President Trump ‘unexpectedly‘ negotiated a major asylum deal with the government of Guatemala.  In a surprise announcement on Friday President Trump invited the press into the oval office where Guatemalan Interior Minister Enrique Degenhart and acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan were gathered in advance.

It’s important to remember that President Trump spoke about this on Wednesday during an impromptu presser.  In essence President Trump delivered an offer/threat at the end of several months of negotiations.  REMINDER:

Q What are you going to do about Guatemala? Guatemala. What are you going to do about Guatemala?

THE PRESIDENT: So, Guatemala gave us their word. We were going to sign a safe third agreement and then, all of a sudden, they backed up. They said it was their supreme court. I don’t believe that. But they use their supreme court as the reason they didn’t want to do it.

So we’ll either do tariffs or we’ll do something. We’re looking at something very severe with respect to Guatemala. I’ve already cut all payments; I did that a year ago. I cut all payments going to Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. We used to send them $500 million for nothing. For nothing. They didn’t do anything except set up caravans.

So, Guatemala we’re going to take care of and it won’t even be tough. We’re going to do — we’re looking at a couple of different things. ~ Wednesday July 24th, 2019.

Apparently against the backdrop of the tariff threat President Trump is holding over the Mexican economy; and considering the Mexican economy has stalled [literally a zero percent growth rate]; Guatemala decided it was better, safer and wiser to cut a deal with President Trump.

After President Trump invited the media into the oval office, he announced Guatemala was signing a “safe third country” asylum agreement with the United Stated. Effectively blocking Central American asylum seekers from reaching the United States and filing asylum applications.  [As an outcome of the agreement asylum seekers who travel through Guatemala can no longer seek U.S. asylum.]

In addition, following the signing ceremony, President Trump held a full press conference  on a variety of subjects from the oval office.  [Video below – Transcript to follow]

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A major win for the Trump administration as the Supreme Court has just ruled to stay a lower court ruling that blocked the President from using $2.5 billion in defense funds to build border security wall.   This means the Department of Homeland Security can now use $2.5 billion in defense appropriations to build the border wall.  A massive win!

The ruling was 5-4 with the liberal justices in the minority.

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Friday allowed the Trump administration to move forward with plans to build a wall along parts of the Mexican border while litigation over paying for it proceeds.

A trial judge had prohibited the administration from transferring $2.5 billion from the Pentagon’s budget to fund the effort, and an appeals court had refused to enter a stay while it considered the administration’s appeal.

The Supreme Court entered a stay, allowing construction to proceed while the litigation continues.

[…]  In urging the Supreme Court to intercede, Noel J. Francisco, the solicitor general, wrote that the plaintiffs’ “interests in hiking, bird watching and fishing in designated drug-smuggling corridors do not outweigh the harm to the public from halting the government’s efforts to construct barriers to stanch the flow of illegal narcotics across the southern border.”

Mr. Francisco argued that the lower courts had misread two provisions of a federal law in concluding that the transfer was not authorized. The law allows reallocation of money to address “unforeseen military requirements” where the expenditures had not already been “denied by Congress.” Mr. Francisco wrote that the drug enforcement measures were unforeseen when the Defense Department made its budget request and that Congress had never addressed the particular narcotics measures. (more)

(pdf of ruling here)

CNBC pundits use the drop in exports to attack the GDP result as Larry Kudlow appears to discuss the overall picture. The knuckleheaded pundits point to tariffs as the reason for the drop in exports without even contemplating (Mamet Principle) the devaluation and subsidies from foreign countries that have driven up the value of the dollar.

While currency manipulation/devaluing (EU and China) drops the prices of their export goods, their devaluation drives up the value of the dollar.  The first impact from a high valued dollar is that it causes our export products to increase in price.  This drops our exports, and can be a drag on the GDP growth rate.  Pundits are intentionally obtuse.

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My advice to President Trump: “Tariff the bastards; all of them” !!

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears with Charles Payne to discuss the latest economic data and the Q2 GDP release.  Within the interview Secretary Ross explains the information behind the data; the status of the USMCA and Pelosi’s motives to delay ratification; the baseline for the U.S-China trade discussions, and the position of the administration to advance the economic interests of the U.S. above all others.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the data for the second quarter of 2019.  The Q2 GDP growth rate of 2.1 percent beat all economic expectations, and highlights strong consumer spending throughout the U.S. economy.

The two primary drags on the Q2 release are also the most volatile: Export/Import contributions (-.65%), and Inventory contributions (-.86%) [table 2]. However, consumer spending was much stronger than anticipated (+4.3%) showing the internal strength of the U.S. labor market and the impact of wage growth which still exceeds 3.6 percent.

The inflation index is still low at 1.5 percent year-over-year, and highlights a point all economic pundits overlook.  With countries attempting to stop the impact of tariffs on their exports they are devaluing their currency (EU and China) and subsidizing their export industries (China).  This has the cumulative effect of lowering their price. As a consequence, and with a strong dollar, the U.S. is importing deflation.

The Fed can do nothing of substance to impact low price inflation because the causes are external to the U.S. economy.  CTH predicted this in 2016, and we stand by that assertion today because we now have almost three years of empirical data to prove it.

Wall Street wants bad news because Wall Street wants a lower fed rate.  As a direct consequence Wall Street’s multinational corporate media bias over the GDP data release is hilarious. The headline from NBC is typical: “Economic Growth Slows Less Than Expected in Second Quarter”….    Sometimes you just have to laugh.

When you boil it all down you see the same battle continues: Wall Street -vs- Main Street.

We are in the space of flux where President Trump’s economic policy and trade reset is favoring Main Street blue-collar workers and companies.

Another way to look at it is where the multinationals (Wall St) are Globalists and fighting the economic Nationalists (Main Street).  This really is the heart of the back-n-forth, and there are trillions at stake.

Right now the U.S. middle-class is driving the economy, bigly.  Meanwhile the investment class is trying to keep their old globalist process in place.  Wall Street wants the U.S. to be a “service driven” economy.  President Trump wants the U.S. to be a “balanced production” economy, with an expanding middle-class.

The Wall Street economy generates a wealth disparity; rich and poor with little room in the middle [a limited pie].  A Main Street economy closes the wealth gap by expanding the wealth of the middle-class through higher wages and opportunity [unlimited pie making].

Overall the 3.1% GDP growth in the first quarter and 2.1% GDP growth in the second quarter, puts us on track for typically stronger Q3 to generate a higher than 3.0 percent average.

All of the internals, measurable stats centered around Main Street, are excellent.  It is the externals, measurable stats centered around Wall Street multinational interests, that are weak.  This is exactly what we would expect to see as President Trump focuses on Main Street USA.

It is not a coincidence that the U.S. and Japan are the world’s two strongest economies as the dynamic of Globalists -vs- Nationalists continues.

Don’t forget to take your Winnamins!

President Trump called-in to Sean Hannity’s TV show tonight to discuss his perspective on the Robert Mueller testimony and current DC events.

The second quarter Gross Domestic Product growth result will be released tomorrow.  The Q2 GDP growth rate is historically the worst quarter of the year.  A growth rate higher than 1.5 percent will be a strong indicator the U.S. economy remains on track for a cumulative year of around three percent.

In the latest economic releases the orders for durable goods “unexpectedly” jumped in June [2 percent], again indicating the overall strength of the U.S. economy and strong consumer purchasing.  Additionally the trade in goods deficit “unexpectedly” declined 1.2 percent in June as more manufacturers “surprisingly” shift production back to the U.S, and domestic consumers are “unexpectedly” loyal to USA.

Every economic indicator is positive, and each series of released data shows the U.S. economy is increasingly strong.  Despite the empirical data, media reporting on economic forecasts continue to convey a negative slant disconnected from what is happening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged in June, suggesting some improvement in business investment, but economic growth is still expected to have slowed sharply in the second quarter amid weaker exports and a smaller inventory build.

Still, the longest U.S. economic expansion on record remains supported by a strong labor market. Other data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a three-month low last week.

The economy has been hurt by the U.S.-China trade war and slowing growth overseas. These factors are expected to encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next Wednesday for the first time in a decade.

The Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 1.9% last month after rising 0.3% in May.

Orders for these so-called core capital goods in June increased across the board, with demand for machinery rising by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would gain 0.2% in June.

“The stronger-than-expected orders are a positive sign that business investment and manufacturing sector activity have not weakened substantially further following softness earlier in the year,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citi in New York.

Core capital goods orders rose 1.9% on a year-on-year basis. Core capital goods shipments, which are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement, increased 0.6% in June after advancing 0.5% in the prior month.

[…] Overall orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, increased 2.0% in June, the most since August 2018, after declining 2.3% in the prior month. Unfilled orders fell for a second straight month. (read more)

President Trump has tweeted support for an American artist A$AP Rocky after Swedish authorities file formal charges which may result in a two-year prison term.

It seems remarkable that a street fight, which did appear to be validly self defense, could result in such a serious situation for this young American musician. President Trump has attempted to help the artist who remains in detention, and expresses disappointment in the status.

ABC News – Rapper A$AP Rocky was charged with assault in Sweden on Thursday over a brawl in the streets of Stockholm on June 30, according to prosecutors.

“I have today commenced criminal proceedings against the three individuals suspected of assault causing actual bodily harm, having come to the conclusion that the events in question constitute a crime and despite claims of self-defence and provocation,” said public prosecutor Daniel Suneson, of the City Public Prosecution Office in Stockholm.

“In reaching this conclusion, I have studied the videos made available to the inquiry,” he added. “It is worth noting that I have had access to a greater amount of material than that which has previously been available on the internet. In addition to video material, the injured party’s statements have been supported by witness statements.”

The rapper’s Swedish attorney Slobodan Jovicic reiterated his argument that his client was acting in self defense and told ABC News on Thursday that while the decision to charge him was “expected,” A$AP Rocky is in “disbelief” and feeling “very disappointed because now it is black and white.”

[…] The trial will take place July 30 and Aug. 1 and 2, the prosecutor’s office said. Suneson added that those who were injured in the fight will testify and that new footage of the assault will be played in court as well. Cameras are not allowed in court. A$AP Rocky faces a maximum sentence of two years in prison if found guilty. (more)

The U.S. worker initiative is one of the least discussed success stories in the landscape of MAGAnomics.  At the heart of the program is a new-era retraining program through a partnership between private companies and the education sector.  There are programs ongoing throughout the nation and it really is a remarkable success.

UPDATE: Video Added

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[White House] Today, President Trump, Vice President Pence, Advisor to the President Ivanka Trump and members of the Cabinet will host an event at the White House with workers and CEOs to celebrate the one year anniversary since the launch of the Pledge to America’s Workers.

Over the course of the last year, Ivanka Trump has spearheaded a call-to-action for States and the private sector to create new education and training opportunities to better serve the American worker and encourage private investment in workforce development. On the first day of this month, President Trump signed a proclamation for Pledge to America’s Workers Month, 2019 and over the past few weeks Administration officials have crisscrossed the country to more than 17 cities to encourage this critical workforce development investment.

The White House is thrilled to announce that since President Trump signed the Executive Order, more than 300 companies and organizations have signed the Pledge, contributing to over 12 MILLION new opportunities for American students and workers over the next five years. Included in that is a huge commitment announced by NAM today that they have signed the Pledge to offer training opportunities to 1.2 Million American workers.

The celebration event is a culmination of the year-long effort, intended to highlight workers’ stories and the role of the private sector in workforce development. Employees and CEOs of companies from around the country that have signed the Pledge to America’s Workers will be in attendance. Members of Congress and local legislators will also be participating in the event.

“Our mission is straightforward: to ensure inclusive growth and opportunity in our booming economy by creating pathways for all Americans, regardless of age or background, to acquiring the skills needed to secure and retain high-paying jobs,” said Ivanka Trump, Advisor to the President.

By the Numbers – As of July 25, 2019:
NEWS: Total # of Pledges (individuals impacted) – 12,730,505
-Total # of Companies/Associations – 335
-Total # of States – 35 states + the District of Columbia
-Total # of Governors – 37 Governors
-Total # of Countries – 12 countries + USA

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