Today, prior to a MAGA Rally in Tampa Florida, President Trump will sign his administration’s first major Education Policy bill at Tampa Bay Technical High School and deliver remarks on the ongoing vocational/technical workforce development program.
The bill received bipartisan support in Congress and will allot $1B in grants to students receiving vocational and technical skills training to aid workforce development in the U.S. Anticipated start time 6:10pm EST
For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years…. Then came the era of Trump.
More than two years ago CTH began discussing the ramifications to a new emphasis on the economy outlined as a possibility of candidate Donald Trump’s economic policy outlook. Within the overall discussion we walked through the anticipated changes possible if A.) Trump won the election, and B.) Trump began instituting Main Street economic policy ahead of Wall Street policy (the past 30+ years).
We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of policy shifted. CTH outlined statistical and measurable KPI’s that would become visible in the space between the policy shifts.
Part of those discussions focused on energy costs, product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis (actual outcomes), before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q2 of 2018, which is April-June 2018. Well:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just release their second quarter analysis of wage and benefit rates for American workers. –SEE HERE– This is only the beginning of what is to come:
Overall wage rate growth in Q2 now at 2.8% year-over-year. That is great news. However, the better news is the red emphasis, White and Blue Collar middle-class wage rate growth is well over 3%. The wage growth is broad-based amid almost all sectors. [Trucking and transportation at 3.4% (Table 8)]
As the wage rate increases, and as the economy expands, the governmental dependency model is reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improve.
More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare/social service programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar – the saved sum is doubled. That is how the SSI and safety net programs are saved under President Trump.
When you elevate your economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional.
As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.
The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street. They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.
The investing class economy, ie. another name for a ‘service-driven economy’, has been the only source of historic reference for approximately three decades. These talking heads convinced themselves that a “service driven economy” was the ONLY economy ever possible for the U.S. in the future.
Back in January 2017 Deutsche Bank began thinking about it, applying new models, trying to conceptualize and quantify MAGAnomics, and trying to walk out the potential ramifications. They began talking about Trump doubling the U.S. GDP growth rate when all U.S. investment groups couldn’t yet fathom the possibility.
It’s like waking up on Christmas morning every day to see the pontificating Fed struggling to quantify analysis of their surrounding reality based on flawed assumptions. They simply have no understanding of what happens within the new dimension.
Monetary policy, Fed control over the economy, is disconnected and will stay that way for approximately another 12-14 months, until Main Street regains full operational strength –and– economic parity is achieved.
As we have continued to share, CTH believes the paycheck-to-paycheck working middle-class are going to see a considerable rise in wages and standard of living. How high can wages rise?… that depends on the pressure; and right now the pressure is massive. I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see double digit increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors in several regions of the U.S.
Remember, as wages and benefits increase – millions of people are coming back into the labor market to take advantage of the income opportunities. The statistics on the invisible workforce varies, but there are millions of people taking on new jobs in this economy and the participation rate is growing.
Winnamins. We’ll need lots of them…
Forget minimum wage laws, they are inconsequential conversations when measured against the reality of how quickly wages rise in a free, fair, unregulated and growing economy.
Seriously, with full measure of optimism and appreciation – and tears of thankfulness that we are alive to experience it – these are exceptional times.
President Trump sets the 2018 Mid-Term priority. Excellent. “I don’t care what the political ramifications are.” … “Border Security is National Security, and National Security is the long-term viability of our Country.” Yes, indeed, yes it is.
Several days ago I noticed a well-connected Canadian business analyst, Manny Montenegrino, had a considerable assembly of facts, examples, data-points and details to support his proposition that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was intentionally collapsing his own economy.
After going through the evidence, weighing it against our own research, and looking closely at the political network of like-minded followers associating with PM Trudeau (mostly avowed Marxists), Montenegrino’s theory appears very solid:
On Tuesday June 12th, 2018, South Carolina MAGA congressional candidate Katie Arrington defeated incumbent Mark Sanford. On Friday night June 22nd, Mrs Arrington survived a deadly head-on collision in her vehicle; sustaining serious injuries and requiring multiple surgeries. On July 1st, Katie Arrington sent thanks and prayers from her hospital recovery room; on July 6th she was released from the Hospital.
Prayers answered. Approximately a month after surviving the deadly car crash, Katie Arrington is back on the campaign trail and meeting with President Trump in the White House. Awesome:
Many people supported candidate Trump for his fierce economic policy independence and willingness to call out the political Decepticons. You can put CTH support near the top of that list. At the financial heart of the UniParty in Washington DC is President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donohue, and his like-minded billionaire funders the Koch Brothers.
The U.S. CoC and Koch Brothers have a collective financial and political agenda that is antithetical to the U.S. Middle Class. They support open borders; lax immigration enforcement; common core educational standards; and healthcare programs that enhance their business portfolio. The GOPe wing of the UniParty is their influence-playground.
We knew there would come a time when President Donald Trump would firmly grip the reins of the Republican party and shake loose all of the Decepticons. Eventually, this Wall Street/Globalist usurping crew was going to need to be laid naked before their enemies.
Thank you President Trump !
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Jul 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
I have been warning that Global Warming is profitable for governments. They paid these academics $1 billion to come up with dire forecasts that ignore nature, cycles, and history, all to justify taxing people that will never actually impact anything nor balance their budgets. Canadian households in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia will be hit with more than $1,000 of carbon tax per year, while those in British Columbia, Quebec and Manitoba will pay around $650. In Canada, where it is often very cold, up to 10% of someone’s income is already going to cover energy costs. Politicians have discovered a new source of revenue and they are NOT about to listen to any evidence to the contrary. At the bug environmental conference in Paris, they outright DENIED any right of any speaker to put on a contrary view. This is all despite the fact that over 30,000 people have signed a petition against Global Warming, which has been ignored as usual. Any opposition is simply ignored or silenced. Why not, there is too much money on the table for governments to just ignore. Guess it will definitely now be cheaper to retire to the Caribbean. You won’t have to pay $1,000 a year to heat your home.
Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade
Re-Posted Jul 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The Independent reported that an EU Official said that Juncker used ‘‘brightly coloured, simple flashcards” to explain trade to Trump during the meeting. The EU official said ‘each card had at most three figures about a specific topic. While these remarks are deeply offensive, what they really reveal is how much EU officials prefer to promote propaganda as well and create their own FAKE NEWS to distract people from reality. It has been Europe that delayed the TTIP deal and made it completely unworkable. What they are NOT explaining to people is that there is another MAJOR PROBLEM with the EU structure being exposed by trade negotiations and why Britain who run as fast away as possible.
All 28 EU countries have a common external tariff, which is collected by the national customs authorities. This is then paid into the EU budget. This tariff produces around €20 billion euros per year. Now enters the great disparity of economics. Germany produces 25%+ of that tariff – some €5 billion. It was true that the goal of the EU was to eliminate tariffs and champion free trade among member states as takes place in the USA. This is where we get this slogan of the “single market” for the more than 500 million EU citizens.
That all sounds very nice. The dirt is always found swept under the rug. Creating a “single market” was beneficial primarily for Germany who has an export-economic model. Germany’s car business is its lifeblood. It survives by selling cars to the world. So naturally, the euro was a dream come true for Germany. The euro and single-market eliminated FOREX risk for its customers and German producers which would result in more sales. That was a win-win for Germany, as the sales pitch went.
However, the creation of a single government has introduced a lot more problems that nobody bothered to consider. Germany clearly dominates the foreign trade of the EU. It exports to the world beyond the EU. Without Germany, the EU would flounder and be saddled with trade deficits. However, now we introduce the EU government. Suddenly, Germany cannot conclude its own trade treaties outside the EU. Everything must be negotiated by Brussels through the customs union.
Now we begin to look beyond mere currency. I have warned that one-size does not fit all as people had expected would emerge from creating a federalized EU. The second largest player in the EU is France. Because of crazy unions and socialism that has dominated France, the French are not the bastion of production and instead have a perpetual foreign trade deficit. Its socialistic policies have produced chronic protectionist policy that results in higher wages and higher costs of production that are simply uncompetitive even within the EU. Therefore, France is always at odds with Germany when it comes to trade deals for the EU.
In actual negotiations under the Obama Administration on the TTIP deal with the EU, the process dragged on from 2013 to 2017. Each of the 28 member states had their own protectionist issues. This delayed negotiations endlessly and it demonstrated that the EU structure really did not work. Each country wanted its own deal, but it had to negotiate collectively. So France could prevent Germany and likewise other members could block France. This is the reality of what President Trump walked into. The audacity that Juncker had to explain trade to Trump with flash cards was probably the most arrogant statement I have ever read from a government that is clueless. Trying to negotiate trade with the EU when its own 28 member states fight with each other is impossible. Already, Trump offered to eliminate all tariffs. Germany licked its lips. France said NO WAY!!!! Who needs the flashcards?
The only possible tactic that Trump could take to break this deadlock was to threaten wholesale tariffs. The Europe-wide tariffs were the only possible way to deal with the situation that probably still will not lead to some universal commitment to real free trade on either side of the Atlantic. It is Europe that is burdened with protectionism that has for decades put up a significant renaissance against free trade.
Trump’s favorite slogan, “America First,” has gained all the headlines and people PRESUME he is starting some protectionist war. In reality, there is NO free trade whatsoever and this issue of trade is like someone who punches you in the face, but the police charge you with assault for hitting the person in retaliation and ignores any evidence that they hit you first. TTIP was a complex mess and by no means would it actually create free trade. It was all about protectionism simply labeled free trade. The EU structure is hopeless. It wants to pretend it is a “single market” but it cannot negotiate any trade deal because it is 28 members who have to unanimously agree and that took 4 years to reach TTIP and a complete mess.
Of course, the media generally at large just like to bash Trump. Why bother explaining the real nightmare of tariffs and duties which are merely tariffs in sheep’s clothing.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption
Re-Posted Jul 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,
President Trump is claiming that he has come up with health care programs for employees that have lowered the cost below Obamacare. Do you think this is a true statement? Trump also claims he is coming up with even lower health care costs. Amazon, JPMorgan and Warren Buffet are creating healthcare services for their companies that will lower their company costs. Do you see that health care costs are being disrupted and will go down overall in the future?
Thank you for your comment.
ANSWER: Obamacare was done for the hospitals so they would not have to hand out free care to illegal aliens. The Clintons made student loans not dischargeable for banks. It just seems like the socialists can always ben bought. That is probably why the HATE Trump so much.
There is no question that healthcare costs can be reduced by 50% or more. They have risen far more than anyt5hing else in the economy. During the 1980s, we provided health care to employees and their entire family. The cost was perhaps $3,000 a year. It is nothing more than a giant money-laundering machine. My insurance doubled under Obamacare laws and my coverage declined. If we stop the corruption of buying politicians, we could actually be so much better off. This is one reason they are so intent upon getting rid of Trump. They do not like it when they dod not own the politicians. Trump says some things that are off-color, but at the same time, you at least know how he thinks. That is still better than someone who lies to your face and then stabs you in the back