Tag Archives: China

Aug 5 2022

Geopolitical Nightmare


Armstrong Economics Blog/Geopolitical Re-Posted Aug 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

My mother died at 99. She had her wits about her til the end. Not everyone loses their mind. Henry Kissinger, I regard as the finest geopolitical analyst in history. That person in the Biden Administration who is the real president writing the scripts is only interested in climate change and the Great Reset. They pushed the sanctions against Russia, which have divided the world and ended the global economy. They are already preparing ways for us to eat bugs. Cricket powder is starting to show up in the food supply.

Meanwhile, there is absolutely no evidence that any sanction against a country has ever worked. Iran has been under sanctions for as long as I can remember. These morons are pushing the world into a serious geopolitical confrontation that will not end nicely. We have reached the 8.6-year turning point from the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution. This does not speak well for what we face in 2023. All I can say is I really hope the Democrats do not allow illegal aliens to vote. I fear that will spark a serious uprising, and then you will get a REAL insurrection — not a fake January 6th event to create publicity for the November 2022 election.

Aug 5 2022

AP Calls Arizona Governor Republican Primary for Kari Lake


Post originally on the conservative tree house on August 4, 2022 | Sundance

With ballots continuing to be counted in various counties around Arizona, specifically including the corrupt county of Maricopa, Republican candidate Kari Lake has extended her lead beyond the ability of Arizona election officials to remove it.  The Associated Press calls the race for Kari Lake.

PHOENIX (AP) — Kari Lake, a former news anchor who walked away from her journalism career and was embraced by Donald Trump and his staunch supporters, won the Republican primary for Arizona governor on Thursday.

Lake’s victory was a blow to the GOP establishment that lined up behind lawyer and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson in an attempt to push their party past the chaotic Trump era. Lake said she would not have certified President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and put false claims of election fraud at the center of her campaign.

“The MAGA movement rose up like their lives depended on it,” Lake said as she declared victory prematurely on Wednesday afternoon, a day before the race was called, using an acronym for Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. “And it proved that you can’t buy an election, at least not in Arizona. We the people rose up and spoke.”

Robson, who is married to one of Arizona’s richest men, largely self-funded her campaign. She called the 2020 election “unfair” but stopped short of calling it fraudulent and pushed for the GOP to look toward the future.

[…] Former Vice President Mike Pence, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all campaigned for Robson in the days before the election. (read more)

Aug 4 2022

Fertilizer Bans Lead to Food Scarcity


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Canada’s Trudeau is proposing to reduce fertilizer with the globalist goal of achieving zero emissions by 2030. Every indicator says that food scarcity is on the rise, and yet politicians are continually making it harder to farm. Trudeau’s plan entails a 30% reduction in fertilizer and is a direct threat to the food supply.

Fertilizer Canada believes this plan will begin hurting agriculture as soon as 2023. The agency believes that Canada may lose over 160 million metric tons of spring wheat, canola, and corn between 2023-2030 alone. Alberta Minister of Agriculture Nate Horner stated that the world is looking at Canada to increase food production amid scarcity and that the government is doing much more harm than good with this ban. “The world is looking for Canada to increase production and be a solution to global food shortages. The Federal government needs to display that they understand this. They owe it to our producers,” he stated.

Who else placed bans on fertilizer, and how did it go? Let’s look at Sri Lanka, which is currently in ruins. Disgraced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to transition to “organic” farming. In April 2022, the government banned synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and forced two million farmers to switch to organic farming. The plan failed and the downturn was swift. Rice production fell 20% in six months and continued to fall until the nation began importing rice for the first time in recent history.

The Rajapaksa Administration knew it was in serious trouble by 2021 and tried to offer farmers incentives for losses incurred. Now, over 86% of the population of Sri Lanka is food insecure. Countries looking to ban or reduce fertilizer must realize that the outcome will lead to less food. Should we let people starve to “save” the environment?

Aug 4 2022

The Inequality of the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have followed your comments on the future of inflation for the last five years at least since a friend attended your conference. I must say you have alone singlehandedly defeated every economic theory I have studied.

Since the start of this pandemic in 2020, most prominent neoliberal economic voices warned of the danger that the spending would create inflation. The U.S. spent more as a share of GDP than any major economy on this planet. There was a mix of direct payments to citizens, forgivable loans to small businesses, and then new pandemic-related federal spending. Yet the data showed inflation in the United Kingdom has hit nearly 10% and European inflation rates were higher. Every G7 nation had higher rates of inflation than the United States. This called into question that there was a possible disconnect between the rationale behind tightening U.S. monetary policy and the actual causes of ongoing inflation rises.

Your favorite economist, Larry Summers, from nearly the beginning of that fiscal response, warned this would trigger inflation. At first, he seemed correct. However, by the start of 2022, U.S. inflation did outpace the average for OECD nations. Yet here in 2022, inflation externally to the U.S. is now surpassing all U.S. levels, and the forecasts of the neoliberal economic thought are in open to doubt as to their outcome.

Your argument against the Quantity Theory of Money appears to be vindicated. Since the U.S. had printed much more money than other economies, then how was it possible that the U.S. would have the lowest inflation rates? The discussion in some circles has tried to explain that at first, the U.S. stimulus remained has been overshadowed by non-monetary factors such as shortages. That has been your expectation years in advance.

Now even wages have risen dramatically ever since the end of unemployment benefits to adjust for the rise in inflation. Yet employment has still not recovered for prime-age workers compared to 2019 levels.

I understand you are not interested in teaching at a university. Perhaps it is time for you to write a textbook to provide a better view of the complexity of the world economy. We are obviously in new territory.

Would you care to explain how inflation is significantly higher outside the United States despite the fact that the U.S. expanded its money supply greater than any other nation?

SK

ANSWER: I know this is a very complex question that most people, no fewer politicians, want to think about. Aside from COVID and the supply chain, Biden & the Green’s attack to end fossil fuels is just totally insane. The US was self-sufficient under Trump. Biden has done everything to undermine that and they have no idea what they are doing. They are making the US economy vulnerable. However, outside the USA, nations are NOT self-sufficient, and the further you move down the rank, the greater it is that their population is living hand to mouth.

Europe has no energy. This push by the Greens in Germany and Austria is just completely insane. Remove Putin in Russia, and you will get a hardline replacement who will see that this is the moment to take Europe, and Europe tried to invade Russia twice before. Cutting off the energy and the Greens have made Europe vulnerable, which the Neocons and NATO salivate over finally getting to use their toys.

Gasoline in Europe sells by the litre. One gallon = 3.7 liters. Since gasoline in Europe is about €2.07 Euros, now €7.82, which is now about $8.21 up to $10 a gallon compared to the US national average of $4.642.

The dramatically higher cost of energy in Europe is driving inflation substantially higher in Europe because it also filters over into the cost of transporting everything, right down to food. The inherent problem we always have is that we tend to judge everyone else by ourselves. The world is really different outside the United States. In Japan, the price of gasoline per gallon works out to ¥646.548. Japan, instead of taxing gasoline, the government subsidizes it by about ¥100 per gallon. Thus, the consumer pays about the same as an American.

The higher the fuel cost, the higher the inflation, at least until the Greens force everyone to ride bicycles, stop heating their homes in winter, and truckers revert back to horse and wagons.

While we have Klaus Schwab claiming inequality is a huge problem, and we need to return to his world of equality, he obviously never considered anyone outside of his own circle. The world is vast. Perhaps we should take all his wealth so he can be equal in wealth to a goat herder in Africa. I’m sure that would solve all the problems of the entire world.

Aug 4 2022

When Will the Baby Formula Shortage End?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It has been about a month since Abbott Laboratories reopened its formula plant in Michigan, but the US is still in desperate need of baby formula. The plant ceased operations in February after certain formulas were recalled for containing bacteria after infants became sick. Abbott had a huge 40% stake in the formula market within the US. The production plant was supposed to resume operations in June but this was pushed back a month due to flooding in the area. Certain states saw out-of-stock rates near 60% in July, but the national average currently sits at 30%.

The White House secured 17 Operation Fly Formula missions and imported enough powder to make 61 million bottles. The Defense Production Act was revoked to remove some tariffs, but this was a temporary fix. US consumers need enough formula for 65 million bottles per week. Experts now believe that the shortage will last into the fall months.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) failed to act in a prompt manner. Some of the red tape and regulations are to blame. FDA Commissioner Robert Califf testified in July, displacing blame from the FDA, and saying that they simply did not know. “No law requires manufacturers of these products to notify FDA when they become aware of a circumstance that could lead to a shortage of these products. Without this information, the Agency may have little or no insight as to when a major shortage may occur, preventing us from taking potential mitigation efforts until a crisis becomes apparent,” Califf said. He believed that formula availability to normalize in up to eight weeks.

An investigation shows that the FDA was first notified of formula contamination in December 2021. In fact, 128 complaints were filed between December 2021 and March 2022. The FDA certainly was aware of the contamination before they took action. The White House also took too long to respond as Biden did not invoke the Defense Production Act until May 2022, when 40% of formula was unavailable. This issue should have been solved months ago but persists due to government incompetence.

Aug 4 2022

BMW Warns Investors of Lower Production Forecast, Incoming Factory Orders Declining


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

Whenever we are discussing the intentionally managed decline of the western countries, it is important to remember the closely connected relationship between multinational corporations and the political leaders of those nations.  Specifically, their public-private connections as they run through the World Economic Forum assembly.

An intentionally managed decline of western economic activity should have a direct impact on the private corporations within those economies.  If the politicians are collectively going to stop energy development, raise energy prices (inflation), then use monetary policy to shrink the economy down to the level of energy available, we would normally think corporations were going to make less money.

That preceding paragraph is not controversial.  It simply explains exactly what is happening; that is the situation.  However, for some weird reason the system that evaluates corporate wealth is not responding negatively to the reality of the situation.

Traditionally, we would think destroying the economy would be against the interests of the multinational corporations who benefit from economic expansion.  However, in the era of subsidized and controlled economic management, I’m not so sure the corporations are stakeholders in economic growth.  Something is profoundly disconnected, or else the corporations would be raising hell with the politicians.

BERLIN, Aug 3 (Reuters) – BMW (BMWG.DE) lowered its output forecast and warned of a highly volatile second half on Wednesday, pinpointing supplies of energy in Europe and chips worldwide as the two crucial factors to the carmaker hitting full-year earnings targets.

New incoming orders were beginning to fall but order books remained filled for the next few months, chief executive Oliver Zipse said. (read more)

All of the basic indicators point in one direction.

Energy prices are squeezing consumers and paychecks. Energy driven inflation is high.  Rising housing costs, food costs, gasoline costs and energy costs have hit the consumer hard.  Credit card balances have jumped.  Consumer sales on non-essential items have dropped.  Factory activity around the world (Asia and Eurozone) is slowing or has stopped.  Durable goods inventories have climbed everywhere, without customers to purchase them.  All of these facets are happening exactly as we would expect.

However, the value of the companies negatively impacted by everything above, is not dropping at the same rate of the financial impact each company is incurring.  It’s as if the entire financial system is pretending that things are not as bad as they are.  This announcement from BMW is a good example of that.

Consider another example.  According to the employment data, and even accepting the data is skewed, somewhere around 3.9 million jobs restarted or were created in the first six months of this year.  Yet, despite that job growth the GDP declined -1.6% in the first quarter and -0.9% in the second.

How does an economy add almost 4 million jobs while simultaneously shrinking?

Either people are (1) less productive, or (2) working less hours, or (3) holding multiple jobs…. or a combination of the three.

Trying to filter through the economic noise to see beyond the horizon is becoming more difficult.

So, let’s bring this conversation down to Main Street.  What do you see around you?  What’s going on economically in your community?

Do you see lots of people in stores and shopping malls?

Do you see a lot of new purchases being made?

How are your family, friends and the people in your community being affected by this economy?

Aug 4 2022

Western Nation Economic Recession, Maersk Shipping Group Forecasts Weak Shipping Demand as Warehouses Fill with Unsold Durable Goods


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

A few months ago, amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH noted that if we were to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline.  That exact scenario is about to unfold.

Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world.  A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy.  The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.

Maersk is the international shipping company that delivers millions of containers of goods all around the world, mostly by ship.  They are warning that warehouses are full of previously delivered goods, unsold consumer durable goods, as retail sales have come to a standstill.

The amount of inventory in warehousing is so extreme, major wholesale and retail groups have run out of storage space (link).

COPENHAGEN, Aug 3 (Reuters) – Shipping group Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) expects global container demand to fall this year as sales of durable goods come to a “standstill”, leaving flat-screen TVs and furniture piling up in warehouses, the company said on Wednesday.

A surge in consumer demand and pandemic-related logjams holding up containers in key ports had boosted freight rates and profits in the shipping industry in recent quarters, yet the cost-of-living crisis has reversed that trend.

[…] “Sales of durable consumer goods have come to a standstill,” Chief Executive Soren Skou told journalists at the company’s headquarter in Copenhagen. “Consumers have bought what they need for now of new sofas, kitchens, flat screens and garden furniture.”

In the United States, the country’s largest warehouse market is already full as major U.S. retailers warn of slowing sales of the clothing, electronics, furniture and other goods.

Mearsk said the number of containers it had loaded on to ships fell by 7.4% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. (read more)

Keep in mind, South Korean factory output is now negative (electronics etc). European factory output is now negative (industrial equipment).  Japanese factory output has dropped dramatically, and U.S. factory output has stalled.   All of these issues overlay the statements by Maersk that shipping is not needed.

The western economies are contracting in response to the collective energy policies of the Build Back Better climate change agenda, and the high cost of energy that comes from stopping energy production.

Energy production in western nations has been slowed or stopped (Build Back Better).  Western nation inflation is being driven by higher energy costs as a result of less energy products being produced, oil, coal, gas.  Western banking groups have raised interest rates to slow down the economic engines to meet the drop in energy production.

All of this is being done with intent, purpose and control.  This is a managed decline.

Aug 4 2022

Sad News, Indiana Congresswoman Jackie Walorski and Two Staff Killed in Car Accident


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

Aug 4 2022

Kari Lake Pulls Ahead in Arizona, Trump-endorsed Candidates Run the Board


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

The Trump-endorsed candidates in Arizona are running the board; however, the corrupt, conniving and scheming UniParty constructs that have thoroughly infected the state election process still remain.

As it currently stands, Trump-endorsed Blake Masters appears to have easily won the GOP primary in the Senate race and will now face Mark Kelly.  The comprehensively corrupt Rusty Bowers, the Arizona state House speaker who was insistent upon retaining corruption as a political business model – and a favorite of the J6 committee in DC, has thankfully lost his bid for a state senate seat to Trump-endorsed David Farnsworth.

Additionally, Trump-endorsed Kari Lake (pictured above last night) has taken a sizable lead in Governor’s primary race over decepticon Mike Pence-endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson.

Meanwhile, Arizona voters have overwhelmingly selected Trump-endorsed Mark Finchem as their candidate for the secretary of state’s office.  Perhaps Finchem, if he succeeds in the general election, can finally fix the insufferable mess of Arizona elections.

Kari Lake’s victory, if certified, is a profound set-back for the two UniParty wings of the political club.

No doubt RNC Club Chairwoman Heavy McD (Ronna McDaniel) ate a few extra slices of red velvet cake for breakfast before throwing the coffee pot at the trembling concierge hiding behind the spa door.  For the Arizona contest, Ms Kari Lake raised about $3.8 million in mostly small dollar donations, while Ms. Taylor Robson -a billionaire club member- raised more than $18 million. The one thing Arizona voters and Heavy D would agree upon, is that Arizona rebels are revolting.

In the State of Florida, it was always Broward County that led to more than twenty years of constant eyerolls whenever an election cycle came around.  The issues with Broward County voting in the sunshine state were well documented, transparently corrupt and brutally obvious for decades.

Then newly elected Governor Ron DeSantis finally intervened, appointed state oversight, removed the corrupt Brenda Snipes (with her entire staff) as supervisor of elections, and ‘presto’ – just like that all of the Broward County issues mysteriously resolved.  In 2020 the full state reported election results by 10pm on election night.  Funny that.

The state of Arizona, specifically Maricopa and Pima counties, who seem to need days -if not weeks- to tally their votes, perhaps needing the assistance of DNC trained carrier pigeons handled by GOPe caretakers, has become the new Broward County.

Despite the intransigence of the GOP club, the insurgent MAGA victories continue….

VICTORIES INCLUDE:

John James (MI-10)

Tudor Dixon (MI Gov)

John Gibbs (MI-3 defeated impeachment R)

Blake Masters (AZ Senate)

Kari Lake (AZ-Gov)

Mark Finchem (AZ Sec State)

David Farnsworth (AZ- State Sen beats J6 Rusty Bowyers)

Eric Schmitt (MO Sen)

Aug 4 2022

Six Down, Fantastic Win in Michigan for John Gibbs


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance

Trump-impeacher Pete Meijer of western Michigan lost his reelection bid to Trump-endorsed John Gibbs, a new political candidate.  That brings the removal of the House Trump impeachment crew to six, with Washington State still counting votes amid their odd ranking “splitter” system designed to avoid head-to-head challenges.

John Gibbs is a strong testimonial to the renewed effort of the rebel alliance. Citizen led legislative representatives that carry a servant’s heart with the intent to represent America’s interests first. John Gibbs is a smart, eloquent and more importantly, a profoundly decent man, carrying the banner.

Gibbs win is being heralded as an ‘upset’, but truly it is more reflective is a voting base that’s had enough of the UniParty.  This is not a battle of miles gained, we are fighting for every inch; forced by the skewed corruption within our republic to fight like insurgents.  Indeed, this is an insurgency to save our republic.

While this modern American rebellion taking place, a grassroots commonsense insurgency led by the disruptor known as Donald Trump, all of the corrupt multinational corporations, Wall Street benefactors and federal institutions are doing everything in their power to fight it.

(Fox News) John Gibbs has defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer, R-MI, in the closely watched Republican primary for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, the Associated Press called just after 3 a.m. Wednesday.

The race pitted former President Donald Trump, who backed Gibbs, against one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him following the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol last year.

The former president endorsed Gibbs, a former software developer who served in the Trump administration as an acting assistant secretary in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

[…] Trump celebrated Gibbs’ victory in a post on Truth Social where he thanked his supporters. “Fantastic night in Michigan! Tudor Dixon will be a great Governor. John Gibbs WON with a big surge in the end. Not a good time for Impeachers – 7 down, 3 to go! Thank you Michigan!” he wrote in the post.

Just before AP officially called the race for Gibbs, Meijer conceded the primary contest. (read more)

Liz Cheney is toast.  I assume that is the #7 being counted by President Trump.

Now, we await the results from Washington State.