Is Russia Losing?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.

Fearing a Complete Shutdown from Russia, Europe Scraps Plans to Cap Russian Gas Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.

However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.

On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:

“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”

The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Number five is now scrapped.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.

Deutsche Bank CEO Says a Recession is Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe that our economy is resilient enough to cope well with this recession — provided the central banks act quickly and decisively now,” Sewing said.

Going a step further, Sewing blamed China along with Russia. “When it comes to dependencies, we also have to face the awkward question of how to deal with China. Its increasing isolation and growing tensions, especially between China and the United States, pose a considerable risk for Germany,” he warned. Around 12% of German imports and 8% of exports come and go from China. Sewing would like to see a declining dependency on China rather than strengthening their relationship.

Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest. Politicians have been working hard to create war with Russia deliberately, all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet.

When the energy crisis is unavoidable for the average person and the standard of living declines, the politicians will point to Russia and China. The decline began long before Russia lined the border of Ukraine, and China is demonized for simply existing. They would never blame their fiscal mismanagement or detrimental policies for the undoable damage they have created. If Germany falls, all of Europe will follow.

Ukrainian Parliament Lines Pockets with Western Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The pro-war People’s Deputies of Ukraine Party are using Western funding to line their pockets. It has been reported that the average paycheck went from 28,800 to 49,600 hryvnia, and taxpayers in other countries will pay for their raises.

This news came out shortly after CBS attempted to release a documentary that claimed weapon shipments from the US were frequently missing. CBS was forced to redact parts of the documentary, “Arming Ukraine,” after Ukraine’s government threatened them. The first report stated that 70% of the weapon purchases had gone missing, while another piece said only 30% of aid had arrived. “Since that time, Ohman says delivery has improved,” CBS backtracked. “We are updating our documentary to reflect this new information and air at a later date.”

“The weapons are stolen, the humanitarian aid is stolen, and we have no idea where the billions sent to this country have gone,” an anonymous veteran originally told reporters. He went on to claim that soldiers are receiving less pay while those at the top are lining their pockets. Zelensky continually claims that his country needs endless funds for the endless war. Where is this money going? Since WE are paying for the war, we deserve to know the truth.

Liz Truss Becomes PM – Dark Day for Britain


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Liz Truss has been made Prime Minister of Britain. This was expected, but also the darkest day possible for Britain. Previously, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace had backed Liz Truss’ view that Russian forces must be pushed out of “the whole of Ukraine” – and suggested this should include Crimea. Even the Guardian at the time had accused Liz Truss’ position was “recklessly inflaming Ukraine’s war to serve her own ambition.” Meanwhile, in Russia, this was playing out on TV endorsing World War III.

Everything that can possibly point to war is unfolding before our eyes. There are no peacemakers left in the world. Every leader appears to be pushing for war because the monetary system is cracking. Those who think that Russia starting its own gold market will eliminate the manipulations in London do not understand what is taking place. This is the dividing of the world economy that simply follows removing Russia from SWIFT and joining with China to make CIPS the leading global platform for international commerce. This is not about gold prices in Russia v London. This is about the end of GLOBALIZATION and the world economy so carefully constructed post-WWII.

The leaders in the West have been borrowing year after year with no intention of ever paying anything back The lowering of rates to negative in Europe in 2014 undermined the pension funds in Europe as they are effectively insolvent in most cases if they stuck to Euro debt. The Scandinavian funds are outside the Euro and while some struggled to pretend to be “green” they did their best to limit those losses.

When we look at British Politics, it appears that there will be a big shift in 2025. Look off to 2031. That is where the computer is picking up a Panic Cycle, which is corresponding to 2032. As I have warned, the risk of international war appears to be unfolding post-2024. And as far as that inflation goes, it looks like all the sanctions on Russia have backfired. Yet no Western politician will dare tell the truth. And they are now going after farmers? We are staring at serious civil unrest rising globally next year for these brain-dead WOKE politicians who are destroying our way of life.

British News Broadcaster ITV Creates Gameshow for Desperate Viewers to Win Chance to Have Energy Bills Paid


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 5, 2022 

Yes, it’s like something out of a dystopian ‘hunger games’ movie, except it is unfortunately real life.  ITV News in Great Britain is running a wheel-of-fortune type marketing campaign where desperate viewers can call in for an opportunity to spin the wheel and win having their energy bills paid.

Comrades, it is not a spoof, this actually took place today and it looks like it will continue due to popular demand.  UK citizens are facing astronomical increases in energy bills as a result of the EU green climate change agenda in combination with Russia halting the export of natural gas.  The price of natural gas increased 30% today alone as Russia cuts off supplies completely.  Europe is on the brink of the worst economic recession in history.

ITV steps in with a promotional effort that shows just how bizarre this Build Back Better future has become.  Perhaps next week viewers might be able to call in for a chance at winning extra food rations, chocolates or even gasoline.  Here’s a video to show what is happening.  WATCH:

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Good luck comrade citizens, you too could be a winner on the wheel of survival.  It’s all in good fun comrade. Smiles everyone, smiles.

UNREST BEGINS – Massive EU Protests Spiral Out Of Ukraine Crisis


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumple on September 4, 2022 

It begins first in the EU then America and then the world beware of the next three years

Treacherous Times Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
Thank you for keeping up the good fight and keeping us all so informed.
You have said that gold will rise when there is a loss of confidence in gov’t. I would think we are there already. Is there an objective measurement to the loss of confidence? Or is it a self-fulfilling prophecy, in other words, when the price of gold goes up, then there has been a loss of confidence?
Cheers,
MB

ANSWER: I believe that the 2022 election may be the catalyst. Not all people who voted for Trump and/or are Republicans believe that the election of 2020 was rigged. I have been warning for months, that reliable sources in DC, or the Corruption District, have been planning to hand citizenship to illegal aliens before the election to rig the midterms. In addition, they were pushing to indict Trump. Either, but more likely BOTH, may be carried out. I fear this will backfire on them for there will be conservative democrats who will not be happy with handing out citizenship like candy on Halloween.

In Britain, the Indians were generally upset about letting in all the Muslims. They had to show that they not just spoke the language but had the skill set that Britain needed, primarily medical. It seems I have trouble getting in my employees in Europe, the Middle East, and India. I am told I should hire Americans, despite these people having worked for me for more than a decade. I tell them to put on a sombrero, don’t speak any English, walk across the border, and no need for vaccines, they will hand you plenty of pocket change and free everything, including a free flight in the middle of the night. All no problem. No language or skills are necessary – just vote Democrats when they call upon you. You will get a green card and citizenship – no worries! You don’t even have to work.

Most people who read this blog already know the truth about the government. What we are missing is the majority. It is the general mask-wearing public because Lord Fauci told them what to do. It is their confidence that needs to be shaken – not stirred.

The LEFT is always ruthless. Just look at all the times in history major civil wars and revolutions have taken place. The LEFT demands no compromise and that will be their agenda. The rumor I hear is that they have resistance to granting citizenship on the Hill. That much is starting to appear in the press. In desperation, Biden will sign an executive order probably with an order of what he wants for lunch.

It would be unconstitutional for Biden to grant them citizenship by executive decree. Obama’s exec order for DACA was unconstitutional and he had no right making it – he acknowledged that fact and did it anyway fully expecting the challenge that never happened. This is the same scheme. Granting citizenship by executive order will be UNCONSTITUTIONAL, but the LEFT never cares about laws. They assumed that they will vote, and the legal challenge will take at best months, so they win because they will count on the Supreme Court not to overrule an election.

I fear that if this RUMOR became true, perhaps this is why my computer is going nuts on civil unrest and international war in 2023. So let’s pay attention to the arrays for this is our only guide. Nobody’s opinion will count much in such a treacherous time.

President Trump Hits Back Against Joe Biden’s Evil Red Devil Speech in Philadelphia


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 3, 2022

During remarks at a campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, President Trump called Joe Biden’s recent speech against “MAGA Republicans” as the most divisive speech by an American President in history, saying Biden’s chosen red background was “like the devil.”  WATCH:

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Nuts, Biden Administration Plans to Ask Congress for Another $14 Billion For Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house September 3, 2022 | Sundance

This has become absurd.  According to an AP report, Joe Biden is planning to ask congress for an additional $13.7 billion for Ukraine within a budgetary request for $47 billion spending package.

According to the report the Ukraine spending request will be inside a package for additional COVID-19 spending, Monkeypox spending and other domestic relief.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $47 billion in emergency dollars that would go toward the war in Ukraine, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing monkeypox outbreak and help for recent natural disasters in Kentucky and other states.

The request, which comes as lawmakers are preparing to return to Washington and fund the government, seeks $13.7 billion related to Ukraine, including money for equipment, intelligence support and direct budgetary support. Shalanda Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that more than three-fourths of the $40 billion approved by Congress earlier this year has already been disbursed or committed.

“We have rallied the world to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their democracy and we cannot allow that support to Ukraine to run dry,” Young said in a blog post.

[…]  In Friday’s request, the White House is seeking $7.1 billion to procure additional vaccines and for replenishing personal protective equipment in the Strategic National Stockpile, among other measures. Another $8 billion would go to accelerate research for next-generation vaccines and therapeutics.

Biden is also seeking $2 billion to continue COVID-19 testing programs, including an initiative to distribute free at-home tests that ended on Friday as the government says it is running short on funds. White House officials say they have some tests left in the stockpile, but not enough to provide free tests if cases sharply increase. (read more)