Category Economic Subjects

Feb 16 2022

January Wholesale PPI Inflation Doubles Economic Expectations, Diesel Fuel Jumps 9.4% in January Alone, 56.5% For Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 15, 2022 | Sundance | 265 Comments

Here we go folks. Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, the first wave of producer driven inflation has just been quantified.  The economic analysts are shocked, stunned, flabbergasted and surprised, because the January single month wholesale inflation of 1.0% is double what they expected.

The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released January price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 9.7% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Check out the single month wholesale price increases in these categories [Table 2]: Beef jumped 6.5% in January (43.9% for year). Gasoline jumped 1.9% in January, (53.9% for year).  Diesel fuel jumped 9.4% in January (56.5% for year). Cooking oil 4.7% in January (36.4% for year).  Home heating oil jumped 7.3% in January (47.4% for year).  Pasta jumped 3.0% in January (16.2% for year). Tires jumped 4.6% in January (9.0% for year). Wholesale cleaning supplies jumped 3.8% in January (34.9% for year).

Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming.  The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.

[Modified Table-A to remove noise]

Exactly as we suspected last month, the temporary drop in gasoline was the only reason December producer inflation was not MUCH higher.  However, that said, the BLS did revise December PPI inflation slightly higher putting it at 9.8%.  The cumulative costs of energy price increases continue to drive inflation in the entire system of goods production.

Year-over-year PPI for November (7.0%), December (7.0%) and now January (6.9%), shows the overall inflation in the wholesale supply chain is structurally here to stay.  We can expect much higher prices at retail for the foreseeable future.

Keep in mind that these figures are backward looking.  In my estimation the massive price increases the bureau has just quantified in January and the preceding months is the end of the first wave of massive inflation that CTH warned about last October.

“Do what you can do now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before.   Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses.   Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start. Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.” [October Warning]

The recent announcement of price increases we have discussed, from food producers specifically (Kraft-Heinz, Proctor and Gamble, etc.), in combination with massive fertilizer and farming costs for future yield, is the second wave that has yet to be quantified.  The second wave of retail inflation is only just beginning to arrive now and will extend throughout the spring/summer of 2022.

CNBC economic analyst Steve Liesman is struggling to reconcile the economic data from the last three months against his own prior claims that he could not/would not believe the economy and inflation were as bad as the BLS statistics reflect.   I do not like these elitist financial analysts who have zero connection to the Main Street economy.

Today, at the end of his remarks (very end of video below), showcasing just how disconnected these analysts are, Leisman shrugs off the massive inflation impact by saying consumers seem to be “taking it just fine.” WATCH:

No doofus, we are not taking it “just fine.”

At the end of these statistics are people really suffering and trying to figure out how to take care of their families when everything costs so much.  Working people who live paycheck to paycheck are being crushed by this Bidenflation, and most people are one small event away from a major checkbook crisis.   A broken car, a drop in hours worked, or an unexpected household expense can be extremely stressful right now.   No one is taking this “just fine“, regardless of how much we have prepared for it.

I do not like these analysts.

(Business Insider) – Producer prices in the U.S. jumped by much more than expected in the month of January, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand surged up by 1.0 percent in January after rising by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in December.

Economists had expected producer prices to increase by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

The sharp increase in producer prices was partly due to a substantial rebound in energy prices, which spiked by 2.5 percent in January after tumbling by 1.7 percent in December.

Food prices also showed a significant rebound, jumping by 1.6 percent in January after dipping by 0.3 percent in the previous month. (more)

Feb 15 2022

Schwab’s Admiration for Lenin


Armstrong Economics Blog/WEF Re-Posted Feb 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I can verify that this photo going around of Schwab with a statue of Lenin on his bookshelf is genuine. He really does have that in his office.

This is based upon first-hand knowledge, not speculation of rumor.

Let me explain something very important for those who do not know their Russian history. Following the 1917 October Revolution, the Bolsheviks/Communists relied upon the dogmas of Marx and Engels to create a new world of equality. They too preached that they would change all the existing ways and customs far beyond politics and economics. They attacked human nature, as the left is doing once again. Suddenly, the very notion of human morality that formed the very foundations of a healthy society was to be forever altered.

Churches were seized, and religion was abolished. Everything that was the foundation of humanity that we call conservatism today was attacked by the Communists in Russia. This today is unfolding with the woke mobs in the West. The Communists’ goal was to destroy the very fabric that binds society together to ensure that the people would remain as individuals and afraid to ban together to overthrow the government. They indeed destroyed the age-old moral values of people. You no longer smiled and said hello when passing a stranger. Religion had to be abolished, for you were to only trust in the government. God was rendered nothing more than a superhero in a comic book.

They drove a wedge between friends and all social relations between people, including the complete rejection of family. Children were taught the State was their real parent, and if their biological parents ever spoke against the State, they were to turn them in. They turned parents against their own children looking at them as a government informant. All this was proclaimed by Lenin to be “progress” for the advancement of society and the State.

Lenin indoctrinated his leading feminist lieutenant, Alexandra Kollontai (1872-1952), who became the first female commissar in the Soviet government. They took what the suffragettes were fighting for in the West as equal rights, and included that as part of the communist manifesto.  They equated marriage to slavery to divide even husband and wife, not just the children against the parents. Lenin, Schwab’s hero, wages an all-out war on “old and outdated” institutions like marriage and family, elevating the State as the dominant role. Instead of marriage, there would be more disposable “unions of affection and comradeship.” Lenin launched the “liberation” of the family and made divorce a natural step. Abortion on demand was brought in during 1920.

Alexandra Kollontai actually wrote: “The family is ceasing to be necessary either to its members or to the nation.” Capitalists, she said, “are well aware that the old type of family, where a woman is a slave and where the husband is responsible for the well-being of his wife and children, is the best weapon in the struggle to stifle the desire of the working class for freedom and to weaken the revolutionary spirit of the working man and working woman.”

The Bolsheviks insisted that women would have the right to vote, but that was meaningless when they eliminated all opposition and imposed the one-party rule. The liberation and equality of women’s right to equal wages became a joke for capitalism is based upon your freedom to pick your profession, whereas under communism, individualism is ignored. Women were quickly ghettoized into state-chosen professions; their wages went down with the freedom to decide their own futures.

The strategy behind destroying the family unit was that women without husbands could then be socialized much more easily. Destroying the family unit was critical to the success of communism. This is the man whose bust is on Schwab’s bookshelf — one of his mentors.

Feb 15 2022

Trudeau Authorizes Bank Accounts Frozen for Social Media Posts in Support of Freedom Protests – Canadian Civil Liberties Association Denounce Decision


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 14, 2022 | Sundance | 415 Comments

The triggering of an official invocation of the Canadian Emergency Measures Act to eliminate protests is stunning.  Using the Emergency Act to target individual citizens in Canada, and their bank accounts, is yet again another level of astonishing. RESOURCES:

♦ Emergency Act HERE ♦ Summary Justification of Act HERE

♦ Press Release HERE ♦ Finance Minister Statement HERE

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association has announced their opposition to the government declaration:

I am carefully reviewing the details of the authorization because according to the public statements by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, they have authorized banks, financial institutions and insurance carriers to suspend the accounts of Canadian citizens based on their social media postings.

Yes, you read that correctly.   Support of “blockades and/or occupations” are specifically noted.

Anyone in Canada (individual or business) who supports or “furthers” the Freedom Convoy or Freedom Protest on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter or any other social media platform, is a target to have their bank accounts frozen and insurance policies nullified.

But wait, it gets worse.

Not only are people subject to get their bank accounts frozen, but the decision also to freeze the accounts is entirely up to the reviewer, and the reviewer is protected by the government from civil liability for their decision.

“Support” and “affiliated with” are loosely defined, and as a result a guy delivering pizzas to an Ottawa “occupation” truckdriver is also running the risk of seeing his bank account frozen simply for providing the food.  I can see why the Canadian Civil Liberties Assocation would take issue with this declaration.

A banking employee who does not like the politics of a customer as revealed by a review of their social media postings, and merely “suspects” the account holder of supporting or furthering the action, can -without any liability- block the bank accounts of any customer or account holder; and they do not need to provide an explanation.

Review this statement carefully (emphasis mine):

Freeland …”the government is issuing an order with immediate effect, under the Emergencies Act, authorizing Canadian financial institutions to temporarily cease providing financial services where the institution suspects that an account is being used to further the illegal blockades and occupations. This order covers both personal and corporate accounts.

Third: we are directing Canadian financial institutions to review their relationships with anyone involved in the illegal blockades and report to the RCMP or CSIS.

As of today, a bank or other financial service provider will be able to immediately freeze or suspend an account of an individual or business affiliated with these illegal blockades without a court order. In doing so, they will be protected against civil liability.

Federal government institutions will have a new broad authority to share relevant information with banks and other financial service providers to ensure that we can all work together to put a stop to the funding of these illegal blockades.

This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades. We are today serving notice: if your truck is being used in these protests, your corporate accounts will be frozen. The insurance on your vehicle will be suspended. Send your semi-trailers home. The Canadian economy needs them to be doing legitimate work, not to be illegally making us all poorer.

We are announcing these measures after careful reflection. I spoke directly with the heads of Canadian banks and I would like to commend them for doing their part to uphold Canadian laws and Canadian democracy, and to protect our economy.” (more)

As you consider the term “illegal” in the paragraphs above, it is important to remember that the people who were hiding Anne Frank were breaking the law; and the people who killed Anne Frank were following the law.   As history tells us, laws in/of themselves are not always moral or correct.

Americans really need to pay attention to this example.  The Canadian government can force their citizens to take a medical procedure (Vaccination) in order to work, and if you protest that demand your bank accounts can be confiscated by the state.  How is communist China worse?

Today, the Canadian government became the tanks in this famous image:

Feb 15 2022

Remarkable, Trudeau Government Use Emergency Act to Seize Bank Accounts of Protestors, You Cannot Protest Government and Maintain a Bank Account in Canada


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 14, 2022 | Sundance | 923 Comments

In a major exhibition of raw power of the federal police state, the Canadian government announced today they have instructed banks, insurance companies and financial institutions to seize the accounts of any individual, group or business who are associated with political protest.

Using the Emergency War Measures Act, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has just declared war against his own people.  You cannot protest against government and still retain a bank account in Canada.  I suspect a great number of Canadians will quickly move their assets into foreign banks including in the United States.

The announcement came after a meeting of the cabinet according to Trudeau and the financial measures were outlined in detail by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Corporate, business and individual bank accounts will be frozen and locked, this extends to crowdfunding sites and even cryptocurrencies.  To support these measures the government has created federal protection from civil liability to all financial institutions, including insurance companies.

Banks will begin freezing and seizing the account assets of any person, group or organization they may arbitrarily suspect of being aligned with, active with, or supporting the freedom protest.  The government has specifically crafted the financial mechanisms so financial institution can use their discretion on who should be targeted.  There are no structured rules for the banks to follow.

Additionally, the insurance policies associated with any individual, trucker, group, business or corporation who is identified or suspected of participating in a protest against the Canadian government will be nullified at the discretion of the insurance carrier.  Again, civil liability protection provided against recourse from the targeted entity.

Crowdfunding groups will now be required to register with the Canadian government and the regulatory agency the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), the national financial intelligence agency within the Canadian government.  This way all funds raised by individuals or groups can be monitored, blocked and/or seized by the government if the beneficiary of the funding is defined as acting against the interests of the Trudeau administration, or protesting.

The seizures apply to any entity, including opposing political parties, who might dissent from the policy of the Trudeau government.  In essence, the Prime Minister’s office can freeze the bank accounts of his political opposition and, using the power within the Emergency Act, Trudeau provides himself immunity from any liability for that action.  Yes, this is all rather remarkable and never before fathomed in a “western democracy.”

“The illegal blockades have highlighted the fact that crowdfunding platforms, and some of the payment service providers they use, are not fully captured under the Proceeds of Crime and Terrorist Financing Act,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said.  “We are making these changes because we know that these platforms are being used to support illegal blockades and illegal activity which is damaging the Canadian economy.”

Canadian financial institutions can now temporarily cease providing financial services if the institution suspects an account is being used to further the illegal blockades and occupations, said Freeland.  “This order covers both personal and corporate accounts,” she said.  WATCH (prompted):

Feb 14 2022

Why the Jan 6 Event Must be Labelled an Insurrection only that Will Bar Trump from 2024


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Feb 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, you are right. Republican politicians have hated Trump and look to stab him in the back every chance they get. They do not like outsiders as you said. Mitch McConnel is the latest disgusting Republican calling January 6th a violent insurrection. It is really hopeless to expect anything from Republicans in DC. They are all only after their own power.

Keep up the great work

EY

ANSWER: Perhaps I need to explain the plot here why McConnel has joined the Democrats against his own party. You see it all hinges on their desperate attempt to call January 6th an insurrection. They are relying upon a sanction imposed on former politicians who supported the Southe during the Civil War. They passed the 14th Amendment on June 13th, 1866, which attributed federal rights to the states. But buried in there is Section 3 which reveals why you see Republicans who should be thrown out of office, not because they are against Trump, but because they are trying to prevent Trump from “draining the swamp” in 2024 in which both Washington politicians swim in together.

14th Amendment; Section 3

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

This January 6th investigation is determined to declare that this was a “violent insurrection” as now Mitch McConnel is doing to prevent Trump from running in 2024. These people are playing with fire for this will only result in the total collapse of any faith in Congress whatsoever for this is all about protecting their own deep pockets. Even criminally charging Trump does not prevent him from running for office any more than it stopped Nelson Mandella in South Africa. A felon can run for office. There is no bar from that since so many criminal prosecutions are for political agendas.

They are determined to call January 6th a “violent insurrection” despite the fact that the doors were opened for them and the FBI stated they did not seize guns from the intruders. There were government agents in the building who were dressed in black to hide their identity obviously accomplishing a separate agenda.  Then there was the planting of a pipebomb that had no detonator by some unknown person that was conveniently found. This was most likely a strategic plant most likely yet another government agent so they could call this violent all to fit a real conspiracy. I am NOT saying this as a Trump supporter but as an American. I am not so sure you will see Trump on the ballot in 2024. I think they will install DeSantis. This is a desperate plot to prevent Trump from running in 2024.

My point here is a Mitch McConnel is a back-stabbing politician who is making statements for the benefit of ALL politicians against the people. Here is a video from 2016 and career politicians everywhere were upset when Trump won. Suddenly, democracy became evil populism that might dethrone career politicians like Kerry and McConnel. This is why they and the press did absolutely everything to stop Trump from draining the swamp and they began an all-out campaign to try to turn the world against him.

I now get emails from people who voted for Biden now admitting that they understand what I was warning about from the outset. It was NEVER an election between Trump v Biden – it was Trump v World Economic Form and this entire agenda to end democracy just as they have successfully accomplished in Europe. The head of the EU never stands for election nor does the European Commission who makes the laws. European Parliament is there for a dog and pony show with zero power. These swamp creatures do not want someone elected by the people who will upset their feeding-trough. Representative government is NEVER one that is ever for the people throughout history.

John Kerry has come out many times against Trump calling him a populist who represents the lowest of the low in society. He paints Trump supporters are extreme-right and everything from Nazis to the criminals and prostitutes as in Les Misérables. He would love nothing more than to advance the UN to a one-world government. Authoritarian populism is evil, but a tyrannical dictatorship that is unelected is noble.

They think arresting everyone who was in the capitol building to make this an insurrection sending all those people to prison, is solely to prevent Trump from running in 2024 and to protect their own fiefdom, which is outright despicable.

more

Feb 14 2022

How Valentine’s Day Became a Lucrative Holiday


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Feb 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Some believe Valentine’s Day originated as a way to offset the Pagan holiday of Lupercalia, which History described as “a bloody, violent and sexually charged celebration awash with animal sacrifice, random matchmaking and coupling in the hopes of warding off evil spirits and infertility.” Pope Gelasius declared February 14 St. Valentine’s Day during the 5th century. The Catholic Church recognizes three different saints named Valentine or Valentinus, all who suffered horrific deaths in the name of religion. During the Middle Ages, people began to believe that bird mating season began on February 14. English poet Geoffrey Chaucer was the first to record St. Valentine’s Day as a day of romance in 1375 when he penned the poem “Parliament of Foules,” writing, “For this was sent on Seynt Valentyne’s [sic] day / Whan every foul cometh there [sic] to choose his mate.” Hence the phrase “love birds.”

In modern days, Valentine’s Day is an opportunity for businesses to use the rhetoric of pathos to convince people to spend money to express love. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects Americans to spend $23.9 billion on the holiday this year, an increase from last year’s $21.8 billion spent. Valentine’s Day shopping peaked in 2020, one blissful month before the depths of the pandemic began, with a record $27.8 billion spent. Around 53% of Americans state that they plan to celebrate the holiday, with 76% stating it’s important to spend this year due to the state of the pandemic. Romantic.

The average US consumer is expected to spend $175.41 per person, up from $164.76 in 2021. Candy (56%), greeting cards (40%), and flowers (37%) are the most popular gifts. Around 31% state they plan to go out this year, up from 24% in 2021, which should add $4.3 billion to the recovering hospitality sector. Around 22% said that they plan to purchase jewelry and the NRF predicts $6.2 billion will be spent, marking the highest amount spent on jewelry in the survey’s history. These figures only represent what will be spent in the US, but Valentine’s Day is celebrated by consumers across the world.

Feb 14 2022

US Household Debt Rises by $1 Trillion


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Feb 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Household debt in the US spiked to the highest level since 2007. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans accumulated an additional $1 trillion in debt, with the figure growing by $333 billion in Q4 alone.

Mortgage and auto loans are the main sources of debt for Americans. Home loan originations hit a record high last year thanks to low rates, and mortgage debt increased by $258 billion in Q4 to $10.94 trillion.

Balances on auto loans rose by $15 billion in Q4, and $84 billion over the course of the year. Around $734 billion is attributed to new auto loans in 2021 to a total of $1.46 in auto loan debt. The Fed noted this was the largest volume on record. The chip shortage and supply chain crisis have caused auto prices to spike by 20% on average. The current median monthly payment on a car loan is $418 per month.

Credit card debt also rose as well, increasing by $52 billion in Q4, marking the largest increase on record. On a positive note, card balances are $71 billion lower than they were at the end of 2019.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that high household debt hinders long-term GDP growth. “Our study found that a 5 percentage-point increase in the ratio of household debt to GDP over a three-year period forecasts a 1.25 percentage-point decline in inflation-adjusted growth three years in the future. Higher debt is associated with significantly higher unemployment up to four years ahead. And a 1 percentage point increase in debt raises the odds of a future banking crisis by about 1 percentage point. That’s a significant increase, when you consider that the probability of a crisis is 3.5 percent, even without any increase in debt,” the IMF stated in a report released in 2017. In the short-term, increased debt will provide a small boost to the nation. If inflation persists and people are required to take on more debt for essentials like transportation and shelter, the nation’s GDP will be at risk.

Feb 13 2022

Superbowl Ad Prices Reach All-Time High


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Feb 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. The biggest sporting event of the year in the US is also the most coveted advertising opportunity. Despite rising ad prices, NBC has managed to sell out all of its advertising space for the game.

A 30-second commercial could cost upward of $6.5 million, with some sources citing $7 million. This marks a 20% increase from when NBC hosted the game in 2018. When CBS hosted the game last year, the highest recorded price for a commercial was $5.6 million. CBS brought in additional revenue by requesting companies pay an extra $300,000 to be featured on their live stream. It is estimated that around 80 to 90 commercials will run during any given Super Bowl, providing a huge stream of revenue for the broadcaster.

According to SuperBowl-ads.com, the price of running a commercial during Superbowl I in 1966 was $37,500. Ad costs have continued to gain traction each year as viewership grows and the prestige of placing an ad in the Superbowl has become a highly desirable marketing venture. Sporting News has provided a price history of 30-second ads over the years:

2000       $2,100,000

2001       $2,200,000

2002       $2,200,000

2003       $2,200,000

2004       $2,302,200

2005       $2,400,000

2006       $2,500,000

2007       $2,385,365

2008       $2,699,963

2009       $2,999,960

2010       $2,954,010

2011       $3,100,000

2012       $3,500,000

2013       $3,800,000

2014       $4,000,000

2015       $4,250,000

2016       $4,500,000

2017       $5,000,000

2018       $5,200,000

2019       $5,300,000

2020       $5,600,000

2021       $5,500,000

2022       $6,500,000

Feb 12 2022

Tucker Carlson, The Government Need for Control is a Reaction to Their Fear


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 12, 2022 | Sundance | 132 Comments

Tucker Carlson used his segment on the Canadian Freedom Protests Friday night to emphasize a point we have made for many years.  The government need to control the truckers in Canada is a reaction to fear.

The administration of Justin Trudeau and also Joe Biden are fearful of the working class people the truckers represent.  Those who consider themselves elite are the few, we are the many. Those who live atop society, in politics or positions of influence and affluence, are becoming increasingly fearful.

Recent references are not limited to COVID lockdowns and arbitrary totalitarian rules put into place.  The way the government responded to the “yellow vest” movement in France; or the U.K. government efforts to fight Brexit; or the U.S. government response to Donald Trump’s election; these are all examples of those holding power being fearful of the us – a free people.   The elites are fearful, and they will lose.  WATCH:

Feb 12 2022

Prime Minister Trudeau Delivers Remarks to Bouncy House Attendees at Ottawa Protest


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 11, 2022 | Sundance | 538 Comments

Earlier this afternoon, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered remarks seemingly targeted to the kids in the bouncy houses at the Ottawa Protest.

Relying upon his feelings and grown-up ability to connect with a juvenile audience on serious events, the Canadian Prime Minister spoke very sternly to the children and media attendees.  The bouncy houses are closed, “it’s time to go home now.”  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/nKL0JktZmiQ

[Full Video Here]