Business Bankruptcies on the Rise in the EU


Posted originally on Feb 20, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Bankruptcy

The latest Eurostat release on business registrations and bankruptcies in Q4 2025 is perhaps one of the most revealing datasets on the real state of the European economy, and it confirms precisely the type of slow deterioration in confidence that I have warned about for years regarding the EU’s policy direction.

On the surface, bureaucrats will point to the 0.5% quarterly increase in business registrations across the EU as a sign of resilience. Yet at the very same time, bankruptcy declarations rose by 2.5% compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Looking deeper into the sector data makes the situation even more concerning. Registrations increased most in information and communication (+6.4%) and industry (+4.9%), while sectors tied directly to consumer demand, such as trade and construction, showed declines. Meanwhile, bankruptcies surged in accommodation and food services (+8.6%), transport (+5.6%), and even information and communication (+7.9%).

When bankruptcies rise across 6 out of 8 sectors, that reflects declining economic confidence and tightening margins across the entire economy. It is far easier to start a business than it is to maintain one. Bureaucrats choose to look at business starts rather than bankruptcies.

The sharp rise in bankruptcies in hospitality and services is particularly telling given Europe’s inflation in energy, labor costs, and regulatory compliance. Small and mid-sized businesses cannot absorb these costs the way multinational corporations can. The result is a slow liquidation cycle beneath the surface of headline GDP numbers. Entrepreneurs are the first to react to declining confidence in future policy stability. When bankruptcies rise faster than new firm formation, capital becomes less confident in long-term profitability.

The sector divergence also reflects the deeper structural transformation underway in Europe. Digital and information sectors are still attracting registrations, while traditional consumer and service sectors face insolvency pressure. That is consistent with an economy being reshaped by regulation, energy policy, and declining industrial competitiveness.

Rising bankruptcies do not immediately show up in political narratives, but they erode the tax base, increase unemployment risk, and force governments into further intervention. That intervention historically leads to more regulation and taxation, which only accelerates the liquidation cycle.

The ECM has long warned that the 2026 period would mark rising volatility driven by declining confidence in government. Rising bankruptcies alongside only marginal business creation are not a healthy expansion phase. It is the early-stage warning that the private sector is under pressure while policymakers continue to insist that the system is stable.

Why the EU Needs War so Desperately


Posted originally on Feb 7, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

EU confrontyation with Russia

QUESTION: Marty, you said this is a perfect storm behind the metals between sovereign debt and war. I believe you said that the EU wants war with Russia or keeps up the appearance of war so they can keep the $350 billion they stole from Russia that included personal assets of Russians not all government assets. I think I remember that you also said Ukraine suspended all payment on its sovereign debt. Am I on the right track?

WP

EU seizing Russian Private Assets

ANSWER: Absolutely. At least 40% of the “Russian” assets seized by the EU are private assets like houses and yachts belonging to anyone who was just Russian. The EU is broke and they do not care about international law. They pretend that seizing private assets of Russian citizens is lawful when it is outright theft.

They are now stirring up hatred against Americans as well and they will use war to freeze any American private investments in the EU as well using war as the excuse. There is a large anti-American sentiment that they are fueling for they need to justify defaulting on American investors that are private assets as well. Europeans should get some assets out of the EU for they are desperate to save the bureaucracy – not the people. The EU is a failure. Listen to Merz speak at Davos and you will see the fragmentation unfolding. They are shutting down free speech fearing that the people will wise up and storm their Parliament.

Ukraine suspended payments on approximately $20 billion in international bonds in 2022, and bondholders agreed to a two-year payment freeze Kiev. In September 2024, Ukraine completed a restructuring of about $20.5 billion in international bonds with over 97% bondholder participation. The representative bondholder committee, comprised some of the world’s largest asset managers and other long-term investors in Ukraine.

The restructuring involved bondholders accepting a 37% write-off of their claims, with new bonds issued at reduced interest rates that will gradually increase over time. Only a fool would buy Ukrainian assets or debt. Any fund investing in Ukraine should be sold.

The Group of Creditors of Ukraine includes Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with observers including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Korea, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

These official creditors extended their debt service suspension until the end of March 2027 U.S. Department of the Treasury, while the private bondholders completed their restructuring in 2024.
My sources report that Ukraine also has smaller amounts owed to companies like Cargill Financial Services International, but refuses to provide a comprehensive list of all specific bondholders.

EU beating War Drums

The European Union is now moving forward rapidly with the issuance of stable coins through a consortium of major banks, aiming to create a euro-pegged stable coin called Qivalis, which is expected to launch in the second half of 2026. This initiative is part of a broader effort to regulate digital assets under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). It is also a way to issue debt. They hope with a euro-backed stabble coin, they will be able to sell this in Asia, Africa, and North America for as they beat the war drums,  you have to be out of your mind to buy euro debt.

The EU stable coin seems to be the backup for their unpopular digital euro, which most now see as 100% total control. They have pushed for making it criminal to buy anything with €1,000 euros in cash. They trust nobody and they are desperate for money. If you pay in cash, you are a criminal in their view. As the EU experiment is failing, they become desperate to retain power. They have transformed Europe from a free society to the modern version of USSR. This proves that the EU will not survive and they are desperate at this time. This is all about money. Everyone is guilty. You are just now a serf and you must prove where you got that money from to your new master.

Russia the Distraction 3

This the the oldest game in the book. When you have a domestic crisis, find an external enemy to blame. It’s like the kid who tells the teacher that they did the homework, but the cat ate it, and then an illegal migrant ate their cat.

Could Europe Defend Itself Without America?


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

NATO

Could Europe defend itself without America? In January 2026, NATO launched Operation Steadfast to answer that question. The operation is the largest exercise of the year, deploying around 10,000 troops from 11 member states across Central Europe. The plan involves the Allied Reaction Force, a rapid response element designed to test trans-Atlantic coordination in simulated high-intensity conflict conditions from land, air, sea, and cyber.

However, America is still assisting European NATO allies in carrying out Operation Steadfast through its financial backing. Greenland is not the reason for the exercise, as the plan was drafted last year. Brussels wishes for Europe to operate, vote, behave, and attack as a collective. Politicians claim broad “Europe-wide” threats from foreign nations to justify a stronger military alliance. Neocons believe they can eventually create a European army that will protect Brussels above all else.

The same politicians who push for European military power have been undermining capital through debt, regulation, and climate mandates that have destroyed the continent’s energy supply.

NATO was created during a period of high confidence in government following World War II. The alliance worked because the United States was economically dominant, politically unified, and willing to absorb the cost of global security. Europe, by contrast, redirected capital away from defense and into social spending, bureaucracy, and regulation.

Europe’s reliance on the United States through NATO delayed reform, encouraged dependency, and allowed politicians to sell the illusion that defense costs nothing. That illusion is now ending.

The ECM has been warning that the 2026–2032 window marks rising global conflict risk. Not because leaders want war, but because declining confidence removes the mechanisms that prevent it. Alliances fracture, miscalculations rise, and nations act in self-interest rather than collective stability. NATO is in the confidence erosion phase. Article 5 can only go forth if each member believes in the cause.

Estonia Demands EU-Wide Ban on Russian Veterans


Posted originally on Feb 2, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Kallas Zelensky

Estonia is urging an EU-wide ban on entry for Russian soldiers who have fought in Ukraine. Estonia has already imposed permanent entry bans on some Russian combatants, and now the idea is being discussed among EU foreign ministers as a unified bloc response to a post-war security landscape that most Europeans are only beginning to comprehend.

Neocon Kaja Kallas is one example of Estonia’s view of Russians. “Russia has close to one million combatants. They are mainly criminals. They are very dangerous people,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told reporters. “Europe is not ready for that.”

Europe permitted actual terrorists from the Middle East to enter its borders and seek asylum. Russia’s Putin implemented a draft; an entire generation of men has been sent to battle. Those who hold strong anti-Russian sentiment want to ensure that Russians permanently stay within Russia by banning an entire generation from migrating or seeking asylum.

“We need to protect European security, and we need to do it together,” Estonia’s Tsahkna said, adding: “There can be no path from Bucha to Brussels. This is the main message.”

Estonia has already imposed permanent entry bans on some Russian combatants, and now the idea is being discussed among EU foreign ministers as a unified bloc response. Kallas is championing the broad ban by claiming all Russians pose a threat to Europe’s existence. Identity politics is becoming policy.

If the EU begins banning individuals based on past association with an adversary state’s military, then Europe is redefining its own internal rules. Countless Russians have family ties to bordering Eastern European nations. Should they be punished for the mandatory draft? Kallas and others not only want to destroy Russia, but they also want to segregate Russians from Europeans.

When you label a class of people permanently undesirable because they served their country in a conflict, you create multigenerational resentment. We saw this after World War I with Germany. The attempt to morally and economically quarantine an entire defeated power did not produce peace. It produced rage that carried forward into the next cycle of war. You cannot humiliate one generation and expect the next to forget.

NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte Delivers Brutally Honest Message to Virtue Signaling Brussels


Posted originally on CTH on January 26, 2026 | Sundance 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered a direct reminder to the EU in Brussels.  Brushing aside criticism after Donald Trump published private messages between them and telling EU lawmakers, he did not mind the disclosure. Speaking directly to the EU nations at the European Parliament, Secretary Rutte defended Trump’s NATO record, warned Europe cannot defend itself alone, and rejected claims linking Greenland talks to Ukraine.

Rutte reminded the European assembly that without the United States there is “no way” for Europe to defend itself. WATCH:

.

Full EU MEETING VIDEO:

A Word of Warning Dealing with the EU


Posted originally on Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

EU Break up

QUESTION #1: Marty.

I just read your post on Europe being broke.  You say get out of all EU assets and they will screw Americans just like they are the Russians.

I have an apartment in downtown Athens that my aunt left to me.  I would guess value is around 250-300K euros.  I’m reluctant to sell in because taxes total 320 euros and utilities/fees another 400 euros yearly.

You’ve been writing about exiting European assets and I looked into selling but being a foreigner I feel realtors are trying to get me to sell for less than it was worth.

I know you have written that hard assets endure against changing currencies and governments.

A quick response would be greatly appreciated.

Alex

ANSWER: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot wrote on X that the EU decision means that “no one will decide in place of the Europeans the use of these funds.” Trump’s NSS document made the point clear that many EU governments are agreeing with that the EU is facing ‘civilisational erasure’ because of its immigration policies and ‘censorship of free speech.’ If you read the NSS carefully, you will see that it focus US relationships with European countries on a few nations with like-minded over these issues. This includes Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland were listed by the NSS as countries America should “work more with”, for the ultimate goal of “pulling them away from” the EU.

Belgium holds $183 billion at Euroclear. Its Prime Minister calls the competing EU plan “fundamentally wrong” and warns Russian litigation could “mean bankruptcy for Belgium.”

I am not concerned about property, but liquid assets that capital control can prevent from being wired. The EU will by no means survive. The actions of the EU and NATO are clearly about their own existence. Neither cares about Europe, the people, or the political member states. NATO is an expired cold war entity that should have been shut down. It’s ONLY purpose is war and to keep the money flowing they need to justify their existence by constantly claiming Russia wants to invade as if this is the days of Khrushchev when communism would defeat capitalism.

4 Horsemen Kushner Fink Witkoff Bessent

QUESTION #2: Larry Fink, Kushner and Bessent are all directly involved in Ukraine negotiations. Who is the 4th Horseman? Steve Witkoff?

GF

ANSWER #2: Yes. I would not invest 10 cents of my worst enemy in anything that they concoct. I warned them not to invest in Russia back in 1998. They did not listen. Soros lost $2 billion. Bessent the left. It’s always the same game. They think that they can control government for the perfect trade. I fear this is another huge loss in the making.

No right to Vote

QUESTION #3:

“I hear you, but it’s hard to comprehend how anyone could want war. I guess they think they and their posterity will be exempt from going to fight and the effects of war. They are willing to sacrifice other people’s lives. After dinner you pointed to my son and said that they would want to send him to fight. I have been looking for ways to avoid that from happening. I won’t allow it. Not for an unjust war.

There should be a law put in place that if you vote for war, that you and your posterity have to be the first to fight on the front lines.”

Franklin on Revolution

REPLY: This is problem. This is about retaining power. War is the only answer for the EU to retain the money and NATO to keep getting 5% of everyone’s GDP to line their pockets for salaries and pensions. The people should have the final say about war. NOT those who profit from war!

Get your liquid assets out of the EU.

They will impose capital controls and they view Trump as the enemy along side Putin.

Bulgaria Withdraws Budget After Protests


Posted originally on Dec 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Civil unrest continues as tens of thousands of Bulgarians took to the streets last month to protest government spending, or at least that is what the headlines would lead one to believe. The government released its 2026 budget proposal, which included higher taxes and increased social security contributions, sparking nationwide outrage led by youth. Now, Parliament is withdrawing the budget unanimously, as citizens demanded the right to be heard. Yet, the true nature of the protests surrounds the forced adoption of the euro.

Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov has been urged to resign; President Rumen Radev backed protesters while accusing violence as “mafia provocation.” Protestors set the entrance to the office of the European Commission on fire. Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone on January 1, 2026. The budget maxes out the 3% deficit as demanded by the European Commission. The people know that appeasing the European Commission is the main reason they want to increase taxes, and Bulgarians do not want to surrender their national identity to Brussels.

Image

But Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone as the 21st member despite political unrest. The euro was never created as a currency to enhance trade or economic efficiency. It was designed as a stepping stone toward federalizing Europe. Europe has always sought the benefits of a single currency without surrendering fiscal sovereignty. Brussels will accept Bulgaria even without a clear budget because it needs to feed a dying system.

Bulgaria will forego its sovereignty. Goodbye independent rate decisions. Bulgaria will not have a national currency to adjust during downturns. They will be forced into the one-size-fits-all monetary system centered around the top European economies that are on the decline. The EU is attempting to recruit Romania into its scheme as well. Then there is the matter of absorbing Ukraine into the mix. The centralized authority in Brussels has no plan for the sovereign debt crisis that awaits it next year going into 2028.

Chaebols and Youth Unemployment in South Korea


Posted originally on Oct 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

chaebols han quoc ty le phan tram dong gop gdp 1660560681

Nepal, Morocco, Madagascar, and now South Korea—the youth are not accepting economic hardships quietly. South Korea passed a “public intimidation law” that criminalizes threats or acts of crime against the general public with a penalty of 20 million won ($13,700) or five years imprisonment. New data has found that half of the suspects are in their 20s and 30s, according to ministry data obtained by Representative Song Seok-jun.

The most common motive noted in around one-third of cases is anger or resentment toward society. The law went into effect back in March and there have been over 70 cases of public intimidation. Authorities have arrested over 50 people, mostly men in their 20s. Crimes vary from online hate to bomb threats.

Seoul National University’s School of Public Health reported in May that 55% of adults in South Korea are living in a state of “prolonged emotional frustration,” and 70% reported that society is “fundamentally unfair.”

Youth unemployment in South Korea has reached 15%, with the national average sitting at 5%. Over 1.2 million young people are unemployed, despite South Korea having one of the highest rates of higher education. Working for a family-run conglomerate or a chaebol is seen as prestigious compared to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) where working conditions and pay are less desirable. SK, LG, Samsung, and Hyundai alone accounted for 40.8% of the national GDP in 2023. In fact, 84.3% of all GDP can be traced to 64 companies ,but they compose only 10% of available jobs.

“The figures make clear that the chaebols’ impact on the Korean economy cannot be easily disregarded. But the 64 chaebol’s share of employment is lower than their share of revenue, which means they need to more aggressively expand their hiring,” said Oh Il-seon, director of the Korea CXO Institute.

Over 70% of Koreans between 25 and 34 hold a college degree, which is 20 points higher than the OECD average. Studies show that only 24% of college graduates in South Korea earn more than those with a high school diploma. In contrast, 69% of college graduated in America are employed.

South Korean children begin training for a position at a chaebol. The market is saturated with educated, eligible employees. Housing and the overall cost of living have skyrocketed. The youth followed the playbook and lost the game. South Korea already has a plethora of political turmoil, but no one is more vocal or willing to cause unrest than the youth.

Why Britain Has Destroyed the English Bill of Rights & is Doomed


Posted originally on Sep 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The entire English Legal System has abandoned everything that once made Britain the beacon of human rights and liberty in the world. There is absolutely nothing left for Britain even to hold its head upright. This man, pretending to be a judge, ASSUMES what he said is racist, without acknowledging that the immigrants are NOT all of a particular race. Then he PRESUMES that those words instigated someone else to violence with ZERO evidence of that being the case at all. This is NOT the rule of law, and when that crumbles, the ONLY solution becomes revolution and violence, for there is no court of law that can ensure that society remains civilized.

Confucius

Perhaps this “judge” who is obviously violating the English Bill of Rights should turn to Confusus. His legal doctrines are far better than this nonsense. Even Jesus Christ addressed a gathering of Jews and told them: “And you shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.” Not in Britain. The truth will get you tax-free living in prison for 7 years.

Mill John Stuart Legal Persecution
Juy Nullification
Trial William Penn
Wm Penn Trial

The most famous trial where a jury stood up refusing to find the defendant guilty in the face of a corrupt government was that of William Penn  (1644-1718), the founder of Pennsylvania. Penn was the leader of the Quakers in London, and you can see why people fled to America. The sect was not recognized by the government and was forbidden to meet in any building for the purpose of worship. In 1670, William Penn held a worship service on a quiet street, which a peaceful group of fellow Quakers attended. Penn and another Quaker, William Mead, were arrested for disturbing the king’s peace and summoned to stand trial.

As the two men entered the courtroom, a bailiff ordered them to put their hats, which they had removed, back on their heads. When they complied, they were called forward and held in contempt of court for being in the courtroom with their hats on. Penn discovered that contempt of court is a personal prerogative of the judge and an infliction of punishment by a judge who becomes the legislator, jury, and sentencing judge.

Penn demanded to know what crime he was being charged with preaching – the cornerstone of Due Process. The judge refused to supply any information as to his crime and instead referred vaguely to common law. When Penn protested that he was entitled to a specific indictment (NOTICE), he was removed from the presence of the judge and jury and confined in an enclosed corner of the room known as the bale dock.

Penn could neither confront the witnesses who accused him of preaching to the Quakers nor ask them questions about their charges against him. Several witnesses testified that Penn had preached to a gathering, which included Mead, but one showed some hesitancy as to whether Mead had been present. The judge turned to Mead and questioned him directly. In effect, the judge became the prosecutor, as he asked Mead if he was guilty. Mead invoked the common-law privilege against self-incrimination, which provoked hostile comments from the judge. The court then sent Mead to join Penn in the bale dock out of the sight of the jury and witnesses.

Finally, after the testimony, the court concluded that the judge had instructed the jury to find the defendants guilty as charged, dictating what verdict he had expected. Penn tried to protest but was silenced and again sent out of the courtroom. The jury, for its part, proved sympathetic to the two defendants and refused the judge’s command to find the defendants guilty.

At this point, the judge became so enraged, as I would expect from Judge Juan Merchan, and sent the jury back to reconsider their verdict. When they returned with the same verdict, the court criticized the jury’s leader, Bushnell, and demanded “a verdict that the court will accept, and you shall be locked up without meat, drink, fire, and tobacco…We will have a verdict by the help of God or you will starve for it.”

After that, the jury was sent back three more times but returned with the same verdict. Finally, the jury refused to reconsider. The judge then fined each jury member forty marks and ordered them imprisoned until the fine was paid. Penn and Mead went to prison anyway, held in contempt for obeying the bailiff’s order that they put on their hats.

Later, the jury members won a writ of habeas corpus and were released from prison. Penn and Mead left England after their release from prison, having a taste of English justice, and sailed to America. (Earl Warren, “A Republic, If You Can Keep It”, p. 113-115). Thus, Pennsylvania was founded. This was the Bushel’s Case (1670) 124 E.R. 1006, a famous English decision on the role of juries and that they possessed the independence to decide the validity of the law being prosecuted.

Where is the Magna Carta Right to a Trial by Jury of Your Peers?

This guy is forced to plead guilty to a non-crime because if he dares go to trial and the Judge refuses to allow the jury to nullify this insane Starmmer law, then he will be given the maximum time of 7 years+ for demanding a fair trial.

Britain is No Longer a Free Society!

I will NEVER go to Britain ever again!

Interview: Insider Sources Reporting MASSIVE Global Event Imminent


Posted originally on Sep 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |