Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events


COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks

S

REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

 

The Mystery of Pi


QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,

I just encountered this video.:
Can you explain why Pi is showing up there?

Thanks and kind regards,

M

 

 

 

ANSWER: No. I have come to believe that Pi is strangely the key to all knowledge upon which the entire universe was constructed. The sun’s light takes about 8.6 minutes to reach the Earth after it has been emitted from the sun’s surface. This is a derivative of Pi. Does that mean that life will evolve on a planet that conforms to Pi?  It is assumed that it takes our galaxy approximately about 230 million years to make one complete orbit around the Milky Way! I suspect it is really 224 million years and that would comport with Pi.

On a basic level, Pi seems very simple for it is the ratio of a circle’s circumference divided by its diameter. This ratio is always the same no matter how large the circle (orbit) – 3.14 or so. Obviously, anytime you find yourself working with circles, arcs, pendulums, etc. you find Pi popping up. Therefore, you will be confronted with Pi when looking at gears, spherical helium balloons, and pendulum clocks. However, as this illustration exposes, you also find Pi in many unexpected places for reasons that seem to have nothing at all to do with circles at all. Pi even shows up in the gravity. (see Wired).

I have discovered that Pi shows up in economics as well as nature. I can only explain that it exists on all planes within this universe. It appears to be the cornerstone upon which everything in the universe was constructed.

 

The Difference between 2020 and 2032


QUESTION: Hi Martin,

My girlfriend brought up a point about your work during coffee this morning. Basically, she’s confused about the two dates you often mention, 2020 and 2032. She wants to know which date (2020, 2032) you expect the markets move into crises mode due to the lack of confidence in government. I tried to explain but my insight wasn’t good enough.

Could you explain in a future blog the difference between these dates and what you (Socrates) expect to happen during these points in time?

Thanks,
J

ANSWER: The 2032 date is the conclusion of this Private Wave. That is when the power of the West will begin to shift to China for the next cycle that begins thereafter. The 2020 date is when the confidence begins to noticeably begin to turn down for the AVERAGE person.  You can “feel” it in the air already. What the Democrats have done is simply unbelievable. Sure the people who hate Trump cheer. But they fail to understand the system. Whatever they do to the Republicans sets the stage for what will be considered “normal” for the Republicans to do to the Democrats if power shifts.

I have explained that the Democratic victory in the House was really a disaster for this has allowed nothing but the next two years to be confrontation as we are witnessing on the funding of the wall which is only $5.7 billion. In Fiscal Year 2019, the federal budget will be $4.407 trillion. The U.S. government estimates it will receive $3.422 trillion in revenue. That creates a $985 billion deficit for October 1st, 2018 through September 30, 2019. Not only is this less than a single week’s interest payment of $6.7 billion, it is .001% of the annual budget. It is so meaningless it illustrates my point. The Democrats think all they have to do is demonize Trump and OPPOSE absolutely everything he proposes to win the White House in 2020.

We will be running the computer models on the 2020 election. But preliminary indications show that we will see a sharp rise in violence. Neither side will accept the results.

Beyond the Higgs: What’s Next for the LHC? – with Harry Cliff


Published on Jan 17, 2018

SUBSCRIBE 506K
In 2012, the announcement of the Higgs boson made headlines around the world. But what has been going on at the Large Hadron Collider since? Physicist Harry Cliff will be your guide. Subscribe for regular science videos: http://bit.ly/RiSubscRibe Watch the Q&A here: https://youtu.be/JuVc_pIwVYE What is the future of the world’s biggest physics experiment? And what intriguing hints of new physics are around the corner? Harry Cliff is the Science Museum Fellow of Modern Science, which he reckons might be the only job title which begins and ends with ‘science’. He spends half his time searching for signs of new physics at LHCb, one of the four big experiments at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. For the other half, he indulges his love of talking about physics at the Science Museum, where he develop exhibitions, events and online content. This talk was filmed in the Royal Institution on 31 October 2017.

Central Banks v Clearing


Delos, First Central Bank

QUESTION: Dear Martin

Wonder if you have any insights as to the history of the bank clearing process.
Was the clearing process created mainly so banks could play games and earn interest with peoples’ money
with the reasoning that it was to prevent money laundering?

With technological advances today, one can accept an hour or two for automatic name and account number checks to happen
but 3-7 days seems ridiculous.

Any insights to the creation of the clearing process would be enlightening.

Thank you again

KW

ANSWER: The function of bank clearing began with giro-banking, which originated in the Temple of Delos in Greece. The term refers to the circulation of money. It originated where you could write a check to one person and transfer the payment to their account at the same bank. Effectively, in ancient Greece, you would have an account at the Temple in Delos and instruct a transfer to their account in the Temple. The Romans adopted this concept and thus Roman banking was born.

A central bank emerged after the Dark Ages in the early modern history as a government or state-owned banks. The Dutch were pioneers and financial innovators who not only created this state banking concept, but they also invented insurance. The Wisselbank was the first such bank in Amsterdam which was founded in the Dutch Republic during 1609. The Wisselbank became the model of the central banking system and it spread throughout Europe; first in 1668 in Sweden known as the Sveriges Riksbank and then the Bank of England in 1694.

When smaller private banks began to pop up, the state-owned banks emerged as clearing banks where transfers between the accounts at the central bank took place the same as they did between accounts in ancient Delos.

The Wisselbank actually collapsed in 1790 after it was revealed that the deposits have been used secretly to fund the Dutch East India Company. The manipulation was that they represented themselves as just holding money for safe-keeping. They did not lend money out. So when the bank failed and they had been using the money to fund the Dutch East India Company, the city had to bail out the bank and stand behind the losses.

To eliminate cash, the ECB has a secret project to provide instantaneous transfers for each transaction. Therefore, the central bank was simply a state-owned bank whereas a clearing bank was one where all banks must clear transactions

The 1943 Copper Penny a Flop? Or just Over Hype by Heritage Auctions?


QUESTION: I read that the Heritage auction of the penny they said would bring $1.7 million was a flop. Any indication as to why? Or is it just the firm trying to pawn something for big bucks?

HK

ANSWER: I have no idea why Heritage would have claimed the coin would bring $1.7 million. It is not that rare. There are about 40 to 45 known 1943 copper cents from the Philadelphia Mint. The general assumption is that they were struck by accident when there were some copper blank planchets still remaining in the press hopper when production began on the new steel pennies.

Now as far as sales go, there was a 1943 copper cent which was first offered for sale back in 1958, which sold for more than $40,000, or so it was claimed. Subsequently, there was one sold for only $10,000 at an ANA convention in 1981. The highest amount ever paid for this error previously was $82,500 back in 1996.

There was only one copper 1943 penny known from the Denver Mint which did sell they claim for $1.7 million by Legend Numismatics of Lincroft, New Jersey. I would not guarantee that price personally. US coins tend to get really hyped. This unique coin, not publicly known to exist until 1979, was certified PCGS MS64BN. If Heritage was claiming their penny should bring $1.7 million which was from the far more common hoard of Philadelphia, I really question such expertise. The Heritage example sold for only $204,000, which is a modest advance over the last sale of $82,500 back in 1996.

The culture in American coins is strikingly different. American collectors seem to prize errors. A brockage is an error coin where one side is normal, but the other side instead of the reverse displays the obverse again, but incuse or in a negative mirror-like form. Brockage errors are caused when an already minted coin sticks to the coin die and impresses onto another blank pressing a mirror image of the other coin into the blank.

Brockage errors coins are rare. However, they do not bring significant premiums. A nice Augustus(27BC-14AD) denarius may bring $1,000+ whereas the Brokage will bring about $500 as illustrated above. Here is an extremely rare official Roman die of Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD) with precisely this problem of a silver denarius stuck to the reverse die.

This die of Tiberius is UNIQUE and was discarded because of the brokage error coins it would have produced which would have appeared like the Augustus denarius illustrated above. There are only about 12 official Roman dies that have survived.

Here is Another genuine Roman die of an extremely rare Emperor Gordian I (238AD) who reigned for only 21 days. Obviously, this die was discarded because he did not last in office very long.

There is a completely different culture outside of American coins. Such an error would never bring such premiums. In ancient coins, the premiums attained are for high quality.

The Coming Launch of Socrates


QUESTION: Marty,
Back in 2015 when they closed the Chicago MERC after 167 years, you did a piece about how flashing screens do not provide the same “feel” as tape watching and floor trading. You also mentioned in that piece that “after Socrates, you will recreate something you always wanted to do” in relation to bringing “feel” back into trading.
My question is; given all the directions you are being pulled- is this still something you aspire to undertake?
I grew up tape watching, and despise blinking screens…it’s a lost art and would welcome anything you might undertake in this area.
Rw

ANSWER: Absolutely. We are getting ready for the first launch very soon. The intention is to expand the system to intraday. We are in negotiations with a data-provider to make the system live intraday with reversals and timing on an hourly basis. Trust me. It has been this initial launch that has been delayed by banks changing rules causing us to have to re-write the payment systems three times. Then we have completely different rules for outside North America so it required then setting up another whole new payment system. Then we have been having to set up yet a third for China. This has all been driven by this Hunt for Taxes.

It will be that intraday version that will be sound. Also in Phase-Two of our launch, we will be looking at providing a download version that will link back into our system so you can just talk to it and it will answer. We just cannot do that level of sophistication over the internet.

Why Bright Scientists Still Stumble in Darkness


Published on Jan 7, 2019

SUBSCRIBED 120K

As the new year turns, scientists offer a new marvel from the limit of the solar system. But the limits of human wisdom constrain them as well. Why do we assume that our great achievements, guarantee specific future achievements…like controllable artificial intelligence? Right Angle is a production of Members who contribute so they can share these conversations with the world. Become a Member today at http://BillWhittle.space/subscribe

Fake Science, Exposed by Sharyl Attkisson.


This investigative report may lead you to question much of what you hear and read about scientific and medical studies. It’s a cautionary note issued by respected industry leaders who say unseen interests are exerting enormous control over research and what is– or isn’t– published. Their startling claim: that a large percentage of articles in prestigious medical journals are simply not to be believed. We begin with Dr. Marcia Angell of Harvard, a pioneer in the medical journal field.

Dr. Marcia Angell: I think physicians and the public have come to believe that drugs are much better and much safer than they really are.

What makes Dr. Marcia Angell’s skepticism so remarkable is where she places much of the blame: on researchers and medical journals. That includes the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine, where she worked for 20 years and was its first female Editor in Chief from 1999 to 2000.

Sharyl: Most people probably think an article is in a journal, probably written at a university based on independent study, and that’s that.

Angell: It used to be that way, as you describe it, pretty simple, and it began to change as the pharmaceutical industry became richer, more powerful, more influential, and began to take over the sponsorship of probably most clinical research.

http://fullmeasure.news/news/cover-story/fake-science-08-06-2017

Product Review on PC Matic


While watching Fox News a while back I started seeing ads for PC Matic now and then and since I was not happy with the existing system I had and the subscription was over in December 2018 I decided to check out PC Matic in November.  I found a lot of good reviews and the price was right so I decided to make the switch.  Just for reference I have been on PC’s since  the introduction of the IBM PC AT back in the early 80’s way before windows when everything was command line.  So I have used over the years just about every protection package that there was.  PC Matic was the easiest to install by far, there was no system I have ever used that was as easy to install as PC Matic’s product lines, and the service they provide is top of the line!

Here is their website … check them out!

http://www.pcpitstop.com/