Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Martin,
In addition to the 4 demands listed in your blog “Putin offers peace…” there is a fifth; Ukraine must repeal its “Ukrainian only” law and accept Russian as an equal official language. About 50% of all of Ukraine’s population has Russian as their mother tongue. Most of them are ethnic Russians or of mixed Russian and Ukrainian origin. The Ukrainians would probably continue to create an apartheid state if any agreement with them doesn’t give the Russian-speaking citizens iron-clad guarantees ensuring equal social, cultural, linguistic, and political rights with the ethnic Ukrainians.
REPLY: Zelensky is by no means a hero. People really need to understand the history of Ukraine which is really a modern nation-state. Nevertheless, Zelensky’s language law is indeed intended to create discord rather than unite the people much like the BLM movement to separate and divide which the West also carried out between the vaxed & unvaxed.
Despite all the hatred hurled at Putin, he is NOT trying to flatten Ukraine nor is he trying to conquer the nation-state. His airforce could flatten Ukraine and probably win the war in a matter of days. Even the Economist has noticed the absence of the Russian airforce. When Putin stated he wanted to defeat the Nazis of Ukraine, most people never heard of them but they were part of the German Nazis but were never prosecuted only because the West used them against Russia.
The Ukrainian Nazis followed the philosophy of ethnic cleansing of Stepan Bandera (1909-1959) a leader in the OUN nationalist Ukrainian movement where they exterminated Poles, Jews, and Russians. The Nazi Ukrainians executed up to 200,000 Jews but were exempted from prosecution.
Documents have surfaced that were previously classified that showed that the CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis. By the British MI6 was the main agency using the Nazis despite the warning of the CIA.
There is another side to Ukraine that is not being told. From many real sources, all I hear is the image of Zelensky as a puppet is amazingly noticed by people with experience. Zelensky has put the people of Ukraine at risk for what he has been moving to tear up the Minsk Agreement. The press is raising him as a hero fighting the evil bear of Russia without any investigation whatsoever. Most of what is coming out from Zelensky’s side is propaganda. Putin is not flattening Ukraine as the West did in Iraq. His actions clearly do not display an intent to conquer and occupy Ukraine. The power grid is still up as is the water supply. Putin has not moved to take those down.
Russia is in firm control of the East which was the stated objective from the outset. Russia will most likely take the city of Odessa now because of the sanctions. Odessa supplies the world with Neo Gas needed for computer chip production. Because this city in southern Ukraine is considered the capital of a crucial element for manufacturing these computer chips, purified neon gas is critical and Russia can disrupt the technology of the West by taking Odessa.
There is much more to the story than the press is reporting for they only are putting out propaganda. I have Ukrainian friends from both sides – Kyiv and Donestk. Throughout my life, since I have lived in Europe as well as Asia, I have had both Russian and Ukrainian friends and we still keep in contact by email and text. I have understood the deep feelings on both sides. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, in July 1990 a declaration of sovereignty was passed by the Ukrainian parliament, and in August 1991 Ukraine was declared to be at last an independent nation-state. Leonid Kravchuk became the first president of Ukraine in December 1991. So when Putin says that the USSR created Ukraine, he does know his history.
Following the Minsk Agreement in 2015, Merkel thanked the other participants of the negotiations – French President Francois Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. She said Poroshenko “did his utmost to stop the bloodshed,” in his country.
“Finally, even President Putin exerted pressure on the separatists, so that they would agree that as of midnight on Saturday night or Sunday morning, there is a ceasefire,” Merkel said, commenting on the results of the talks.
We should not be Cheering war like this is a sports or video game. If Russia was really near its downfall, then there is no risk in pushing the button. We desperately need a peacemaker. Biden still runs home to Delaware in the middle of a crisis. Harris is probably even worse than Biden. There is absolutely nobody in the West even willing to talk. All they do is spew hatred. This clearly suggests that they WANT war – not peace.
I would ask China to try to step in here and adopt the role of the peacemaker. There is no such person in the West and without one, full-blown war is rapidly approaching. Even the Bible talked about the peacemaker of where there are none today.
Matthew 5:9 “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God.
A List of measures to fulfill the Minsk Agreement
February 12, 2015
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting at 0000 (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.
2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50 kilometer security zone for 100mm or larger caliber artillery systems, a 70 kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems and a 140 kilometer security zone for the Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems:
– for the Ukrainian troops: [withdrawal] from the actual contact line;
– for the military units of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine: [withdrawal] from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014
Withdrawal of aforementioned heavy weapons shall begin no later than the second day of the ceasefire and end within 14 days.
The OSCE will contribute to this process with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Starting the first day of such withdrawal, ensuring the effective monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons with the use of all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc.
4. On the first day after the withdrawal, to begin a dialogue on the procedures for holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and the Law of Ukraine “On a temporary order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” as well as on the future regime of these areas, according to this Act.
Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of a territory subject to the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local government in some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” based on the line set in a Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014
5. To provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons with regard to the events that took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of “all for all”. This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the withdrawal.
7. To provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy on the basis of an international mechanism.
8. Determination of the procedure for the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including transactions of social payments, such as pensions and other payments (takings and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within Ukraine’s legal framework).
To this end, Ukraine shall regain control over the segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers will probably be created.
9. Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by Ukraine’s government throughout the whole conflict area, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine, and a constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on condition of implementation of paragraph 11 – with consultations and in agreement with the representatives of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Conducting constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new constitution coming into force by the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of these areas), as well as the adoption of the permanent legislation on the special status of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note , until the end of 2015. (See Notes)
12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local government in individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” the questions regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed with the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE with the monitoring by the OSCE ODIHR.
13. To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreement. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Such measures, in accordance with the Law “On the special order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” include the following:
– Exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of persons associated with the events that took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
– The right to self-determination with regard to language;
– Participation of local governments in the appointment of heads of prosecutors’ offices and courts in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
– The possibility for the central executive authorities to conclude agreements with the relevant local authorities on economic, social and cultural development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
– The state shall support socio-economic development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
– Assistance from the central government to cross-border cooperation between the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and regions of the Russian Federation;
– The creation of people’s militia units [police] upon the decision of local councils in order to maintain public order in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
– The powers of local council deputies and other officials elected in snap elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine according to this law, cannot be terminated.
The document is signed by the members of a Trilateral Contact Group:
[OSCE] Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini
Second President of Ukraine L.D. Kuchma
The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine M.Yu. Zurabov
A. V. Zakharchenko
I. V. Plotnitsky