Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.
Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.
Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.
Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.
War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.
Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.
Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.
Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.
Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.
When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.
Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.
Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.
Posted originally on May 21, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Merrick Garland, Attorney General, is truly a national disgrace. The U.S. Department of Justice has filed a suit against Oklahoma today over a state law that seeks to impose criminal penalties on those living in the state illegally. The law makes illegal aliens subject to two years in prison for living in the state without legal immigration status. Garland is trying to make sure illegal aliens are here for the 2024 election so they can continue their coup and deprive the “rich,” whom they define as people with jobs. They claim they they will not raise taxes on income of $400,000 or less, but they fail to define their definition that this is HOUSEHOLD income. If you have two children still living at home and all four of you combined exceed $400,000, you are the hated rich whom the Democrats want to exploit all for people who produce nothing and want a free ride.
Similar laws passed in Texas and Iowa are already facing challenges from Garland, who has the audacity to tell Congress that ISs are not necessary for voting. Oklahoma is among several states trying to protect their own people against this invasion that at no time in history has ANY president sought to rig the election with illegal aliens. We are rapidly witnessing the very reason why the United States will break up. Similar circumstances took place in the Roman Empire, where Emperor Valens opened the border to illegal aliens and destroyed the economy. They eventually rose up against the government, demanding more, and Emperor Valens was then killed in battle by the very people he allowed in.
Other bills targeting migrants have been passed this year in Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee. Garland claims that this Oklahoma law violates the U.S. Constitution and asks the court to declare it invalid and bar the state from enforcing it.
“Oklahoma cannot disregard the U.S. Constitution and settled Supreme Court precedent,” U.S. Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian M. Boynton, head of the Justice Department’s Civil Division, said in a statement. “We have brought this action to ensure that Oklahoma adheres to the Constitution and the framework adopted by Congress for regulation of immigration.”
New Report – The Migrant Crisis
This includes the Disease Cycle and
How We Should Expect Disease to Spread as it always does with Migrations throughout history
Because this is a real international crisis, I have put together this report, which is a warning to the West that this migrant crisis is part of the decline and fall of Western society, as it was the same mistake for Rome. In fact, it was the invasion of the Goths that changed Roman society, and even our word today for “god” was derived from barbarians, not Romans. Most interesting, this invasion of the Goths was so profound that to this day, our English word “god” is derived from the Proto-Germanic version of gudą, which is derived from the Goths’ Germanic language, “guþ.” So, the next time you pray to “God,” remember that was a barbarian word – not Roman, which was “Deus” – the Latin word for “god” or “deity”.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 