
Thank you for Socrates. This is the only forecaster that is not biased.
Hans
REPLY: Yes, Friedrich Merz’s conservative opposition leader, what would not be even a headline in the United States. When you have so many parties fighting, you get very ineffective governments. That many Italians have told me keeps politicians arguing against each other and leaving the people alone. Indeed, as our computer projected, the Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, putting in the strongest showing for an alleged “far-right party” that had been against wholesale immigration since World War II.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his left-leaning Social Democrats. He said it was “a bitter election result.” Perhaps he should listen to the people rather than to Kaus Schwab. Marxism does not work. It has destroyed every economy it has ever been deployed because it is outright against human nature.
Merz vowed to move quickly to put together a coalition government but has vowed not to make a coalition with AfD all because the press has labeled them far-right, asking to be Nazis. Any coalition Merz created without AfD will only doom Germany to a continuation of the never-ending economic stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy thanks to Russian sanctions and the stupid net-zero climate change policies. Merz had pushed hard in recent weeks for a stricter approach, but with opposition to NATO against peace with Russia in order to remain relevant, will Merz fall in line with the EU war objectives?
Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier after the U.S. Therein lies the problem. Scholtz promised Zelensky he would be his biggest supporter. Ukraine only takes. I never give up anything. The Ukraine government is the most corrupt government runs it in the world, and they are like a merchant who takes your money and declares all sales are final and have no returns.
Based on exit polls and partial counting, the projections put support for Merz’s Union bloc came in at around 28.5% and the anti-immigration AfD at about 20.5% — roughly double its result from 2021. Scholz’s Social Democrats collapsed to just over 16%, which was an all-time historic low even under the 20.5% from 2017. The Greens came in at an appalling just over 12%.
Merz made a huge mistake because of the press and dismissed the idea that voters wanted a coalition with AfD. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said. Mertz has ignored the vote and he is just doing as directed by the EU and NATO. This does not speak well for Germany’s’s changing directions.
I do not see Mertz changing Germany’s economic direction. He must reject the EU and NATO and listen to the German people.
Posted originally on Feb 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The German elections are tomorrow, and the polls are touting the failed government of Schultz as the winner. Germany will hold a snap national election on Sunday, February 23, after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition. Currently, the CDU/CSU leads in our polling according to the LEFT-controlled German Press with an aggregate of 9 points over the AfD. They always pretend that the LEFT is somehow centered and that whatever we earn really belongs to the state, and they decide how much we are allowed to retain. The Swiss numbered accounts really took place because Hitler made it illegal to have an account outside the country. Capital had fled because the SPD government confiscated 10% of everyone’s bank accounts and handed them a bond in December 1922, which led to hyperinflation. People got whatever wealth they had out of Germany after that trick.
After Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, the press, which had labeled the AfD the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), gained 3.7 points. The SPD, the current leaders in the national parliament since the average person votes for labels only, has lost 12.3 points since the last federal election and is currently in third place. Germany has no centrist parties other than the AfD, which has stood against migration and war. Scholz’s pretend center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Covid had a significant impact in Germany. Even our staff there fled the country and moved to our Dubai office over mandatory vaccines for children. The AfD first entered Germany’s national parliament eight years ago on the back of discontent with the arrival of large numbers of migrants thanks to Merkel flooding Europe with no public vote nor any EU-wide concensus. It was all about her image, and she undermined Europe as a whole. So now the press calls anyone against migration the far-right. European politicians live in denial. BREXIT took place because the British did not want this flood of immigrants who had no intention of blending into European culture but demanded their own culture dominate. Parts in Sweden saw them declaring Shia Law prevailed – not European. But disagree with the leftists who REFUSE to acknowledge any mistake, and you are a far-right Nazi.
The Afd party has proven that this discontent over the mass flood of non-Christian immigrants, where some have even burned churches, has tapped into common sense. The LEFT press has covered up the rape of girls in Europe by the migrants. As in the USA, the press saw no problem with transgender men competing in women’s sports, setting all the records. Germany’s move away from fossil fuels, restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and support for Ukraine’s orchestrated war against Russia and the prospects of World War III are somehow all far-right. The status quo in politics will be the downfall and destruction of Europe. The Greens have supported war against Russia to end their fossil fuel production. Even the World Socialist website has stated that the “Greens are among the most aggressive warmongers. ” So, risk nuclear war to save the planet? The failure of the AfD to win a majority will doom Germany to World War III.
Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke, and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls. Yet the real problem is the audacity of the EU to overturn the Romanian election and say they might do the same if the AfD wins. Europe is turning not just against free speech but very authoritarian, and it is the LEFT that has become the war party.
Our model has already elected two Yearly sell signals on the German Bunds. The current government is not just pro-war; it is undermining its own economy. The German election has shrunk by 3% thanks to the Green policy and the sanctions it imposed on Russia, undermining its industrial complex and resulting in rising unemployment and protests in the auto industry. Since COVID, the economic growth of the German economy has been steadily declining.
Posted originally on Feb 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Britain permitted their borders to be invaded without a shot fired. The taxpayer must take on the responsibility of these open border policies that has led to increased crimes, toppled budgets, and an ever-changing society. The latest news from Downing Street is that the Labour Party is looking to increase spending on illegal migrants by 30% or £47 million per year to £61 million.
The Labour Party claims that they are committed to reducing the asylum backlog, end hotel use and increase returns.” A good portion of the increased funding will go toward legal aid to help illegal migrants bypass the system. As a reminder, there are at LEAST 1.2 million undocumented migrants living in the UK, but we should expect the true figure to be much higher. The government admits they lost track long ago. Around 70% of the unvetted individuals who show up at the borders are granted entry.
Asylum seekers are entitled to FREE healthcare from the National Health Service (NHS). “You may be able to get housing and money to support you and your family while you’re waiting to find out if you’ll be given asylum,” the National Asylum Support Service (NASS) promotes on its website. The NASS will pay for housing and free education for all migrants, even those who have been DENIED asylum.
The government does not want to admit to the mass crime wave sweeping the nation as these people fail to integrate into society. As of March 2024, 12% of the UK’s prison population were foreign nationals. Foreign nationals have a higher rate of imprisonment than citizens, with 18.2 inmates per 10,000 migrants compared to 14 per 10,000 citizens.
Many had hoped the nation would back away from European policies after Brexit, but the people voted for a party that has the same ideals as Brussels. “Every illegal migrant that crosses the English Channel now costs you the taxpayer £41,000. That is an increase of over 140% since 2019,” Nigel Farage stated in October 2024. Farage has come under fire for advocating for a freeze on non-essential migration. He has noted that the UK would need to build one new dwelling every two minutes to keep up with the demand for housing, largely due to the mass influx of migrants. The NHS has experienced longer wait lists than before as the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
Muhammad has been the most popular boy baby name in the UK in recent years. The UK has lost its identity and is no longer a Christian nation. Pew Research Center believes that Muslim women will have more children than Christian women by 2035, and Islam could become the most followed religion in the world. Build Back Better nations are becoming unrecognizable as the very essence of their cultures and traditions are challenged.
When will the madness end? Each year, the government demands that citizens pay more for illegal migrants. The Labour Party has completely undermined Britain’s economic stability with its socialist agenda. And now they also want to send troops on the ground in Ukraine? The persistent economic downturn is inevitable.
Posted originally on Feb 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is willing to send young Brits to die in the war against Russia. Readers on this blog realize that this is a war AGAINST RUSSIA with nearly the entirety of the West backing Moscow into a corner. Brits said loud and clear that they did not want to be part of the European Union or a one Europe government, but now they must die to protect the continent from a nonexistent threat.
“I feel very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm’s way. But any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent and the security of this country,” Starmer said in an op-ed for Telegraph.
Merely arranging peace discussions has been a nightmare. Zelensky said he would not accept the outcome if he was not present. Europe wants to be present, but Russia would NEVER trust any EU nation to negotiate a peace deal after it was deceived through the fake Minsk Agreements. Putin does not see Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine since he has prevented the people from holding an election. Everything is an utter disaster, but numerous world leaders believe they need to send troops to Ukraine to help preserve “peace.”
Starmer said he is prepared to spend $4 billion to protect Ukraine in the next five years into 2030. “But it also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary,” Starmer went on to say.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been eager to send troops off to Ukraine, as has Germany, Estonia, and Lithuania. NATO member nations are ready for the REAL war to begin. They will have their troops or “peacekeepers” positioned when the time is right to strike. NATO has no grounds to invade Russia, nor does it have the backing of NATO’s piggy bank, the United States. Hence why European leaders want to send their men and women to the battlefield before any such “peace” talks can begin.
Posted originally on Feb 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. ARmstrong, You have warned that your model will reach another turning point on May 15th. You have also said that Trump has no time for Zelensky or European leaders who want war. Is there anything you can elaborate on at this time? Have you advised that Europe and Zelensky should be excluded from any negotiations? I have been told by a nephew who works in the office of the president ————— that your reports are printed out and read.
PVB
ANSWER: Just because someone reads my reports does not mean they agree. I subscribe to the NYT, Washington Post, and even the Economist because I need to know what the opposition says. If the heads of Europe agreed with what I said, they would stop their BS. That is not the case. I am just the hated enemy. Many government officials take our reports and even attend our World Economic Conferences. Again, that does not mean they do as we would advise. Some I speak with seem to keep asking if somehow I changed my mind when the forecasts are NOT my personal opinion.
Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference called Europe out for what it is. It is now out in the open that they rigged the Romanian elections and dare to claim they will do the same if the AfD wins. What is taking place from sources in Germany is that the AfD is now seen as not some conspiracy theory but legitimate after Vance’s speech. Looking closely, you will see that Vance did not receive any respect. You will see the military leaders there, and nobody applauded. They want war. My sources in Germany say that commentators are already saying that F the USA and Europe now have to send in troops to Ukraine, and other sources are stating that there is serious consideration of forming a European army for war with Russia. Zelensky is on the edge of his dream to invade and destroy every Russian on the face of the earth. Our May 15th target may involve this breach with the USA, and Europe is already saying they will not follow whatever Trump does.
My sources in Europe are saying that they now MUST send an army into Ukraine and call them “Peace Keepers,” but this will be the start of World War III. Zelensky is outright saying that the USA has no business interfering in European affairs.
Let’s be honest here—the Minsk 2 Accords were negotiated by Germany and France back in 2015. Merkel publicly stated that they NEVER intended to honor those agreements. Europe has been discredited and has lost any authority to sit at any table to deal with Russia. Why should they be trusted after what they pulled off to start this war? Only Trump has the authority to negotiate. Zelensky is a worthless puppet who does NOT represent the Ukrainian people and should be dragged out of his office as a traitor to his own people and put on trial as a war criminal.
I spoke directly with RFK, and he even asked me how to solve the Ukraine War. He did not like what I said that the Blinkin, Garland, and Victoria Nuland all were Jewish and had roots in that region, and all three claimed that their families were persecuted by Russians. He felt that statement was anti-Semitic, which was something people had accused him of, along with everything else. Not only have I had many Jewish friends and staff over the years, but I even had two Jewish uncles, one on each side of my father and mother, and I have some Jewish cousins. I did feel that position was unwarranted. My point was how did three people, regardless if they were Jewish or not, weasel their way into the Biden Administration that has personal grievances with Russia? They should not have been there in the first place. Because of that, I no longer speak with RFK, Jr., but I know where he stands morally in the war.
Europe’s bad faith in the Minsk Agreement negotiations has morally disqualified it from any negotiating table. Putin even tried to explain to Zelensky when he came to power the importance of the Minsk Agreement. This pretend leader of Ukraine, who sold his country out for a handful of silver, knew what was on the table and refused to honor that accord. Why should Zelensky be allowed to even clean the dishes at such a meeting? If I were Putin, I would not agree to attend any negotiation if it were with Europe or Zelensky. They take their propaganda orders from the Neocons running Europe via NATO.
The Estonian politician Kaja Kallas, who is now the Vice-President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who assumed office on December 1st, 2024, has outright stated that Ukraine will resist any peace deal. Europe will turn its back on the United States. Kallas is just another European who wants to conquer Russia and listens to NATO that they can conquer Russia in less than a week. If Russia is weak, then why negotiate peace?
Europe will be destroyed this time, and the Neocons are pulling the strings of the European leaders. The press still loves to quote Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law, the Institute for the Study of War, which should be the Neocon Club for the Promotion of War, always promoting Russia is weak and will not honor any peace deal, so let’s invade and carve up all the $75 trillion in assets.
I have warned that our computer has projected that Ukraine will no longer exist. I have never seen our computer go flat-line in a country as it has in Ukraine. Zelensky is scheming to expand the war. He is a NeoNazi and hid his Jewish background until AFTER he became president.
Because of the seriousness of Europe turning its back on the USA at the instigation of the Neocons and NATO, I will do a special report on this break of the alliance between the USA and Europe that the Neocons and NATO are festering. All I can say is I pray that Trump keeps our troops the hell out of Europe and lets them fend for themselves since they do not want peace. EXIT NATO now and stop ALL funding of Ukraine NOW! Zelensky is destroying not just Ukraine but is pushing Europe into self-destruction.
The EU is making its decision right now, which looks terrible. The European Union is collapsing, and to deflect the fiscal mismanagement and coming Sovereign Debt Crisis, it needs World War III. The EU is already scheming to start a war with Russia and reject any peace deal Trump strikes. Zelensky is telling Europe to F the USA, and Trump has no business interfering in Europe or Ukraine. I previously warned Zelensky is the equivalent of the anti-Christ here to destroy all of Europe and start World War III.
Posted originally on Feb 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-chief at the Economist began her rant: “Well, the world changed yesterday.” The anti-Americanism is percolating to a boil. She continued: “Ukraine’s future, European security and transatlantic relations were all thrown into the air by a torrent of announcements and attacks from the new administration.”
This refusal by Europe to seek peace has given new meaning to our computer, which has been warning about war and has projected a Panic Cycle in the Euro for 2026. Smart money is moving out of Europe, and that even amounts to the gold supply in London moving to New York, strangely as it did for World Wars I and II. This old hatred of Russia and their thirst to conquer it for its wealth linger and seem unrelenting.
I cannot express the conversations I have had, and it certainly appears that the entrenched anti-democratic political establishment denies the European people even to vote for who is the head of Europe or any of these people making decisions that are all pointing to war. Kaja Kallas, who is now the Vice-President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is NOT elected by the European people yet has pronounced that any peace deal Trump hammer out with Putin will be ignored by the EU. Does anyone ask the European people if they want to go to war with Russia and risk their way of life, all for a territorial grab by Ukraine?
Zanny Minton Beddoes continued: “J.D. Vance , used his Munich address to deliver a blistering critique of European democracy, excoriating what he saw as unwarranted constraints on free speech, the failure to address mass migration and misguided attempts to marginalise populist parties. In effect, he backed the far-right Alternative for Deutschland, a week before the German election. I was sitting in the hall watching him speak, and the shock was astonishing. “Putin could have given that speech,” someone near me pointed out.”
She added: this“Trump quake may be the catalyst Europe needs to take greater responsibility for its own security. That security requires a credibly defended and Westward-focused Ukraine. And it means much more investment in defence. Even in Munich everyone understood spending needed to rise a lot, and fast. “We got the message,” said Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.”
When FDR went to Boston and wanted to send troops to Europe, the people said no way! In Boston, they said that he expected the Irish to go defend the English after what they did to Ireland. Congress rejected a Declaration of War. It took FDR scheming to provoke Japan to attack Pearl Harbor, and that was the only way to get the US involved in World War II. I fear now that the Neocons control Europe and the European press, they will start this war and then try to invoke Article 5 to force Trump in, but if he stands his ground, I will not put it beyond them to try to assassinate Trump and even Vance to fulfill their dream of World War III.
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