Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
International tourism has plunged it looks like coming in at around 80% by the end of the year. The UN World Tourism Organisation says it will drop at least 60%. The result of this has contributed to what we see as unemployment over 300 million worldwide. This collapse in tourism is 100% post-April 2020. This is going to contribute greatly to rising civil unrest next year globally. The collapse in tourism has already put millions of workers out of work. Those economies that have a high reliance on tourism like Greece and Thailand will suffer a significant decline in their GDP. Thailand, for example, will see a fall beyond 90% for the year’s total numbers.
Just from tourism which composes of airlines, hotels, travel agents, and restaurants, we are estimating a loss on a global scale between 100 to 120 million tourism jobs at risk of being lost permanently. It has been international tourism that has been one of the main engines of the global economy which not only accounts for roughly 7% of all international trade, it has helped to create world peace by exposing people to all cultures. Global tourism has also contributed to the aviation industry, which has simultaneously dropped sharply thanks to this deliberate global lockdown. Tourism has been responsible for creating direct and indirect jobs, when looked at closely, actually has accounted for 1 out of 10 of ALL jobs worldwide.
After discussing with REAL SOURCES, the very proposal that lockdowns may be needed to save the planet since they have been able to reduce CO2 but cutting off international travel as well as commuting. This has been a deliberate effort to use this virus which has NOT been any more lethal than the flu and has impacted the elderly as is the case with the flu to shut down the world economy and destroy its underpinnings to open the door for this Great Reset being pushed by Klau Schwab and his World Economic Forum.
When we look at American Airlines, for example, the two most important turning points will be the 1st quarter of 2021 and 2022. We would need a Quarterly closing back abobve $35.50 just to raise any hope of normalcy. Nevertheless, as long as this low holds, we may be in for a fight against these people who are using the virus to lockdown the world economy to reduce CO2. Nevertheless, the number of Directional Changes appear to be confined to 2021 with volatility starting to rise going into 2022.
We most certainly live in interesting times.