Posted originally on the CTH on May 1, 2023 | Sundance
Everything about the process of cutting down energy exploitation, then driving supply side inflation, then raising interest rates to shrink demand (stem inflation) created by a desire to lower economic activity to the scale of diminished energy production, is a game of pretending.
The collateral damage from the rate hikes has been the banking destabilization, which shows the priority of the government officials and central banks to support the climate change agenda. Into the game of pretending comes the second unavoidable consequence with inflation continuing as a result of the energy policy.
They simply cannot cut energy demand enough to meet the diminished scale of production. There is no alternative ‘green’ energy system in place to make up the difference. That is the reality. Now, the fed is scheduled to raise rates again, then begin to debate the collateral damage as they continue the pretending game.
(Via Wall Street Journal) – […] Another quarter-percentage point increase would lift the benchmark federal-funds rate to a 16-year high. The Fed began raising rates from near zero in March 2022.
Fed officials increased rates by a quarter point on March 22 to a range between 4.75% and 5%. That increase occurred with officials just beginning to grapple with the potential fallout of two midsize bank failures in March.
The sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase & Co. by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced early Monday is the latest reminder of how banking stress is clouding the economic outlook.
Fed officials are likely to keep an eye on how investors react to that deal ahead of Wednesday’s decision, just as they did before their rate increase six weeks ago when Swiss authorities merged investment banks UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. (read more)
There is no other way to look at the combined policy without seeing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the future. All of these combined policies are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Posted originally on the CTH on April 29, 2023 | Sundance
There’s something sketchy afoot in the world of high finance. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the most likely first contagion bank would have been First Republic Bank; both California banks carried similar vulnerabilities. However, once the Treasury Dept agreed to cover all deposits, even those unsecured deposits over the $250k FDIC insurance protection, suddenly First Republic Bank survived.
After the FDIC announcement, a group of 11 larger banks lent First Republic a tranche of money ($30 billion) to secure its holdings and help stabilize it. Approximately six weeks passed, suspiciously perhaps the burn rate for the tranche in combination with risk averse exits says I, and suddenly First Republic starts destabilizing again. [Insert Suspicious Cat here]
The First Republic stock value collapsed further last week, and the FDIC is now trying to get a takeover bid secured before government regulators are forced into a position of receivership. I’m not dialed in to the banking industry, but it looks to me like the six-week interim phase was an agreement to give the illusion of stability and afford time for highly exposed, ¹likely well connected, stakeholders to exit.
With the Treasury taking the prior SVB position, thereby securing all deposits regardless of scope, the FDIC is now on the hook if the collapse includes a govt takeover. The FDIC seems to be playing hot potato and looking for a buyer. Additionally, the FDIC is asking JP Morgan-Chase if they are interested. JPMorgan holds more than 10% of all deposit funds in U.S. banking. From a regulatory position, JPM cannot legally take any more institutional deposits. So, what gives? It is all sketchy, all of it.
(Bloomberg) — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has asked banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., US Bancorp and Bank of America Corp. to submit final bids for First Republic Bank by Sunday after gauging initial interest earlier in the week, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The regulator reached out to some banks late Thursday seeking indications of interest, including a proposed price and an estimated cost to the agency’s deposit insurance fund. Based on submissions received Friday, the regulator invited some of those firms and others to the next step in the bidding process, the people said, asking not to be named discussing the confidential talks.
Spokespeople for JPMorgan, PNC, US Bancorp, Bank of America and the FDIC declined to comment. Bank of America is considering whether to proceed with a formal offer, one of the people said. Citizens Financial Group Inc. is also involved in the bidding, Reuters reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
The bidding process kick-started by regulators — after weeks of fruitless talks among banks and their advisers — could pave the way for a tidier sale of First Republic than the drawn-out auctions that followed the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month. Authorities are stepping in after a particularly precipitous drop in the company’s stock over the past week, which is now down 97% this year.
Unclear to some involved in the process is whether regulators might use a bid for a so-called open-market solution that avoids formally declaring First Republic a failure and seizing it. The stock’s drop — leaving the company with a $650 million market value — has made such a takeover at least somewhat more feasible.
[…] A group of 11 banks that deposited $30 billion into First Republic last month — giving it time to find a private-sector solution — have proved reluctant to band together on making a joint investment. A few proposals that surfaced in recent days called for a consortium of stronger banks to buy assets from First Republic for more than their market value. But no agreement materialized.
Instead, some stronger firms have been waiting for the government to offer aid or put the bank in receivership, a resolution they view as cleaner — and potentially ending with a sale of the bank or its pieces at attractive prices.
But receivership is an outcome the FDIC would prefer to avoid in part because of the prospect it will inflict a multibillion-dollar hit to its own deposit insurance fund. The agency is already planning to impose a special assessment on the industry to cover the cost of SVB and Signature Bank’s failures last month. (more)
¹This is pure speculation on my part, but if you were a well-connected California big fish and you had exposure in FRB, after the SVB collapse you might ask the govt to construct an exit plan to assist you.
$11 billion flows in, you make your quiet withdrawals, and after exit the delayed outcome proceeds accordingly.
Inflation was only 1.4% when Biden took office. He began implementing policies on his first day that directly created the energy crisis in the US. He refused to reopen the economy under the pretense of COVID for as long as possible, disrupting the supply chain and damaging small businesses. Biden has created multi-trillion dollar spending programs that saddled the nation with more debt and increased price volatility. His team has been working to divide the people and create civil unrest. I could go on about his failures, but his worst move was involving America in the Russia-Ukraine war. Inflation has steadily risen to unsustainable levels nearly every month since Biden took office.
Biden’s team toys with the numbers to tout that inflation has gone down, but they are comparing the high and low both created under Biden. Wages cannot support the increase in costs and absolutely no one is better off under Biden. Considering the dire situation, it is infuriating that the US had a 1.4% inflation rate not long ago.
Inflation has soared by over 15% since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. The “Presidential Inflation Rate,” (PIR) developed by the Winston Group, measures a president’s progress in handling inflation over time, from their inauguration month to the month of the most recent CPI report. As of March, inflation under Biden is 15%, which makes him the most inflationary president since Carter. Biden’s 24% “Presidential Inflation Rate” for rising electricity costs is higher than any of the previous seven presidents as it is now up 37.2%. The cost of food rose 18.3% under Biden, and eggs alone have soared by nearly 80%. Shelter costs are now at a 42-year high, and Biden’s PIR for rent has surpassed 13.5%.
Joe Biden takes no responsibility for the inflation caused by his policies and failures as a president. Inflation will continue to increase under Biden. He has absolutely no plans to address the issue, and the legislation he creates to address the problem only exacerbates it. Biden is a corrupt politician who lines his pockets with money from Ukraine and China. The investigation into his crime family that the media is sweeping under the rug reveals the truth. This man needs to be removed from office immediately, but the people alone must decide when they’ve had enough.
QUESTION: Didn’t you also buy gold bars from the SS Central America ship that was discovered? The gold bugs hate you and say you are bearish gold but you buy a lot of it.
All the best
JE
ANSWER: Oh yes. I tend to collect important relics from major economic events. The sinking of that ship set off a financial panic in NYC because the banks were counting on that gold shipment. I did buy bars. There were some 30,000 pounds (13,600 kg) of gold and about 15 tons were recovered.
They are a piece of history. I would not melt them down.
It is very interesting that I just purchased a hoard of $20 liberties, all uncirculated like the day they came from the mint and all dated 1904. The source was a foreign central bank. They were going through their reserves and came across this exciting hoard. It just goes to show that sometimes being disorganized results in new discoveries and excitement all the time. This batch was 500. The fact that every coin has the same date demonstrates that it was indeed a reserve asset directly from the Philadelphia Mint.
All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.
As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.
This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.
They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.
Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from 73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:
“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”
COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.
The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.
While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.
The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.
Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil? Not a single institutional client will take that bait.
China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.
The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!
Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.
Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.
The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.
“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.
First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.
QUESTION #1: Dear Martin Armstrong, Thank you for your unwavering support of humanity and truth. The question I have is about the growing number of countries seeking to divorce themselves from the USD in favor of the alternate BRICS system. Yet when I try to make sense of the current Secured Dollar Funding Complex involving Cash Lenders, Fixed Income and Repo Clearing Banks, Commercial Paper, CD’s, Syndicated and Interbank Loans, Wholesale, Retail and Corporate Deposits, Corporate & Sovereign Bonds, etc. How likely is the world to cleanly disconnect from this entangled web and over what anticipated time frame, rapidly or a long drawn out affair? Sincerely,
Roy
QUESTION #2: Marty, is all this sudden talk about dethroning the US dollar coming just when April was a major target for the Euro bounce?
HJ
COMMENT #3: You have always said when China starts selling dollars, it is time for war. It looks like they are right on schedule.
Pete
ANSWER: All of this talk of dethroning the dollar is right on time. Yes, April was the target and we should be very careful here for this April/May period is critical on a global basis. As for the BRICS displacing the dollar in the trade as so many are saying, this only PROVES they are just putting out biased claims being anti-dollar with pure sophistry. This reveals that they do not understand anything about the economy, trade, or international finance.
Yes, the Euro elected a Monthly Bullish Reversal (Buy Signal). However, it MUST exceed 11100 on a monthly closing basis to suggest the euro can advance further on a sustained basis. If the Euro exceeds intraday the February high, then a monthly closing below 108 would warn we may be looking at the war and the flight to the dollar would unfold. I would expect that capital controls would be introduced by the end of the year.
First of all, the very reason they created the Euro was to end FX risk and to create a single market. If the BRICS create a competitive currency, then they are introducing FX Risk and that will REDUCE trade with the United States. If the dollar declines, then they will suffer a loss of trade. What makes the US dollar the reserve currency is the fact that the US is the largest consumer-based economy that everyone wants to sell to. I find it laughable how these people pretend to understand finance but are ignorant in reality offering nothing but sophistry.
They can create whatever currency they desire, but they cannot force the FX risk on their buyers. I helped to reorganize the Japanese auto industry where they priced their cars in dollars to the States and took back the FX Risk to be managed. They beat the Germans who were pricing their cars in DMarks during the 70s and soon their sales were declining to the Japanese. I was then later called in by German companies to teach them about FX Risk. and market share. Creating some new reserve currency is pointless if they put the FX risk on their customers.
As far as China, I cannot believe how the bias has skewed the analysis. People are actually saying they are selling dollars because the dollar will be dethroned. China has been dependent on the US economy to make money. They would NEVER sell dollars to simply dethrone the reserve status of the dollar. They are selling dollars because YOU DO NOT FUND your enemy. We are headed into war. They know that. This is all geopolitical and those who just hate the dollar are going to get sucker punched because they are missing what is really going on here.
They have been buying gold NOT because they are bullish – but because they must sell US bonds for in times of war the US will just default on all bonds held by China. I think it is time to get your head out of the sand and open your eyes. This is not about dollars and gold. This is about preparing for World War III.
Posted originally on the CTH on April 12, 2023 | Sundance
In the latest round of statistics from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) the March inflation data has been released [DATA HERE]. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February. This puts the 12-month CPI outlook at 5% inflation. [See Modified Table A on Left]
A 4.6% decline in March gasoline prices was offset by higher rental and housing costs. That was the primary driver of the lowered inflationary data as gasoline is weighted heavier in the impact.
However, that said, gasoline prices are already rising again after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers early this month announced further oil output cuts. This puts the April CPI data (starting to be assembled this week) on track to increase over March.
Overall, in the big picture the data shows the plateau of sorts as we described for this spring. This plateau will be followed by another bump as a result of current input costs and prior energy costs traveling through the supply chain.
Energy services, electricity and natural gas, are stable but higher than last year. The crop cycles carry those increased costs from field to fork. Consumers cannot avoid those food prices increasing. The more processing involved in the food sector, the higher the price increase.
Housing increases are another unavoidable cost and generally cycle with a lag within them. As leases expire, the new lease rates increase accordingly. The same is true for insurance rates. Both unavoidable sectors have a rolling lag that hits the consumer upon renewal.
On the wage side [DATA HERE] wages went up .03% but the work week declined 0.3%. Essentially nullifying earnings growth with fewer worked hours. With inflation at 0.1%, real wages declined .01%.
For the total 12-month cycle noted by the BLS data, “real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from March 2022 to March 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.6-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” For the year, wages continue to fall far short of inflation; meaning real wages are negative. Actual real wage growth has been negative for 24 consecutive months.
The main street economy is feeling all of these impacts. The paper economy (Wall St) is not feeling these impacts at the same level. The chasm between the haves and have-nots is widening.
Posted originally on the CTH on April 11, 2023 | Sundance
A few days after the terror attack of 9-11-01, someone in media asked George W. Bush what Americans can do to help. Dubya’s response drew instant criticism, because he asked people to go shopping… but in the big picture, President Bush knew what could happen if the economic freeze continued.
When it comes to politics and economic outlooks, trust your instincts. The economics of the ‘thing’ is always the reason the ‘thing’ exists or does not exist.
When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook. The motive behind what Dubya said in September of 2001, pertains every bit as much today. Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.
Remember, this current ‘supply-side energy policy driven inflation‘, a purposeful effort to shrink the economy and yet tenuously maintain control, has never happened before. The people behind the Build Back Better agenda are, in reality, experimenting with a theory. DATA…
(ISM) – The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI contracted for the fifth straight month in March registering 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The employment index declined by 2.2 percent to a level of 46.9.
Most of the impediments to manufacturing growth — such as shortages and lockdowns — have subsided, said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, with the exception of pricing. ISM’s pricing index fell below 50 in March but at 49.2 remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.
“The beginning of the second half may not be the beginning of a recovery,” said Fiore. “Manufactures reduced headcounts because of uncertainty of demand and over-ordering has burned off. Demand isn’t coming back quickly enough to support current headcounts.”
All these trends were prevalent in March, he added, although the PMI has only lost 3 to 4 points since October 2022.
Back in December, ISM panelists anticipated an uptick in demand by the beginning of Q2. “We thought this recovery would be lumpy, but I think this indicates the recovery has been delayed,” Fiore said. “I think we are talking about expansion toward the end of Q3—it’s unlikely we’ll see a lot of activity in the summer.” (read more)
It’s not a recovery now, it will not be a recovery this year.
On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021. However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden.
Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.
(CNBC SURVEY) – Inflation, economic instability and a lack of savings have an increasing number of Americans feeling financially stressed.
Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive.
Anxious and uncertain about whether they can get a better handle on their money, some may be intimidated by the prospect of creating a budget or unsure of where to stash their cash to get the highest returns. Others may be wondering how to begin saving for retirement when they’ve gotten off to a late start.
“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. (read more)
If you want to know what’s going on in the larger U.S. economy, just look around you.
Don’t turn on the television and read the newspaper to see what is happening in the U.S. economy for your purchasing or life planning. Just look around you.
Look at restaurants and bars. Do you see continued high-volume business or not.
Look at the grocery stores. Do you see continued optimism, or not.
Look at the malls and shopping centers. Do you see foot traffic, or not.
Look at the real estate in your neighborhood – your local view. Do you see prices going up or going down.
That’s the reality of the economy as it impacts you….. and critically, that’s the reality of the economy nationwide.
When it comes to data and economics, do not let the media created ‘illusion of the thing‘ cloud your ability to see the reality of the thing.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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