Satanism and Socialism: The Temptations of Jesus


Market Talk- March 1, 2017


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It was the speech that most claimed lacked substance that just did exactly what most thought it couldn’t – rally global stock markets. Yes, Japan’s Biz Cap-Ex released at 3.8% compared to the previous 1.3%; that woke markets, then Manufacturing PMI released a smidgen worse but when the JPY started to fall, everyone blamed Trump. The fact that the market has re-priced a March hike from 50% to 80% hardly made the pages. The Nikkei loved  the weaker Yen especially moved were key exporters all adding to the strong 1.5% rally. Shanghai and Hang Seng were small better bid (bit disappointing as China PMI better than expected) but in late US trading the futures market have added an additional 1% across the board.

I find it quite amusing that the pages announcing in Asian time zone “no substance”, lacked detail and disappointing – suddenly claim that $1tln will help infrastructure and defence stocks. Europe benefitted both on data and action as fresh money finally found its way into the market. All core indices saw gains of around 2% whilst both the Euro and GBP traded weaker. Mixed bag of tricks on the data front but probably a tad better for Germany which did see a small sell-off in bunds but then treasuries were down nearly 2pts so probably not that exciting really!

The US market could not wait to open with a 100 point gain seen in the opening minutes. By lunchtime time we were over 300 points higher, breaking both the psychological 21k for the DOW and the 2400 level for the S+P. Data was mixed initially but finished better (ISM 56 forecast was released at 57.7) with most talking FED. Towards the close we are pricing in a 80% chance of a move in March but many may wish to wait Janet Yellen when she speaks Friday. Given the DXY recent performance (now around 101.75), the rise of the S+P (+7% YTD) and 2yr yields their highest in nearly 8yrs the chances are this could be the start of the FED back in play.

2’s closed 1.28% (+5bp), 10’s at 2.46% (+10bp), Bunds 0.0.28% (+8bp) closes US/Germany spread at +218bp. France 0.91% (+3bp), Italy 2.11% (+4bp; can you really believe Italy trades 35bp through the USA!!!), Greece 6.75% (-22bp), Turkey 10.66% (+7bp), Portugal 3.89% (+6bp) and finally Gilts 1.19% (+4bp).

DESPITE RISE OF TRUMP, DEMS GO HARD LEFT UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP


When you are losing you need to double or tipple down to make up for the bad message.

Key Interview – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Talks To Neil Cavuto…


Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gives Fox Business News’ Neil Cavuto an interview to discuss President Trump’s timeline for the ObamaCare repeal, budget and tax reform. The interview is int…

Source: Key Interview – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Talks To Neil Cavuto…

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President Trump Makes the Union Great Again


Trumps message was exactly what we hope for when we elected him!

Trump Speech to Joint Session of Congress: Mission Accomplished


I agree that the Democrats are not in the “corner” and they can now either join the trump program and have some say or they can fight him tooth and nail and risk more losses and the state and national elections in 2018. Based on last night and past history i bet they will double down the resistance; forcing Trump to call them on the carpet and call for the citizens to, “Fire Them.”

President Donald J. Trump’s Address to a Joint Session of Congress – YouTube


A Speech to Remember as trump delivers on his promises to the American Citizens; lets hope that the congress understands the movement and works with him.

Trump Tease: Open to ‘Compromise’ on ‘Immigration Reform’


The Democrat’s have based their future on a system that is destroying the country and is not sustainable. The harder they push that narrative (and they have no choice now) the more support from working class Americans Trump will get. The Dem’s are like an alcoholic drum on the booze and wanting more even as they loose everything in the process. Trump showed us what the Dem’s have become and unless they would change, but they will not, it could even be the end of the party. The same Democrats could even become republicans before 2018 and they get voted out. The people do not want the future that the Dem’s are promoting!

Why Do Majority of Fund Managers Cannot Beat the S&P500?


Trader

QUESTION: Marty; The Mises Institute said “Martin Armstrong is one of the most famous economic forecasters alive” and others call you the legend. I have watched your numbers and timing targets. I bought the Gold Report in 2016 and to watch gold peak exactly to the day you highlighted years ago and in so many other markets, you have proved your point. This is humanly impossible so you must have discovered a model that reveals the regularity of everything showing there is no such thing as randomness. My question is simply this. The majority of fund managers could not even beat the S&P500. Many funds had their worst year since 2009.  I made more money in the account I traded using your forecast than I did in the funds I gave to managers. Would you consider publishing funds that use you so we would know who to trust since you are not interested in going back to funds management?

PG

ANSWER: We are considering that. As 2016 began, USA Today reported that 66% of fund managers could not match the S&P500. Back in 2014, 86% of investment managers lost money. Studies back in 2013 showed the same general ratio that only 24% of active mutual fund managers outperform the market index. Last year, 2016 was the WORST year for fund managers picking stocks. The London FT reported that active fund managers last September were lagging behind the stock market. Stockpickers in their semi-annual survey found that 90% of all managers fell short of benchmark.

This is a HUGE problem. The crisis in funds management illustrates what I have been warning about. OPINION is your worst enemy. I try on this blog to cover the world range of topics. To be a good hedge fund manager. the first thing you MUST do is be on top of everything unfolding in the world ALL the time. The tsunami waves of market corrections and breakouts ALWAYS unfold from an international perspective. Even the US media never really talked about BREXIT until about 10 days before it even took place. You cannot successfully invest or manage money and be oblivious to world trends.

We will consider licensing our model to firms for public use.

Small Business was the Backbone of the Economy


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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; My family have been lifelong democrats and operated a small local business. We were never in the multi-million dollar class, but always found ourselves considered to the the unholy rich. I remember Joe Biden saying that 90% of small business made under $100,000. Those are most likely individuals and not small business who actually hire people. Obamacare devastated our net bottom line and I have seen the light. You wrote before that small business was the backbone of the economy. Why have the democrats always been against small business?

Curious on your take

Tax Defining RichANSWER: The problem stems from the fact that to collect money, the top bracket for income tax has progressively been lowered. Back at the time of World War I, the definition of the rich was someone who earned $2 million. Considering a car was $300, that was a lot of money. Then for World War II, the definition was raised to $5 million. There were songs like We’re in the money, we’re in the money; from the Gold Diggers of 1933, reflecting the boom times. The government even printed $10,000 bills.

The rhetoric has been Marxist since the Great Depression, but they call it “progressive” or “liberal”. The definition has changed dramatically so $250,000 is now the equivalent of being super rich during the Great Depression earning $5 million.

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Today, small businesses make up: 99.7% of U.S. employer firms, 64% of net new private-sector jobs, 49.2% of private-sector employment, 42.9% of private-sector payroll, 46% of private-sector output, 43% of high-tech employment, and 98% of firms exporting goods. Joe Biden’s justification that the Democrats do not tax small business is just not true. What he counts as small business is self-employed which can be anything from a handyman to jockey racing horses freelance. That is substantially different from small business that actually employs people.

U.S. Census information from 2008 identified a total of 27,281,452 businesses in the United States. The number of businesses operated by proprietors with no employees numbered 21,351,320, which were the self-employed individuals. The Small Business Administration defines small business as fewer than 500 employees – which to me is not small. Add to this the number of businesses having fewer than 500 employees and the number of small businesses comes to 27,262,983. Now, let’s subtract this number from the total number of businesses identified by the census. This produces the number of businesses with more than 500 employees amounts to 18,586. Small business amounts to 99.7% of businesses in the United States.

Big corporations only employ about 38% of the private sector workforce while small businesses employs 53% of the workforce. In fact, over 99% of employing organizations are small businesses and more than 95% of these businesses have fewer than 10 employees. As I stated above, small businesses accounted for 64% of net new jobs created. In fact, many of these new jobs are also new companies. The startup rate in 2010 was the highest it has been in 15 years, but that is because 60% of graduate from college cannot find employment in the field that they paid for a degree. Many are FORCED to start their own business typically one-man bands. The rise in startups is because there has been shrinking roles available in big business as many are replaced by technology.

Small business ALWAYS grow faster creating more jobs than big business with 500 employees or more. In fact, historically, small businesses grow faster at a rate of 3.4% compared to big business which grows on average only 1.3%. Over the years, I have noted why big business slowly die. The boards become dominated by lawyers and accountants and lose touch with entrepreneurship as well as creativity – i.e. Steve Jobs.

The government always focuses on big business because they have the lobbyists who fund campaigns.  During the 2007-2009 Crisis, neither the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds nor industry bailouts specifically helped small businesses. In fact, slightly more than 20% of the small businesses get loans from banks and do so only with collateral. Therefore, big bailouts and TARP never “stimulate” the economy. Democrats always hate tax cuts and call it trickle down economics. But when it comes to bailouts, they only focus on the rich because they donate to their campaigns. Democrats talk out of both sides of their mouth. If you want to “stimulate” the economy, directly address small business – NOT the big companies who will not hire anyhow.

Then there is a huge divide between big business and small business. Big corporations are able to claim health insurance policies for employees as a business expense. Employees pay for those policies with pre-tax dollars. A self-employed business owner could not deduct his health insurance. There was a one-year self-employed health insurance tax deduction in the Small Business Jobs Act, but the Democrats would not allow that to be extended.Small businesses who work from home are entitled to take a home office deduction, but some 60% never deduct it for it often results in an audit and the deduction is notoriously difficult to calculate and thus a grey area the IRS loves to attack.

The bottom line is that Democrats rant and rave about the rich, but when it comes to helping small business, they screw them all they can and help big business because they donate for their campaigns. That’s the simple truth.