Category Political Corruption

May 13 2022

INFLATION – RECESSION – RISING RATES RATHER THAN LOWER RATES


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted May 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I want to thank you so much for the WEC. Perhaps you will consider doing one that is streamed in the middle of this craziness. I have listened to many analysts. But you are head and shoulders above everyone. Only you called for declining economic growth, rising inflation, and rising interest rates in spite of a recession. I understand it is Socrates that puts this all together. But we really need you now.

Please, Please, Please!

WL

ANSWER: I will consider it. My days are full and I cannot even begin to explain everything that is coming in from sources around the world. The “Stickly” core inflation, which does not include food or energy, made its low perfectly on its 31.4-year decline from the highest yearly closing in 1979 to the bottom in 2010. This is really important to understand because while food and energy are rising faster, they filter over into the core inflation and are driving that higher at a faster pace. We are looking at everything rising, much as was the case during the 1980s. Even ticket prices are rising in sports.

I understand that people THINK that Paul Volcker conquered inflation by pushing interest rates to insane levels. Let’s get something straight — the high-interest rates did NOT stop the inflation. Volcker drove the value of the dollar higher and that produced DEFLATION, driving the British pound to $1.03 by 1985.

Raising rates does NOT stop inflation; it will only increase it when we are dealing with a SHORTAGE rather than an excessive demand boom. The same result will unfold with the rising dollar BECAUSE of the rising rates and that produces deflation, but we have the stupidity of those pulling the strings in the Biden Administration and Europe for climate change. They are in power now and want to destroy as much of the energy system as they can because they fear the election cycle will swing against them so they must destroy whatever they can right now.

Food shortages will get MUCH worse into 2023, and we will see power failures this summer in different parts of the US and Europe. There are people in the Biden Administration who simply want to destroy as much as possible in the energy sector in hopes that the Republicans can do nothing if they take back control.

May 13 2022

Pennsylvania GOP Primary Brings Out All The Club Moves


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance

Perhaps you’ve noticed. For the past two nights Fox News and a host of corporate allies have been doing a full-frontal attack against Pennsylvania Senate Candidate Kathy Barnette.

The club reaction appears to have been triggered by a GOP Trafalgar poll showing Kathy Barnette in a close second place (23.2%), surging ahead of David McCormick (21.6%) and right on the heels of Mehmet Oz (24.5%).  [Bartos 7.2%, Sands 6.5%]

In this outline I will explain the easily visible GOPe club moves without trying to support any particular candidate, that’s for Pennsylvania voters to decide.  However, once you understand the background play, it might help clarify what the Keystone state voters are witnessing.

BACKGROUND.  President Trump has endorsed Mehmet Oz.  However, many people in the MAGA base are stuggling with that endorsement because they just don’t like the guy and question the bonafides of his sudden, seemingly convenient, MAGA-mindedness.

Meanwhile, David McCormick is the GOPe candidate from the mold of the typically Wall Street Mitch McConnell tribe.

McCormick is the quintessential corporate republican, or what might be described as the ‘establishment’ party choice.  I would call McCormick the club candidate.

Kathy Barnette is the alternative favorite in the race for the MAGA base who just cannot bring themselves to support Oz.  Barnette is the outsider and carries a fierce independent streak that appeals to frustrated voters who have had enough of the nonsense.

As a result, the top three in the race break down into McCormick as the Club candidate, while Barnette and Oz are splitting the MAGA vote.  By my estimation the MAGA support looks like 60%(ish) Barnette and 40%(ish) Oz.  What is happening now in this race is very Karl Rove-ian.

The Club for Growth (CfG) is seemingly more aligned with David McCormick and needs to split the MAGA base, so they funnel money toward Barnette in order to disrupt and diminish the professional MAGA endorsements of Team Trump.

Seeing Mehmet Oz struggling to get support, and seeing a rise in the polling for Kathy Barnette, Fox News Sean Hannity started to attack Barnette on Wednesday with a full-throated ridiculing of her campaign.

Hannity labels Barnette as an ‘unelectable extremist’ with a history of controversial statements, positions and tweets.  After a 10-minute nasty attack segment, Sean Hannity then invites the previously scheduled Mehmet Oz to pile on.  The total Wednesday attack program lasted almost 30-minutes on prime-time television.

Then Thursday (6pm), corporate Fox News Shannon Bream announces David McCormick will appear tomorrow (Friday) on Special Reports segment for a promotional interview.   This makes sense because McCormick would be the corporate Fox News favorite republican in the mold of Marco Rubio.

During the 8pm hour (Tucker Carlson show) Fox News Corp then runs a promotional segment for Sean Hannity who says, “tune in at 9pm when we will go deeper into the controversial past of Kathy Barnette and expose her radical positions.”

As promoted at 9pm Hannity leads with another 15-minute attack against Barnette and then opens the floor to two other PA candidates, Jeff Bartos and Carla Sands, to continue the onslaught.

Destroying Barnette works for the agenda of Hannity (promoting Oz) and for the agenda of Corporate Fox News (promoting McCormick).

As a result, Kathy Barnette is taking fire from the GOPe Club, Corporate Fox News and the entirety of the Trump endorsement team which includes Sean Hannity and Ric Grennell.  Trump Inc supporting Oz, while Fox Inc is supporting McCormick.  This forms the gauntlet of the attack.

The beneficiary of this Rovian strategy is David McCormick.

Team McCormick is likely hopeful this onslaught will bring the destabilized Barnette wing of the MAGA base into his team; because the Barnette wing of the MAGA base will not support Mehmet Oz.

Both Oz and McCormick are sketchy to the ultra-MAGA base, but with McCormick the club alignment is what Mitch McConnell would call a “more approved” fit.

For the ultra-MAGA voter, with McCormick you get the openly Jeb Bush republican (Decepticon).

For the ultra-MAGA voter, with Mehmet Oz you get the closeted Mitt Romney democrat (RINO).

That’s why the majority of the ultra-MAGA voters were supporting Kathy Barnette in the first place, as an alternative to Oz.  That’s why Donald Trump endorsing Mehmet Oz was received with such disdain by the base.

The Republican Club (McCormick) and the Trump Club (Dr. Oz) are both trying to bring down Kathy Barnette and saying she can never win the general election in Pennsylvania.

Are they correct?  Well, that’s up to Pennsylvania voters to decide.  The pundits will all tell you the suburban women’s vote is the deciding factor in Pennsylvania politics.  Supposedly Dr Oz is more liked by that group of voters.  I have no idea.

This type of battle is what primary voting contests are all about.

My only purpose in this outline is to explain why McCormick wants to split MAGA (the move by Rove), and why Trump is trying to avoid a split MAGA vote (to avoid McCormick).

For those still torn over what to do, my own advice is:

♦ Vote your heart in the primary contest.

♦ Vote pragmatically in the general election contest.

Bottom line, VOTE!

May 13 2022

Marjorie Taylor Greene, Food Security is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

Earlier today ultra-MAGA representative Marjorie Taylor Greene delivered remarks about the failures of the Biden administration as they are reflected in the continual food security and pricing crisis.   I strongly recommend watching these brief remarks, very impressive.

MTG accurately identifies the origin of the current baby formula crisis, as an outcome of stress within the supply chain caused by government intervention into the overall system.  MTG then notes that FDA rules and regulations make supply interruptions worse.

Additionally, in the background of the federal DHS and HHS contracts for food products, including baby food/formula, most of those federal contracts contain a ‘first right‘ or ‘prioritized continuity‘ provision, creating a distribution outcome (via contractual mandate) where illegal aliens end up with preferential allocation.  WATCH (2:55 mins):

May 13 2022

J6 Committee Issues Subpoenas to Five House Republican Members


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The entire premise of the J6 committee is a farce.  The overwhelming majority of Americans fully understand it is a political exercise between Democrats in congress and their hired Lawfare allies.  The goal is to label their political opposition as extremists, block and/or tarnish President Trump and manufacture a false premise to advance the Democrat 2022 election goals.

Despite this reality the effort continues in order to fuel their far-left base and media allies.

Today, the House committee triggered subpoenas against House republican members.  The subpoenas were sent to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (U-DC), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Rep Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Mo Brooks (R-Ala.). All five of the house members had previously rejected investigators’ requests for voluntarily testimony.

The subpoena authority is likely, hopefully, to be challenged in court.  The premise of a House committee issuing subpoena’s to the political opposition of the same House membership appears to violate the function of government on many levels.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The Republican leader indicated he might not comply with the subpoena.

“My view on the committee has not changed,” said McCarthy, who added he had not yet seen the subpoena. “They’re not conducting a legitimate investigation. It seems as though they just want to go after their political opponents.”

The select committee demanded testimony from the five lawmakers in the final week of May.

Members of the select panel have wrestled for months with the question of how to handle their GOP colleagues. The Capitol riot committee’s chair, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), had previously doubted the wisdom of that subpoenaing lawmakers, as that would likely trigger a lengthy court fight unlikely to be resolved before in the current Congress.

But the select panel’s thinking appears to have changed, as every avenue of the probe led investigators toward fellow House members.

Some of the subpoena targets — and several other GOP lawmakers — were regularly in contact with Trump and the White House in the weeks leading up to Jan. 6. They helped amplify false claims about the integrity of the 2020 election and were among the earliest to call on colleagues to challenge the results.

But members were mindful that demanding testimony from lawmakers would potentially set a precedent. While House and Senate ethics committees have subpoenaed members and staff before, there’s little precedent for an investigative committee — particularly one mainly guided by the majority party — turning its subpoena powers on fellow members of the House.  (read more)

The committee is desperate to find something, anything, that can justify all of the time and expense they have been consuming in the effort.  The clock is running out fast and the pressure is building internally. As a target of their investigation, and as a recipient of one of these subpoenas’, I can assure readers of the ridiculousness of the people conducting the investigation fishing expedition.  It is nonsense.  All of it.

Take your pick of ultra-MAGA graphics, either one is appropriate…

Classic…

Modern…

May 13 2022

Senator Rand Paul Blocks Fast-Track Senate Vote for $40 Billion Additional Ukraine Funding


Posted originally on the conservative house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

Senator Rand Paul has blocked a fast-track senate vote on the additional $40 billion funding package created by Joe Biden and House Democrats.  Both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell approved a fast-track vote; however, senator Rand Paul (KY) stood defiant against their effort.

Despite the high-profile pressure from the two Senate leaders, Rand Paul refused to move and that means the Senate will have to take procedural steps to overcome his objection, which could take several days. “My oath of office is the US constitution not to any foreign nation and no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America,” Paul said in his remarks before objecting to moving to swift passage of the bill. “We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy.” WATCH:

The $40 billion supplemental spending bill for Ukraine is more than the total military budget of Russia.  The combined Ukraine aid packages now exceed $60 billion, more than the entire budget for the U.S. Dept of Homeland Security including border protection.

Rand Paul is on the right side of history with his position, and the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with him.   However, the opinion of the people is irrelevant to the Senate.   Even democrat Senator Chuck Schumer seemed to admit this point when he said Rand Paul’s position “was not the opinion of the overwhelming majority here,” meaning in the senate.  Schumer would have used other terms if he thought the American people agreed with him.  They don’t, and he knows it.

May 13 2022

Producer Price Inflation Continues Surging at 11 Percent, Annualized Processed Food Increases Now 34.8 Percent


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released April price data [Available Here] showing another 11.0% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

Last month when looking at internal economic activity that showed a contraction in consumer purchases of goods, we said pay attention to the service side of the ledger now.  Knowing people have stopped buying ‘stuff’, if people are starting to run out of money, they will cut back in the service sector (dining out, etc).

While the PPI focuses on prices, the PPI data for April shows exactly that service side contraction now taking place.  Wholesale inflation in goods is determined heavily by higher costs for raw materials and processing.  However, the rate of inflation within the service sector is more connected to what consumers can afford.   Modified Table-A, look at the April difference between goods (1.3%) and services (0.0%):

[Ex. The lawn company might pay 50% more for oil and gasoline (goods side), but they may not be able to increase the rate they charge you by 50% to mow the grass (service side).]

The major current production inflation in both goods and services is directly connected to the cost of energy.  Energy prices are embedded in every sector of the economy.  For “goods” higher electricity, heating/cooling and petroleum costs (packaging, materials, transportation, etc) are unavoidable and passed on to consumers. For “services,” individuals and companies raise their prices to compensate for increases in their own costs.  It is a cumulative inflation snowball.

In April the Total PPI of 0.5% was influenced by downward price pressure from the service side.   The price of final demand (wholesale) goods increased 1.3%.  The price of final demand (wholesale) services was 0.0%.  [Note: Wholesale trade services dropped by 0.5%]

Normally I would clean up TABLE-A “intermediate demand goods both processed and unprocessed.” However, in this month the entire field of data tells a very compelling story.

Note that Intermediate Demand Processed foodstuff prices grew at 2.9% in April.  Annualized that is a 34.8% increase in price.  This is the scale of future price increases we are likely to see at the supermarket.   That 35% rate of inflation for center store products is exactly what CTH predicted for the third wave of price increases.

The Intermediate Demand Unprocessed foodstuffs, increased in price by 2.5% in April, those foodstuffs are entering the wholesale market at a 30.0% annualized rate of inflation vs last year.

As an analogy, think of the difference between processed foodstuffs (center store and dairy) and unprocessed foodstuffs (fresh produce, meats) as you would normally think about them in the supermarket.   As you can see the processed product rate of inflation (34.8%) is higher than the non-processed (30.0%).  The difference is the additional costs associated with processing as a major result of energy prices.

What the producer price index at the wholesale level is telling us, is that inflation on consumable goods is still not yet at the apex.   For durable goods the prices are less volatile, but price pressures are still in the upward direction. The price of gasoline and transportation overall will be a big factor in current prices of highly consumable goods.   We cannot and will not start to climb out of the inflation spiral on goods until we see oil, gas and energy prices stabilize first.

On the service side, inflation is going to be determined by how long businesses and operators can continue operations without raising prices.  How long can a restaurant pay 30-to-35% more for their supplies, before those price increases need to show up on the menu?

Joe Biden sucks.

(WASHINGTON) – […] The producer price data captures inflation at an earlier stage of production and can sometimes signal where consumer prices are headed. It also feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index.

Thursday’s figures came just a day after the government released consumer price data for April, which showed that inflation leapt 8.3% last month from a year ago. That increase is down slightly from the four-decade high in March of 8.5%. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April from March, the smallest increase in eight months.

Still, there were plenty of signs in the consumer price report that inflation will remain stubbornly high, likely for the rest of this year and into 2023. Rents rose faster as many apartment buildings have lifted monthly payments for new tenants. Prices for airline tickets jumped by the most on records dating to 1963. And food prices continued to rise sharply.

The Federal Reserve has stepped up its fight against rampant price increases, lifting its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-point last week to a range of 0.75% and 1%. That increase is double its usual quarter-point hike. (read more)

May 13 2022

Diesel Fuel Shortage Sets Stage for Next Biden Created Crisis


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance

It has often been said that if you chase the global climate change ideology to its natural conclusion, we end up in communal groups sitting around a tepid campfire eating some form of sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other…  Prior to Joe Biden that prediction might have seemed like hyperbole. Now, not so much.

Indeed, the Green New Deal energy policy of Joe Biden creates massive downstream consequences.  Unfortunately, the White House doesn’t seem to care. The high prices and scarcity of critical goods are a feature, not a flaw, as they chase their climate friendly Build Back Better agenda.

Following the continuum of intended consequence, now we have diesel fuel shortages beginning to hit the U.S. economy; and with scarcity comes higher prices of an almost astronomical scale. “The national average price of diesel is now $5.54 per gallon, which is an increase of 22 cents from last week, which was when the most recent record was set. Data shows there’s no state that’s currently seeing diesel prices below $5.12 per gallon.” (LINK)

Making matters even worse is a drop in available inventory of diesel fuel which is about to become a crisis for the east coast of the U.S.  Some Truck Stop operators like Love’s and Pilot are already warning their big rig customers they may not have fuel for truckers.

[…] “Love’s is monitoring the fluid situation on the East Coast, we have experienced minimal outages during low traffic hours,” Oklahoma-based Love’s Travel Stops said in an emailed statement. “The company has no plans to restrict purchases of diesel.”

[…] Earlier on Wednesday, the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration said total inventories of distillates, which is mainly diesel fuel but also heating oil, fell last week to a 17-year low of 104 million barrels, which is 23% below normal.

On the East Coast, the situation is even worse. The EIA said distillate fuel oil inventories in the so-called PADD 1 district that covers the Northeastern states fell by 1.1 million barrels last week to just 21 million barrels, the lowest ever recorded in data going back to 1990.

Love’s truck stops, with some 550 locations across 41 states, also seemed to confirm reports on social media Wednesday that said Love’s and other truck stops such as Pilot were informing their fleet operators that shortages of diesel fuel on the East Coast may happen in the coming week at some stores. (read more)

Not only is the logistics of transportation contingent upon the use of diesel fuel for tractor trailer deliveries of essential goods, the other big users of diesel fuel are also farmers.

If it wasn’t challenging enough to triple the price farmers are paying for fertilizer this year, now the costs to operate the equipment they depend on has just doubled with the increases in diesel fuel.

“Some farmers are now even reporting farm diesel prices are higher than on-road diesel, which is typically not the case. … Certain areas of the country have seen shortages already and we expect that to continue. Supplies at New York Harbor–a hub for diesel distribution–are at a 30-year low,” says Meyer. “As such, the East Coast of the U.S. has been hit especially hard, resulting in diesel prices above $6.00 per gallon in that area.  (more)

ENERGY POLICY:

♦ West Coast ports that cannot handle container off-loads due to emission regulations.

♦ Nationwide fertilizer shortages and high prices.

♦ Massive increases in gasoline and diesel fuel costs.

♦ Limited shoreline refinery capacity due to federal regulations.

♦ Stunning increases in food costs at the grocery store.

… And what does the administration do against this backdrop?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration says it is canceling three oil and gas lease sales scheduled in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska, removing millions of acres from possible drilling as U.S. gas prices reach record highs.

The Interior Department announced the decision Wednesday night, citing a lack of industry interest in drilling off the Alaska coast and “conflicting court rulings” that have complicated drilling efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, where the bulk of U.S. offshore drilling takes place.

The decision likely means the Biden administration will not hold a lease sale for offshore drilling this year and comes as Interior appears set to let a mandatory five-year plan for offshore drilling expire next month.

[…] A federal appeals court in New Orleans, meanwhile, is considering a challenge to a moratorium on new federal leasing that Biden imposed soon after taking office in January 2021. Biden said the administration needed to consider the effect of new drilling on climate change and conduct proper environmental reviews.

Louisiana and 12 other states challenged Biden’s order, saying laws passed in response to the 1970s oil crisis require lease sales on federal lands and waters.

The Biden administration failed to “grapple with prior analyses” of the planned sales to give a valid reason for postponing or canceling them, Louisiana Deputy Solicitor General Joseph Scott St. John told a 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel this week.  The three-judge panel did not indicate when they will rule. (read more)

May 13 2022

Brilliant Satire Contrasts National Priorities of Joe Biden


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance

When the satire hits the central nerve of accuracy….

(READ HERE)

May 11 2022

Texas Rep Chip Roy Explodes on Floor After House Democrats Create $40 Billion Ukraine Spending Bill and Demand Immediate Vote


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 10, 2022 | sundance

May 11 2022

JoeBamanomics, 77 Percent of Americans Rate Economy as Poor, 23 Percent Say Good, 63% of Americans Buying Fewer Groceries


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance 

CNN conducted another poll to evaluate voter trends [pdf data here].  The results show a significant drop in American opinion of the economy with 77% rating the current status as “poor,” and 23% saying it’s “good.”  Additionally, 66% of people polled disapprove of the way Biden is handling the economy.

As CNN painfully noted: “Even within the Democratic Party, just 7 in 10 approve of Biden on the economy (71%) and helping the middle class (71%), considerably lower than the 86% of Democrats who approve of his performance overall. Fewer than half of Democrats say Biden has improved the nation’s economic standing (45%), down from 58% in December.” (article link)

In the video discussion, CNN Political Director David Chalian is just gobsmacked, stunned and amazed that 63% of these people are saying they are buying fewer groceries because stuff is just too expensive. WATCH:

.

Whenever voters put democrats in charge of the economy, it just sucks.

{ Full Poll Pdf HERE }