Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Feb 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your computer and you have been correct on everything from politics to markets and even climate. You said we would be headed back to global cooling. Was this based on the solar waves of energy from the sun?
Thank you for the thought-provoking blog
ANSWER: This is the Western Plague in research. They always seek to reduce whatever it is to a single cause and effect. I am so tired of this nonsense about CO2. Here in Flordia, we had a red tide and instantly the politicians were blaming it on farmers that certainly are not in this area. All I did was Google red tides and there it was, the first one reported was by the Spanish during the 17th century long before farmers in Florida using chemicals.
The output of energy from the Sun oscillates but that is NOT the single cause of the effect of global warming and cooling. There are other aspects that come into play such as Arctic Oscillations.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The most obvious reflection of the phase of this oscillation is the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. This is what impacts the “jet-stream” which they will refer to on weather reports. Thus, the AO can have a strong influence on weather and climate in major population centers in North America, Europe, and Asia, especially during winter. This is something the Climate Change people seem to be oblivious to these days.
The Weather forecasters are probably much to blame because they will refer to the Jet Stream dipping down which brings cold and ice storms to Texas for example. This will typically shut down electricity as we see all over the United States. However, what seems to NEVER be articulated is what makes the Jet Stream dip in the first place? The AO’s positive phase is characterized by lower-than-average air pressure over the Arctic paired with higher-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Jet Stream is farther north than average under these conditions, and storms can be shifted northward of their usual paths. Thus, the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia generally see fewer cold air outbreaks than usual during the positive phase of the AO.
Conversely, AO’s negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Jet Stream shifts toward the equator under these conditions, so the globe-encircling river of air is south of its average position. Consequently, locations in the mid-latitudes are more likely to experience outbreaks of frigid, polar air during winters when the AO is negative. In New England, for example, higher frequencies of coastal storms known as “Nor’easters” are linked to AO’s negative phase.
Now look closely at this chart. Note that the strong negative spikes down were going into 1970 and again in the mid-1970s. I really cannot explain why in the West science seems to be void of really comprehending that everything functions in a cycle. Because the summer in 2020 was hot, they immediately say it’s global warming and I am wrong. They shut up then when 50% of the country is freezing right now or claim this is because of CO2 with no proof at all.
During the 1970s, we had climate charlatans calling for a new ice age. Looking at this no different than any time series, the low was 1977 at -3.767 which was followed by a gradual warming trend where the high took place in 1993 at 3.495 on the AO index and the low thereafter was 2010 at -4.266. Thereafter, the AO index swung up into 2020 at 3.417 which was a retest of the 1993 high.
However, 2020 then went into a Panic Cycle and by year-end, it had closed negative extremely rapidly. This warned that the extreme heat into 2020 would then be followed by a crash into extreme cold into 2021 no different from a market crash pattern. Cyclically looking ahead, it will be extremely cold post-2032 into 2037. If we are going to see a sharp reduction in the population at that time, it will be primarily because of the weather. We are looking at wild swings and post 2032, where we are likely to make new historic lows in this index which will be very cold temperatures. By shutting down fossil fuels, this environmentalist movement may become the primary reason for the drop in population post-2032 that our model is suggesting most likely brought on malnutrition as food shortages dominate the end of this cycle. Life expectancy is already declining and is now down 15 years from the high. This will decline further into 2024 accelerated by the lockdowns.
Here we have the front cover of Time Magazine predicting climate change back to an ice age. That was dated January 31, 1977 corresponding to the sharp spike down into a negative AO in 1977. In the April 28, 1975 edition of Newsweek, they actually proposed solutions for climate change that included outlawing internal combustion engines.
This is when Al Gore came to the rescue. Just like the poles flip on the sun every 11 years, Al Gore flipped the argument from manmade cooling to manmade warming to save the end goal — eliminating all fossil fuels regardless of the evidence. Who needs science when you can just make up the studies and cherry-pick the facts to support whatever you want.
The extreme cold also hit in 2010. I remember in New Jersey, we had not seen snow like that since I was a kid. The increase in volatility is heading into a cataclysm by 3021-2037. Indeed, 2020 closed negative warning that this winter would be a highly volatile and cold year which may even exceed 1977 or 2010 on the negative side with respect to the AO index.
We now have the World Economic Forum, Bill Gates, and Al Gore, all swearing the global warming trend from the 1977 low into the 1990s was all man-made added by soccer-moms drive the kids around in SUVs. I just cannot get over the total lack of any scientific investigation that is now being used to destroy economies and jobs because these people are total idiots when it comes to understanding weather, science, or cycles.
No worries, you will NEVER read anything about cycles in mainstream media. They will NEVER print anything along these lines because they will NOT tolerate any possible debate. The United Nations needs the climate change argument for that is the only way they can gain power. They argue that no single country can stop global warming. It will take a one-world government with mandatory compliance by member states. Yes, my bias is to freedom whereas their agenda is to suppress the world.
Then there is the complexity of the Milankovitch Cycles. The climate activists dismiss it because they argue while physical evidence shows that the variation in Earth’s climate is much more extreme than the variation in the intensity of solar radiation calculated as the Earth’s orbit evolves. If orbital forcing causes climate change, science needs to explain why the observed effect is amplified out of linear proportion to the theoretical cause. They simply do not understand the complexity and it cannot be reduced to a single cause and effect as they have done with CO2.
Still, there is other research the United Nations ignores because they are using climate change to argue for a one-world government. The real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of Ice Age by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. They were the most influential oceanographers to date, yet the Global Warming people have completely ignored their work and bastardized it for political gain. The core of what they unveiled was that if the Arctic Ocean would get warmer and the ice melted, this would signal an Ice Age, not the sinking of coastal cities. A warmer Arctic Ocean would mean that water would flow more freely between it and the Atlantic, dissipating the cold making the Atlantic colder. There is the key to an Ice Age. If all the ice melted in the Arctic Ocean leaving open water that was then warmer by mixing with the Atlantic, then a warmer Arctic Ocean surrounded by colder land around it would produce evaporation and that water would then return back to the land as snow. More snow that falls in Greenland and Northern Canada is what makes glaciers grow deeper. When the Arctic Ocean is covered in ice, then there is NO EVAPORATION and thus we do not move into an Ice Age.
We are dealing with people who think only in a single dimension and constantly try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. They are seriously causing the West to collapse and their theories of Climate Change are leading us into absolute disaster post-2032. They will not tolerate opposition. To further illustrate my point, Joe Biden has taken down your right to Petition the White House. The petition system has been around for many years. There were hundreds of active petitions but Biden did not want petitions filed because his Great Reset and Climate Change agenda is opposed by Republicans he refuses to answer.
Moreover, he is imposing his Build Back Better Climate Change Agenda by executive order to deny even Congress the right to debate any of these issues. Biden is taking his marching orders from the World Economic Forum and the United Nations – not the American people. This is outright tyranny and anti-Democratic no matter what side you are on. If the White House had previously gotten 100,000 signatures, the White House was supposed to give an answer.
Under his previous Obama Administration, there was the “Free Assange” petition that the Obama Administration was obligated to answer. Biden does not want to answer anything with respect to his Build Back Better or Climate Change Agenda where he is taking direction from the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. So much for We the People! Biden is doing the very same thing as Big Tech – censorship.
The Biden White House does not promote unity nor does it represent 49.6% of the population it did not win. Biden has fully embraced that Cancel Culture where someone is shutdown from social or professional circles both online and in the real world. Those who are subject to this ostracism are said to be “canceled” so Biden has canceled 49.6% of the American public. Trump’s lawyer has been canceled by the law school for representing Trump during the impeachment. Lawyers are supposed to defend even the guilty. Looks like this is one law school you better not attend!
As one client wrote in: “I really enjoy your work. Thank you for sharing it with us. The world is going crazy and we are just along for the ride.” JC