Western Sanctions Not Impacting Russian Economy as Much as Expected


Posted originally on the CTH on August 9, 2023 | Sundance 

I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months.  Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.

The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic.  That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes.  When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective.  My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.

There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE].  On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.

[READ HERE]

The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation.  The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency.  Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began.  Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.

The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks.  However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.

I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share.  However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.

I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.

I have mostly been looking at three areas in Western Russia.  Kazan, Moscow and St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).  Of the three generally large metropolitan areas, St Petersburg is by far the most interesting.  It’s beautiful there and the city is alive and vibrant.

In many ways you might compare Russia in 2023 to the USA in/around 1988.  Life is just not complicated and far more socially engaged.

I’ll have more on this later, but if you are ever bored check out the Russian YouTubers who livestream broadcast “a day-in-the-life” type of activity.  The infrastructure is in generally good repair, the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.

There are certainly negatives and the cultural dynamic of the former USSR is still evident.  Technologically they are somewhat behind in some details, but the overall cohesion of their value system is something I did not fully appreciate until I started down this road of research.

I can see why the average Russian could be wide-eyed during a visit to the USA and fascinated with the overall quality of life that might be considered indulgent.  However, I can also see how reciprocally the average American could be wide-eyed and smiling at the overall sense of the Russian people.

Strip out the politics, and we are all much more similar than we are different.

The Intercept Publishes Diplomatic Cable Highlighting U.S. Pressure on Pakistan to Remove President Imran Khan


Posted originally on the CTH on August 9, 2023 | Sundance 

What do Pakistan’s Imran Khan, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, USA’s Donald Trump, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Mexico’s Lopez-Obrador all have in common?

First, they are all strong nationalists. Second, the U.S. government has either influenced the removal and judicial incarceration or is currently seeking the removal and judicial incarceration of each of them.

As the U.S. State Dept. (Tony Blinken), USAID (Samantha Power) and CIA (Director Burns) conduct influence operations around the world to advance the interests of the multinationals; newly released diplomatic cables from inside Pakistan reveal the U.S. influence effort to remove former Pakistan President Imran Khan.

It sucks to wake up every day and accept the USA are the bad guys.

THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT encouraged the Pakistani government in a March 7, 2022, meeting to remove Imran Khan as prime minister over his neutrality on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to a classified Pakistani government document obtained by The Intercept.

The meeting, between the Pakistani ambassador to the United States and two State Department officials, has been the subject of intense scrutiny, controversy, and speculation in Pakistan over the past year and a half, as supporters of Khan and his military and civilian opponents jockeyed for power.

The political struggle escalated on August 5 when Khan was sentenced to three years in prison on corruption charges and taken into custody for the second time since his ouster. Khan’s defenders dismiss the charges as baseless. The sentence also blocks Khan, Pakistan’s most popular politician, from contesting elections expected in Pakistan later this year.

One month after the meeting with U.S. officials documented in the leaked Pakistani government document, a no-confidence vote was held in Parliament, leading to Khan’s removal from power. The vote is believed to have been organized with the backing of Pakistan’s powerful military. Since that time, Khan and his supporters have been engaged in a struggle with the military and its civilian allies, whom Khan claims engineered his removal from power at the request of the U.S.

The text of the Pakistani cable, produced from the meeting by the ambassador and transmitted to Pakistan, has not previously been published. The cable, known internally as a “cypher,” reveals both the carrots and the sticks that the State Department deployed in its push against Khan, promising warmer relations if Khan was removed, and isolation if he was not. (read more, including cable)

European Companies Lost Over €100 Billion on Russia Amid War


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Aug 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Financial Times estimates that European companies have lost at least €100 billion ($110 billion) since the Russia-Ukraine war began. Around 176 European companies noted significant losses in their fiscal year reports for 2022, and the future remains grim as tensions continue to grow.

Naturally, energy-related industries faced half of those losses, followed by banking, chemicals, industrial, and automotive. BP, TotalEnergies, and Shell lost 40.6 billion euros due to the war, but the spike in energy costs helped them to post favorable earnings reports. Numerous European companies cited “asset impairments, foreign exchange-related charges and other one-off expenses as a result of the sale, closure or reduction of Russian businesses.” Britain, Germany, and France reported the steepest losses, attributing to at least 20 billion of the 100 billion euros lost.

Half of the 1,871 European companies previously operating in Russia are still conducting full or limited business there, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Russia has since required foreign companies fleeing Russia to pay a 10% exit fee and sell their assets to Russian companies at a 50% discount. It is nearly impossible for companies to operate in Russia due to high sanctions, logistics, and public pressure. Businesses that did not flee will be faced with massive charges from Moscow and are practically stuck between forfeiting their businesses or attempting to operate amid an escalating war.

Big Picture Interview of Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Aug 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The following image is what the WEF and the Neocons have planed for us.

Planned Parenthood – Eugenics and Population Control Report


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Aug 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Planned Parenthood released its annual report for 2021-2022, congratulating themselves for the work they have done. Bans off our bodies – sure. I do not take the authoritarian route on any personal choice. But there is no mistaking the targeted eugenics program at the foundation of Planned Parenthood. They have been openly targeting Black and Brown babies since the beginning. Margaret Sanger, the founder of Planned Parenthood, who Hillary Clinton calls her idol, openly believed that minorities were unfit to have children. Sanger attended KKK rallies to promote abortions and gain funding. She endorsed the 1927 Buck v. Bell decision that allowed the US government to forcibly sterilize “unfit” mothers without consent, resulting in thousands of women losing their right to reproduce.

It could not be more obvious. Sanger began the “Negro Project” in 1939, where she hired Black nurses and doctors to eliminate fears of racism. She even recruited Black religious leaders. Sanger opened clinics in the South in predominately Black neighborhoods, and to this day, Planned Parenthood clinics are in predominately Black neighborhoods.

In 2022, Planned Parenthood ACTIVELY MARKETED its services to “reach new audiences,” predominately in the Black and Latino communities. Page 25 of their report discusses how they enrolled the help of Black, Latina, and non-binary creators to reach minorities and successfully received over 20 million views and 135,000 new followers. They specifically want minorities to walk through their doors. They make no mention of marketing to the White or Asian communities for a reason. This is not merely about abortion; it’s a eugenics program.

So in 2021, Planned Parenthood performed 374,155 abortions, amounting to 1,200 abortions per day. Only 1,803 women opted to put their babies up for adoption. The clinics saw fewer clients but performed more abortions, meaning the education piece is not a priority. They now offer the abortion pill through telemedicine as well. They are promoting gender transitioning services to reduce further the number of people who can reproduce, and even have a guideline on how to talk to your PRESCHOOLER about gender identity.

So sure, make your decision based on your own circumstances. The government need not tell us what to do on any level. That is between you, your doctor, and God. But this organization was never intended to empower women. From the beginning, their mission has been to rid the world of those deemed undesirable and unfit to live by the founders. Hence, the US government supplements 35% of its funding as reducing the global population is the goal.

Modern Analysis for the 21st Century


Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs Re-Posted Aug 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin. I’ve been a long-time follower and one of the first subscribers to Socrates “Basic.” Your information is always valuable! I’d classify myself as a retired, middle class fellow, who has put away enough funds to be comfortable. But, I got very uncomfortable when you just posted “We cannot rule out the Biden Administration canceling the dollar before the 2024 election.” My fears for myself and my family are being caught offguard in investment, location, and security. I can’t afford going to your annual events; would you consider a large treatise or book on how to survive in the middle class?

LC

ANSWER: These are the next two books. The first, Modern Analysis for the 21st Century, dives into technical analysis and why fundamental analysis has been so wrong. I am trying to make an authoritative work that perhaps after I am dead will force academia to change the course of its methodology, particularly in economic analysis. The Geometry of Time will deal with cyclical analysis. I think we are all here for some purpose and then we get to leave. I hope this is what I leave behind.

Trudeau’s Tinder Profile


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Aug 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Must be a quadruple-vaccinated conformist who rejects all freedoms. Open to all genders or non-genders! Must enjoy long plane rides to Davos, the occasional lockdown, and be interested in implementing the New World Order with me and my friends at the World Economic Forum. Absolutely no truckers or family members of truckers — swipe left if you even own a large vehicle. My friends would say I am overprotective and controlling. I will likely freeze your bank account if you break up with me. Swipe right if you want to be remembered as the next Eva Braun of Canada!

WEF Agenda 2030


Armstrong Economics Blog/WEF Re-Posted Aug 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Online News Act Bill C-18


Aemstrong Economics Blog/Censorship Re-Posted Aug 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Canadian government does not want people sharing news stories online. The government should be the sole source of information. The Online News Act (Bill C-18) would require social media platforms and online sources to compensate Canadian news agencies for sharing news online. A report by Angus Reid found that 85% of Canadians do not subscribe to news outlets and primarily rely on the internet for information. The government cannot control what is published online (yet) but they can easily control official news agencies.

Google said the bill “breaks the way the web and search engines have worked for more than 30 years.” It prevents Canadians from freely accessing information, as those costs need to be reacquired somewhere. Any time someone interacts with a news article, the Canadian government wants a cut. In turn, major platforms such as Meta and Google have announced that they will no longer publish news articles by Canadian outlets.

“In order to provide clarity to the millions of Canadians and businesses who use our platforms, we are announcing today that we have begun the process of ending news availability permanently in Canada,” Meta said in a statement. Dictator Trudeau has made a big push toward full media censorship.

“It’s like 1984,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stated. “You have a prime minister passing a law to make news articles disappear from the internet. Who would’ve ever imagined that in Canada, the federal government would pass laws banning people from effectively seeing the news? Who would’ve thought that we’d have a government that would pass a law to manipulate the algorithms of the internet?” Trudeau will continue to usurp as much power as possible at the expense of the Canadian people.

Can Cryptocurrencies Survive in an Authoritarian World?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jul 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Thanks for all the great information you share. I have a question regarding cryptocurrencies. Do you think all countries will try to abolish crypto or only certain countries (such as the US) in favor of a central bank digital currency? As of now, many countries appear much more accepting of crypto than the US. Thanks again.

JWM

ANSWER: This is a good question. Before the stupid sanctions imposed on Russia removed them from SWIFT, the IMF would threaten tax havens that if they did not turn over the people with accounts in their country, they would be removed from SWIFT. The sanction against Russia have backfired, so now we have China and Iran setting up their alternatives to SWIFT. I would have assumed that they would have threatened countries against the removal from SWIFT if they did not shut down cryptocurrencies, for they would provide an alternative to CBDC and thereby skirt their end goal of 100% control and taxation. In trying to sanction Russia, they have lost their absolute power to abuse SWIFT to threaten countries. Theoretically, the tax havens could switch to China’s CIPS and say screw you to the US and EU.

As I have said, an EMP could wipe out the entire financial system and neutralize even nuclear weapons capability. I do not see how these people will succeed in dominating the world. Their abuse of SWIFT to punish Russia has undermined their power and the entire world economy. This is most likely part of the 2032 collapse.

I would be concerned about cryptocurrencies making the transition to what lies beyond 2032. That is highly speculative. I would tend to rely on the tangle assets to make the transition to whatever the new monetary system will emerge post-2032.