Tag Archives: David Pristash

Jan 20 2017

NASA Finally Admits It’s Going to Get Colder


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Solar Activity 2012

DustBowl-2NASA has actually admitted that there may be a link between the solar climate and the earth climate. “[In] recent years, researchers have considered the possibility that the sun plays a role in global warming. After all, the sun is the main source of heat for our planet,” Nasa confirmed. Despite the constant stories of how recent years have been the hottest, historically, NASA has estimated that four of the 10 hottest years in the U.S. were actually during the 1930s, with 1934 the hottest of all. This was the Dust Bowl; the combination of vast dust storms created by drought and hot weather.

CDIAC

The branch of research looking at the ice core samples to document climate for thousands of years has established the major solar cycle of about 300 years. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), which has the ice core data back 800,000 years, is being shut down as of September 2017 (800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)).

800000 carbon

The data clearly establishes that there has always been a cycle to CO2 long before man’s industrial age. This is data government wants to hide. As along as they can pretend CO2 has never risen in the past before 1950, then they can tax the air and pretend it’s to prevent climate change. Moreover, while we can clean the air with regulation as we have done, under global warming, they allow “credits” to pollute as long as you pay the government. It is the ultimate scam where they get to tax pollution and people cheer rather than clean up anything.

NASA has reported: “Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now.  Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years.  Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. (Note: Penn and Livingston were not participants at the NRC workshop.)

If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link…”

Additionally, the pretense of global warming prevents us from preparing for a sharp decline in cold weather that will be dangerous to society to say the least. This winter is colder than last year and last year was colder than the previous. It has snowed in Japan down to Athens. Even Corsica where winter highs are typically in the mid-50s, lows around 40, saw snow. We need to pay attention to Climate Change but stop blaming man. Something far more significant is developing and handing academics $100 billion to prove global warming is an absolute joke.

Civil Work Force 1900-1980

The Dust Bowl wiped out agriculture and sent unemployment to 25% during the Great Depression. Climate Change forced Americans off the farm and into skilled labor. Agriculture accounted for 70% in 1850 of all employment. We MUST stop this nonsense and begin an unbiased look at the changes and what are the ramifications going forward. This 1922 post in the Monthly Weather Review warned of a warming trend back then, but it only reflected one cycle move. It got much warming into the 1930s (source NOAA.GOV).

1922 Global Warming

Jan 19 2017

Inflation Moving Higher Thanks to Dollar


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Jan 19, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation

Prices in the US are picking up strongly and support the Fed’s arguments for raising interest rates further. The rate of inflation rose by 2.1% in December, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is the highest increase since two and a half years. Some are suggesting this is due to higher gasoline prices and rents in particular caused the buoyancy. After all, the November rate was still 1.7%. The Fed has been targeting two percent. The Fed raised the key interest rate in December to 0.5 to 0.75%, and took three further steps upward for 2017.

With consumer confidence at record highs, that means consumers will spend confidently. This is the real issue behind the trend, which is polar opposite to Europe and Japan. Nevertheless, the rising trend in U.S. interest rates points to support for the dollar. The higher the dollar, the cheaper the imports. This will play at odds against the Trump policies.

Trump’s promise of bringing jobs home will run into a brick wall. There is nobody in Washington who seems to even understand trade, no less have any coherent police objectives. The stronger the dollar, the cheap the imports and that will lead to raising tariffs all because they do not understand their own statistics.

When the world set up the IMF, World Bank, and Bretton Woods, currencies were FIXED. It then made sense that if you tracked the amount of purchases and sales in dollars, that would translate into buying or selling more goods internationally. There was nobody at the dock counting the number of BMWs or Toyota entering the country. Now that currencies float since 1971, that accounting system does not work. Since the low in the US Dollar Index established during March 2008 at 71.800, this closed 2016 at 102.390. That means the dollar rose 42% since 2008. The Total balance of trade for the US improved only by 29% (US Balance of Trade). We must understand currency because the statistics only measure the amount of money moving NOT actual goods.

Jan 18 2017

Rogoff: An Elitist Who Has No Respect for the People


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Jan 18, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Rogoff-Kenneth-2

Kenneth Rogoff is a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Harvard University. Rogoff calls critics of negative interest rates “ignorant” despite the fact that negative interest rates have been used since 2008 without any success. He had the audacity to say that people should not look at their short-term personal losses, but rather look at the long-term vision of the central banks. He is such an elitist. I cannot find words appropriate to describe how this academic, who has zero experience in the real world, is incapable of comprehending that his Marxist style intervention is creating the next crisis.

1933 London Economic Conference

Yes, negative interest rates lower deficits. But who will buy the negative debt besides central banks? Why borrow money at all and compete against the private sector? Interest rates are negative to punish savers for saving. He wants them to spend their money. Fine – stop government borrowing altogether and just print what is needed for the expense of government. Stop this elitist Marxist concept that people like Rogoff can play the role of emperor and manipulate society to do whatever they believe is appropriate.

Just before his death in 1946, John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) told Henry Clay, a professor of Social Economics and adviser to the Bank of England, that he hoped that Adam Smith’s invisible hand would help Britain out of its economic hole. “I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.”

Checkmate

Economists such as Rogoff are still basking in the ideas of Karl Marx that government CAN and SHOULD manipulate society to achieve the public policy dreams of those in power. Rogoff is not willing to even think about what he has done to the pension system and how we are looking at states like Illinois becoming broke.

In California, less than four years have passed since it fought to achieve a balanced budget by raising taxes to the highest level in the nation. Politicians cannot manage the economy and negative interest rates are destroying pensions. There is no long-term gain, for Rogoff cannot imagine the next step. The central banks are trapped and can NEVER resell what they have bought under Quantitative Easing. We are rapidly approaching the point of no return or NO BID. That is when government tries to sell its debt to pay off the last chunk and there is NO BID. Oops! Checkmat

Jan 17 2017

Capitalism v Socialism – Good Perspective of the Difference


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted Jan 17, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Smith-Marx

COMMENT: Martin, A story I received: A guy looked at my Porsche the other day and said I wonder how many people could have been fed for the money that sports car cost. I replied I am not sure, it fed a lot of families in Bowling Green, Kentucky who built it, it fed the people who make the tires, it fed the people who made the components that went into it, it fed the people in the copper mine who mined the copper for the wires, it fed people in Decatur IL, at Caterpillar who make the trucks that haul the copper ore. It fed the trucking people who hauled it from the plant to the dealer and fed the people working at the dealership and their families. BUT,… I have to admit, I guess I really don’t know how many people it fed.

That is the difference between capitalism and welfare mentality. When you buy something, you put money in people’s pockets, and give them dignity for their skills. When you give someone something for nothing, you rob them of their dignity and self worth. Capitalism is freely giving your money in exchange for something of value. Socialism is taking your money against your will and shoving something down your throat that you never asked for.

JS

REPLY: This is a very good example of the difference between Capitalism and Socialism. Hillary said during the campaign that Trump was worth a few billion – “Think of what we could do with that money.” They only do look at the wealth and not at the contribution to the economy and society. You can look at Henry Ford and say yes – another rich bastard. How many jobs did he create inventing the assembly line? The difference is jobs compared to just entitlements for existing.

I had an old friend from high school call me when I was around 40. He called to ask me for a job. I ask; “Frank. What have you been doing?” He told me he never worked. He has his plane, car, and boat. When we grew up, his mother own the luncheonette all the kids would go to for lunch and after school. She was a widow and spoiled Frank. She never made him get a job and just bought him whatever he wanted. When his mother died, the money stopped. When he called me and said he never worked, I was shocked. I said I did not have a job for him. He was the classic example of socialism.

Jan 16 2017

Gold Bullion v Coins


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Jan 16, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

20-bullion

QUESTION: Marty; Do you still see 2017 as the end in the decline in gold or 2018? Also, I think I now understand that coins are better than bullion for confiscation purposes. Right?

ANSWER: We are starting to run out of time. We elected a minor Monthly Bullish of 1142 at the end of December, so that has given us the bounce. The benchmarks come into play in 2018, but they could be the first high rather than a low and that would confirm a change in trend. The 2015 closing is the lowest, and that would be a three-year reaction from the highest closing of 2015. Markets never act randomly. The failure of 2016 to produce the lowest closing was for a reason. It was not a fluke.

Yes, coins are better than bullion for they have some historical value. Their historical value could be an excuse to prevent confiscation if government simply declares that “gold is for criminals,” as they are trying to do with cash. I believe Trump would not go along with that move, but keep in mind that the left is the most violent of all. They pretend to be tolerant, but they are only tolerant if you agree with them. They have no problem assassinating anyone else.

The left has painted Trump as some sort of Nazi racist. They fail to understand that “Mexican” is not a race any more than “American,” just as “Muslim” is not a race any more than “Christian.” They mix up their slogans and accusations to get people chanting this nonsense because they are too stupid to think on their own. I would keep in mind that these people will try to assassinate Trump, for in their mind the rich have to be destroyed. They are very dangerous people.

We will be issuing the 2017 Gold Report soon

Jan 15 2017

Japan in Deep Freeze


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Japan Snow Jan 2017

Temperatures in Japan have plunged to record levels so far this winter in many regions on Sunday. There has been very heavy snowfall continuing to hit areas particularly along the Sea of Japan coast. The city of Aomori was buried in 2.56 meters of snow. The temperature fell in Iwate prefecture to minus 16.5°C establishing the new record low. Even downtown Tokyo recorded minus 2.3°C, while Nagoya recorded a minus 3.6°C . Osaka, on the West coast, posted a minus 0.6°C.

VALLEY-FORGE winter 1777-1778

The crash in the energy output of the Sun is far more dramatic than most expected. Let us hope we are not going below the lows of the 18th century. Out of approximately 12,000 soldiers who camped at Valley Forge in Pennsylvania during the winter of 1777 and 1778, about 2000 died.

Napoleon Retreat

Napoleon’s march upon Russia with his Grande Armée that was a very large force, numbering 680,000 soldiers. Napoleon entered Moscow were puzzled, there was no delegation to meet him since the Russians had evacuated the city. The popular number of survivors for his retreat was 22,000. But about 100,000 were probably taken prisoner.

That was the last time the energy output of the sun crashed.

Jan 15 2017

Worse Ice Storm in 10 Years Hits USA – Deep Freeze of 2017


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

2017 Ice Storm

What could be the worst ice storm in 10 years began Friday in the central U.S., as forecasters warned it will unload freezing rain on a 1,000-mile swath from the central Plains to the mid-Atlantic over the weekend.

Athens Snow

It has snowed in Tokyo and as far south as Athens. The winter of 2017 is a deep freeze and winter is not over yet. Such weather changes historically have also reduced food supplies. If we stop this global warming nonsense and do real forecasting, then we should be following the advice of Joseph to the Pharaoh. You might want to start keeping a supply of canned goods and freezing meat as we move forward into the years ahead. It might come in handy

Jan 15 2017

Europe Plunges into Deep Freeze


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin, Im a regular reader of your blog and I agree with you that the Ice Age is upon us. I fell on this video of ice on the Danube and would like to share with you. Even here in Singapore we can feel that something is going with the climate and it is not global warming.

Thanks for your regular post and look forward meeting in Singapore if you appear to come here.

L from Singapore.

REPLY: Scientists in both Russia and China are warning of an Ice Age. The real scientists in Europe and America are yelling this too, but the press preaches about global warming because the government uses it for taxes. Too much money at stake to say, “Sorry, we got this one wrong!”

Temperatures in Russia have plummeted, dropping to even -80 degrees Fahrenheit. This is very serious. The winters will keep getting colder and this is not good for economic growth.

We are overdue for the flipping of the poles. The poles reverse on the Sun every 11 years. On Earth, that is about 720,000 years. So there is no recorded history to document what has happened. Perhaps that is the 2032 event since the Minoan Bronze Age was sent into a Dark Age with the eruption of Thera. Geologists can tell you where the poles have been since rock is magnetized to the North Pole when it is formed. When volcanoes erupt, we can tell where the poles have been historically. Yet, there is no human record of what impact it has had. We do know that animals have been frozen with plants still in their mouths. It would appear to be very abrupt (see Maya Report). Most likely, this climate change has attributed to the migration of humans around the globe.

Europe is already experiencing a very cold winter now in 2017. Unfortunately, this is the real trend and not global warming. The reason I am so against the global warming crowd is that they put forth this proposition that man is causing this change and that they can reverse the trend if they tax everyone. My point is that a lot of people will die, as historically has always happened with such events. If you know what is REALLY happening, then perhaps you can take steps to deal with this real change in climate that no tax will prevent. I moved to Florida — so I follow our own model.

Jan 15 2017

What About Collectibles?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Collectibles

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

SilverCoins

QUESTION: Hi Marty! I would like to have your thinking about one important thing: the exit of this mess. I was in the last two WEC with my friend Mark and enjoy them a lot and we will be on the next one for sure.The two months that follow the last one in November 2016, I really connect all the dots for the first time even if I read you since 2008. So, I realize what we face to 2032,95 and after. The actual private wave of 51,6 is going to push money flow to the privates assets and end the confidence in government. This wave is the last one of the 309,6 years cycle that will end socialism. If we put in perspective that this 309,6 cycle is the last one of the mega cycle of the 1857,6 years (6 x 309,6), we know without question that what is coming to 2032,95 and after, will be epic and horrible time for the world. If you add the war cycle and the maunder minimum cycle to that, it’s become even worst. I Know that the private assets are suppose to improve in value to 2032,95. I know that the government will do whatever he can to tax us to death and in some cases, confiscate our assets.

So, even if I know all that, I feel trap. With the increase in interest rate, the debt bubble, the increase of taxes on houses thank to the fund pension crisis plus the real estate cycle that go down until 2033, I am sure that real estate is not the good place to protect our money. Physical gold and cash will be probably be chased by gouvernement. The blue chips are a good choice only if your broker or your bank stay alive during this crisis. Like you see, we are trapped.

So my question is, what do you think about the rare collection items, like old coins, old sports cards, or other smalls things collection that have a big value and can be move easily to an other country, even by plane. Thank so much for what you do for people! You help me a lot to open my eyes and see the world like he is. I will always grateful for that.

See you in november at the WEC!

Thanks,

GL

 

China Cowry Shell Evolution

ANSWER: Collecting is instinctive within humanity. Everyone has formed a collection of something, no matter how small. From childhood, we all have accumulated objects in different categories, be it matchbox cars to collections of Barbie dolls. Their questionable usefulness is only second to the fascination of playing with them. The first coins used in China were cowrie shells. They were beautiful and rare since they could not be found everywhere. The first attempt to expand the money supply, and make bronze appealing and acceptable, involved making the money into the image of a cowrie shell.

Rembrandt father

I got the bug when I bought my first Roman coin for probably $5 when I was 10 to 12. I would recommend ancient coins, for their market is global. Canadian coins are salable in Canada just as the best market for the U.S. coins is in the United States. Yet, ancient coins cross all borders. The Chinese and Russians are big buyers these days. Cars are too hard to store. Fine art is also something I have collected over the years. I can more than quadruple my investment in things like Rembrandt etchings (the one pictured is of his father).

I have collections of rare books and autographs as well. There are collectors for every category of object. There was the Villa of the Papyri, a private house in the ancient Roman city of Herculaneum, who collected art and books. This tremendous collection has fascinated visitors beyond belief. Collectors have existed throughout history.

FDR Stamp CollectorHunt-Decadrahm

Franklin Roosevelt was a stamp collector, and Teddy Roosevelt was an ancient coin collector. Then there was the ancient coin collection of the Egyptian King Farouk. There was also the fabulous ancient coin collection of Nelson Bunker Hunt – yes, of the silver market.

Other famous coin collectors included Thomas Jefferson, John Quincy Adams, King George III and King Louis XIV. Pope Boniface VIII was also an ancient coin collector. The first major collector of ancient coins was the first Roman Emperor Augustus (27BC-14AD) according to Suetonius.

DBLEDIECollectibles are always a hedge against government. They survive the great monetary crash that sweeps through the world economy every so often. Money is ONLY a medium of exchange – it is NEVER the store of value. That is true even when gold is used as money for whatever might be used as money is then on the opposite side of everything else. So small collectibles are always a good bet. Keep in mind the scope. So ancient coins are salable worldwide while a 1955 Double Die penny will find its best market in the United States. Hence, you can hop on a plane with a Double Die with no problem. However, the sale value in a foreign land may be 20% less than in the States.

Jan 12 2017

Bonds v Shares


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Bonds v Stocks

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong
As a long time reader I rarely see you mention the possible long term benefits of also holding corporate bonds. I understand the obvious down side to government bonds and the reason for stocks to move higher, but since bond holders get paid before stock holders when things go bad would corporate bonds not be a lower risk investment.
Thanks for sharing your work.
TG

 

Corp-Treas%

ANSWER: Corporate bonds of blue-chip companies will eventually move to a premium over government. We can easily see that when government was the place to run, the premium shifted to governments and then declined after 1932. If you are looking at high grade corporate bonds, towards the end of this bull market in shares, you would shift to corporate bonds – not government.

Int%Sprd-MA

We can see historically, no relationship is ever solid or fixed. You can see that 90-day commercial paper was at a huge premium during the 1840s when banks were collapsing during the State Sovereign Debt Defaults.  Then during 1930s you see 90-day commercial paper drop below government. This particular cycle you want to avoid municipal, state, and federal debt issues.