Category Economic Subjects

Jan 3 2016

The Obama administration has started a death spiral of sucking the life blood out of the economy though more and more taxes which will not stop until they have 100% og everything!


The Solution – Debt & Taxes

Re-Posted on January 3, 2016 by

US Debt 2015 Int Expenditures

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was given your Solution DVD for Christmas by my son. I just began reading your blog for days. This has been an eye opening experience and it has even opened a dialog with my son. So you can teach old dogs new tricks. So my conclusion is that we can step ahead and that we may not overcome death, but taxes do seem to lead nowhere but more taxes. Do you think they will adopt your solution?

ANSWER: We have sold many SOLUTION DVDs on Amazon. It seems to be a great gift to get others to pay attention. Glad that worked with you. The more people who  watch this and at least enter the debate, the more likely we can see this solution take hold. But keep in mind, this solution would ONLY emerge after we crash and burn and the current system becomes unsustainable.

We are spending per month, even at these low interest rates, over $20 billion in interest per month on average. What happens when rate rise? The system starts to exponentially collapse. Our problem will be that they are increasing taxes and becoming abusively aggressive in tax enforcement, they they are destroying exactly what made the world economy flourish.   But all they care about is holding on to power so they will continue to screw down on society in their own self-interest.

german-debt-int

USIntAsPTotal

It does not really matter looking at debt as a percent of GDP for the GDP includes government expenditures and fails to realize that it is extracting a portion from society to fund itself which wastes productivity since government does not create anything. Therefore, if government is 100% of GDP as in communism, 33% to 50% in socialism, then the debt to GDP ratio becomes delusional. All countries are in trouble because they are operating on a system that is unsustainable.

Jan 1 2016

2017 is when things break down and 2018 is probably the start of WW III


2017 the Year from Political Hell

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

2017-1

QUESTION: Greetings Elections were always the same dates, why is it that we’ve only started discussing them in the last week?

Regards,

JCL

Dollar-Bubble

ANSWER: It is not just the USA this time, it is France & Germany plus the referendum vote on Britain leaving the EU. All of this will be a lot of uncertainly in Europe which will drive more capital into dollar on sheer anticipation.

2017-Budget Deficit

It is not dramatic with USA alone. It is the correlation of all political trends hitting in 2017, In the USA, this is also when everything goes negative and that is the government’s own budget. So this time the public will start to hear more about the budget crisis we face.

G20-Photo

This is also why the G20 will start to track all money movement. I reported how as an employer, I cannot even give an employee a gift of more than $25. You cannot buy diner for that or a bottle of champagne. These people have mismanaged government and we are always the problem – never them.

They will FIRST raise taxes and tax enforcement before they will ever reform. What they are doing to Greeks starting today having to report anything of value held outside of banks is the BALLOON. They get away with this and you are next for it will be extended in 2017 everywhere. Then there is the mad rush to move to electronic money to prevent people from hoarding cash outside of banks. This is why we have presented the SOLUTION that necessitates the end of public debt and the end of taxes for both are obsolete when there is no intention of ever repaying the debt.

One small business owner wrote to tell us that when they deposit any cash, they now must supply the bank with photo ID to deposit cash even as a small business owner dealing with the public IN THE UNITED STATES.

The sum of all our worst fears is coming. You will know it by its number – 2017.

Jan 1 2016

This is a long post but its also very important as it gives a reasonable projection of the next 4 years which are very critical because of documented social cycles!


2016 – the BIG SHIFT

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

2016-1

As we close 2015 and begin a new year, the markets generally closed flat to neutral with a warning that as we approach the political year from hell being 2017, this is by no means going to be a walk through the park. We are more likely than not going to see some trends conclude in 2016 and others perform a false move the scare the hell out of everyone. Nevertheless, the stars may not be aligning, but the markets appear to be setting the stage to align for the BIG SHIFT.

Money-Assets

What does the BIG SHIFT mean? It means that as we face a meltdown in Socialism which has taken hold of Western Governments destroying our underlying democratic foundations, ALL assets must prepare for the HEDGE against government.

Big Shift 1975-1982

 

Relationships are NEVER constant, yet the TV analysis touts fixed concepts that people then believe. At first, many will buy or sell based upon such unfounded beliefs and assumptions. When we examine them in detail, they fall to the ground into dust.

Troika-Unelected

Europe is operating under a dictatorship and has lost any possible right to exercise a democratic process to remove the three members of the Troika since not a single one stands for any election. Lagarde is of the IMF and is not even appointed the head of the IMF exclusively by Europeans. She was a personal friend of Obama. Draghi is ex-Goldman Sachs. Once a member of Goldman, you never leave. The EU Parliament has no validity since the Commission is not bound by their vote. The people of European nations have absolutely no means to reclaim their sovereignty by any method other than force. And to prevent that, the EU Commission wants to create its own army.

2017-1

As we hurl through time and space toward 2017, we will come to realize that this is indeed the year from Political Hell. Not only will a new president take office in the USA, but we are looking at France, Germany, and Britain also going nuts.

US-Share-Markets

The $40 level becomes important resistance now in oil. The Dow closing lower than 2014 is warning that there is a risk of a retest of the lows as was the case with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ which made a new high at last but with little follow-through. This warns we may yet see a retest of support and the Sling-Shot Move remains possible. Silver closed bearish and gold only neutral.

It appears everything lining up for a very dramatic move between 2017 and 2020. So grab your socks, this one could be very crazy and wild to say the least.

Dec 31 2015

How you lose money in the market


False Moves & the Force Behind Them

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by

bulls-bears

QUESTION : Mr. Armstrong,
I’ve heard you refer to “the false move”, and have witnessed it myself. I know there is no conspiracy to ruin my day nor deter me from trading. I was just curious, what causes this?

Thank you,
H

PS-Merry Christmas!

ANSWER: The real energy within a market is always to trap the majority for then they lose money and it forces them to cover their position. If 90% of the people are long, then any news can set off the collapse. If you scare the majority, there will be no bid when you try to sell, which results in a flash crash.

Likewise, the lows are made by excessive short positions. Again, something takes place and then the news sparks a short-cover panic. Likewise, because the majority are actually short, they are forced to cover and reverse the position which creates an abrupt swing to the upside.

DJ2731-W False Move

Therefore, markets always make the false move for that is the sling-shot that propels the market in the opposite direction. This is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets to further an important directional change.

We may see that FALSE MOVE yet with a sling-shot on a very major scale. This is the BIG SHIFT that will set the stage for markets to align in order to prepare for what is looking to be the collapse of Western Governments & their Monetary System that is now way out of control. The closings today are an omen of what is to come.

Dec 31 2015

This change will make the next bear market much worse!


NYSE & NASDAQ Ending Limit Risk Orders — You Are On Your Own

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by

NYSE-Shutter

jumper

The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are terminating stop-loss and good-til-canceled orders beginning Feb. 26, 2016. They are claiming risks occur from such orders during volatile trading. They are really admitting that there is a liquidity crisis. Additionally, going after high frequency trading and demanding that they turn over the source code to the proprietary systems will send the smart firms out of the markets. Cancelling these type of orders will only increase the risks for the average investor. The assumption has been that a flash crash takes place, these orders are elected, and then the market recovers. Complaints then materialize with hindsight, as always. Eliminating these types of orders will work in the opposite manner when there is a real decline, for they have the tendency to create a bank of sellers on any bounce and others are carried out bankrupt and unable to get out in a panic. As always, this demonstrates the one-dimensional thinking that screws up everything. This may lead to more jumpers as we saw back during the 1930s.

Dec 31 2015

The IRS Hunts for things to Tax


Maximum Gift One Can Give Anyone in Business is $25

Rew-Posted on December 31, 2015 by

irs-and-capitol

The hunt for money is absolutely destroying everything. The IRS has placed a maximum on the depreciation of assets. Any high-end cars over $40,000 must be paid for with after tax dollars. This will have some impact on the high-end markets. States are already sharing revenue and info. As of January 2014, if you buy a car and have roots in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, you have to pay the higher sales tax; then the dealer has carves it up and New Jersey gets its 7% and 1% goes to Pennsylvania.

States, such as New Jersey, already impose a second surcharge sales tax on any amount over $45,000. They call this the rich man’s tax. You pay the gross sales tax on the full price of the car and then a surcharge on any excess over $45,000.

Now on top of this, the IRS has imposed a $25 limit for ALL business gifts you give directly or indirectly to each person during your tax year. A gift to a company that is intended for the eventual personal use or benefit of a particular person or a limited class of people will be considered an indirect gift to that particular person or to the individuals within that class of people who receive the gift. You cannot even buy an employee dinner.

The IRS used an example to explain this on their website:

“Bob Jones sells products to Local Company. He and his wife, Jan, gave Local Company three gourmet gift baskets to thank them for their business. They paid $80 for each gift basket, or $240 total. Three of Local Company’s executives took the gift baskets home for their families’ use. Bob and Jan have no independent business relationship with any of the executives’ other family members. They can deduct a total of $75 ($25 limit × 3) for the gift baskets.”

Dec 31 2015

Today’s market closes are very import to the future of the next several years.


Closings Today will be the Year-End Signals

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by

2015-2016

 

The Holiday Schedule is below. The closing for our models will be TODAY and for the most part this will be a full normal day.

We are hovering around our year-end numbers in many markets from gold and the pound to oil and the Dow, which if it closes lower than last year 17823.07, then there is a risk that we will see further consolidation in 2016 and the Phase Transition will be far worse pointing to 2017-2020.  As we move into 2017, this will be the year from Political Hell since the direction of the world is on the brink with political elections which may yet prove to be a revolution and generational shift in so many countries not the least will be the US elections in November 2016.

Silver is already below its key number warning it is weaker than gold. Gold is trying to hold on to 1044, but the day is just starting. The S&P500 number for the close will be 205890 whereas in the DAX it lies at 1036700. In the British pound, the number is 15200, but the main number will be 146.12. Of course in Crude, the key number will be 35.11.

This is just a few markets. Today’s close will signal what is to come for 2016.

 

Equity and Option Markets

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours
Friday, Jan 1  Closed
Monday, Jan 4  Regular Hours

 

Spot Forex

Thursday, Dec 31  16:00 CT – regular close
Friday, Jan 1 Closed
Sunday, Jan 3 16:00 CT – reopen

 

Futures Holiday Schedule  Equity Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1600 CT – Regular close
Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed
Sunday, Jan 3  1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4
Monday, Jan 4  1600 CT – Regular close

 

Interest Rate and FX Products

Thursday, Dec 31 1600 CT – Regular close
Friday, Jan 1 New Year’s Observed
Sunday, Jan 3 1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4
Monday, Jan 4 1600 CT – Regular close

 

Energy and Metals Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1600 CT – Regular close
Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed
Sunday, Jan 3  1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4
Monday, Jan 4  1600 CT – Regular close

 

Grain Products

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular close – Per each product schedule
Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed
Sunday, Jan 3  1900 CT – Open for trade date Monday, Jan 4
Monday, Jan 4  Regular close – Per each product schedule

 

Livestock and Lumber Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1355 CT – Early Close
Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed
Monday, Jan 4  900 CT - Lumber market open  905 CT - Livestock markets open  Regular close – Per each product schedule

 

Russell Equity Index, U.S. Dollar Index, and Mini Metals

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours
Friday, Jan 1  Closed Monday,
Jan 4  Regular Hours

Sugar No. 11, Coffee “C”, Cotton No. 2, Cocoa, and FCOJ Contracts

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours
Friday, Jan 1  Closed
Monday, Jan 4  Regular Hours


VIX Futures


Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours


Friday, Jan 1  Closed


Monday, Jan 4 Regular hours (extended hours open at 17:00 CT on Sunday evening)


 



			

	
	



				
					


	

		
		

					
				Dec
				30
				2015
			
				


				
							

									More support for the Strong Dollar!
							

			


		

		



China Shuts down FOREX at Foreign Banks to Try to Stop Dollar Rise


Re-Posted on December 30, 2015  by  






central_bank_china


China has suspended FOREX business at three main foreign banks in an effort to curb the outflow of capital into the rising dollar. This is an interesting attempt to curb the rise in the dollar and it is clearly showing the overall trend in motion.


$CHINA-M 12-1-2015


 


It is interesting that China has taken this approach for we have elected ALL FOUR of the Monthly Bullish Reversals from the January 1st, 2014 low in the dollar confirming the change in trend. We still recommend that China just float its currency for the West will blame it for manipulation when in fact the global trend is toward a strong dollar into 2017.



			

	
	



				
					


	

		
		

					
				Dec
				30
				2015
			
				


				
							

									The beginning of the end of cash in the EU
							

			


		

		



Happy New Year — Bail-In Passed for Europe’s Banks


Re-Posted on December 30, 2015  by  






ECB


The mainstream media is not extensively reporting on the “experimental” bail-in that the EU imposed on Cyrus. The bail-in, that they swore would never be applied to Europe, will officially begin in January. This new power will be in the interest of taxpayers as they will no longer be forced to pay for failed banks that were created by the childish structure of the euro that was created by lawyers who never understood the economy. But wait a minute — aren’t taxpayers the people with deposits in banks? Hm. Moving to electronic money is also about preventing bank runs. The bottom-line here is that they will just take your money to save bankers. Eliminating cash accomplishes two things: (1) they get to tax everything, and (2) you cannot withdraw money from banks.


The bail-in directive was agreed upon on January 1, 2015, and the bail-in system will take effect on January 1, 2016. So here we are, just in case you missed this one. Their website states:


Parliament and Council Presidency negotiators reached a political agreement Wednesday on the draft bank recovery and resolution directive, the first step towards setting up an EU system to deal with struggling banks. This directive will introduce the “bail-in” principle by January 2016, thereby ensuring that taxpayers will not be first in line to pay for bank failures.


The entire system of insuring banks after their collapse during the Great Depression was to restore confidence to end the hoarding and revitalize the economy. Now they have allowed bankers to do everything they did before, and they have reversed the insurance created to restore confidence in banking. They justify this by claiming taxpayers will not have to pay for the failed banks.


FDR-Fireside Chat


Over 9,000 banks failed during the Great Depression in the United States; an estimated 4,000 banks failed in 1933 alone. Roosevelt’s fifteen-minute radio address to the American people on Sunday evening, March 12, was his first Fireside Chat. He told the public that only sound banks would be licensed to reopen by the U.S. Treasury: “I can assure you that it is safer to keep your money in a reopened bank than under the mattress.”


1933 NYT Bank Holiday


1933 Detroit Money Returned to Banks


1933 40percent deposite to be paid


When the institutions reopened for business on March 13, 1933, depositors stood in line to return their hoarded cash to neighborhood banks. Within two weeks, Americans had redeposited more than half of the currency that they had withdrawn from the banks due to the collapse in confidence.


Banks failed even after the bank holiday. The process was indeed a “bail-in”. People would get whatever the scraps were worth upon the collapse of the bank. Absolutely everything the governments did to restore confidence has been reversed in Europe. Yet, they try to “stimulate” the economy with QE? Just brain-dead.



			

	
	



				
					


	

		
		

					
				Dec
				29
				2015
			
				


				
							

									What is in store for us in the next two years?
							

			


		

		



The Dow for Year-End – Will it All Just Go Nuts for 2017?


Re-Posted on December 29, 2015  by  






DJIND-Y 12-29-2015


The Dow Jones Industrials still remains in a bullish posture on a broader perspective. The real critical support will lie at 16500 and the Panic Support is well below the market at 13100. Panic Support is the level that if breached intraday, this is where a Panic Crash unfolds. That is the real important level for 2016, but it does not appear to be in the cards. Otherwise, a closing for 2015 above 16500 is still moderately bullish whereas the technical levels will be 17345 and 18879.


DJFOR-Y 12-19-2015


We will be issuing the World Share Market Review after the first of the year overing North & South America, Europe, Middle East, and AustralsAsia as well as Asia from India and China up to Japan. We will also discuss the prospect for a continued sideways market for 2016 with the potential for the Phase Transition unfolding 2017-2020.


Keep in mind that the Bail-In becomes a formal European position January 1st, 2016, and 2017 is when G20 begins swapping info on everyone everywhere. Capital is being herded with no doubt and the smart money will begin to position itself realize it is time to get off the GRID. We have the Presidential elections in the USA at year-end and this too will help keep the markets guessing – Trump v Hillary or will the Republicans split entirely as they desperately try to force their own pick as the Republican candidate in a dictatorial move as they have done before.


Yet 2017 will see elections in Europe both in France and Germany. Of course we will also have the British vote to leave the EU. So looking at this agenda of fundamental chaos, it is not that hard to see why the computer is showing it all goes nuts starting in 2017. The question we will address is shall 2017 be a REACTION LOW with the false move before the breakout or a high with the meltdown afterwards?