QUESTION: Dear Martin – We owe your respect for what you are doing and I wanna say thanks for educating your followers like me. With the issue of this growing international crisis, are you able to provide ideas on what the triggers maybe when it begins to come out of the surface? What can we observe to identify the beginning, EU Bonds – you mentioned IGOV – the currency, what else? I guess all of your followers are highly interested in that.
Many thanks,
JH
ANSWER: The first was the inverted yield curve which led many to think we were heading into a recession last summer. Then the Repo Crisis hit and despite being touted as just a fluke due to taxes, after more than three months the Fed cannot get out of providing liquidity without stepping back and allowing the free markets to raise short-term rates.
The liquidity crisis has spread even to Japan. Here the Bank of Japan has stood up and announced it would buy government bonds without any limitation trying to also prevent interest rates from rising.
The ECB will have to deal with the whole negative interest rate crisis they have created. They will be forced to allow rates to rise or all member states will have to agree to allow the ECB to adopt the same policies as in Japan — buy all government debt without limit.
Keep an eye on Europe. I do not see any way of avoiding this crisis. Politicians are too busy with other things. The free market will push rates higher and the central banks will be unable to prevent the rise in rates ahead.
QUESTION: Sir,
You have advised us to avoid sovereign debt after the ECM date. I imagine that the crisis will affect nations unequally. It seems obvious that money would leave bonds in the more challenged, negative rate countries (EU and Japan). Might these flows come into US Treasuries, thereby stabilizing US rates, at least short-term? Could this be a trading opportunity (long) in our Treasuries? Thank you.
PK
ANSWER: So far, it appears that the capital flows will continue pointing to the USA going into 2022. Thereafter, we should expect a change in that trend in the same position of the ECM, which created the 1987 Crash also due to a capital flight from the dollar
Back in 2008, a California Socialist activistwas gathering signatures in an attempt to impose a state wealth tax on the ballot that would have imposed a new 35% income surtax on top of the Federal income tax. He realized that people would flee the state, so the solution was to impose an exit tax, seizing 55% of assets exceeding $20 million that anyone possessed seeking to leave the state. On top of all of that, the proposed money raised would then buy controlling shares in large corporations operating in the state.
California is going broke and raising the income tax may present a problem. First, they are seeking to overrule Proposition 13 from 1978 which prohibited raising property tax rates. They are cleverly looking to overrule it by claiming that they should be allowed to raise taxes on business properties. That will open the door to raise property taxes on any property owned by a trust or any corporate structure. But the real concern is if the people vote for that on the 2020 ballot, the wording can be vague enough to allow property taxes to rise in economic difficulties.
Secondly, there is a proposal to introduce a wealth tax, which would circumvent the entire Proposition 13. This is just being talked about behind the curtain and would not be on the ballot in 2020. It is a proposed workaround because they cannot possibly reform and cut their own pensions
Last week Iran apologized for launching a Soviet-made missile that killed 176 people aboard Ukraine International Flight 752. President Hassan Rouhani said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.”
That’s not what the Iranian leaders said at first. They claimed it was due to a mechanical malfunction. Then they refused to give up the black box. Clearly they were trying to hide a terrible mistake, but the scientific evidence was too overwhelming for them to perpetuate such a lie for very long.
The lie outraged the people of Tehran, sparking mass protests. Living under the harsh tyranny of an authoritarian theocracy has to be maddening for a people yearning for freedom, but the Iranians themselves will have to take out the mullahs on their own. The United States should stay out of it except for offering words of encouragement such as the ones President Trump tweeted.
The backward theocratic radicals running Iran have killed thousands of their own citizens. They have lost all credibility and rule by brute force.
It’s time for Iran to become a free and peaceful nation.
Earlier today U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr announced the results of a criminal investigation into the December terrorist attack at Pensacola Naval Air Station. The AG answered press questions at the end of his remarks.
Accompanying AG Bill was FBI Deputy Director David Bowditch. Interestingly, Mr. Bowditch, as SanFran field office head, was the lead investigator of the San Bernadino terrorist attack prior to returning to Washington DC. [Video and Transcript Below]
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[Transcript] – BILL BARR: Good afternoon, and thank you for coming.
We are here to discuss the results of the investigation into the shooting that occurred on Dec. 6, 2019 at Pensacola Naval Air Station.
Joining me today are David Bowdich, Deputy Director of the FBI; John Demers, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; Michael Sherwin, Associate Deputy Attorney General for National Security; Rachel Rojas, FBI Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Field Office in Jacksonville, Florida; and Larry Keefe, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Florida.
I want to thank the FBI and the other federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies involved in responding to and investigating the incident for their rapid and excellent work. Many people worked long hours through the holidays, and I am grateful for their diligence and commitment to seeing this through. You will be hearing from Deputy Director Bowdich shortly about the details of the FBI investigative work, which was superb.
In considering this case, we have to remember that there are thousands of allied pilots and other military personnel receiving training on military bases throughout the United States. These military partnerships are critically important to the United States. The Royal Saudi Air Force, which flies American-made aircraft, is an important military partner, and has long had a training relationship with us.
On Dec. 6, 2nd Lt. Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, a member of the Royal Saudi Air Force, entered a building on the grounds of Pensacola Naval Air Station and killed three U.S. sailors and severely wounded eight other Americans. Alshamrani was killed during the attack.
This was an act of terrorism.
The evidence shows that the shooter was motivated by jihadist ideology. During the course of the investigation, we learned that the shooter posted a message on social media on Sept. 11 of last year that said: “the countdown has begun.” Over Thanksgiving weekend, he visited the 9/11 Memorial in New York City. He also posted other anti-American, anti-Israeli, and jihadi messages on social media, and did so two hours before his attack at the naval base.
Early reports indicated that the shooter arrived at the site, accompanied by other Saudi cadets, who took video of the attack as it unfolded. These reports turned out not to be accurate. The shooter arrived by himself. Other Saudi cadets happened to be in the area and, after the attack began, they took some videos of the resulting commotion. They fully cooperated in the investigation, as did the other Saudi cadets who were interviewed by the FBI at Pensacola and at additional bases across the country.
After Alshamrani entered the building and cased the facility, he proceeded to walk around shooting down his unarmed victims in cold blood.
During and after this heinous attack, there were many specific acts of courage, and I want to draw special attention to two U.S. Marines: Gunnery Sgt. Ryan Maisel and Staff Sgt. Samuel Mullins.
They were outside the building when they heard gunfire and, although unarmed, they ran into the building to confront the shooter. Their only weapon was a fire extinguisher that they had pulled off the wall as they ran toward the gunfire. Who but the Marines?
Although they were unable to engage the shooter, they helped save many lives by performing CPR and other medical aid on the victims.
I would also like to mention the heroic acts of Navy Airman Ryan Blackwell. The shooter shot Airman Blackwell five times, yet Ryan still managed to jump on top of a fellow sailor to keep her from being shot. He further assisted other students and helped them escape, all while taking additional fire from the shooter. Airman Blackwell’s heroic acts also saved countless lives that day.
We are grateful as well for the bravery of the base personnel and local law enforcement responders who initially arrived at the scene and engaged the shooter.
I would also like to address the cooperation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia gave complete and total support for our counter-terrorism investigation, and ordered all Saudi trainees to fully cooperate. This assistance was critical to helping the FBI determine whether anyone assisted the shooter in the attack.
While there was no evidence of assistance or pre-knowledge of the attack by other members of the Saudi military (or any other foreign nationals) who are training in the United States, we did learn of derogatory material possessed by 21 members of the Saudi military who are training here in the United States.
17 had social media containing some jihadi or anti-American content. However, there was no evidence of any affiliation or involvement with any terrorist activity or group. 15 individuals (including some of the 17 just mentioned) had had some kind of contact with child pornography. While one of these individuals had a significant number of such images, all the rest had one or two images, in most cases posted in a chat room by someone else or received over social media.
The relevant U.S. Attorneys offices independently reviewed each of the 21 cases involving derogatory information and determined that none of them would, in the normal course, result in federal prosecution.
However, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia determined that this material demonstrated conduct unbecoming an officer in the Saudi Royal Air Force and Royal Navy and the 21 cadets have been dis-enrolled from their training curriculum in the U.S. military and will be returning to Saudi Arabia (later today).
The Kingdom has assured me that it will review each of these cases under their code of military justice and criminal code. The Kingdom has also agreed that we will have full access to anyone we want to interview in Saudi Arabia and any documents relevant to our investigation. Indeed, it has already been providing documents. Further, the Kingdom has assured us that, if we later decide to charge any of those being sent back to Saudi Arabia in connection with this counterterrorism investigation, it will return them for trial.
We appreciate Saudi Arabia’s cooperation in this case.
Finally, I want to address an issue regarding the shooter’s phones.
The shooter possessed two Apple iPhones, seen on posters here.
Within one day of the shooting, the FBI sought and received court authorization based on probable cause to search both phones in an effort to run down all leads and figure out with whom the shooter was communicating.
During the gunfight with first responders, the shooter disengaged long enough to place one of the phones on the floor and shoot a single round into the device. It also appears the other phone was damaged.
Our experts at the FBI crime lab were able to fix both damaged phones so they are operational.
However, both phones are engineered to make it virtually impossible to unlock them without the password. It is very important to know with whom and about what the shooter was communicating before he died.
We have asked Apple for their help in unlocking the shooter’s iPhones. So far Apple has not given us any substantive assistance. This situation perfectly illustrates why it is critical that investigators be able to get access to digital evidence once they have obtained a court order based on probable cause. We call on Apple and other technology companies to help us find a solution so that we can better protect the lives of Americans and prevent future attacks.
With that, I will turn things over to Deputy Director Bowdich.
While the admission of fault is rather unusual for Iran, they really didn’t have much choice. Despite their earnest effort to cover-up the cause and deny their involvement, the evidence was overwhelming that Iranian military shot-down Ukraine Airline flight 752 killing 176 passengers and crew.
IRAN – The general staff of Iran armed forces says a Ukrainian plane that crashed on Wednesday was brought down due to human error. Iran targeted the passenger plane unintentionally, Iran’s Press TV reports. (link)
In a tweet by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the diplomat attempts to blame the U.S. and apologize to the victims families.
QUESTION: I found your analysis in Iran v USA very interesting. Sometimes I do have to read between the lines. For example, you wrote: “We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.” That implies you did not see anything prior to that warranting war. You added: “The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs.”
You also wrote that the war cycle involving Iran comes into play starting 2021.29. To me, you were saying not now.
Iran fired missiles and they now say their retaliation was proportionate. They did not kill any Americans but could claim they targeted American bases.
I met a former staff member of yours who said you had very long-standing ties into the Middle East going back decades. Is the fact that you did not specifically state there was an imminent threat of war implicit in your comment there was no concern until November 4, 2022?
PVB
ANSWER: If there was an imminent threat I would state so. Neither my sources nor Socrates reflected such an event. Iran realizes that the USA could literally blow them out of the water. There was a lot of back-channeling going on cautioning Iran not to get reckless from both Russia and China despite publicly disagreeing with the USA. There are often a lot of things taking place behind the curtain and there are some who want to know if Socrates is picking anything up in the capital flows that would indicate an imminent war.
This could change within the next two weeks on a small scale. The attack by Iran was to save face. They had to be seen as doing something. Trump was told this is simply how leaders must save face before their own people. This does not mean it is over. This will not be the last we have heard from Iran. They will act only when they have the support of Russia and China.
It was only a matter of time before western intelligence agencies confirmed Ukraine flight 752 was shot down just north of Tehran by Iranian anti-aircraft missiles. The evidence was growing, and it was/is overwhelming.
Most of the passengers on the flight were Canadian or Iranian heading to Canada. Today a somber Prime Minister Trudeau informed Canadians the aircraft was shot down.
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There were 176 passengers and crew aboard: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. The nose of a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) was identified in a debris field near the crash site.
CNN Breaking News
✔@cnnbrk
The Ukrainian airliner was shot down by Iran with Russian-made surface-to-air missiles, a US official says. Follow live updates.https://cnn.it/35DY6er
Canada believes Flight PS752 was shot down by Iran: Trudeau
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the plane that crashed in Iran Wednesday morning, killing all 138 people aboard, was shot down by an Iranian missile, potentially by accident.
#BREAKING: @CBSNews has learned U.S. officials are confident that Iran shot down a Ukrainian jetliner in the hours after the Iranian missile attack on U.S. targets.
176 people were killed, including at least 63 Canadians.
In the aftermath of Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 exploding and crashing just north of Tehran airport, the Iranian government is refusing to turn-over the black box flight data recorders recovered from the crash site. Combined with the timing and location, their refusal is leading to increased speculation the flight may have accidentally been targeted by Iranian air-defense systems. The tragedy is being compounded by Iranian politics.
The Boeing 737-800 is a very dependable aircraft with three decades of service. This specific Ukraine aircraft was built in 2016 & just had a service inspection on January 6th. Immediately after the crash, Iranian officials stated the cause was “technical difficulties”, and after video surfaced showing the plane was on fire heading to the ground, Iran later stated the cause was one of the engines on fire. However, there was no distress call or report of issue, from very experienced Ukraine pilots to Tehran air-traffic control.
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There were 176 passengers and crew aboard: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. Additionally, what appears to be the nose of an M1 Surface to Air Missile (SAM) has been identified in a debris field near the crash site.
Translated: @Azematt – “Local people where to shoot the first photo, take it inside the place of the father of Nazdiky, the place of the fall of the Ukrainian fall. @AshkanMonfared_Farstadeh as it clearly divided the Central Bank of Moskur”
Ilham Adamy@ilhamadamy
Hot stuff, it says the debris of what looks like the Tor M1 SAM were found near the crash site of Ukraine Flight PS752. I’m not sure though, it’s quite unlikely that the warhead would remain intact (as suggested by the photo) after impact (with a passenger plane). https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561 …
Azim@Azematt
یکی از افراد محلی این تصویر اول رو از یک قطعه داخل جوب آب در نزدیکی محل سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی برای@AshkanMonfared_ فرستاده که به وضوح قسمت کنترل یک موشک تور ام ۱ هست/
Trudeau was asked if he could rule out that flight PS752 from Tehran to Kyiv was not shot down: “I can not,” he said: Read more here: https://www.cbc.ca/1.5418648
QUESTION: Marty, at one of your WEC events during the nineties, if I remember correctly, you had said that your capital flow analysis revealed that the dollar rises during European and Middle Eastern wars and declines with North American wars. Could you refresh my memory on that?
I will see you in Shanghai. Never been there. Looks like it will be a very interesting conference.
Cheers;
KL
ANSWER: Nice to hear from you. Yes, your memory is not bad. Capital Flows are very distinct. Capital will always seek to move away from a war zone. In the case of Europe, it was the massive capital outflows from Europe which fled to the USA for both World War I and World War II. The USA was near-bankrupt in 1896 when JP Morgan came to the rescue. That is what made the USA the financial capital of the world. The same was true of the Suez Canal Crisis.
The Arab–Israeli War of 1948 broke out when five Arab nations invaded the territory in the former Palestinian mandate immediately following the announcement of the independence of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. I hate to point out but 2020 will be 72 years from that event. This was followed by the major devaluations of currencies against the dollar – i.e. British pound. During the Cuba Missile Crisis (October 16-28, 1962), the currencies were fixed. The capital flows still managed to cause the British pound to rally from $2.78 to $2.81.
In the case of the Gulf War (August 2, 1990 – February 28, 1991), like Russia and the Lebanese War, our computer was picking up the capital flows which were indicating there was something brewing in the Middle East. You can easily see that the Euro began to spike upward in advance of the August 2, 1990, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
Even for 911, the US government used our study to identify the capital which was strategically moving in advance to profit from the attack. Later, the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (also known as the “9/11 Commission”) conceded that there was highly unusual trading activity in the airline stocks of American and United prior to September 11, but they tried to play it down as coincidence to discourage these further strategies. The capital flows clearly reflected sharp movement in advance which was international, not domestic.
It was our Capital Flow models that forecast the collapse of Russia back in 1998. I have told the story at various WEC events how I stumbled upon this relationship. We had a client back in the 1980s which was a major bank in Lebanon. They found a leger with the price quotes each day of the Lebanese pound back into the mid 19th century. They asked if we could create a model on their currency. We fed in all the data and the computer came back and forecast that Lebanon would fall apart in 8 days. I thought there was something wrong. I told the client what the computer forecast and they very calmly asked, what currency would be best? I was stunned. They obviously knew something was brewing and on May 19, 1985, heavy fighting erupted between Amal Movement and Palestinian camp militias. The computer was correct to the very day. Then a Saudi client was one of the biggest shipping companies with very high political connections. He called and said that Iran would begin attacking shipping in the Gulf and asked what gold would do?
I began to realize that people with inside information moved money in advance of geopolitical events some to profit, and others to avoid losses. This is what the computer picks up. It does not identify the person.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
“missiles” plural.
Centinel2012 