Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 10, 2022 | sundance
We are here because we discuss uncomfortable truths. We accept things as they are, and not as we would wish them to be.
Since the original innocuous tweet 48 hours ago, from a private account, which did not even use the name “Trump,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been absolutely silent about the illicit FBI raid on the home of Florida citizen and former President Donald J Trump. DeSantis is showing us all who he really is; but are you willing to accept it?
The raid on President Trump’s home is a moment for all to stand and take a position. On the day after the raid, much like the entire DC Decepticon establishment, Ron DeSantis hid in the bunker and kept quiet. No tweets. No appearances. Nothing that would create a situation where he would have to enter this ‘time of choosing.’ This is what politicians do. This is what Nikki Haley does. Avoiding controversy is not what war time leaders do.
On the second day after the raid, again with the politics of the issue as the dominating consideration, DeSantis releases a recording of a statement as Florida schools begin to open for the fall semester. Again, avoiding any situation where he would be asked to take a position on the raid. Please take note and pay attention. These are the moments that matter, the examples that show the true intents and motives of political leaders.
DeSantis is doing what he has been advised to do.
The silence of DeSantis is deafening.
DeSantis’ supporters, cheerleaders, GOPe promoters and sycophants will ignore it, but deep in their psyche they know what I am saying is true.
Ron DeSantis is a good governor for the state of Florida and has many attributes that make him important for a host of reasons, but this is not a war-time general. Ron DeSantis is a politician.
Accept things as they are, not as you would wish them to be. Because this is the same man that many people would select to face the greatest enemy to our republic. DeSantis is showing us right now that he does not possess the courage, desire in scale, or ability to fight the enemy we face in this battle.
DeSantis is a good finisher, a good maintainer, a good and solid ally who operates well when surrounded by the fortune of an aligned legislative body; but he is not yet the weapon that can stop the corrupt UniParty enemy within our republic.
There are moments that show the character of the politicians in the club apparatus. The pathetic and embarrassing Ted Cruz speech at the 2016 RNC nominating convention was one of those moments. The response, or lack thereof, to an illegitimate FBI raid on the personal home of the leader of the republican party is yet another.
Accept things as they are, you will be far less disappointed later on.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 10, 2022 | sundance
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the July inflation figures known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [DATA HERE]. I’m not going to spend much time on the review because the big picture results are exactly what we expected, the appearance of a false inflation plateau, drop and/or moderation of inflation.
The July energy prices dropped significantly driven by a reduction in consumer demand for gasoline and fuel oil, which lowered prices. We can expect a very similar outcome in August (report in Sept).
Most financial and economic media are reporting an “unexpected” drop in inflation, ex:
“Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs. {link}
Most econ people will look at the price drop sectors and accept that consumer spending on durable goods and non-essentials has become a downward price point on key categories like vehicles etc.
This is the ‘stag’ part of the ‘stagflation’ (economy), or the new lingo; the ‘dis’ part of the ‘disinflation’ (consumer spending).
For the middle-class or working class, especially those families with young children, I would shake all those data points away, clear the table and look more closely at [BLS Table-2] to see where our eyeballs should be focused.
Look closely at all food group products that originate as “ROW CROPS” and/or “GRAIN”. Just by looking at the current rate of price increase, you can easily see that all grain and row crop outcomes are going to explode in price in around 60 to 90 days.
The wholesale food supply chain is starting to price-in the future cost at market for products that have yet to be harvested. Remember, ‘row-crops’ and ‘grains’ are the most energy intensive farming and carry the highest rate of energy use in the process, including fertilizer and diesel prices. Row crops also carry the highest labor rate to harvest.
When you look at row crops and grains in the Table-2 breakdown of food prices the input price cost is easy to spot.
Annualizing the price outcomes, we see:
Flour at +60% in June and +38% in July.
Bread overall at +19% in June, and +34% in July.
Crackers at 12% in June, and +40% in July.
All grain-based categories are in this +35% to +50% annualized rate. This is a good rough estimator for what is going to happen in the third wave of food prices we have been discussing. These are energy cost increases we have to look forward to within current grain harvests. Additionally, a global shortage of grain will only make this worse.
Eggs are also in this +50% range, and Coffee around +42%.
The same is true for row crops with potato prices in July up +40% (annualized).
SUMMARY: Energy prices in July, Aug, Sept, moderate yet stay high – giving the false impression of inflation slowing as the overall economy continues shrinking. However, by the time we get to Sept, Oct, Nov, all of those high farming costs are going to transfer from the field to our forks. Food inflation in the last quarter of this year is going to be the urgent family conversation that takes the place of gas prices.
The Inflation Reduction Act will waste $430 billion and will do absolutely nothing to curb inflation. Around $300 billion will be spent on climate change initiatives. Clearly, that is not going to curb inflation, and paying farmers incentives for reducing emissions still does not change the fact that the current methods are the only way to produce food on a mass scale, no less during a global shortage.
One piece of legislation passed with this bill will embolden the International Revenue Services (IRS) with 87,000 additional workers. We live in a nation where the government takes a cut of our earnings and assets and then asks us to pay them more. How much more? Depends! If you miscalculate anything, you’ll wind up with fees or jail time.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) explained that the IRS is not adding tens of thousands of agents to target the big bad 1%. “I guarantee you citizens in every one of our states, if you ask them, ‘What do they want?’ they don’t want 87,000 new IRS agents. And they’re not being created to audit billionaires or giant corporations. They’re being created to audit you,” Cruz stated. The government is desperately hunting for any money they can find at our expense.
All Democratic Senators voted in favor of this bill under the guise that it would target the rich. “This will give us the chance to raise the revenue from wealthy tax cheats who are getting out of paying what they owe,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore). RS Commissioner Charles P. Rettig lied and said households earning under $400,000 would not be targeted. Yet, the Treasury Department expects the IRS to take away $400 billion in additional taxes over the next decade. In the same breath, the bill will multiply the agency’s budget by nearly six times at the cost of $80 billion.
The House Ways and Means Committee estimates that there will be an additional 1.2 million audits each year, and around 700,000 of those audits will investigate those earning under $75,000. “Democrats want to make the IRS larger than the Pentagon, the State Department, the FBI, and the Border Patrol combined,” Cruz wrote. “That’s a terrible idea. We should abolish the IRS!”
People are financially hurting right now, and the Biden Administration’s plan is to punish small businesses and the middle class. Even far-left Bernie Sanders said that the Inflation Reduction Act would do little to bring down inflation, although he applauded the new corporate tax hike. The government is now acting like the mafia and shaking down citizens for every penny they can find.
In May, Russia blocked attempts by the UN and US to pass further sanctions on North Korea. In July, North Korea stated that they officially recognized the People’s Republic of Donetsk and the People’s Republic of Luhansk as Russian territories. Russia has responded favorably to North Korea’s vocal support.
“Highly qualified, hardworking, and ready to work in the most difficult conditions, [North] Korean builders will be an asset in the serious task of restoring social, infrastructure and industrial facilities [in the Donbas] destroyed by the retreating Ukrainian forces,” Russia’s ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, said.
North Korea is a nuclear power with a military state. The tyrannical government indoctrinates children from a young age to hate the West. Kim Jong-Un can send cheap laborers to Russia at a moment’s notice, and he is certainly desperate for allies. This may entice China to step up its efforts as they have a monopoly on trade with their neighboring country and are increasingly growing frustrated with America after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. As the cycle of war turns up, new players are joining the fight.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance
Details are starting to come out about the ridiculous FBI raid on the home of Donald and Melania Trump in Mar-a-Lago. According to information provided to Miranda Devine of the New York Post, FBI agents from Washington DC raided the home despite cooperation from Trump attorneys.
The raid was executed focused solely on presidential records and evidence of classified information being stored there. A dubious pretext considering that Trump attorneys and records administrators had previously look through 15 boxes of personal documents that were part of the Trump administration.
The FBI did not leave a copy of the search warrant and left no list of items they confiscated. The documents were of a general nature including letters and mementos from Trump’s presidency, reportedly including letters from Barack Obama and Kim Jong Un, and other correspondence with world leaders.
(Via New York Post) FBI agents scoured Melania Trump’s wardrobe and spent several hours combing through Donald Trump’s private office, breaking open his safe and rifling through drawers when they raided the former First Family’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida Monday morning.
The Post has learned that the search warrant used by the FBI to enter the palatial Palm Beach property focused solely on presidential records and evidence of classified information being stored there.
A source close to the former president expressed concern that FBI agents or DOJ lawyers conducting the search could have “planted stuff” because they would not allow Trump’s attorneys inside the 128-room building to observe the operation, which lasted more than nine hours.
The raid by over 30 plain clothes agents from the Southern District of Florida and the FBI’s Washington Field Office extended through the Trump family’s entire 3,000-square-foot private quarters, as well as to a separate office and safe, and a locked basement storage room in which 15 cardboard boxes of material from the White House were stored.
Feds arrived at 9 a.m. and didn’t leave until 6:30 p.m.
An eyewitness to the raid said all of the boxes were confiscated by federal agents Monday, but it is unknown if anything else was taken as no itemized list of items was provided by the FBI. (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance
Nigel Farage gives a great interview on Steve Bannon’s War Room with his opinion of the FBI raid on the home of President Donald Trump. Within the interview Mr. Farage outlines the shock that also shook the people in the U.K who see, many for the first time, that U.S. justice institutions really are politicalized.
One of the key takeaways from Europe is the realization that a Deep State really does exist in the United States of America. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance
Appearing to be medicated, today Joe Biden repeatedly refused to answer questions about his involvement in the FBI raid of President Trump’s home in Florida.
Dr. Anthony Fauci is relentless. Biden told us the fable of the winter of death and destruction last year. Now Fauci is warning that people are “going to get into trouble” if they’re not vaccinated and boosted by the fall and winter months.
After hearing of the countless side effects and realizing the vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission, most Americans do not want a booster. The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 70% of Americans, 228 million people, are currently not up to date on their vaccinations. Only 48.4% of Americans (children over five included) opted for a booster shot.
Fauci claims people should do it for their “community.” Why? I could have Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, and the rest injected into me, and it still would not prevent me from being prone to transmitting the virus. Fauci himself caught COVID, and even Biden continued to work and failed to isolate after testing positive for the virus. Fauci’s fears are falling on deaf ears as people are becoming aware of the truth – the vaccines do not work.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance
George Stephanopoulos has a new hero not named Obama. Skipping both the red and blue pills in favor of Xanax and whiskey, a visually verklempt Stephanopoulos uses Dick Cheney as the introduction to the 2022 midterm election victory map. The last 3 seconds of this clip are funny as heck.
Pay no attention to the 67% of Americans who say things are getting even worse, and instead let’s cheer Dick Cheney and baby killing, after all – they are weirdly connected in a way. Thus, George has figured the new DNC strategy. Brilliant.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance
The great pretending continues. During a Sunday talk show appearance, San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daley states, “what I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply.” Note, she is not talking about energy.
Margaret Brennan, maintaining her position as the professional CBS narrative engineer, never thinks to ask: (a) where is this demand you speak of, and what exactly are they demanding? and/or (b) What is this 50% inflation on the supply side connected to? Obviously, an actual probing of inflation wasn’t in the script. The great pretending continues. [Transcript Here]
CTH has stated without reservation that August’s inflation report will show a significant –albeit temporary– drop in inflation as measured by the govt. The drop in gasoline prices throughout July (created by a drop in demand) will allow the fiscal and monetary policy makers to falsely claim overall inflation peaked. However, after a brief respite the inflation now growing in the ground (massive increases in farm costs), will then launch into the food supply chain. This delayed food inflation will overtake the energy inflation in the latter part of this year. WATCH:
[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to the state of the economy and the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. Good morning to you.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO PRESIDENT MARY DALY: Good morning.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The San Francisco Fed said fiscal spending during the entirety of the pandemic, all the congressional funding contributed 3%- a 3% hike in inflation. Do you expect the congressional bill that’s about to pass to add to inflation as well?
DALY: Well, let’s remember that during the time that there was this fiscal relief during the pandemic, there was also monetary policy relief. And those were things necessary to get us through the pandemic. So that’s why that was such an important component in history, will be the judge, whether it was too much or too little. But right now, that’s where that was. And my staff have evaluated that. When I look forward, there are so many things going on in the economy right now, both domestically and globally. And we are struggling with high inflation. But the Fed is committed to bringing that down. And we’re looking at not only things that Congress passes, but also what happens across the entire world.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So do you think this bill will- will add to inflation? Has inflation peaked? Can you say that?
DALY: You know, I really can’t comment on pending legislation, and it’s really hard to tell because all the details haven’t been worked out yet and or the time frame in which those things will take place. So right now, I think the most important thing, Margaret, is that inflation is too high and the labor market is strong. The global economy is struggling with ongoing high inflation, and that’s what I’m focused on.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You are a labor economist. We had this surprisingly strong jobs number on Friday. Why was it so surprising? What was it that economists missed here? What was your takeaway?
DALY: You know, it’s super interesting. You know, it did surprise everyone who tries to figure out exactly what the number will be. And we were you know, a number of projections were well off. But, you know, frankly, if you’re out in the communities, if you’re you’re traveling anywhere, you’re you’re just going in your own community. I don’t think consumers are workers or businesses were that surprised. There’s help wanted signs all over the place. People are can find multiple jobs if they want them. Search times for jobs aren’t that long. So I think the labor market is continuing to deliver. It just tells me that people want to work and that people want to hire. But the universal truth is that inflation’s too high.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But does it still or does it indicate that recession is not where we are or where we’re going?
DALY: If you’re out in the economy, you don’t feel like you’re in a recession. That’s the bottom line. The most important risk out there is inflation. And I think the job market just confirms that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. We’re going to take a break and come right back with you. Mary Daly, stay with us. We have more questions.
*COMMERCIAL BREAK*
MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face the Nation. We continue our conversation now with the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. In that jobs number on Friday, we also saw that wages rose, but they’re not rising as quickly as inflation is. How concerned are you that that shows inflation is really becoming embedded in the economy in a way that is really going to force sure your colleagues at the Fed to continue to have to hike rates.
DALY: You know, I don’t see inflation is embedded in the economy, the kinds of things that we would worry about just not being able to correct easily. What I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply. The Fed is really well positioned to bring demand down, and we already see the cooling forming in the housing market and investment. So I do see signs that the economy is cooling. It just is going to take some time for the interest rate adjustments we’ve made to work their way through. And we are far from done yet. That’s the the promise to the American people. We are far from done. We’re committed to bringing inflation down and we’ll continue to work until that job is fully done.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So it would still be appropriate to raise rates in September by half a percent?
DALY: Absolutely. And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy. But you mentioned, you know, wage growth a little bit above 5% inflation. Last print at 9.1%. Americans are losing ground every day. So the focus has to be on bringing inflation down.
MARGARET BRENNAN: One of the things the Fed can’t control is geopolitical risk. How concerned are you about what is happening in the Taiwan Strait right now?
DALY: Well, there’s so much going on globally, and I think that’s really something that we need to think about. It’s just getting through COVID, making sure the new variants don’t derail economic activity. We have central banks across the globe raising interest rates to try to bridle their own inflation. And we have ongoing developments that take place geopolitically or just more generally among countries and all of those things. The war in Ukraine, all of those things create headwinds, if you will, for the US economy and we’re going to have to lean against those headwinds for growth while we bridle inflation.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The Fed has its work cut out and I know we’ll be talking again. Thank you very much, Mary Daly. (LINK)
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