Tag Archives: 8.6 year cycle

Nov 20 2023

A Heartfelt Thank You to the Global Participants of the 2023 World Economic Conference


Posted originally on Nov 19, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

WEC Conference 2011

As the curtains close on yet another successful World Economic Conference, we find ourselves reflecting on the incredible energy, insights, and global collaboration that defined this year’s event. We extend our deepest gratitude to all the attendees, both in-person and online, who made the 2023 World Economic Conference a truly remarkable experience.

The hallmark of the World Economic Conference has always been its ability to bring together a diverse array of perspectives and expertise from every corner of the globe. This year was no exception. From boardrooms in bustling metropolises to home offices in remote locations, the global community came together to share insights, challenge assumptions, and explore innovative solutions to the world’s most pressing challenges.

To our esteemed guests who joined us in person, your presence added a special dimension to the conference. The vibrant discussions, networking opportunities, and the unique atmosphere you created enriched the event. Your commitment to being a part of this global conversation demonstrates the power of face-to-face interactions in fostering meaningful connections and collaborations.

The online participants played an equally crucial role in shaping the success of this year’s conference. Connecting from various time zones, you showcased the limitless possibilities of virtual collaboration. Your active engagement through virtual platforms allowed the conference to transcend geographical boundaries, making it accessible to a wider audience and fostering a sense of inclusivity.

The World Economic Conference is not just an event; it is a community of changemakers. Your presence, whether physical or virtual, strengthens this global network. Together, we are creating a platform where ideas are born, partnerships are forged, and a shared vision for a sustainable and prosperous future is cultivated.

In closing, we extend our sincere gratitude to each and every participant of the 2023 World Economic Conference. As we bid farewell to this year’s conference, we carry forward the inspiration and momentum created by the collective efforts of individuals dedicated to shaping a better world. Thank you for making the 2023 World Economic Conference truly great. We look forward to welcoming you again next year for another chapter of collaboration and innovation.

Nov 18 2023

The World Outlook Conference (1999) Re-Posted Nov 18, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Nov 17 2023

The 80-Year Cyclical Theory v. the Economic Confidence Model Re-Posted Nov 17, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Sixth Wave Economic Confidence Model ECM 309.6

The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been honing in on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory that marks a major shift in humanity. While this may be true as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.

The 80-year theory, also called the Strauss–Howe generational theory, believes that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that build up to a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864 – the US Civil War. Taking it back even further we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.

Now, absolutely everything is connected, and to garner the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.

1 ECM 2032 Pi Turning Point 1 Annotated

The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave 1878 saw the Long Depression which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35 which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.

Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted in a profound way and changed nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave will be 2032 and this will be followed by the shift from the West to the East in economic power.

Nov 13 2023

6th Grader Lauren Arrington Shows Curiosity is Everything Re-Posted Nov 13, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Einsteing Curiosity

I have told the story before that when I was doing my reach early on at Princeton University’s Firestone Library, I became friends with a professor who had known Einstein who taught there. He said to me that I reminded him of Einstein. I was shocked because I was not making new theories in Physics. He explained that the subject matter did not matter. It was my curiosity in trying to figure out how empires rose and fell that inspired me.

He said that Einstein always said we will discover nothing unless we are curious. I came to understand that was the very reason Communism collapsed. They tried to eliminate the business cycle under Marxism and, in the process, reduce humanity to zombie drones denied free thought and stripped of curiosity. Thus, Communism fell by its own weight. There are those spreading the same nonsense that always begins with “equality” and the great divide in wealth. If we all have the same wealth, you destroy the very essential element of how society advances through the ages.

1903 first Ford

In all my studies, that statement to me about curiosity opened the door to understanding how society advances and declines. Schumpeter saw the boom and bust of the economy as waves of creative destruction. The invention of the combustion engine and the car’s development destroyed the horse and buggy industry, allowing the suburbs around cities to expand. This is Henry Ford in his first car, built in 1903. If it were not for his curiosity, we would have been in 15-minute cities riding our chariots through the streets, and the climate zealots would be arguing to kill all the horses for they are causing climate change as if the climate is supposed to never change.

Lauren Arrington

A Florida sixth grader, Lauren Arrington, has leaped into scientific fame with a startling discovery that could redefine our approach to invasive lionfish. She caught one in freshwater, where it was not supposed to survive. She conducted her own experiment, gradually reducing the salt in the water, and the fish survived. This has been a groundbreaking discovery that demonstrates how important curiosity truly is. We will discover NOTHING without it.

Encourage your children always to be curious.

That is the key to how society advances in the business cycle. Everything depends on it.

Congratulations Lauren. You will go far in life. Retain that Curiosity no matter what.

We Desperately will need it in this world of Equality.

Nov 11 2023

Dr Roy Spencer: New Global Dataset: Global Grids of UHI Effect On Air Temp, 1800-2023


Dr Roy Spencer: New Global Dataset: Global Grids of UHI Effect On Air Temp, 1800-2023

2023/November/04/Dr Roy Spencer: New Global Dataset: Global Grids of UHI Effect On Air Temp, 1800-2023

Dr Roy Spencer: New Global Dataset: Global Grids of UHI Effect On Air Temp, 1800-2023

By P Gosselin on 4. November 2023

See full report at Dr. Roy Spencer

As a follow-on to our paper submitted on a new method for calculating the multi-station average urban heat island (UHI) effect on air temperature, I’ve extended that initial U.S.-based study of summertime UHI effects to global land areas in all seasons and produced a global gridded dataset, currently covering the period 1800 to 2023 (every 10 years from 1800 to 1950, then yearly after 1950).

It is based upon over 13 million station-pair measurements of inter-station differences in GHCN station temperatures and population density over the period 1880-2023. 

Since UHI effects on air temperature are mostly at night, the results I get using Tavg will overestimate the UHI effect on daily high temperatures and underestimate the effect on daily low temperatures.

As an example of what one can do with the data, here is a global plot of the difference in July UHI warming between 1800 and 2023, where I have averaged the 1/12 deg spatial resolution data to 1/2 deg resolution for ease of plotting in Excel (I do not have a GIS system):

If I take the 100 locations with the largest amount of UHI warming between 1800 and 2023 and average their UHI temperatures together, I get the following:

Note that by 1800 there was 0.15 deg. C of average warming across these 100 cities since some of them are very old and already had large population densities by 1800. Also, these 100 “locations” are after averaging 1/12 deg. to 1/2 degree resolution, so each location is an average of 36 original resolution gridpoints. My point is that these are *large* heavily-urbanized locations, and the temperature signals would be stronger if I had used the 100 greatest UHI locations at original resolution.

Read entire article at Dr. Roy Spencer. 

Nov 5 2023

Wind Energy Killing Whales? Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong


Oct 22 2023

Interview: The US Gov’t Will COLLAPSE, and WE Will Rebuild the Future America


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Oct 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Oct 22 2023

James Sinclair Dies at 83


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Oct 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Many have written in saying how they came to hear about me was that James Sinclair, the call Mr. Gold, was publishing my handwritten reports from contempt.  Jim contributed to the promotion of gold post-Bretton Woods. I was purely an institutional adviser before the contempt. When the US put Conrad Black, who was a Canadian and British former newspaper publisher as well as a writer. I met Conrad when he and his son came to one of my Toronto Institutional sessions. When they put him in prison, he began writing for his newspaper. It was Conrad who inspired me to do the same. It was then that my writings expanded from institutional to general public. Jim aided me by publishing what I was writing and spreading the word.

As Socrates said, when sentenced to death, it was either a migration of the soul to see all your old friends or it was like a midsummer night’s sleep – so peaceful not to be disturbed by a dream. We will meet again, my old friend.

Oct 20 2023

The Last World Economic Conference?


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference Re-Posted Oct 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Question: Mr. Martin Armstrong. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and Socrates. I rely on your models that have yet to steer me wrong when decoded. Your post was quite alarming. I purchased tickets to your conference and have been in communication with others that I have met throughout the years at these events. Everyone is concerned after your warning that this is the last World Economic Conference. Why?

Answer: The last World Economic Conference? Perhaps. But that question is not dependent on me. For you see, our long-term forecasts have been incredibly accurate. No one has tried to defy their projections more than me. But Socrates does not rely on personal opinion and I am willing to share the full truth behind its projections.

The models saw an uptick in the War Cycle starting in 2014, and accurately selected Ukraine as the hot spot. So from a pure data perspective, what is taking place is nothing new to history. This is all in a database that monitors one action and works out the path of reaction, kind of like plotting the path of a hurricane. When you have a long historical database, that is the ONLY way to forecast that Ukraine would be the place where World War III begins. Such things can not be accomplished from a personal “opinion” perspective year in advance even before the 2014 Revolution in Ukraine.

The road to 2032 is extremely volatile and leaves the most experienced traders vulnerable to trading off of emotions. I will explain in detail what the models have in store for us as we move closer to the 2032 Paradigm Shift as the world will look nothing like what you see today.

As for me, I am ready to call it in – beam me up Scotty. Yet I have perhaps a calling to reveal the truth to those brave enough to accept it. Americans will be required to obtain a Visa to travel to Europe next year. Travel will become increasingly hard as totalitarian governments restrict access to free movement. This may very well be the last year we can host an in-person conference with the same international audience. The convergence of cultures has become one of the most insightful aspects of these gatherings, and while virtual is always possible, this could be the last in-person World Economic Conference.

I am providing all attendees with a hardcover copy of my book, “De-Dollarization.” America’s reign as the financial capital of the world is coming to an end, and the dollar will suffer the consequences.

There are still tickets available. Reach out to my staff at CustomerService@ArmstrongEconomics.com or click here. What I have to share may be the most important convergence of cycles I have seen in my lifetime. The dates are November 17, 18, and 19 in Orlando, Florida. Everything will be revealed.

Oct 16 2023

Armstrong Interview Brighteon


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Oct 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong