The Yellow Vest movement is indeed spreading worldwide. In France, they are out destroying speed cameras. Most Americans are familiar only with the red light cameras that cities have been forced to take down for they are unconstitutional. That is why you did not get points for the violation, just penalties. In Europe, the speed cameras are outrageous. When I was living in Switzerland for a few months, boy did I get tickets galore. You suddenly find out that you get a ticket for just 1 km over the speed limit. In the States, a cop will not give you a ticket until you are more than 10 miles an hour over the limit. Your speedometer can be off as well as theirs. In Europe, there is no such recognition.
In Rome, just don’t bother even renting a car. All you will get are countless tickets as they change the speed limits at different times during the day and they will take a year to send you a ticket without any description of what the fine is even for. In Europe, these are just an excuse to impose more forms of taxes.
As government becomes ever increasingly desperate for money to pay their own pensions, we are headed into a clash that will be civil unrest on a global scale that will begin to rise much more dramatically after the turn in the ECN come January 2020. The polls show that the Yellow Vests Movement in France has 70% of the population behind them.
The Yellow Vest Movement in France is turning to an all-out war against Macron. Many are now advocating withdrawing their money from backs in order to topple Macron. Yellow Vest activists ‘Gilets Jaunes’, are now supported by up to 70% of the population. This new effort stepping up their pressure to de-throne President Macron and regain French sovereignty from the hands of the EU elites and globalists is becoming really intense as they call on the people to remove Euros from French banks to destabilize the regime.
Now we are witnessing the further spread of the Yellow Vest Movement as Taiwanese demonstrators have also launched their ‘yellow vest’ movement to protest taxes. The Yellow Vest Movement has also now emerged in Lebanon as people there to are calling for “Revolution” to unfold.
Listening to the WEC 2018 recording this weekend, Mike Campbell made an interesting sideline comment. He stated that pension funds were heavily invested in real estate . Is this just Canada or the US as well? If taxes go up will this further push the pension funds over as well as the emerging markets? If pension funds go under what happens to these investments?
Wasting time by checking my Facebook page I saw 2 advertisements that struck me. One was for investing in high end real estate apartments in Charlotte and the other similarly for investing a national hotel chain but in a specific hotel in Atlanta. Is this the canary in the coal mine ie peak for this ECM wave in real estate?
Keep up the good work
DK
ANSWER: Yes. Many went into real estate particularly to get rental income. They did the same in buying farmland and then renting it out for 5%. This was caused by the manipulation of interest rates to absurd levels. This is one of the issues I have pointed out in Washington and it has gone back to the Federal Reserves. This is one of the reasons why the Fed has been raising rates. They MUST get them back to normal levels. Insurance and pension fund along with some banks have gone into the property markets and emerging market debt to compensate for the low interest rates.
I have been warning that the European and Japanese central banks have DESTROYED their bond markets. There is NO BID and capital has rushed off into other areas. Europeans have been big participants in the Dow Jones not just for the yield and price advance, but also for the currency gains as the Euro has faltered.
The last Documentary film I did was on this very crisis of destroying the bonds markets. The central banks were buying the government debt BECAUSE nobody else would at such low levels! They are shooting another segment and then I believe it will all be released as another film in the movies.
Worldwide, we are witnessing a decline in property values. This is part of the crisis we face going into 2020. As values decline, you will see more of this attempt to entice a private investor to jump into a falling market. STAY OUT OF PROPERTY OFFERS!!!!!!!! New Jersey is now the #1 state people are fleeing from because property taxes are insane and they will do nothing but rise. If you ever thought of moving to a lower taxes state – YOU BETTER DO IT before there is NO BID to try to sell your house
QUESTION: I get up in the morning, make coffee and read your blog. Thank you for your service to humanity.
Ok, so the Democrats want to go back to the 1950’s with 70% tax rates. Does that also mean they’ll reinstate the same deductions that were available back then? For example, passive activity loss rules would go away, personal credit card interest, medical expenses, and job expenses would be deductible, companies could deduct meals and entertainment, vehicle expenses, corporate jets etc. Also, there was a tax credit of 10% of the cost of new and used equipment placed in service. It is unfair to look only at the tax rate without looking at how taxable income was calculated. And how about Social Security tax being applied to a few thousand of earned income.
M
ANSWER: No. They will never put back all the deductions. This is all about raising taxes for their claimed Socialistic Agenda but in fact, as the deficits rise and interest expenditures explode, they will be raising taxes sharply as they always do pretending to be taxing just the super-rich. They NEVERlower taxes on the middle class. They just point to the rich to raise taxes without any benefit to anyone else. Normally, the play games with the definition of the rich.
The Trump Taxcut denied deducting what you pay in taxes to a state after 10k. They blame Trump for that yet this has been on their wish list for the past 30 years. If the Democrats get hold of the White House and the Senate, you can bet your life they will not change that deduction. They silently all cheered for that – both Democrats and Republicans. The Definition of the rich has always been classified as “household” income. The burden of student loans preventing the youth from leaving home and buying their own house is wiping out the economy. It has reached a 75-year high coming in at a stunning 40%! The impact of this is the call among Democrats behind the curtain to get the IRS to add all the incomes in a household including the children to push them higher into the category of the “rich” which starts at the $250,000 level – not $10 million. The plan will be to raise the taxes on the rich and the define who are the rich. They will NEVER tell you the truth to your face. This is all part of the decline and fall of Western society.
QUESTION: What about what China did by buying stocks a few years ago to stop the hang sang from dropping
ANSWER: Do not confuse attempts to support a market from actually being able to do so. This is the same as Keynesian economics that government could prevent recessions. Larry Summers admitted the government cannot even forecast such events. Not only during the Great Depression did companies jump in to buy their shares during the crash to try to prevent the decline. Most of the companies that took that action actually failed for they bought the stock back trying to hold the price and lost needed cash reserves. They could not sell stock again nor could the borrow.
During the collapse of the Nikkei after 1989, companies held believing that the government would support the market. When they realized the government could not then the government encouraged us to bail out the Japanese corporations. We helped well over 300 public companies issuing a note to buy their portfolios at their cost with 10-year payouts and each note had to be approved by the Japanese government individually. If the governments were able to actually prevent declines, then they would. But nobody can do that for the size of the public at large far outweighs any institution, group of institutions, or banks.
People would rather believe in conspiracy theories than simply look at the reality. Attempts to manipulate markets ALWAYS fail because the majority is far greater than any minority. The trend is made by the MAJORITY. A panic sell-off like the Crash of 1987 took place BECAUSE there was no bid – not that there was a massive short position. Scare the MAJORITY and they then try to sell, you find no bid and that is how a flash crash unfolds. This is why outlawing short positions is destructive for the only person with the courage to try to catch a falling knife is the one who is taking profit – not initiating a long position.
While the BitCoin people have hated me for not agreeing with them that a private currency could displace the currencies of all nations and BitCoin would be the new “reserve currency” killing the dollar, to me they are in serious need of help. They have ZERO comprehension of governmental power and ZERO understanding of what is going on behind the curtain. The IMF has come out and stated that each nation should issue their own cryptocurrency and these fools cheers claiming I am not with it and do not get this new age of technology. Sorry, but these people are really clueless if not perhaps undercover people with a mission to get people willing to surrender their final liberty – paper money.
While cryptobugs advocate gold is dead and BitCoin will conquer the financial world, they miss the point entirely. The IMF is by no means embracing cryptocurrencies for the same reason these people have claimed it will bypass central banks. The IMF is advocating the end of paper money to kill the underground or black economy solely to aid the hunt for taxes and to PREVENT bank runs. If there is no paper money, how can you run to the bank in a panic demanding to withdraw your money? They also argue eliminating paper money will end crime.
Now, Michael Andrew, the man appointed by the Australian Federal government to lead the ‘Black Economy Taskforce’ at the end of 2016, is arguing for an interim-step. He believes tracking the currency denomination is the best solution in stopping the underground/black economy and grabbed taxes if you found a $50 or $100 bill on the street and failed to give the government their 50%.
Governments are going broke. They will not listen and instead, they are obsessed with just a solution for the next quarter. They lack any vision of the future and will NEVER tax responsibility for their own mismanagement. Their single solution is to always raise taxes rather than reform. The more they press toward this cashless society the greater the economic implosion. What comes after the elimination of cash and the budgets are never balanced with institution starting to shift to private assets rather than government bonds that pay nothing and present huge risks will be the default on social programs without the corresponding reduction in taxes. This all leads to the inevitable collapse of Western Society just as we witnessed the collapse of Communism in 1989.
Our model is famous for forecasting the collapse of Communism and even the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989; 1989.857). The likelihood of Western Socialism surviving as some benevolent government will come to an end by 2041.457. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests that culminated on June 4th, 1989 (1989.424). This means we should begin to see a sharp rise in civil unrest cyclically speaking beginning October 28th, 2020 going into the US Presidential elections.
The future appears very dark unless we can convince the world governments that they face a hopeless path to secure its power. In this hunt for taxes, they are destroying all liberty. They cannot reasonably pretend to be governments of the people and by the people in a wonderful land of democracy and opportunity when they need to track everything we do and have. Paying a babysitter will be illegal with cash. Society will not run to cryptocurrencies with open arms. We will be forced to return to barter systems.
COMMENT: It looks like the Plunge Protection Team had a field day with the 1,000 rally in the Dow. Back in the 70s I read a small article near the back page of the WSJ that said that the CIA was using two small obscure banks in the Midwest to trade futures. The way they do it is to buy the futures and force the floor traders to stop selling. Then they pile it on and force the shorts to cover.
CM
ANSWER: That is really impossible. I have NEVER found a market that has EVER defied our model. The market bottomed precisely when it should have. Our Cyclical Array pinpointed the day well in advance. That proves there was nothing unusual. Last Friday the 21st, I wrote on the Private Blog: “We do have another Weekly Bearish Reversal at 22739 and a closing below that could warn of a Cycle Inversion meaning down into new week bottoming perhaps on the 26th and then rally into the following week for year-end and then turn back down into January.”
If what you are saying is true, then the government would never collapse and they are 100% in control of everything. That is just not the case. You are attributing power to them that they believe they have. However, if they had such power, then taxes would never rise for they are 100% in control and nothing would happen. Larry Summers, the father of negative interest rates, admitted in a Bloomberg interview that those in power can NEVER forecast a decline because it is a complex system.
I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002.”
Then on the day of the low, 26th of December, I posted on the Private Blog at 3AM for the European Open: “Often the bulk of a decline will unfold the day BEFORE the market closes. This is typically as natural human response of the fear of the unknown after the market reopens.”
I just do not see ANYTHING in the market behavior or patterns that would indicate something abnormal. The real explanation is just that all the selling took place on Monday as people feared it would collapse further on the 26th after the market opened. That has been the pattern for more than 100 years – panic before a close of the market for fear of the unknown. Sorry, great story about the Plunge Protection Team. A similar theory prevailed in Japan that the government would NEVERallow the Nikkei to fall. It did, and that belief led to a 19-year depression in share market price, but 26-year economic depression which did not begin to shift trend until 2015.75.
There have been attempts to create a Plunge Protection Team before. The banks got together to try to save the market back in October 1929. Here is the Los Angeles Times from October 26th, 1929 talking about the Stabilizing Forces to save the market. They failed to prevent the Great Depression.
Nobody can step in front of a falling market and survive. Nevertheless, despite the continued failure of such efforts, this myth is always spun. Anyone who believes that such a Plunge Protection Team can even survive never bothers to look at history.
The Socialists are out to blame Trump’s Tax cuts to argue why taxes should be higher. At the beginning of 2o18, Trump imposed a spectacular tax cut making the USA much more competitive than its European counterparts. Trump argued that the tax reduction would contribute to the recovery of the economy and finance itself through additional tax revenues as what took place with the Reagan tax cuts. However, we have the Socialists playing loos with the facts, as always, claiming the cost of the tax cut was $1.5 billion a year. They now claim that Trump’s tax cuts were funded by more debt since it rose by $1.271 billion. Their argument is always playing games with the numbers. The entire tax reduction was not financed by additional debt, the problem is that the debt rose because it is always being rolled over and the interest rates have risen adding to the cost of rolling that debt. As we enter 2019, we will more likely now watch interest expenditures for the first time exceed that of military.
The Socialists never want to see taxes ever reduced and they always want to see the national debt increase without end. They refuse to look at the economics behind their Marxist philosophy and they then blame the people as they do in France calling them thugs when their tax burden simply increases without end reducing the standard of living for the middle class. I have stated many times, the very idea of Socialism violates the First Amendment freedom of religion for the tax rates are greater than the 10% advocated in the Bible and it violates the Ten Commandments which forbid coveting what others have. Perhaps one day the lawyers will wake up and actually protect the people and do what their oath was intended – file a major class action lawsuit against the government and socialism as a violation of the freedom or religion.
I would like first to thank u for all the good information u give to us
i have just a question : why do u write the fed need to increase rates to save the us pensionneers
Not realy clear for me ( and maybe a lot of people)
Thanks again and i wish u a wonderful 2019 year !
regards
T
ANSWER: The entire problem of lowering interest rates to “stimulate” the economy demonstrates that central banks cannot really manage anything. This theory is based upon the idea that if rates are cheap then you will borrow. They fail to even understand HOW the economy functions. The stock market and the economy has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates TWICE in history. If you BELIEVE the market will double you will pay 20% interest for a year. If you do not BELIEVE the market will rise at all, you will not borrow at 1%.
Pension funds were based upon the idea that at 8% you double your money in less than 10 years compounded. The system of a pension cannot function at interest rates of 1-3%. This is why states are raising taxes and going broke. They have to make up the losses on investments. Then throw in the corruption of governments. They directed pensions to be “conservative” and thus must own typically more than 50% government bonds up to 85% generally and some are at 100% like Social Security. The lower rates on government bonds, the greater the losses and thus taxes must be raised to compensate for state pensions.
Then, so many funds ran into Emerging Markets to try to compensate for the losses on government bond holdings. Spanish banks ran into Turkish debt which they assumed would become a member of the Eurozone. Turkey was one of the first members of the Council of Europe in 1949, and it became an associate member of the EEC in 1963, joined the EU Customs Union in 1995 and started accession negotiations with the European Union in 2005. However, ever since Erdogan, all negotiations with Turkey to join the EU came to an end in 2017.
Therefore, the Fed realizes that the next crisis is a pension crisis and they need to raise rates to help try to bail out the pension funds. They will not be able to raise the rates fast enough to avoid the crisis coming very rapidly which will contribute to raising tax rates and further suppressing economic growth into the future
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your analysis is really remarkable. When the Dow was making new highs in October you said it was not breaking out. Then you said it would correct to retest the monthly support. You even warned that the bulk of the decline was always before the holiday as fears would grow for what would happen after the market reopened. You always get the highs and you even named the day of the low this week the week before. How can your arrays do this? I know that they do. My question is have you put any effort into discovering why cycles work in the first place?
HD
ANSWER: That is a question I get often and it seems to me to be up there with is there God and what is the meaning of life? All I can say is the foundation of EVERYTHING is a cycle. Here is how sound travels known as the Doppler effect.
Sunlight also travels in waves. Change the frequency and you get a different effect. There is a cycle to absolutely everything around us. The Arrays are composed of a correlation of 72 individual models. Then there is a global correlation to the frequencies of all other markets. So there is not a single cycle that you can reverse-engineer from an array. It just does not work that way. We simply do cycles differently than most people in the cyclical analysis arena.
So why do they work? Perhaps that is just the key to the universe itself. The earth travels around the universe and reaches the same spot once every 25,800 years. We also are born, we live, and then we die – the cycle of life. Then at the core of everything lies the fractal design within nature. It is more than just a Mandelbrot Set. We have children who are copies our ourselves taking bits of both parent’s DNA. That is the process of cyclical reproduction by self-referral.
Then there is the Lorenz Stange Attractor which was the fascinating cyclical behavior of weather systems, which of course are ignored by the Global Warming people. In effect, they are no different from the people who executed others who dared to say the earth was round instead of flat.
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