The end of the Investment Property Market in London is coming!


The Only Hope to Save Britain?

London

Landlords are joining together to challenge the Conservative’s (Tory) tax hike filing a suit in the high court against their tax increase on “buy-to-let” investment properties. One of the reason I have stated that Maggie Thatcher herself would have by now broke with the Conservatives and started her own third party is demonstrated by this abusive tax on property investment. The Conservatives are acting more like communists in London these days for this tax the Government introduced plans to prevent landlords offsetting mortgage interest costs against rental profits before calculating tax. So in other words, they are preventing the leverage in real estate which means this can only create a one-sided complete collapse.

Thatcher-Federal Europe

David Cameron is perhaps the WORST Conservative in British History. He is doing everything possible to remain in league with Brussels. Cameron’s comment after rigging the Scottish vote to ensure Scotland could not leave the UK was shocking. He said the vote settled the question for “for a generation” revealing his pro-government posture and anti-Democratic undertone. This posture goes all the way to agree with Brussels, and Cameron’s arrogance (video of his speech) was just stunning. His promise for a referendum to leave the EU was a bullshit ploy he never expected would actually stand a chance to win.

Now Cameron is scared to death and has the bankers trying to frighten everyone if they in fact left the EU Britain would collapse, which is insane since the bankers themselves will fall if they remain inside the EU with what is on the horizon. Cameron called on the bankers to claim is Scotland left the UK the bankers would all move to London, which was propaganda as well. EVERYTHING Maggie Warned about has come true under her own party. Thatcher was always clear that a single currency was all about the federalization of Europe through the back door. Cameron should what the debate back in 1990 on this issue,

Cameron-Merkel

These tax changes supported by Cameron on property in London demonstrate he is no Conservative. The “buy-to-let” tax on property eliminates interest expenditures in the property business unlike all other businesses, this is retroactive not limited in its application to just future sales but to ALL existing investment properties as well as. This demonstrates how Cameron is not qualified to head any economy for he is creating the S&L Crisis for Britain. As soon as you create a one-sided market, prices implode. He is creating a situation where there will be NO BID for such properties.

London-Destroyed

 

corbyn JeremyFarage-Nigel-1We will see Britain facing a tremendous political upheaval as we approach 2017. We have warned that a year-end closing for the pound below 147 will warn the currency is preparing to crash. We have additional year-end sell signals at 146.15 and 140.50. The ONLY POSSIBLE HOPE TO SAVE BRITAIN will be Nigel Farage. Both Labour and Conservatives have simply lost their minds.

Thank the U.S. Supreme Court for this!


Obamacare Sucking up to 10% of People’s Income

ObamaCareTax

 

The latest studies show that Obamacare is sucking up to 10% of people’s income. This is just not sustainable long-term and may not even be sustainable past 2017.

I still can’t believe they got away with this!


Clinton’s Gift to Bankers Made Student Loans the ONLY exception to Bankruptcy along side taxes

Bill-Hillary-shutterstock_13713790

QUESTION:  Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Since watching ‘The Forecaster’ I read your blog daily: thank you for all you have done to make sense out of the current phase of the economic cycle we are in.  Some call it the fourth turning or winter and it helps to see the bigger picture.
About the loans: how do we go about reversing this “…standard consumer fraud since Hillary is the one who supported the bankers in making student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy.”  How do we undo this new ruling?  Will we have to wait until the economy stops functioning, or is there a legal process to undo it.
Respectfully,

Laura

ANSWER: Excluding student loans from bankruptcy was the Clinton gift to the bankers. It was very detrimental for it encourages education to expand prices dramatically knowing there was now no practical check and balance. so it made education far worse.

The end-result will be a default, but it is unlikely that politicians will rise up in favor of students. The bankers pay for their elections so do not count on government for or by the people. That does not exist.

History says this will end very badly. We will see a rise in civil unrest and this can be the seed to a major political revolution down the road. The bankers converted student loans into debtor’s prison, which was outlawed because it was so abusive. There is no reasonable way out of this mess because the bankers bought Washington and if Clinton were to get in, forget it. She will NEVER admit the Clintons ever did anything wrong.

Do not invest in any hedge funds!


Hedge Funds Get It Wrong with Sovereign Loans & Puerto Rico

Carpetbaggers

The seriousness that is emerging in the hedge fund community is their tendency to become VULTURE FUNDS who look to lend money to sovereigns at excessively high rates of return that become no different than the carpetbaggers who sought to exploit the South following the Civil War. As an investor, you should stay away from hedge funds who think they can exploit various governments rather than invest. If they do not know how to invest to expand the economy, then they have no business handling anybody’s money to ruin the reputation of the industry. They will turn investors into the hated carpetbaggers and they risk turning society into the arms of authoritarian government justified in defaulting on such funds.

The hedge fund industry really began in 1985. The biggest hedge fund back then was $100 million. Unfortunately, too many hedge funds have lost their way and are becoming VULTURE FUNDS that risk the entire industry. We have to realize that 1985 was the start of the movement to create hedge funds for that was the year when everyone (myself included) returned all money to U.S. citizens and moved offshore. A normal pi cycle brings us to 2017, a year that is starting to look very bad. Hedge funds who have become VULTURE FUNDS will be defaulted upon by their clever antics of lending to governments. They falsely believe they have courts to back them up as they did in Argentina. What they fail to see is that they are playing with fire while running with scissors.

Puerto Rico is yet another example of hedge funds out of control. The cash-starved island managed to persuade some of the country’s biggest hedge funds to lend them more than $3 billion to keep the government afloat. They assumed they would get a great deal since they would be earning, in effect, a 20% return. Relying on the island’s Constitution, Puerto Rico was required to pay back its debt BEFORE almost any other bills, whether it was for employee salaries or retirees’ health care benefits. They assumed the law would be on their side and they could crush the island to extract a 20% annual return.

This sort of deal would have been criminal before 1980 when usury was capped below 10%; that was removed so Volcker could raise interest rates to stop an inflation he did not understand. Within just months of making this deal with the devil in the form of hedge funds, Puerto Rico ran out of money. The deal they cut with the hedge funds began to fall apart and has now set the stage for what is becoming an extraordinary political and financial fight over Puerto Rico’s future.

The question arising is whether Puerto Rico should be granted bankruptcy protection in a battle with VULTURE FUNDS who have done far more damage to further the image of the hated rich by supporting a return toward Marxism. Some of the people involved are the very people who lend money to Hillary and Bush, assuming they are buying the politicians as security for their exploits. The hedge funds have banned together and hired lobbyists to try to create laws to screw Puerto Rico for their gain. This is the very method they used against Argentina and Greece to exploit high-yielding returns in billions from the hardships they impose upon the people of those countries.

I highly advise anyone investing in these type of hedge funds to exit. This model will fail for the sovereign debt crisis will expand rapidly over the next two years and these funds will lose a fortune. They probably would love to see Donald Trump assassinated for his election would spell disaster for this business model when they cannot buy him.

The building Breakup of the EU!


Rising Separatist Movement in Corsica to Leave France & Riots Against Muslims

Corsica

 

On December 5th, 2015, youth clashed with police in a separatist protest. This is the youth uprising – the lost generation that Socialism has turned into economic slaves. Some 500 young people responded to the call for Independence from France. This is a building movement which has picked up speed following the turning point of the Economic Confidence Model on September 30th and violent protests began on October 2nd, 2015. Youths began throwing stones and shooting flare guns clashing with police two days after the ECM in an attack which targeted a docked French customs boat in Corsica. This new shift post-ECM is calling for independence whereas pre-ECM it was primarily a trend of rising violence on the island which was a wave of labour strife.

The rising trend toward independence in Corsica took a new turn as demonstrators ransacked a Muslim prayer hall and set fire to copies of the Koran on Christmas Day. A reader from Corsica reports


 

Hi Mr Armstrong,

The situation keeps evolving in France. And it seems still in tune with Corsica.

Now Corsican regional government made it cristal clear that it sees things differently than the french government. The assembly president stated that “corsican is the language of Corsica”, responding to the french government who insists “french was the language of the french republic”.

As i said before, since the french revolution, the French State does not make a clear distinction between nationality/culture and citizenship. So, to be a “good citizen” means to become culturally french. Corsican are now able to openly question the definition framed 224 years ago, when the first french constitution was written (1791).

As you stated that 30th of december was a key date for the political trend, i noted that, in France, a powerful debate occured this very day after a former french minister, Nadine Morano, quoted Charles De Gaulle as defining the French people as a “white and christian nation”. I told myself that this meant it would be the frame of the political cycle from now on, i.e. “who is french ?”. The answer being a cultural / pre 1789 answer.

Following the massacres in Paris, the government wants to modify the constitution. Curiously, the socialist president decided he would include the possibility for a french born citizen who has another nationality to lose the french one. This is triggering a further debate about multiple nationalities, thus leading to crisis around the definition of the french nationality (jus sanguinis, jus solis).

Yesterday, muslims rioters attacked firemen in ajaccio (Corsica). They use to do it in France everywhere for Christmas and New Year. The corsican crowd reaction has been this : 300 peoples went to the near mosque and ruined it while calling for killing all the muslims. The slogans were “Arabi for” (“Arabs out” in corsican) and a call for national corsican unity.

It seems that the French Revolution ideals are completely falling apart : rise in french nationalist sentiment, separatism on an ethnic base, both fueled by anti-muslim reactions.

A Fundamental Truth is that no government ever tells the truth!


What Is Said Publicly & Privately Differ – Here Comes 2017

yellen-Janet

QUESTION: Marty, you know which bank I am at. You also know the Fed has been going around warning banks that their models are wrong and they will not see a flight to quality being the 30 year bonds. Yet Yellen seems to also say she does not believe in inevitable cycles. They are saying one thing publicly and another behind the curtain. Are you sure they are not attending your conferences covertly?

ANSWER: Other central banks are open as to who they are when they attend, which did surprise me. I believe that there are people within the central banks who are looking at our work, especially since the Bank of China came out publicly and stated they are using capital flow analysis which we invented. Yellen’s statement is political:

I think it’s a myth that expansions die of old age. I do not think that they die of old age. So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that it’s one that has, that its days are numbered. But the economy does get hit by shocks, and they were both positive shocks and negative shocks.

She will not come out and say there is a business cycle for it is a presumption, as Larry Summers noted, that if you admit there is a cycle it creates one. People who have no trading experience cannot see the real forces behind the business cycle. Nevertheless, I would not take what she says publicly seriously. Just in October, the IMF began warning that the core G7 economies had experienced a very weak recovery which risked turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year, as reported in the Guardian. The IMF is warning that if the Fed raised rates, they will set off a new financial crisis because of other indebted countries.

Yellen’s statement is a public one and not one which should be taken seriously. Summers’ simply admits he is incapable of doing any forecasting. His original proposal to move interest rates negative demonstrates that the guy knows nothing about how the economy functions for all he looks at is the bankers. What about the savers or the elderly whose retirement he has destroyed? What about the pension funds he has wiped out? The high-yield hedge funds going belly-up is all part of this inability to forecast. They assume that the trend in motion will remain in motion and not die of old age.

Rediscovery-Of-Business-Cycle.jpg (427×627)

Paul Volcker wrote:

The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.

 

So do not take whatever Yellen says publicly very seriously. She cannot speak freely any more than you can (working for a bank). If you work in a bank or government, you cannot speak freely for whatever statement you make is attributed to the whole.

QE-r

The recovery is extremely weak. The Fed had to raise rates because Larry Summers is dead wrong. The Fed can see that negative interest rates have FAILED to work. Even QE has not worked in Japan or Europe. This alone proved that the idea of increasing money supply will cause hyperinflation. This totally misread what took place during the German hyperinflation. They failed to realize the new government previously defaulted of all debt which wiped out savings, banks, and pensions. They printed money because that was all that was left. It was the symptom rather than the cause.

USA Net Cap 1960-1990 Annotated

There is no CONFIDENCE and it is being killed with taxes. As we approach 2017, those in power have only sought to maintain their power. They are raising taxes and enforcing taxes to the point where they are reversing everything that made the world economy function post-World War II. It was the free flow of capital that reconstructed the world. This is the very thing that governments are shutting down for taxes. We are now officially driving in reverse.

Budget Crisis 2917

This is the government’s own forecast for the budget crisis. 2017 will be the year from hell all around the globe.

Oil and war a great mix!


Evil People in High Places? Or Just Coincidence?

Genie Oil & Gas

Former Vice President Cheney speaks on National Security Policy in WashingtonDick Cheney is best know for being the head of Halliburton who then became Vice President who moved his office directly in the White House and ran the government as the “shadow president” because Bush, Jr. couldn’t even figure out he was holding a book upside down. Cheney started the Iraq War and then made sure Haliburton ran the show. When Congress was going to investigate the conflict of interest, Halliburton resigned its American citizenship and moved to Dubai to end any investigation.

Howard S. Jonas (b 1956) graduated from Harvard in  1978. He understands the game and is founder of the Newark, New Jersey-based oil and gas group Genie Oil & Gas which owns leaseholds both in the USA and Israel for shale oil deposits. He is estimated to sit atop 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the U.S. and 40 billion barrels in Israel. Added together, these shale oil reserves actually make Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves.look minuscule.

Jonas has brought in to his Strategic Advisory Board to secure influence Dick Cheney “shadow president” of the USA, James Woolsey a neo-con former CIA Director under Bill Clinton, Bill Richardson is a former US Secretary of Energy, Jacob Lord Rothschild who is also a major investor in energy, Rupert Murdock who also is a major financier of the neo-conservative Weekly Standard of Bill Kristol, Larry Summers, who was US Treasury Secretary and helped Rubin draft the laws that deregulated US banks overturning Glass-Steagall, and Michael Steinhardt who is a major hedge fund manager and a serious philanthropic friend of Israel. Genie Energy was granted in 2013 the exclusive oil and gas exploration rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights by the Netanyahu government. The players are all in the game of a company most people have never heard of no less from Newark, New Jersey.

 

Golan_Heights_Map

Genie Energy, confirmed that it has discovered oil and gas in this occupied territory held by Israel on the Golan Heights, which is formally the territory of guess who – Syria. So while the pipeline issue we reported was the real reason behind Obama wanting to invade Syria, we now have to also add to this mix Israel. Genie Energy needed a very influential Strategic Advisory Board because this is occupied territory becoming to Syria. The announcement of the discovery took place October 11th, 2015. We also have Russia starting to bomb US trained forced destined to overthrow Syria. This was the announcement of Genie.

“Preliminary evidence from the exploratory wells drilled by its Afek subsidiary in Northern Israel confirms the existence of significant quantities of oil and gas within its exploratory license area,” Genie said in a statement, but added that it does not yet have sufficient evidence to determine whether this or any part of the resource can be “technically or economically produced.”

CRUDE-Y 12-24-2015

This entire cauldron in the Middle East is shaping up to be World War III but it is over energy. It all began right to the day of the Economic Confidence Model on September 30th, 2015. The public announcement of Genie was October 11th. That means the results were already known Behind the Curtain going into September 30th. These people need a war in their mind to get oil prices back up. If oil closes in the States above $35, then we are NOT getting that long-term bear market signal. We need a closing BELOW $32.20 to negate a bull market. A closing for 2015 ABOVE. 

This is not a Christmas message I cared to write. Oil will be VERY CRITICAL as a signal for 2016 because we also have the War Cycle moving higher into 2017.

Alternative money an interesting concept!


Alternative Currencies of the Great Depression

Worgl-Freigeld1

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, have you ever heard of a short lived Wörgl Experiment in Austria? It was shut down by the Austrian Central Bank they say because it was successful. Have you looked into this experiment they claim defied deflation and inflation?

LongBranchNJ-DepressionScrip

ANSWER: Yes. This was by no means an isolated instance. True, it was touted as the “Miracle of Wörgl” during the Great Depression. The very similar “experiment” took place in the United States with over 200 cities also issuing their own currency. You have to understand the dynamics of the period. This was the very age of AUSTERITY where the assumption was the collapse was a lack of confidence in government so they increased tax collection and cut spending unleashing both deflation and a dwindling money supply. This led many cities to create their own money due to the lack of money in circulation also impacted by hoarding.

The Wörgl Experiment began on July 31, 1932, the very month that the Dow Jones bottomed. The experiment involved issuing of “Certified Compensation Bills”, which was a form of local currency known as Scrip generally, or Freigeld. The monetary theories of the economist Silvio Gesell were applied by the town’s then-mayor, Michael Unterguggenberger. What differed with Gesell’s idea was that the currency would expire. Believe it or not, there are some government’s looking into currency which expires. Europe since World War II issued currency which expired roughly every 10 years. This forced people to bring out the old currency to be swapped and thus prevent hoarding.

The central part of Gesell’s idea was how to stop HOARDING of money. This is why FDR also confiscated gold. He too saw the problem of people hoarding money and not spending it. This is part of every economic decline. If there is no CONFIDENCE in the future, people save more. This is simply human.

Money-Assets

Nevertheless, the Wörgl Experiment resulted in a growth in employment largely because you had to use the money. This allowed the local government projects could all be completed, which many called a miracle for it appeared to defy the depression in the rest of the country. Inflation and deflation are also reputed to have been non-existent for the duration of the experiment. But this was simply the result of money expiring so there was no purpose in hoarding “money” shifting it back to “asset” appreciation as in a hyperinflation.

Despite the appearance of success, the Wörgl Experiment was terminated by the Austrian National Bank on the September 1, 1933.

Capital flows into the US are Coming!


The Move to America — the Great Capital Migration

CapInflow-USA

Something very interesting is unfolding. Included in the new year-end spending bill was a waiver of the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA), which had been implemented during the late 1980s when the Japanese were buying everything. They claimed to have focused on buying U.S. farmland, but it also applied to buying trophy U.S. property like Rockefeller Center in New York City.

This position has been reversed in the new year-end spending package. While some attribute this to a grand conspiracy, giving far more credit to those in Congress and in the White House than they deserve, our sources simply tell the plain story of lobbying to allow foreign buyers, who are supporting the real estate market in key areas, to purchase properties. Especially after London basically kicked every foreigner out of town by telling them their money was not welcomed, and with lightning speed they instantly turned to New York City.

High properties, even in Florida, are being sold to the Chinese largely in cash deals whereas Canadians are buying the greatest number of properties. The lobbying has been from the real estate and banking industry who see a market they want to service. Slipped into the $1.1 trillion spending measure, which was passed to avoid a government shutdown, were tax breaks for Americans that simultaneously treats foreign pension funds the same as Americans. There has been lobbying from foreign pension funds because they see no hope in Europe and have been pleading for permission to enter the U.S. market in a big way. For the first time this provision waives the tax imposed on foreign investors under FIRPTA.

10-bills

This is perfectly in line with our cyclical models because the DOLLAR has become the world reserve currency for real and by default. The dollar bears, who keep claiming it will crash, are looking only domestically. They have no peripheral vision and thus remain blind to the trend globally. They may sell stocks, assuming lower oil means more deflation. What if they are wrong?

A “collapse” in the asset markets is likely in the first quarter of 2016.


Commodity-Based Countries to Liquidate Wealth Funds & Gold

Stop-Loss

QUESTION: Marty, at the Berlin cocktail party you said we may yet see gold sales from oil producing countries if oil breaks your yearly number of $35 for year end and gold closes below 1044 or so I think. You said gold could then reach that $——- level you mentioned in the conference. It looks like that is happening. Socrates on the monthly level is now warning of a possible Waterfall Event in gold. Are we seeing the risk of official gold sales from Russia, Norway and Saudi Arabia?

Thanks for a spectacular conference.

PD

ANSWER: Yes. We got the rate hike. A stronger dollar is still on the agenda, and yes, I warned we could get that waterfall in commodities for the first quarter, particularly in oil. The continuing collapse of oil prices under $35 for year-end will bring tremendous distress to several countries. Cash-strapped governments are looking at substantially lower revenue from oil and they are likely to liquidate positions in gold and in their sovereign wealth funds. They will draw down cash from gold and a portion of their funds to close budget gaps.

Gold produces zero income and costs money to store while the yields on wealth funds currently produce way too little to compensate for the deficits. This crisis, in turn, could cause several nations to liquidate portions of their funds to sell off gold to raise cash. It would appear that the selling will be in debt markets more so than stocks. They will focus on declining asset values like gold and bonds more so than U.S. equities. When they get into a real jam, it becomes whatever they can sell to raise cash irrespective of the fundamentals.