Category U. S. The Great Reset

Jul 1 2022

Atlanta Fed Revises Second Quarter GDP Estimate to Negative 1 Percent


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data. 

Jul 1 2022

Sanity Prevails, Supreme Court Strikes Down EPA Cap and Trade Scheme for Power Plants


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

“A decision of such magnitude and consequence rests with Congress itself, or an agency acting pursuant to a clear delegation from that representative body,” he added.

Roberts also noted that the EPA claimed to have the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions only after Congress declined to expand that authority through legislation.

“At bottom, the Clean Power Plan essentially adopted a cap-and-trade scheme, or set of state cap-and-trade schemes, for carbon,” the chief justice wrote. ” … Congress, however,  has consistently rejected proposals to amend the Clean Air Act to create such a program. It has also declined to enact similar measures, such as a carbon tax … Given these circumstances, our precedent counsels skepticism toward EPA’s claim …” (read more)

Jun 30 2022

The Untold War in Syria and Deserted Pipelines


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We’ve heard of the refugees and people fleeing Syria for a better life, but the media rarely reports how dire the situation has become. Reuters recently reported that 1.5% of the Syrian population is DEAD due to the ongoing war. Estimates state that around 83 people (18 who are innocent children) die every day in Syria. So why has everyone overlooked this decade-long deadly battle?

I mentioned in 2013 how former President Obama wanted to invade Syria. In 2009, Qatar proposed a pipeline that would have sent energy to Europe from Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan. Then Syrian ruler Assad, backed by Russia, began negotiating for a different pipeline with Iran that would run gas to Europe from Iraq and Syria. Russia saw an economic advantage to having the latter pipeline as the US was too closely linked to Qatar, and therefore, the Iranian pipeline became a priority for Russia.

Putin met with Obama in 2015 to ask him to support Assad against ISIS. Obama objected as that was not economically beneficial for the US and would give Russia almost a monopoly over European energy. Obama began suddenly lifting sanctions on Iran to break the forming alliance. Russia entered Syria on the exact day the ECM predicted, and the US began backing Assad’s opposition even though that meant funding the terrorist group ISIS.

There have been no developments on the Iran–Iraq–Syria pipeline (known as the friendship pipeline) since 2013. The Syrian people have been left to rot. There is so much virtue signaling for Ukraine, but numerous nations invaded Syria and left their economy and infrastructure in shambles. No politician cares about the people; nearly all decisions are made based on money. The US lost this battle as Russia remains an energy powerhouse with a stronghold on the entire energy sector. Thanks, Obama.

Jun 30 2022

Macron Tells Biden to Rethink Energy Plans


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

French President Emmanuel Macron pulled US President Joe Biden aside at the G7 summit to explain a few basic facts. Biden has been demanding Middle Eastern nations ramp up their oil and gas production to help offset the energy crisis his administration has created. It’s ok to drill and take from the environment as long as it is not on US soil.

A reporter recorded Macron explaining to Biden that the United Arab Emirates is already at maximum capacity and cannot produce more oil. He also told him that begging the Saudis for oil was a lost cause too. These were the only two OPEC nations left that the US thought it could tap into for more oil.

Journalist Michael Shellenberger tweeted part of the exchange between the US and French leaders: “I had a call with MBZ,” Macron said. (MBZ is the leader of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.) “He told me two things. I’m at a maximum [production capacity] and [the] Saudis can increase by 150 [thousands barrels per day].”

Reporters were visibly in earshot when Macron spoke to Biden, which seems like a strategic move. It is a not-so-subtle effort to explain to the US, as the world is watching, that they have the power to ramp up production on its own without grappling for help from other nations.

Jun 30 2022

Hutchinson & the Real Lie Behind this Latest Scam


Armsttrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very curious that Cassidy Hutchenson is testifying to what would be considered inadmissible evidence in a court of law. She has said that President Donald Trump was so irate that his Secret Service detail wouldn’t take him to the Capitol on Jan. 6 that he tried to grab the wheel of the armored limousine, then attacked one of the agents, according to testimony from a top former White House aide. This is HEARSAY and this political agenda of January 6th is a kangaroo court in its grand sense.

The entire object here is to claim January 6th was an armed insurrection so they can constitutionally prevent Trump from running again. This so-called “evidence” from Cassidy Hutchenson would NEVER be allowed in any court of law. The only person who could give such evidence would be the Secret Service agent. It must be someone with personal knowledge. Hutchenson has ruined her career for who would hire her fearing she could testify against her boss and makes up anything.

A proper constitutional investigation would be to take Hutchinson’s statement, identify the Secret Service agent, and then subpoena him to the stand. The fact that they never contacted the Secret Service raises a HUGE Red Flag that they are simply trying to poison the minds of everyone knowing that this is NOT acceptable evidence in a court of law.

This is like a disgruntled neighbor calling the cops saying they “think” you killed your spouse because they have not seen them for a week when they are merely out of town. I have deep concerns that now Hutchinson may have been offered something in return for this testimony and here we have Liz Cheney, whose father created the Iraq Way on fake information killing millions of people, and was responsible for the rise of ISIS, claiming falsely that “the case for prosecuting Donald Trump just got much stronger.” She is NOT stupid. She is an is an American attorney and therefore knows that HEARSAY is not acceptable in any court in the world. She is DELIBERATELY lying to the public to prevent Trump from ever running for President.

I hope Wyoming just moves West and joins California for hopefully they will secede from the Union and I will cheer – good riddance! This is not about the rule of law. This is about oppression. The Justice Department is trying to give people who were just there taking a selfie 5 years in prison.

Jun 30 2022

Tucker Carlson Walks Through a List of Political Dissidents the Biden Administration Has Targeted in the Last 18 Months


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 29, 2022 | Sundance

In his opening monologue tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined a political list of DOJ and FBI targets over the past 18 months.  Some of these examples are probably forgotten; however, when you see the examples highlighted with a timeline it really does showcase how our system of government has been weaponized by a corrupt Dept of Justice and corrupt FBI.

The part where the political dissidents are outlined begins at 05:39 (prompted) WATCH:

Jun 30 2022

Civics Fail, AOC Says it is Responsibility of Executive Branch and Legislative Branch “to put the supreme court in check”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 29, 2022 | Sundance

June 29, 2022 | Sundance | 158 Comments

In exactly 22 seconds during a late-night television appearance, Democrat Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez showcased her lack of understanding how the United States government works.  Ms. AOC literally gets the construct of our government reversed.

According to AOC it is “the responsibility of the president and congress to put the Supreme Court in check.”

Exactly the opposite is true.

It is the literal role and responsibility of the Supreme Court to check the constitutional validity of the legislative and executive branch.   The supreme court exists, almost exclusively, to keep the president and congress in check.  WATCH:

.

Ms. AOC could not be more wrong if she tried.  However, this is a great example of how basic civics are unknown to some of the people in congress.   Quite remarkable.

Jun 29 2022

San Antonio Human Smuggling Death Toll Rises to 51 as White House Says the Border is Closed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 28, 2022 | Sundance 


The death toll in the human smuggling operation involving a tractor trailer filled with illegal aliens has risen to 51 people. Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon said on Twitter that among the victims were 22 Mexican nationals, seven Guatemalans and two Hondurans.

TEXAS – […] Bexar County Precinct 1 Commissioner Rebeca Clay-Flores said the death toll has risen to 51 people during a press conference Tuesday afternoon. Initially, 46 people were found dead in the trailer Monday and 16 people were hospitalized, authorities said.

The death count was the highest ever from a smuggling incident in the United States, according to Craig Larrabee, acting special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations in San Antonio.

“This is a horror that surpasses anything we’ve experienced before,” said San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg. “And it’s sadly a preventable tragedy.”

The Baptist Health System in San Antonio received five patients and two have since died, spokesperson Natalie Gutierrez told USA TODAY. She said three remained in critical condition.

Two people were taken to University Hospital in San Antonio, including an adolescent male and a 23-year-old woman, the University Health System said on Twitter. Both were in critical condition. (read more)

Press Conference:

The White House released the following statement:

The tragic loss of life in San Antonio, Texas that took place yesterday is horrifying and heartbreaking.  Our prayers are with those who lost their lives, their loved ones, as well as those still fighting for their lives. As always, I am grateful for the swift work of all of the Federal, state, and local first responders.

While we are still learning all the facts about what happened and the Department of Homeland Security has the lead for the investigation, initial reports are that this tragedy was caused by smugglers or human traffickers who have no regard for the lives they endanger and exploit to make a profit.

This incident underscores the need to go after the multi-billion dollar criminal smuggling industry preying on migrants and leading to far too many innocent deaths. In Los Angeles two weeks ago, I announced that the United States has launched a first-of-its kind anti-smuggling campaign with our regional partners.  In the first three months, we have made over 2,400 arrests, and that work will only intensify in the months ahead.  

Exploiting vulnerable individuals for profit is shameful, as is political grandstanding around tragedy, and my Administration will continue to do everything possible to stop human smugglers and traffickers from taking advantage of people who are seeking to enter the United States between ports of entry. (link)

White House Spokesperson Karine Jeane-Pierre was questioned about the events and delivered a weird response claiming the border is closed:

MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  So, 46 people died — right? — in the state of Texas, and so — and others, as I just mentioned, are still fighting for their lives.

So we’re still learning their names.  Their families are still learning they lost loved ones, as when a tragic situation normally happens.  We’re focused on them, on the facts, and holding the human strugglers [smugglers] who endangered vulnerable individual — individuals for profits accountable.

And we’re — and we’re focused on continuing our historic actions to disrupt dangerous smuggling networks, including through a new anti-smuggling campaign that just in the first two months resulted in over 1,800 arrests.  But the fact of the matter is the border is closed, which is in part why you see people trying to make this dangerous journey using smuggling networks. (read more) 

Jun 28 2022

Kremlin: NATO Preparing for War with Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

(Footage from Operation Barbarossa, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War)

I have warned that Russia has felt as if it were on the defensive. They feel that the West and NATO have aligned against them and infringed on their sovereignty. Pope Francis made similar comments when he said that Russia was perhaps “provoked” and invaded Ukraine once they felt backed into a corner from which there was no escape.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated that he fears NATO and the West are planning to eventually wage war with Russia. The European Union (EU) recently granted candidacy status to Ukraine after denying them entry for years. They know Ukraine’s debt will be unpayable after the war without Russian reparations which will likely cripple the Russian economy. The war would have ended months ago if Western powers did not intervene and continually provide billions in funding. They are not simply doing a good deed – there is a reason behind their involvement.

Lavrov compared the situation to June 22, 1941, when Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was surprised by the attack, but Germany was not alone. Troops from Romania and Finland helped Germany invade, and later forces from Croatia, Hungary, Italy, and Slovakia were brought in to fight all the way to the outer areas of Moscow.

“Hitler rallied a significant part, if not most, of the European nations under his banner for a war against the Soviet Union,” Lavrov said. “[N]ow, the EU together with NATO are forming another—modern—coalition for a standoff and, ultimately, war with the Russian Federation.” Everyone disregards these remarks simply because they cannot fathom comparing a Jewish identifying leader (Zelensky) to Hitler despite the fact that Zelensky has been seen alongside modern-day Nazi coalitions.

Jun 28 2022

WHY Things Happen


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, do you think it was destiny that you were somehow intended to discover the hidden order behind the Business Cycle?

HS

QUESTION #2: Martin,

I have a friend who has been working on getting Roe v. Wade overturned.  In a groups chat, my daughter mentioned to him how this was going to go into the history books and their generation will be telling our children about it.

It then occurred to me that this could go down in the history books in ways that most do not yet perceive. If your models are correct, this may well be one of the “Ft. Sumpter events” that ultimately lead to a regional breakup of the U.S. by 2032.

Out of curiosity, when did your models first forecast the 2032 breakup?

ANSWER: This is all part of the decline and fall of the United States. There is no constitutional right to abortion any more than there is a constitutional right that the government must provide you with medicare. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. Read the language of the 5th Amendment — “No person shall be held…” It is a restraint upon government; it is NOT a positive list of rights. Read the text! It is always in the tone that the government shall not do whatever. They held that implicit in the 5th Amendment, there was a right to privacy. That was in the context of Griswold v Connecticut having to do with condoms. That was fashioned into Roe v Wade, and it was crafted to REDUCE the population of minorities. It was a racist decision. Justice Ginsberg made that clear, and she stood for women’s rights.

People then tried to force the government to pay for abortions. That is when HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980) was decided to point out that the Constitution is NEGATIVE, and thus no right compels the government to pay for abortion. From a legal perspective, there is NO right to abortion any more than there is a right that the government must pay for your healthcare, divorce, or any social benefits. This is the problem of SOCIALISM and that politicians have misrepresented the Constitution to win office on a pure lie.

The rhetoric that a woman’s life cannot be saved in a dangerous birth is absurd. The law in question limited the abortion right to within the first 15 weeks. The facts do not support this rhetoric. There is just this toxic absurd claim to some constitutional right that never existed. It will further divide the states, and I would welcome the separation of the United States. It is absurd that the assumed power of Washington can force social laws upon the whole, as it merely invites the destruction of the United States. Similarly, such measures destroyed Rome.

As Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:” “The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father [TRUMP] always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. “

As much as things change – they always remain the same. The name just changes.

I first published that forecast of 2032 back in 1979. That is when I published my findings in what I named the “WHY Report.” I don’t have a single copy of that report as it was lost in the allies of time. I did expand it and republished it again in 1981 after it successfully picked the 1981 high in interest rates. The second edition was published once more in July 1983. I have at least one copy of that one. I hear they all go for well over $1,000 these days; I should probably buy the first two.

I found it very interesting that perhaps I was destined to discover this model after the fact that it was accurate to a day because it was based upon pi – 8.6 years = 3,145 days. Note that the office address was Suite 314. The house I grew up in was 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey.

The title of that report was my number one question to my parents. I was always curious and asked “why” about everything. My mother would sometimes just respond, “BECAUSE!” So I named the report after my constant question. I suppose I could have been a real pain back then. If it was something I was interested in, I dove in over my head. If it was a boring subject, I really did not pay attention.

I began to use it myself in 1976. I observed it beginning in 1966. I had watched the boom-bust move from market to market — stocks, collectibles, real estate, and interest rates. Each time I had thought the bust was unique to that one market, I began to see that there was no exception. Everything rallied with an emotional peak, and then the crash would come when you could not sell what everyone wanted just months before.

I had gotten divorced but kept my kids. I was living at 16 Palmetto Ave, Marlton, New Jersey, but traveling 1 hour to Princeton every day. So I put my house up for sale, and for months nobody even came to look. Then a couple came. I think he owned some stores like a 7/11, but I don’t recall. He walked in and said he would buy it, but I had to be out in 30 days because his wife was very pregnant. I said, “No problem.” I took my two kids, and we moved into a hotel in Princeton as I began my search for a new home.

I then bought a house at 17 Abey Drive in Pennington, New Jersey, where I raised my kids. It was pointed out to me that 16 was 2x 8 and 17.2 is 2 x 8.6. So I suppose I have always lived with addressed that were linked to pi.

I do not know if it was destiny. I understand many people believe we are here for some purpose. Even in Asia, the idea of reincarnation in Hinduism is perhaps as old as Hinduism itself. General Patton had told my father that he was reincarnated and sent back to win the war. He said he was a General many times in history and said he would describe how they fought battles even under Alexander the Great. I do not have any recollection of past lives, so I cannot answer that question of destiny. Perhaps it is true or just a coincidence. Who knows.